Baltimore v Rays

Millwood pitches better in regular play than spring training

Rays have had plenty of pre-season hype and the public cant shovel enough money on them. But they are way too short at 1.49. Millwood is a decent pitcher and the O's upset the Yankees in their season-opener last year. Id be tempted to lay the Rays at that price.

The Rays are 1.53 to win su.

Road favourites, when they win the game, win by more than 1 run 79% of the time. So if you must bet short favourites on the road, bet the runline.

Uncle Joe has the Rays available at 2.15 on the Runline.

eH,? tHE rAYS ARE AT HOME

So they are, my apologies. Very embarrassing. I put it down to old age, opening day excitement and stupidity!

If you're still interested in my ideas; the home favourite's relevant stats drop to 70%, so the bet becomes less attractive from that point of view.

As for pure analysis, Millwood doesn't do well at Tropicana Field and stunk it up in Spring training. In contrast, Tampa Bay have been ripping it up. With Roberts banged up, if I was to bet the game, I'd probably still take the Rays on the runline, but maybe not for the full £2.

Millwood has a 6+ ERA in Tampa, where as Shields is usually an ace at home. There are worse 1.5 shots about.

My ridiculously complicated spreadsheet predicted Tampa to be 1.51 so I agree the odds are about right. Minnesota are my bet of the night.

rays look too short to me and have laid 1.5

Have to be on the Rays even at that price ....agree that Shields should provide a commanding performance at home

1-0 O's Adam Jones solo jack

Shields pitch count is high already

cant believe im able to lay off my 3.0 back at 2.0 with just a 1 run lead

Baltimore (K Millwood)

£128.52

Tampa Bay (J Shields)

£0.00

its great baseball innit sb :D

love it

base runners for rays

oooh thrown out at home

2-0 O's Luke Scott solo jack

nice

chasing Shields out of the game

I've given up on my TB-1.5 bet. :(

you aint seen the O's bullpen yet

2nd and 3rd, 0 outs :D

hate popups

Evening, just laid some balt at 1.3s, far too low with whats to come pitching wise!


boom red sox lead 3-1!

what a chance gone there for balt to bust it open

2nd and 3rd, 0 outs and nothing lol

Thats when i laid swindon, with men on 2nd and 3rd reckon at 4-0 they should be 1.25 so not giving away to much esp if they didn't score ;-)

yeah i wasn't watching market tut

shields has thrown 75 pitches already, they usually only throw between 90-100 pitches on their first couple of starts

1-2

another solo jack

3-1

rays lucky that these home runs have only cost them 1run a time. Think they will still win this. Yankees lead the redsox 4-3 now.

Ok now I've given up on the -1.5. Thought TB might have had a chance after that last inning but that's probably just done it in. :(

95 pitches and Shields is still in there! Get him out!

2-3

this is what rays backers want to see,millwood being spoken too,get that BP in :D

big inning on the way

Double play, the worst possible outcome. :(

7th and 8th key innings for the rays, O's closer can get the job done

Rays really are appalling!

rays do the biz finally!

lol what a disgrace BO are though, 2nd and 3rd 0 outs in the 9th and cant pick up any runs deserve to get stung by a walk off

cost me plenty**s

Note to self: Don't bet on HCs.

I think I told myself the same thing last year, wish I had the guts to back TB at 6 rather than the measly 2.58 to cover my HC loss. :(

Well done the winners that had faith all along, I know I certainly didn't. :)