New Posts For Thread: ok, ive a question,https://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28664705/ok-ive-a-questionif approx 23 thousand approx, pepole give there pick on a nfl game, (yahoo sports)and say 88% pick the 49ers and 12% pick redskins, based on a 100% would it be fair to say the 49ers@ 88%favs equating to a 1/7 shot, wlol ... give me a break, it was a late night!https://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28664705/ok-ive-a-question?post_id=512266259#512266259lol ... give me a break, it was a late night!Mon, 07 Nov 2011 08:52:51 -0600Here's a thread from last seasonhttp://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/25921121/consensus-nfl-week-3-picks?pg=1https://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28664705/ok-ive-a-question?post_id=512265195#512265195Here's a thread from last seasonhttp://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/25921121/consensus-nfl-week-3-picks?pg=1Mon, 07 Nov 2011 08:23:27 -0600eh ... yeah, the filter was 70%That's why I posted all the results for > 70% above!I don't agree with the thinking though. It only works if the line is moved sufficiently IMO. In most cases the line isn't moved enough for a play against the Public tohttps://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28664705/ok-ive-a-question?post_id=512265117#512265117eh ... yeah, the filter was 70%That's why I posted all the results for > 70% above!I don't agree with the thinking though. It only works if the line is moved sufficiently IMO. In most cases the line isn't moved enough for a play against the Public toMon, 07 Nov 2011 08:21:15 -0600Jimmy K sounds about right, nice one I think he had a filter too, didn't he, dlarssonf? It had to be above a certain percentage.https://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28664705/ok-ive-a-question?post_id=512264907#512264907Jimmy K sounds about right, nice one I think he had a filter too, didn't he, dlarssonf? It had to be above a certain percentage.Mon, 07 Nov 2011 08:14:28 -0600The Public is currently 13-12-1 where the Consensus is > 70% this yearGames are:Week 1 (2-2)CLE (-6.5) vs CIN - The Public LostARI (-6.5) vs CAR - WonATL (-1.0) @ CHI - LostNE (-7.0) @ MIA - WonWeek 2 (1-2-1)PIT (-13.5) vs SEA - WonGB (-10.5) @ CARhttps://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28664705/ok-ive-a-question?post_id=512262007#512262007The Public is currently 13-12-1 where the Consensus is > 70% this yearGames are:Week 1 (2-2)CLE (-6.5) vs CIN - The Public LostARI (-6.5) vs CAR - WonATL (-1.0) @ CHI - LostNE (-7.0) @ MIA - WonWeek 2 (1-2-1)PIT (-13.5) vs SEA - WonGB (-10.5) @ CARMon, 07 Nov 2011 06:45:14 -0600yeah orioles, Jimmy K I think was the usernamehttps://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28664705/ok-ive-a-question?post_id=512224179#512224179yeah orioles, Jimmy K I think was the usernameSun, 06 Nov 2011 11:03:05 -0600Didn't we once run the consensus bets?I seem to remember the forum doing it one year.https://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28664705/ok-ive-a-question?post_id=512223653#512223653Didn't we once run the consensus bets?I seem to remember the forum doing it one year.Sun, 06 Nov 2011 10:50:35 -060022000 people gave there opinion...not all bet on this eventhttps://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28664705/ok-ive-a-question?post_id=512220015#51222001522000 people gave there opinion...not all bet on this eventSun, 06 Nov 2011 09:19:51 -0600ok, i take ur point, thankshttps://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28664705/ok-ive-a-question?post_id=512214519#512214519ok, i take ur point, thanksSun, 06 Nov 2011 06:56:01 -0600It's not the right way to work it out.If everyone knows there's a 51% chance of something happening, then 100% of them should pick it to happen (assuming no other incentives or handicaps)https://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28664705/ok-ive-a-question?post_id=512209303#512209303It's not the right way to work it out.If everyone knows there's a 51% chance of something happening, then 100% of them should pick it to happen (assuming no other incentives or handicaps)Sun, 06 Nov 2011 02:19:47 -0600