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Contrarian Handicapping

Wolverhampton 7.40 Thoughts

25 Nov 11 10:31
Good morning.
Well Wednesday was a wipeout with not one return from the six selections ! Mac Love went closest of all finishing well to just be touched off for 3rd at 25/1 :(

Hopefully I can retrieve some points tonight.
The 7.40 looks a fair race for a class 4 and the two I've gome for are My Kingdom & Isleman.

My Kingdom has joined Ian Williams whose runners are in fantastic form so I'm hoping the change of scenery will benefit My Kingdom.
He's become very well handicapped for a stop start season but has some very decent form in better races on turf. Although yet to win further than 7f I feel he may get this longer trip round here and all his best form is around tight turning tracks so Wolves should be right up his street. Off a good mark and with plenty in his favour, if he gets the trip 20/1 looks a big price.

Another who looks overpriced to me anyway is Isleman at 11/1.
He's not had much luck on his last two runs at all at Kempton since beating Loyalty there and then being disqualified. He's won at the course and feel he is a real tryer and the extra 1/2 a furlong should help tonight. He looks like he could end up being a lot better and as a 3yr old has scope for more improvement than most.

MY KINGDOM 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)

ISLEMAN 1 POINT E/W AT 11/1 (BOG)
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Good morning.
Two very decent races on the all weather today considering it's a Wednesday.

Lingfield 3.15

I have a feeling that this could throw up a strange result as there is no obvious front runner from the principals but one that caught the eye at a huge prioce was Mawaakef who had some very decent form at 2 including a 2nd to Casamento. It's fair to say this year hasn't followed suit. He's joined his new stable with one run over an inadequate 7f. This looks more his trip and his mark looks fair.
The stable are in very good form and Joe Fanning is booked. He could well get an easy lead I think and may be able to steal this if that's the plan !

If it's not then Hanoverian Baron and Mull Of Killough would be the dangers although there are plenty with chances here.

MAWAAKEF 1 POINT E/W AT 33/1 SKYBET

HANOVERIAN BARON 1 POINT E/W AT 6/1 (BOG)

MULL OF KILLOUGH 2 POINTS WIN AT 9/2 (BOG)

Kempton 6.35

Riggins was obviously a tempter but feel the race could throw up an outsider today.

Mac Love won this race back in 2008 and is now back with Roger Chartlton. It wouldn't be a suprise to see a good run despite reaching 10yrs of age and feel he is worth a try.

Bravo Echo ran just 7 days ago with a reasonable 5th off a break and was carried left. He won a decent conditions race here over the C/D and was eased down. If in that form today and from stall 14 he could go well.

Off the radar at 50/1 is Sos Brillante who shouldn't win at the figures but has actually done fairly well for his new stable on his two recent runs and didn't get the best of runs last time. Maybe this is a big ask but he was once rated quite highly and feel he could pinch a place at a monster price.

MAC LOVE 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (BOG)

BRAVO ECHO 1 POINT E/W AT 18/1 (BOG)

SOS BRILLANTE 1 POINT E/W AT 50/1 (BOG)

ALL STAKES 12 POINTS   
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Results update

20 Nov 11 12:10
Good morning.

Just an update to recent results and returns.

Since the last update 22 points have been staked and 32.2 points returned to improve things a little.
The turf season has come to an end and it's on to the All weather where
a good start has been made thanks to Riggins at 16/1 and Defence Council went agonisingly close last night at 16/1 as well !
Selections of 2 or 3 per race continue in profit and I hope I will be able to turn the overall loss into a profit come February which will see a year of the blog gone ! It's been a rollercoaster ride so far.

STAKES 22 POINTS

RETURNS MASS RALLY 6 POINTS 3RD AT 20/1

        RIGGINS 22 POINTS 1ST AT 16/1

        DEFENCE COUNCIL 4.2 POINTS 2ND AT 16/1 (BOG)

        TOTAL RETURNS 32.2 POINTS

        TOTAL PROFIT 10.2 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 367 POINTS
OVERALL RETURNS 341.76 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS - 25.24 POINTS

2/3 SELECTIONS +17.26 POINTS (29/57)   
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Wolverhampton 5.50 picks

19 Nov 11 12:09
Good afternoon.
I've got to be brief today but a strong pace looks on the cards and may suit the two selections

WHOZETHECAT 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)

DEFENCE COUNCIL 1 POINT E/W AT 11/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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Good evening.
I may have a slight bias having supported Riggins on his last two runs but I feel my heart is not leading my head.

Riggins is 3/3 on polytrack at Wolverhampton, Great Leighs and Kempton aside from an ill fated trip to Meydan.

I really do feel he has had no luck this year and has never really had his ground apart from the Cambridgeshire where he got no run at all.
Considering he won a Listed race last year at Kempton (dead heat) off 101 he returns to Polytrack off a mark of 94 !
16/1 just looks wrong to me and he looks worth an e/w try.

RIGGINS 1 POINT EACH WAY AT 16/1 LADBROKES (BOG)
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Doncaster 3.10

05 Nov 11 11:00
Good morning.

Just the one selection today in the November handicap.
Enroller took my eye, who is is on a decent mark, should like the ground and trip and comes here relatively fresh.

A number of firms are paying out on the first five and that looks worth a go.

ENROLLER 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG FIRST FIVE)
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Saturday selections

22 Oct 11 10:19
Good morning.

Hopefully can go one better than yesterday although Mass Rally returned all the points staked with a good 3rd at 20/1.

Doncaster 2.00

Singeur was a selection last week when making the frame at Catterick and feel he can go well again today. That 3rd last week took his overall 5f record to 2111144431123 which reads very well.
I feel he is overpriced today again at 16/1.

Cocktail Charlie was a good 4th in that Catterick race last week and he could well go well again. Verinco won the race on the far side and feel these two have been underestimated today.

Finally at a huge 50/1 I feel Piscean is also worth a try.
He has probably needed his last two runs off a break but is well treated on some of his best form and could well sneak into the places
if on a going day.

A few firms are again paying the first 5 places and shall be taking up the offer.

SINGEUR 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG FIRST 5)

COCKTAIL CHARLIE 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG FIRST 5)

PISCEAN 1 POINT E/W AT 50/1 (BOG FIRST 5)

Over at Newbury Right Step who almost did me a favour back at York looks worth a try at 20/1 in the 3.45

RIGHT STEP 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 8 POINTS


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Doncaster 3.45 picks

21 Oct 11 11:20
Good morning,

A cracking class 2 6f sprint at Doncaster today where plenty have chances. At the prices I've gone for three today and Ladbrokes are very kindly paying out on the first five places.

R Woody was a pick back in the summer at York but ran down the field and was then given a break after that and it appears that York run is best forgiven. He returned wuth a good 5th over an inadequate 5f at Leicester which was much more like it and feel today he will go well at a very big price. The ground should be in his favour with a bit of cut left in the ground. He is 2/3 on g/s over 6f and was a decent 7th here at listed level last year just behind Macs Power and Kaldoun Kingdom at level weights. He comes here fresher than most in the field which could be in hIs favour and with a decent run last time could will suprise at 20/1. He is on a decent mark and has done well in big fields before.

Mass Rally who has repaid some faith here when grabbing 5th at Ayr at 33/1 is given another go at the prices. He was just touched off last time and hopefully can go one better today again at a big price.

Finally Elusivity boasts some very strong form with a 2nd to Sirius Prospect last time out and looks to be still improving and is very consistent.

R WOODY 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG FIRST 5)

MASS RALLY 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG FIRST 5)

ELUSIVITY 2 POINTS WIN AT 7/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS
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Good morning.

Just a update on latest results and returns.

The Cambridgesgire drew a blank although Nice Style ran well albeit out of the money and he should go well on the All Weather over the winter.

Ermine Lodge ran a cracker in the Ces to be 2nd at 16/1, to be beaten by an inspired Frankie Dettori ride ! :(

The Catterick dash bought a well backed winner in Verinco and Singeur also gained some points in 3rd.

Overall the blog is still in minus figures but the 2 or 3 selections per race strategy continues to hold its own overall at +23.06 with returns in 27 races from 54 attempts.

TOTAL STAKES 26 POINTS

TOTAL RETURNS 20.03 POINTS

ERMINE LODGE 5 POINTS 2ND AT 16/1

VERINCO 10.43 POINTS 1ST AT 15/2 (R4)

SINGEUR 4.6 POINTS 3RD AT 16/1 (R4)

TOTAL LOSS - 5.97 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 345 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 309.56 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -35.44 POINTS

2/3 SELECTIONS +23.06 POINTS (27/54)

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Weekender picks

14 Oct 11 22:57
Good evening.
Keep this short and sweet as it's a half term week with plenty to do.

CATTERICK 2.55

VERINCO 1 POINT E/W AT 15/2

SINGEUR 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1

ASCOT 4.45

MR DAVID 1 POINT E/W AT 50/1 (FIRST FIVE)

THE CONFESSOR 1 POINT E/W AT 12/1 (FIRST FIVE)

TOTAL STAKES 8 POINTS

Thankyou and goodnight.
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