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Contrarian Handicapping
Good morning !

It's a return from a break here with hopefully battery's recharged and a better year than the first one on the blog which recorded a loss of 53.24 points from 413 points invested and 359.76 points returned overall. A few lessons learnt from that year including not putting up 14 point patents !
The turf season is getting into gear now and the first pick runs in the 1.35 at Newbury today in the shape of Lui Rei.
He has a very good record first time out and off long breaks, albeit for old connections but feel today could be the day to catch him. He's well handicapped,and feel this trip on todays ground could well suit him. Jim Crowley is booked and has a good record for the stable and Lui Rei has ran very well the two occasions he's been aboard.It's a shame about the non runner to take the field down to 7 but do feel he can go very close today.

LUI REI 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (VARIOUS BOG)   
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Saturday picks (no waffle)

20 Jan 12 21:19
Good evening.

Tomorrows picks with no waffle.

Lingfield 3.00

1 POINT E/W FRATELLINO AT 6/1 (PADDY POWER BOG)

1 POINT E/W STREET POWER AT 33/1 (CORAL)

Lingfield 3.35

1 POINT E/W ZACYNTHUS AT 33/1 (LADBROKES/PADDY POWER)

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS

 
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Good evening.

You wait for those 25/1 shots and two come along at once in the same race !

Layline was the first selection here for the blog and obliged at 16/1 but things haven't been quite as straight forward since !

But I like his chances tomorrow in the 1.00 clock at Lingfield.
He more than likely needed the run last time as he has never ran well off a long break aside from his first ever run. He won the mentioned race above over the C/D off tomorrow's mark in good style in February of last year beating a decent field.His overall course form over 8 & 10f reads 2313010. The two 0's were a Group 3 and last time out off a break. 25/1 looks a huge price on his history and Robert Winston is booked who has figures of 301 on him. With excellent course form in the grade and a good mark and a number of positives he looks well worth a e/w try again.

Another at the same price in the race is  Honey Of A Kitten who ran a fair race for new connections off another break when 4th to Opus Maximus over 9.5f at Wolverhampton and was going on at the end of that race. He came back out last time over 8f at the course but looked like the trip was much to sharp. That run looks worth forgiving on the strength of his 4th and 10f looks far more suitable.He looks to have some scope off a mark of 80 and at another big price looks worth a try.   

LAYLINE 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (LADBROKES BOG)

HONEY OF A KITTEN 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (HILLS/365 BOG)

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Good evening, I thought I'd post early as time is not on my side tomorrow and I feel an overnight price could also be best.
Calypso Magic was a selection on his last run at Wolverhampton. It was a fair effort off a long break at Class 2 level and a drop in grade,mark and trip could all help tomorrow on his second run for new connections. Another factor in his favour is that he will be going right handed which given previous form may also be a positive.
From a trading point of view you could also see him being a good back to lay if that's your thing as he is highly likely to be at the fore from the outset. He has competition for that from the Balding stable but feel he could well get the run of the race and keep his nose in front to the line. Well that's the plan in my head !

CALYPSO MAGIC 1 POINT E/W AT 10/1 (BOG HILLS/LADBROKES)   
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Results and returns

08 Jan 12 08:08
Good morning.
The blog continues in a loss overall with the first year coming up in February.2 or 3 selections per race continue to hold up with a small profit overall. Mantoba ran a great race to be a very close 3rd at 40/1
recently which would of helped ! Fratellino ran a cracker yesterday off such a lengthy break to finish 2nd to Oasis Dancer at 16/1.
I've lost count of the number of big priced 2nd's but there's been a few ! I still rue the day I thought a 14 point patent was a good idea   :-( Still you live and learn and hopefully 2012 will bring better things here. We shall see.

TOTAL STAKES 34 POINTS

TOTAL RETURNS 18 POINTS

PENDRAGON N/R 2 POINTS

MANTOBA 3RD AT 40/1 (BOG) 11 POINTS

FRATELLINO 2ND AT 16/1 5 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -16 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 401 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 359.76 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS - 41.24 POINTS

2/3 SELECTIONS RACES +5.26 POINTS (32/63) 
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Lingfield 2.45 Thoughts

07 Jan 12 08:00
Good morning and a Happy New Year !

Mantoba almost bought the blog back to respectability when only just going down at the finish and ending up with a 40/1 SP !Still, it wasn't to be and I battle on.

The 2.45 looks a great race with Oasis Dancer very popular having been available at 7/2 last night and now as short as 9/4. He has great claims but I shall settle for two at much bigger prices who are not without a chance on their best form.

Fratellino looks overpriced at 16/1 and he ran very well on his last start albeit 251 days ago ! That run reads very well but there have clearly been problems. However I feel he could go well with his reappearance runs reading 157. The 5th and 7th were here over 7 & 5 furlongs and he showed plenty of speed over the 7f to lead for a long way but the 5f run was probably to sharp for him now.He starts the year off 91 which looks fair enough and feel today he is worth a try. Googlette should give him a good tow into the race from outer and feel he could be in a good position come the turn from stall 1.

Norville is my second choice and thoughts are very similar to the Timeform view as he should be match fit again now after a short break. Perhaps a more patient ride will be given as well from stall 11 ?
At 22/1 he looks worth a go

FRATELLINO 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)(HILLS/365)

NORVILLE 1 POINT E/W AT 22/1 (CORAL)   

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Lingfield 2.20 Musings

16 Dec 11 22:26
Good evening.
The blog overall is struggling since Riggins obliged so a winner would be most welcome at a decent price. I really do feel that those at a single figure price for this all look worth opposing for various reaons
so I shall go for two at double figures.

Firstly Lyssio who does look to have been overlooked in the betting and had some very decent form in Germany. This type can often go overlooked and overpriced and I feel catching him first time here is well worth a try. The stables runners are also going well at the minute and the trip looks most suitable.

Secondly Mantoba who had some excellent form last year before being very highly tried. He came back off a long break in October to run a fair 4th to Inler and Secrecy over 8f and then ran out the back over 10f on heavy ground in France when blinkered.
10f on a sound surface might be much more suitable and with just 7 runs to date has time to turn things back around,hopefully tomorrow !

LYSSIO 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (1/5TH BOG)HILLS

MANTOBA 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (1/4 BOG)VC

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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Wolverhampton 8.20 Thoughts

09 Dec 11 22:04
Good evening,
Ceremonial Jade was an eyecatcher last time out although he didn't repay the outlay I feel he is worth looking out for.

A decent class 2 at Wolves for Saturday night and am going three pronged.

Calypso Magic looks overpriced at 20/1 as he could well get a easy lead on his first start for his new stable and has gone well off a break before. He won on his reappearance at Musselburgh and then ran a cracker to be 2nd to Glen's Diamond next time who subsquently won a Group 3 race ! Not so good after that but is only 3 and looks well worth a try with a jockey booked who is going great guns at the minute.

If he goes to fast and sets it up for a closer then Pendragon and Fattsota both from in form stables could benefit at the odds.

CALYPSO MAGIC 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)
PENDRAGON 1 POINT E/W AT 11/1 (BOG)
FATTSOTA 1 POINT E/W AT 9/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS
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Good evening.

He's not quite in the same shape as Riggins but Ceremonial Jade looks worth a go at 25/1 with Billy's tomorrow night at Wolverhampton in the 7.20.
Over 7f on polytrack at any course his form reads 11023413133000.
He is 1/1 over the C/D at listed level off 105. Since that win he has largely struggled off similar marks but has slowly dropped to what is a decent mark of 93 with a 7lb claim to further reduce things against inexperience. The break is not to much of a concern as earlier in his career his figures were 1221 off a 60+ break until a rising mark put a stop to that. What really takes the eye besides Ceremonial Jade's mark/form/trip/grade etc is that the stable are in flying form with 13 of 22 of their last runners making the frame with 4 winning. Their last 4 runners have ran 1221.
Of course he may not be quite the force of old but at 25/1 I feel he is well worth a try at 25/1 given the above.

CEREMONIAL JADE 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (HILLS BOG)
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Lingfield 3.40 selection

29 Nov 11 06:52
Good morning at this early hour.

A decent 6f sprint today at Lingfield and at the prices I'm trying Dozy Joe who has ran well off a break before, has gone well on the polytrack in the past and has scope for more to offer. The blinker/tongue strap are used for the first time today which hopefully will be a positive.

DOZY JOE 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)
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