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Contrarian Handicapping
Good Morning.
Just posting my selections today as very busy day today.

LINGFIELD 2.00

LUI REI 1 POINT E/W AT 18/1 (BOG)

ROWE PARK 1 POINT E/W AT 9/1 (BOG)


KEMPTON 4.40

MAC GILLE EOIN 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS.

Goodbye !
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Good morning.

As much as I would like to pick Webb Simpson this week I just feel that the last hole bogey last week will have had an effect and have decided that I shall give him a miss this week despite his excellent form.So he will probably win now !

As mentioned previously Webb Simpson became a first time dad recently and was one main reason for picking him in recent tournaments. Strangely enough my first pick this week is another new dad in Brandt Snedeker who withdrew from the Honda as his wife had gone into labour.
Since becoming a new dad he came back to finish an excellent 4th last week at the Transitions so although it seems a bizzare way of making selections it seems to work wonders on improving play !
Snedeker stands at 7th in the All Around Rankings and putting average. He also has a very decent record at this event having finished 30/17/14/22 in his four outings at the event.
Two top ten finishes earlier in the year to add to last weeks 4th and feel this week he is well worth a try.

My second  selection is Chad Campbell, who won this back in 2004 and also has a very decent overall record here. He has posted two very respectable efforts recently and stands at 7th in the ball striking stats.
If he can get the putting going this week he could go well at a three figure price. He should be hitting plenty of greens as he stands 10th in that sphere overall and he looks to be working his way into form.

I've also decided to have a try at the first round leader this week and feel I've found a player who could go well at 100/1. He stands at 10th in the first round scoring average this year and hit a 65 in the opening round of this event back in 2008 and a 68 in 2009. He's had some fair results this year with a recent 20th last week at the Transitions. Step forward JJ Henry !! I can't see him winning the event but feel he could well get off to a great start and 100/1 e/w looks overpriced given the above.

STAKES

OUTRIGHT

BRANDT SNEDEKER 1 POINT WIN AT 60 (EXCHANGE ODDS)
                1 POINT PLACE AT 12/1 (STAN JAMES)                     

CHAD CAMPBELL   1 POINT WIN AT 130 (EXCHANGE ODDS)
                1 POINT TOP TEN PLACE AT 9/1 (STAN JAMES)                 

FIRST ROUND LEADER

JJ HENRY 1 POINT E/W AT 100/1 (SKYBET)

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS
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Good morning.
Webb Simpson almost produced a huge return for the blog but in the end had to settle for 2nd place and a return on the top ten finish of 9 points.
It was a great effort over the 4 days and he looks more than capable of winning on the tour despite the final hole score.
He traded at odds on towards the finish so there were great trading opportunity's to be had on the win market.
I'm not a great fan of aftertiming so for blog purposes will  just record the top ten place return but obviously there was potential to increase that return by trading.

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS

TOTAL RETURNS 9 POINTS TOP TEN PLACE

TOTAL PROFIT 5 POINTS *

OVERALL STAKES 39 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 51.4 POINTS

OVERALL PROFIT 12.4 POINTS
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Good morning.

My previous selection Webb Simpson is out again this week and I'm supporting him again to build on his excellent start to the year.He finished a very creditable 13th in the tournament last year which makes me feel he can go well this year along with his good current form.
Early starts on the course will be no problem for the first time dad and feel he could at least get into the top ten here.

My other selection is Kenny Perry at a monster price.

He stands at 9th in the ball striking tables and has a fair average finish record at this tournament and for a multiple winner, excellent ball striker with good course form is a huge price.He came in 43rd at the Honda after two missed cuts. His problems have been " his eyesight has been getting bad " he reports.
However he has been to see the Transitions vision expert Dr Lampert this week to be fitted with new lenses which will hopefully improve things so he can actually see the hole when he arrives at the green !

I can see great copy for the sponsors if Kenny comes across the line 1st on Sunday and hopefully I won't need binoculars myself to see where he is on the leaderboard this week.

WEBB SIMPSON 1 POINT WIN AT 160 (EXCHANGE ODDS)

             1 POINT TOP TEN PLACE 8/1

KENNY PERRY  1 POINT WIN AT 328 (EXCHANGE ODDS)

             1 POINT TOP 5 PLACE AT 33/1

             TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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Stakes/Returns 12/3/2011

13 Mar 11 10:16
A poor day with just Jimmy Styles returning 3 points with a 3rd place at 10/1.
Elna Bright and Desert Creek were dissapointing.
Prince Of Dance ran as if needing the run but feel he is one to keep an eye on.
Jack My Boy didn't lead and didn't do as well as expected even without the blinkers on.

TOTAL STAKES 10 POINTS
RETURNS 3 POINTS
LOSS -7 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 35 POINTS
OVERALL RETURNS 42.4 POINTS
OVERALL PROFIT +7.4 POINTS
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Good evening.
I've gone in early for tomorrows Wolverhampton meeting.
A few brief thoughts on all selections.

Jack My Boy.

Gone well fresh before, could well get run of the race. Jockey has 26% strike rate for the stable on the all weather and preferred to the stables other runner.

Jimmy Styles.

Should be match fit after two runs at Meydan and runs here off a winnable mark with the stables runners going well.


Prince Of Dance.

Another nice handicap mark for new stable in good form.
Beat Prime Exhibit into 2nd over Salisburys 8f giving 3lb at class 2 handicap level along with the winner of last years race Vitznau :).
Gone well fresh before.

Elna Bright.

Ran much better than finishing positions suggest of late. Ideal trip and could go really well from a decent draw sitting behind a strong pace.

Desert Creek.

Interesting new recruit to the Nicholls stable, another who has gone well fresh before. Ideal trip and not without a chance.

STAKES

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.10

ELNA BRIGHT 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (BOG)

DESERT CREEK 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.20

PRINCE OF DANCE 1 POINT E/W AT 18/1 (BOG)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.25

JACK MY BOY 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)

JIMMY STYLES 1 POINT E/W AT 10/1

TOTAL STAKES 10 POINTS
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If form worked out,if speed figures were always right, if pace figures panned out we would all be winners !
Nothing is certain however much people think it will be.

Taking a different view can be a challenge at times  but I believe it is the way to make a profit in the long term. Despite markets becoming more efficient there are still opportunity's to find as markets are generated by the masses usually following a standard procedure to arrive at a set of prices. By looking outside of those standards and taking an alternative approach to pricing a market some great opportunity's appear.Sometimes you have to be very patient which is probably the most difficult thing to overcome as you are bombarded with endless events to part you from your money !

TBC..........






All thoughts and comments welcome
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Good morning.

Webb Simpson was unable to grab the top ten place but I feel he may well be a player to look out for this year
as it was a creditable effort on a tough course.

STAKES 5 POINTS

RETURNS 0

LOSS 5 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 25 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 39.4 POINTS

OVERALL PROFIT 14.4 POINTS
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Good evening.

Everyone is expecting a European victory so I've gone for two American's !

Webb Simpson has started the year well and his most recent finish was an excellent 8th.
Stats wise he fits the type of player who has done well at this tough course.
Excellent ball striker, good par 4 record, good accurate driver, in form and looks to be progressing from
a good finish to 2010.
But the most relevant event is that he has just become a dad for the first time !
This is more important than all of the above.
I can see him starting really well but a little concerned whether he can keep it going for four days.

He looks well worth a try this week. If he manages to win expect references to miracles/god/jesus judging by the twitter profile !

Boo Weekly really should have won this event back in 2007.
He leads the way in ball striking this year and total driving which are good assets for this week.
I can see him going well this week over the four days on a course he has done well at back in 07 and his game should suit the course.

WEBB SIMPSON           OUTRIGHT MARKET
             
             1 POINT WIN AT 226 (AVERAGE ODDS ON HERE)
             1 POINT TOP TEN PLACE AT 14/1

                      FIRST ROUND LEADER

             1 POINT WIN AT 134 (AVERAGE ODDS ON HERE)


BOO WEEKLY   

                      OUTRIGHT MARKET

             1 POINT WIN AT 120 (AVERAGE ODDS ON HERE)
             1 POINT TOP FIVE PLACE AT 20/1


             TOTAL STAKES 5 POINTS

Updates to follow !
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A case of seconditis today with two of the four selections occupying that spot.
All four selections ran pretty well really with Anne Of Kiev just failing by a neck to catch Waveband.

STAKES 8 POINTS

RETURNS

ANNE OF KIEV 2ND AT 12/1 (BPG) 3.4 POINTS

RESENTFUL ANGEL 2ND AT 10/1 3 POINTS

LOSS ON DAY - 1.6 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 20 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 39.4 POINTS

OVERALL PROFIT + 19.4 POINTS
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