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Contrarian Handicapping
Well no returns from Fridays selections or the two selections for the Spring Cup yesterday although Leviathan ran a race of promise in 7th and feel he could win a decent handicap this year.

Run For The Hills kept on for 5th in the sprint on Friday but does look a difficult ride. The talent is there but
perhaps blinkers or a visor are needed.

So not the greatest start to the turf season here but a few promising runs from some of the selections for the future.

TOTAL STAKES FRIDAY/SATURDAY 8 POINTS
RETURNS 0 (NONE/ZERO/NOTHING)
TOTAL LOSS - 8 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 77 POINTS
RETURNS 63.2 POINTS
OVERALL LOSS -13.8 POINTS
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Good evening.

No joy in the 4.55 today and I seem to be taking time to warm up 3 races in to the flat season !

Onto the Spring Cup and I've managed to pick two highlighted runners in Leviathan & Greenfriarschorista.
I managed to get 33/1 on Greenfriarschorista and 20/1 Leviathan the first 5 both BOG.

Leviathan had some very decent form at three when with Tom Tate and formlines that run very closely with Eton Forever. That line gives him a great chance and feel he could go really well if running to that form.
He has changed stables since and starts the year off a very decent mark, ran well on his last start in a big field
and feel he is a much bigger price than his form of last year. He looks well worth a go and is unexposed at the trip.

Greyfriarschorista is another well in on his 3yr old form and obviously his 3rd in the Brittania a 8f straight course big field handicap. Despite tomorrows big field there doesn't seem to be many who like to race up with the pace and Greyfriarschorista (a long name to write!)may be well suited to this. He should be match fit with three all weather runs and just recently I read that Mark Johnston has a very good record when adding headgear to his older runners.

LEVIATHAN 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 THE FIRST 5

GREYFRIARSCHORISTA 1 POINT E/W AT 33/1 (NOW 25/1 BP)

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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Newbury 4.55 Selections

15 Apr 11 08:47
Good morning.

A excellent 5f class 2 sprint today and I really feel Run For The Hills
has an excellent chance reverting back to 5f at 16/1.
His one try at the trip was a 3rd at Listed level at Newmarket just behind
Noble Storm todays second favourite.He put in some fair efforts last year when with John Gosden and this free going sort could be ideally suited to a strong run 5f I feel. He's had two starts for his new stable, one wind operation and been gelded since his last run. He starts the year off 95 which looks a winning mark. The stable's Genkhi  won yesterday and I'm hoping Run For The Hills can also make a bright start.

Striking Spirit has ran 1/2 on his reappearance runs for Mr Nicholls and ran some great races last year over 6f at the top level in handicaps.
He has finished 2/2 over 5f at Musselburgh and feel this track may will suit better over 5f. He is on price, the stables second string but feel he has a decent chance and looks worth a try first time out.

RUN FOR THE HILLS 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)

STRIKING SPIRIT 1 POINT E/W AT 9/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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Good morning.

A creditable effort from Brandt Snedeker to finish 4 under but no returns from the 2 points invested.
He managed to get to 7 under in the third round until a triple bogey 7 at the 10th hole stopped the momentum !
Not a bad effort overall and could be worth keeping on the right side for the future.

STAKES 2 POINTS
RETURNS 0
LOSS -2 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 69 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 63.2 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS - 5.8 POINTS.

The flat season is slowly getting into gear so looking forward to getting involved in the top class handicaps as the season progresses while still keeping an eye out on the PGA tour and all weather racing.

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Good morning.

Brandt Snedeker was a selection a few weeks ago for the Arnold Palmer Invitational after an excellent 4th at the Transitions the week previously. However he misread the script there and opened up with an 80 and subsquently missed the cut !

It's always worth forgiving one bad outing and prior to that he had managed three top ten finishes this season with the latest an improving effort at the Transitions after the birth of his first son.
He currently stands at 11th in the All around rankings and 3rd in putting average which should stand him in good stead this week.
He has history at the Masters when going into the final round of 2008 in the final pairing only to shoot a 77 and finish 3rd. There were plenty of tears ! Hopefully he can play as well this year without the final round 77.
Here's a recent quote from him which sounds like he is very happy with where he is right now.


"I feel like it's the best I've hit it my whole career, to be honest with you," Snedeker said of his play this season. "I feel like every part of my game is a lot better than it was at any point in my career.

"I just can't quite seem to put it together for four rounds," he said. "That's the easy part. Now it's about playing golf, which is kind of nice when you don't have to go out there and work on your golf swing and worry about what's going on. Just go out there and score."

Overall I feel he has a fair chance this week at odds much bigger than his form,Masters 2008 effort and ratings suggest.

BRANDT SNEDEKER

1 POINT WIN AT 190 (EXCHANGE ODDS)

1 POINT PLACE AT 25/1


TOTAL STAKES 2 POINTS
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John Rollins failed to build on his great start and it was a wise move to lay at an early stage and he returned 5.8 points with the 6 point lay back.

The turf season did not get off to a flyer here and no points returned from the 10 invested at the weekend.

Of the five selections Cumulus Nimbus did not fare to badly in a race that wouldn't have suited and feel is more than capable of winning a decent race this year.

Breakheart couldn't cope with the drop back to 8f but feel he is another who could do well this year.

None of the other selections ran with any promise !!

SHELL HOUSTON

STAKES 6 POINTS

RETURNS 5.8 POINTS

LOSS - 0.2 POINTS

SATURDAY SELECTIONS

STAKES 10 POINTS

RETURNS 0 POINTS

LOSS -10 POINTS


OVERALL STAKES 67 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 63.2 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -3.8 POINTS.

Well the blog has gone into a small loss after getting off to a good start but not to down as it's early days and hopefully the loss can soon be turned around.
A number of selections have gone very close to some big returns at decent prices so am hopeful that a patient approach will be rewarded over the long term.
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Apologies once again for just the selections this week but the weekend is always a busy one with family so never have much opportunity to write as much as I'd like.
Anyway here we go and a number of selections are a lot shorter than I took earlier in the day.

DONCASTER 2.05

1 POINT E/W BREAKHEART at 20/1 (class 2 winner at 8f, gone well in big fields, proven in class)

1 POINT E/W CHAMPAGNE STYLE AT 66/1 ! (BOG)(good at 2, went off the rails at 3 ! could be well handicapped at 4 if back on the rails !)

KEMPTON 2.20

1 POINT E/W CUMULUS NIMBUS AT 8/1 (1/4 ODDS)(BOG)(won both reappearance runs at 2 & 3 and not out of this/stable in great form)

DONCASTER 3.10

1 POINT E/W PRINCE OF DANCE AT 40/1` (BOG) (Previous Lincoln trial selection and keeping the faith)

1 POINT E/W AL MUHEER AT 25/1 (BOG). (well handicapped and with the trainer who turns them around )
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Good morning.

I've found a player at 300/1 e/w for the 1st round leader today.!!
Should he be 300/1 ??
On the strength of last weeks opening round at the Arnold Palmer then yes as he shot a 78.
Prior to that though he has shot 4 opening rounds in the 60's and was the first round leader in the Northern Trust Open albeit with a whole host of others.He shot an opening round 65 in the Sony Open and a opening 66 last year in a PGA qualifying tournament when finishing 2nd overall.
Up to last week he was 8th in the round 1 scoring average.
Not bad for a player who turned pro just last year.
Clearly the first round is the time to catch him and feel at such a huge price he is worth an e/w try.

Please step forward Mr Ben Martin Happy

1 POINT E/W AT 300/1 FIRST ROUND LEADER MARKET

TOTAL STAKES 2 POINTS
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Good evening.




I've got one eye on the start of the flat season this week and the Lincoln but two players to catch the other eye turn out for the Shell Houston Open this weekend. Both have shown marked improvement on their most recent runs and one has an excellent record at the event in his two most recent attempts.




Step forward DJ Trahan, who most recently was an excellent 12th last week at the Arnold Palmer having missed the cut in his previous two events. He played four very solid rounds last week and is no stranger to winning on the Tour (twice) and once on the Nationwide. Last weeks effort was a strong piece of form and I feel he could go really well this week. His last two outings at this event have been an 11th at  7 under and a 8th at 11 under which are pretty impressive.

Hopefully he can improve on the momentum of last week and with excellent course form he looks a very decent price this week.




Secondly John Rollins also showed up a lot better on his most recent event with a 20th place at the Transistions, a big improvement on all his previous attempts this year. He stands at 8th in the ball striking stats and the same in eagles and total driving.  A three time winner on the Tour, he didn't have the greatest year in 2010 but when on song is a very decent player, especially tee to green and he looks a huge price worth a try this week.




DJ TRAHAN 1 POINT WIN AT 100 (EXCHANGE ODDS)

                      1 POINT TOP 5 PLACE AT 18/1




JOHN ROLLINS 1 POINT WIN AT 396 (EXCHANGE ODDS)

                             1 POINT TOP 5 PLACE AT 40/1




TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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Good morning.
Was pretty wide of the mark with my golf selections this week with just Chad Campbell making the cut but nowhere near the lead with one round to go.

Lui Rei ran really well in 3rd at Lingfield and rewarded 6 points at 25/1 BOG.
Mac Gille Eoin led the field for a long way at Kempton but drifted badly left at Kempton to forego any chance he may have had. Although it was a fair effort off a long break.

TOTAL STAKES 12 POINTS (6 POINTS RACING/ 6 POINTS GOLF)
RETURNS 6 POINTS LUI REI

OVERALL STAKES 51 POINTS
OVERALL RETURNS 57.4 POINTS
OVERALL PROFIT +6.4 POINTS
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