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Contrarian Handicapping

Stakes/Returns 1/5/2011

01 May 11 18:24
Wildcat Wizard ran on well for 5th place at 22/1 (BOG) to claim a return for the place.
Baldemar and Jack My Boy ran down the field.

RETURNS WILDCAT WIZARD 6.5 POINTS 5TH AT 22/1

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS

PROFIT (SMALL) 0.5 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 97 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 94.95

OVERALL LOSS -2.05 POINTS

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Newmarket 3.50 Thoughts

01 May 11 10:19
Good morning.

A 26 runner 6f handicap to solve today !

I did have the good fortune to pick Off The Record in this race a few years ago so am hoping to find a similar priced winner today.With such a big field I'm going to try 3 selections today all at big prices.

The first selection is previously selected Wildcat Wizard who ran a fair race last time at Pontefract in the first time blinkers which are left off today. That was a decent effort last time and he has form in big fields on a straight track. His 3rd to Joseph Henry last year at Goodwood with Tiddliwinks back in 4th reads very well along with a few other placed efforts at this level.This will be his 4th run of the year already so he will have a fitness advantage over plenty of the field and with some proven efforts looks to have a fair e/w chance.
Despite the big field there does look to be a lack of a strong pace overall but Jack My Boy should take them along down the stands side and could go well for a long way. He had some decent pieces of form last year on g/f ground over 6f and could well get the run of the race today. He showed up well last time at Warwick over 7f
and I like the booking of Jimmy Fortune. He had Horseradish back in 3rd last year over the C/D and was a good 2nd to Victoire De Lyphar at Doncaster.G/F ground and 6f look his ideal and he has placed in big fields as well.
If he can build a decent lead he could be hard to catch.
Finally Baldemar who is drawn close to Jack My Boy and who normally races up with the pace could also go well off a mark of 85 today. He pulled hard on his reappearance around the outside at Kempton but should have benefitted from that run. He is a class 2 winner at the trip, won a 24 runner race and looks well handicapped. He didn't win last year but ran a number of decent races off higher marks and feel he could go close today.

BALDEMAR 1 POINT E/W AT 28/1 (BOG FIRST 5)

WILDCAT WIZARD 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG FIRST 5)

JACK MY BOY 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (BOG FIRST 5)

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS
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Stakes/Returns 30/4/2011

01 May 11 07:56
Good morning.

Breakheart was a decent 3rd yesterday for a place return without getting that close to the winner.

Viva Vettori showed good speed but couldn't build on previous race efforts.

Oratory was a non runner.

RETURNS

BREAKHEART 3.75 POINTS 3RD AT 11/1.

ORATORY 2 POINTS NON RUNNER

TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS

TOTAL RETURNS 5.75 POINTS

LOSS -0.25 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 91 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 88.45 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -2.55 POINTS
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The Thirsk Hunt Cup

29 Apr 11 22:37
good evening again !

One that took my eye for this was Oratory available at 18/1 (BOG).
He missed the break and the script first time out at the track when well supported over 7f here but feel he is worth another chance over a more suitable 8f.
He put in some solid efforts in the grade and trip last year over 8f and back off a mark of 90 with a 3lb claimer aboard looks worth a go. A number of efforts last year put him right in the picture here and it's not the strongest class 2 and feel he is well capable of winning this if able to run to last years standard.

ORATORY 1 POINT E/W AT 18/1(BOG)
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Newmarket 2.00 Thoughts

29 Apr 11 21:27
Good evening.

A great start to tomorrows card with a class 2 9f handicap to solve !!

Considering Viva Vettori has finished 2nd & 4th in this race off marks off 87 & 88 he looks a mighty big price at 18/1 e/w running off 84 tomorrow. Those placings were achieved after the benefit of previous runs, however his first time out record reads 3121 and he looks a to have a great chance on all this. He had Kay Gee Bee back in 3rd when 2nd to Confront who is half the price at the early prices.

Breakheart is my second choice. He was a selection for the Spring mile but was evidently in need of that run and probably found the 8f to sharp. A better run last time over 10f at class 3 level should have him cherry ripe and he has some solid 10f form at this level last year and he may well find this 9f ideal. A positive jockey booking suggests the owners/connections are hoping for a return tomorrow.

There are a few potential improvers in the field but both the above have proven solid form at the grade and trip and at the prices they look worth a go

VIVA VETTORI 1 POINT E/W AT 18/1 (BOG)

BREAKHEART 1 POINT E/W AT 11/1 (BOG)
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Good morning.

A fair class 3 handicap at Yarmouth today with a Godolphin even money favourite.
The one that took my eye was Ceremonial Jade running back on turf. He was pulled out of a number of all weather races towards the end of the season when looking well handicapped.
He appears here on turf off a mark of 82 with a 5lb claimer aboard today.
The PT combination are used today and when used in the past have resulted in form figures of 3124.
He also has a decent record off a break albeit earlier in his career.
Despite being better known as an all weather runner back in the day (well, 2007 really) he had some pretty decent form on turf off marks in the 90's at Class 2 level).
He did it has to be said not look as good as he once was this past all weather season but feel he might well be worth an e/w try today at a decent price with the majority of the runners reappearing for the first time and a mark of 82 makes a lot of appeal here with the stable going pretty well at the moment.

CEREMONIAL JADE 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1 (BOG)

TOTAL STAKES 2 POINTS

*****NON RUNNER******
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Good morning.
Wannabe King hung on by a nose for a decent win and return at 14/1 (bog)
A welcome result. Whether he can win again in the grade I'm not sure as he has gone well before first time out.
Huygens was a non runner and was well supported.

Webb Simpson is some way off the pace in the golf at 3 under so I shall include him as a loser for returns today.
(will add if he comes up with a miracle round today but hard to see him making the top five)

STAKES 2 POINTS WEBB SIMPSON/THE HERITAGE

       2 POINTS WANNABE KING

       2 POINTS HUYGENS

   TOTAL STAKES 6 POINTS

   RETURNS WANNABE KING 19.5 POINTS (1ST AT 14/1 E/W)

                HUYGENS 2 POINTS NON RUNNER

     
  TOTAL RETURNS 21.5 POINTS
  TOTAL PROFIT 15.5 POINTS


  OVERALL STAKES 85 POINTS

  OVERALL RETURNS 82.7 POINTS

  OVERALL LOSS -2.3 POINTS

Still a small loss on the blog overall but moving back in the right direction !!
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Sandown 4.50 Selections

23 Apr 11 06:08
Good morning at this early hour.

A quick and short post today with a busy Easter weekend ahead.

HUYGENS 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG-VC)

WANNABEE KING 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG-VC)

Huygens had some fair form last year,gone well fresh, has been gelded and stable started very well.

Wannabee King is another gelded,gone well fresh and could go well.

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS
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It's Webb Simpson week !

21 Apr 11 08:42
Good morning.

I notice that Webb Simpson is playing the Verizon Heritage this week, a tournament he finished a highly creditable 14th in last year on his debut there. He finished a good 16th recently at the Shell Houston and feel
he could go well again this week and make a strong challenge again after his agonising 2nd at the Transitions. His stats speak for themselves and am hoping this is the week he makes the breakthrough.

WEBB SIMPSON 1 POINT WIN AT 65 (EXCHANGE ODDS)

             1 POINT TOP FIVE PACE AT 12/1 (STAN JAMES)

TOTAL STAKES 2 POINTS
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Pontefract 3.10 Thoughts

21 Apr 11 08:46
A very decent sprint this afternoon and the one that makes some appeal at the prices to me is Wildcat Wizard at 16/1. He actually managed to finish 20 of 20 last time ! when apprentice ridden which doesn't look all that inspiring, but I'm going to ignore that run. On his previous run at Wolverhampton he showed up well round the outside until weakening, which was his first run for six months and his first for his new stable.
His best form of 2010 when with Paul Cole gives him a solid chance today off 91.
Blinkers are applied today which will hopefully have a positive effect and Andrew Mullen takes the ride. He shows a very healthy profit when riding for the stable and feel at 16/1 he looks worth a try.
With the benefit of two runs he should be match fit which could well be an advantage over a number of todays runners and with some solid class 2 form from last year looks to have a decent chance.

WILDCAT WIZARD 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)


**** A fair run by Wildcat Wizard but not fair enough to make a return.

LOSS 2 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 79 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 63.2 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS - 15.8 POINTS
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