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Contrarian Handicapping

Stakes/Returns 7/5/2011

08 May 11 08:35
Good morning.
Not my finest day with Laylas Hero managing to finish last ! That looks to bad to be true and the original jockey did not ride.Douze Points also ran down the field and the race was dominated by the market principals and the far rail runners.

Mac Gille Eoin fared no better in the last also running down the field.

All in all a very poor day with no decent runs at all !

STAKES 6 POINTS

RETURNS 0

LOSS -6 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 117 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 108.45 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -8.55 POINTS
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Ascot 5.10 ( a 33/1 shot)

07 May 11 09:41
A race that has been won by some very decent runners in it's four runnings.
All were rated no higher than 89 and none carried more than 8.12.

Mac Gille Eoin is very well handicapped off a mark of 86 and has shown enough on his first two runs this year to feel he could run a good race today off his mark. he should be fit enough now and although he is better at downhill courses I feel he can go well here from a mark of 86.
He struggled last year but had some very good form at this level in 2008 and 2009 including a 5th in the Stewards Cup and a good win at Epsom at this level.
It's a competitive race but at the odds I shall give him a try.

MAC GILLE EOIN 1 POINT E/W AT 33/1 (BOG)
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Good evening.
A fiercely competitive race for tomorrow and rain forecast as well.

Al Muheer has been well supported for this race but I really feel that David Nicholls other runner Layla's Hero
has a better chance and could go really well over 7f.
He was with the stable as a 2yr old racking up a 3 timer over 6f at Class 2 level and two listed races ending up on a mark of 103. Some of the runners he had behind him in those races include Colonel Mak, Citrus Star,Swilly Ferry,Pintura, Yaa Wahl etc etc.
With David Simcock last year he struggled somewhat off his rating until the backend of the season where he ran some promising races as his rating dropped including a somewhat unlucky run behind Navajo Chief and Leviathan, along with a 2nd to Colepeper and a fair 5th to Excellent Guest over the C/D giving that one 13lb.
He's now back with the Nicholls stable and ran a fair race FTO behind Horseradish at Doncaster, not really beaten far in 13th despie flyjumping the start and that run should have brought him on for this. He fits the type of runner that has won this race and despite not having won at the trip I feel it should suit really well.
Al Muheer is the more fancied in the market but Ahmed Ajtabi has a quite amazing record for the stable having
won on 8 from 17 runners (47%) producing a £56.07 profit to stakes.

He is back to a mark 4lb below his first listed win at 2 and could be a typical good at 2, struggled at 3, very good at 4 runner. Well thats my theory anyway ! There's rain forecast and I feel that will help the cause but overall feel he is a well handicapped runner and it would be no suprise to see a big run tomorrow at a big price.

I will be adding another selection for the race tomorrow but feel the first selection has a good chance at a good price.

LAYLA'S HERO 1 POINT E/W AT 28/1 (BOG 1ST FIVE)

Good morning.

The second selection is Douze Points for new trainer Ed De Giles.
He had some fair form in Ireland last year and had Brae Hill behind him when a good 3rd over 7f to Hujaylea who has gone on to run well at Meydan including a 2nd to Dandy Boy there.
He ran well on his reappearance run at Ripon over 8f to finish 4th and his trainer reported he should come on for that as was one who took a while to get fit.
He was also 4th to Thats A Fret who came over here to win a Class 2 over 5f at Catterick.
There's some really good bits of form from last year that give him a fair e/w chance today and 33/1 looks a big price.
He also has a very good record in big fields. In fields of 18 runners or more he has figures of 231500344 from 6 to 8f. He runs off a mark of just 89 today and the 5lb claim will also help. With big field form and fair overall form I feel he is another worth a try at a big price.

DOUZE POINTS 1 POINT E/W AT 33/1 (BOG 1ST FIVE)
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stakes/Returns 6/5/2011

06 May 11 20:40
Not quite the plot i was hoping for although I thought Marine Boy ran pretty well.
Not sure if the course was the ideal or he is a tricky customer but felt there was some potential there and he goes in the notebook.

TOTAL STAKES 2 POINTS

RETURNS 0

LOSS -2 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 111 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 108.45 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -2.55 POINTS
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Good morning.

Just one selection today and that is Marine Boy.
He runs off a mark of 92 today for his reappearance run with a tongue strap added for the first time. He has ran well fresh before and off a break notably when 5th to Estorica at this level off 100 over 7f at Newmarket back in 2009 and winning FTO at two.
Clearly there's been some problems along the way but feel he is pretty well handicapped off todays mark and from a fair draw in 8 could go well at a big price.
What took my eye is that he has been leased to Chester FC racing club by none other than Mr Andrew Black.
Mike Foster the clubs racing manager reports he has been working really well at home and they are pleased with his progress.
Hmmm. Runs at Chester in the Chester FC colours, decent mark, fair draw.
Here's to a good run.

All thoughts welcome especially from Mr Black !

MARINE BOY 1 POINT E/W AT 22/1 (CORALS)
 
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Stakes/Returns 4/5/2011

04 May 11 23:30
Just one return but it came courtesy of Mystery Star at 50/1 (BOG) who ran a cracker to finish 3rd in the Chester Cup returning 13.5 points for the place !

TOTAL STAKES 8 POINTS

TOTAL RETURNS 13.5 POINTS

PROFIT 5.5 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 109 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 108.45 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -0.55 POINTS !
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Despite having a good draw in 2 Green Park seems to have been overlooked here at the odds as has his course form.
Over 5 & 6 here it reads 2212231 ! Over the 5f it reads 2212 including a 2nd to Bertoliver Happy in this race
back in 2008 off 88. He runs off 91 today but the 5lb claim will help. He showed up really well last time at Pontefract over 6f at this level and led to almost the furlong pole there and should be fit enough now on his third start of the year.He ran up a three timer at the end of 2010 and feel despite the age of 8 could well be competitive today from a plum draw with solid C/D form.

Another 8yr old with a plum draw is Moorhouse Lad who could also go well. He needed the run last time as he has usually done in the past but his second start figures off a break read 2122002 with the two unplaced efforts at
Group 3 and Group 1 level. He wasn't beaten far in the Dash last year despite a stall 4 draw and his mark has dropped a little to 95 for today.A former Group winner in his prime he looks to have more of a chance now back in handicaps at the age of 8.

GREEN PARK 1 POINT E/W AT 18/1 (BOG)

MOORHOUSE LAD 1 POINT E/W AT 8/1 (BOG)
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Good morning.

The Chester cup today and have decided at the prices to have a try with two runners who are burdened with wide draws today.

Swingkeel has been handed stall 17 which has never made the frame in the last ten runnings of this race !
However I am still going to give him a try at 33/1 which is a huge price as he has some very decent form over 16f + on g/f ground. Those figures read 121303 under such conditions and he was a very good 5th in this last year from stall 4 on good ground. He fits plenty of trends/stats of previous winners of this race and feel he worth a try at the odds. He is now with his new stable but connections have taken the step of booking Jimmy Fortune who was his regular rider when with John Dunlop. he will obviously need luck in running but don't feel he is the forlorn hope that the odds suggest and he has the form to have a leading chance.

My other pick is Mystery Star from stall 16. That stall has done somewhat better over the last ten years having won once along with a 2nd & 3rd and a 5th so is not insurmountable.
The selection is another that goes well on g/f ground. He has some decent pieces of placed form at class 2 level over 12f always staying on well at that trip. He's ran twice over 14f with the first time giving Akmal, a subsquent Group 2 winner 10lb and being beat just a length. The second time at the trip was at Wolverhampton carrying 10 stone where he won. This trip is a bit further ! but I'm speculating that he will stay the trip and am putting my faith in the trainer who obviously thinks he will !
The selection has ran at the track before with a good 2nd to Munsef over 13f and that track experience will help.
The trainer also has a very decent strike rate at the track of 9/37 (24%) which augers well.

I could of course have just wasted my money and time writing this but at the prices and despite the draws I feel both are worth a try today.

SWINGKEEL 1 POINT E/W AT 33/1 (BOG)

MYSTERY STAR 1 POINT E/W AT 40/1 (BOG)
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Good evening.

No joy at Kempton today with Huygens finishing 4th and Big Noise a never nearer 7th from a way back position.
Despite the loss on the day both ran fair races and shall be keeping an eye out for both.

TOTAL STAKES 4 POINTS

RETURNS 0

LOSS -4 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 101 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 94.95 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS - 6.05 POINTS

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kempton 4.00 Picks

02 May 11 10:37
Good morning.

Huygens was a pick last week in Wannabee King's race and hopefully will consent to load today !
He is 31 over the C/D and has been gelded since last year. Jamie Spencer is booked today and he looks to have improvement to come and looks fairly treated.He was well supported at Sandown from an opening 14/1 and hopefully can make amends today.

The second choice at a very big price is Big Noise at 25/1.
He has a great first time out record of 1315. The 5th was a 29 runner affair last year in the Victoria Cup.
All those efforts were over 7f a trip he has raced at mainly throughout his career.
He has ran just once at the trip and on polytrack at Great Leighs when 2nd to Riggins giving him 7lb !
That's a fair piece of form and feel he is well worth a go today with such a good FTO record and unexposed at the trip. He has often looked as if 8f would be ideal, finding himself a little outpaced at times over 7f.
He starts the year off 87 which looks a winnable mark and today may be the best time to catch him.

HUYGENS 1 POINT E/W AT 7/1 (BOG)

BIG NOISE 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (BOG)
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