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fkqmz
10 Mar 14 19:09
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Date Joined: 16 May 07
| Topic/replies: 3,313 | Blogger: fkqmz's blog
When Betfair opened up the O/U 18.5 and 19.5 finishers I was hoping for a field day but it seems that in fact no one is that stupid! There's still got to be some good prices around this week as people fail to react properly to the new regs. I hope you've all got your Aus wallets ready to go because the last 10 laps could be carnage with people running out of fuel. Its going to be trading heaven and I can't wait. Any blatantly wrong prices I find are goinf in this thread though so enjoy...

I still think Freds 2.38 on under 12.5 is good. I;ve been predicting 8-10 finishers for months and if anything, i'm starting to think thats quite optimistic. One danger is that I don't actually know whether someone who is running at the end but doesn't complete 90% of the race distance will be classified or not. Its never happened before but I think it could do this week as teams like Lotus and Toro Rosso run at reduced pace to get some milage. Anyone know the answer to this?
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Report ocukstinky March 10, 2014 11:37 PM GMT
I think we'll get half a dozen finishers tbh. There are some huge value prices to be found on drivers not to finish the race. Maldonado is 4/5, Grosjean is 5/6, the STR drivers are 11/10 each, Vettel is 6/4, even the Caterhams are 13/8 each to not finish, that's a mentally good price.

My biggest hope is for Marussia points. Backed Bianchi at 6/1 and Chilton at 7/1, also in a double. The car seems reliable ebough to get them around while everyone else drops out. This is their best chance and I really thinm at least one will finish in the points.
Report Zazu March 11, 2014 3:19 AM GMT
Think people are getting carried away with the unreliability. Ferrari and the Mercedes powered teams were easily doing race distances in Bahrain

Its F1, no one should be running out of fuel.


Agree Lotus pair look big price but their only aim in Oz will be to finish
Report fkqmz March 11, 2014 1:15 PM GMT
the lotus's surely are not going to finish. when asked about whether they would run slowly to gain some milage in Melbourne, Grosjean actually said "No, we havn't even found a way to run slowly" I did say this about the HRTs a few years ago and Chandhok went and classified but I really can't see either Lotus finishing this weekend........ cue the double podium!! Plain
Report Zazu March 14, 2014 1:42 AM GMT
FP1 Hamilton breaks down on first lap Laugh
Report Zazu March 14, 2014 5:37 AM GMT
How can Lotus and Caterham have made a car that can't complete a lap Crazy
Report fkqmz March 14, 2014 3:12 PM GMT
Lewsi looks like he's been pumped full of sedatives this season, either that or he's just stoned. he seems really chilled out and I can't even be arsed to laugh at him any more. nah my attentions moving on to that orange skinned pr!ck brundle. I want that moron off my tv NOW!
Report Da Special 1 March 15, 2014 8:06 PM GMT
Grosjean not to finish 19/10 with Betway
Report Zazu March 16, 2014 7:49 AM GMT
22 Feb 14 / 04:55     Single     1           Australian F1 Grand Prix - Race Winner  –  Race Winner     Nico Rosberg @ 8/1     Won     £200.00     £1800.00


easy as ever this game Cool
Report ocukstinky March 16, 2014 7:58 AM GMT

Mar 16, 2014 -- 8:49AM, Zazu wrote:


22 Feb 14 / 04:55     Single     1           Australian F1 Grand Prix - Race Winner  –  Race Winner     Nico Rosberg @ 8/1     Won     £200.00     £1800.00easy as ever this game


Lovely stuff :)

Report ts March 17, 2014 2:12 AM GMT
Theyve reversed o/u 13.5 market. Subsequent DQs werent supposed to matter.. Go figure.
Report ts March 17, 2014 3:38 AM GMT
What if Ricc DQ gets overturned?
Before Ive layed 1.01 in similar situations when I thought there was possibility it could overturn later, never gotten lucky with these..
Report Josh-T March 17, 2014 3:46 AM GMT
ts, I'm a total novice on these markets but have dabbled in them before. As you said before, I thought the initial FIA result - which would be before protests or DQs would STAND. There was one specific debacle 4/5 years ago that led them to do this. I thought!
Report Josh-T March 17, 2014 4:06 AM GMT
And now I can see the variations.

Winning car/placings - Podium presentation
Then for the under/overs:

"This market will be settled on the official result of the FIA, regardless of any subsequent disqualification or amendment to the result"

If I look at the FIA site, the result is "provisional". Is that an official result?
Too many questions... again.
Report NW March 17, 2014 10:02 PM GMT
Yes, so for most markets the reference used is the "result at the time of the podium presentation". This is the provisional result declared by the FIA straight after the race.

For some reason a different source - the "official result of the FIA" - is used for the number of classified finishers market. This is published by the FIA only after the scrutineering checks have taken place and so is usually a few hours after the race has ended. The clause "regardless of any subsequent disqualification or amendment to the result" is there so that they do not need to resettle the market if the official result is subsequently changed due to an appeal (though rule 2.1 in part B of the rules & regs states an exception to this if an amendment is announced within 24 hours of the initial settlement in order to correct an error in reporting the result).

As the official result had 13 finishers they have now settled in accordance with the rules as 'under 13.5' though Ricciardo would have been settled as a winner in the podium and points markets based on the provisional result.

That's my understanding anyway...
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