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elisjohn
04 Jul 11 05:48
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Date Joined: 15 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 2,577 | Blogger: elisjohn's blog
seen this offer , and im no expert on grand prix but i do know that vettel seems to win every race nearly, the bet is vettel to win brit grand prix, to be on pole, and to have the fastest lap, is 5/1 on this happening a great bet ?
Pause Switch to Standard View is this a fab bet on vettel ?
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Report brentford July 4, 2011 11:10 AM BST
Interestingly Vettel has only one fastest lap in the 8 Grand Prix so far this season.

You'd have to fancy him to get the pole/race double with Silverstone being a real Red Bull circuit but rather less confident in him getting the fastest lap - he can often be in such a dominant position that he doesn't need to be pushing hard when the fuel load is lighter

The new rule (part 2) on off throttle diffusers / engine mapping comes in to play this weekend but personally I would be surprised if that were to hurt Red Bull much more than others.

looking at current bookie prices  5/6 race win, some 2/1 fastest lap and 1/2 pole position I think you'd be better off looking at the individual bets if you strongly fancy him.
obviously you can't just do an effective accumulator on those prices as they have some linked dependence but they seem a better route to back Vettel to me.
Report pug munter July 4, 2011 11:12 AM BST
Its a fair price but hardly a "fab bet", considering he is over 2/1 to just get fastest lap alone, then 5/1 for all 3 isnt anything special. Obviously he is likely to be on pole and also the most likely winner judging on what we have seen so far this season, but bearing in mind the new changes being brought in with the exhausts (which may bring Mclaren and Ferrari closer, and also the weather forecast is mixed for this weekend, then I would advise caution before charging in.

Good luck whatever you decide.
Report pug munter July 4, 2011 11:15 AM BST
I didnt see brentford's post when I was writing mine.... I am surprised he is only 1 from 8 on fastest laps.... definately worth swerving on those stats...
Report SamH_123 July 4, 2011 12:03 PM BST
this is bet..fred isn't it?  I reckon their 5/1 for a red bull 1,2 is much better
Report Zazu July 4, 2011 2:09 PM BST
SamH_123 04 Jul 11 12:03 
this is bet..fred isn't it?  I reckon their 5/1 for a red bull 1,2 is much better



much better [smiley:crazy]
Its **** in your pants better!!

can only get £5 online and the shop are having none of it Cry

Ignore this garbage about engine mapping, weather forecast is ok so red bull will run riot this weekend. Their superior aero owns Silverstone and Suzuka. engine change will kill mclaren (see pre season testing) so only threat is ferrari which is pretty weak at this type of circuit

FILL YOUR BOOTS Cool
Report fkqmz July 5, 2011 8:29 AM BST
one sticking point, anyone like to guess the last driver to win 3 british GPs in a row ? that's what vettels aiming to do this weekend.
Report fkqmz July 5, 2011 9:04 AM BST
Laugh i do apologise i forgot webber won last year didnt he, almost forget webber exists these days
Report Zazu July 5, 2011 11:23 AM BST
dont see what relevance your 'sticking point' has to anything Confused

barring a significant incident, red bull will be 1-2. Id make it about 2/1 so 5/1 is huge if you can get on  Cool
Report fkqmz July 5, 2011 12:55 PM BST
well the point is it doesnt!

I'll lay you that 2/1 all day long how much would you like ?
Report Zazu July 5, 2011 1:21 PM BST
If i believe something is a 2/1 shot, betting at 2/1 isn't getting any value surely Confused

What price would you make it? High speed corners = red bull domination.
Report fkqmz July 5, 2011 3:21 PM BST
no thats quite correct, unlike most of what ive written today which hasn't exactly been clear!

nothing to confuse about this though. the correct price of a red bull 1-2 is currently 3.60. thats what i'd give you right now.
Report fkqmz July 5, 2011 3:23 PM BST
i'd consider boosting to 4.0 on small bets but the correct price is 3.60.
Report pug munter July 5, 2011 5:19 PM BST
I agree 5/1 red bulls 1-2 is a big price (Ladcrooks only go 9/4).

I have tried to open an account with Bet Fred, even if I can only get a £5 on, but its saying my email account is already registered with them, so I must already have an account... and I cant remember my log in Cry
Report Zazu July 5, 2011 5:37 PM BST
how have you calculated the correct price to be 3.6?

PM you might get more on. my account has stupid restrictions and they wont accommodate anything via traders/phone because its a special Devil


Have people missed how stupidly amazing red bulls aero is compared to everyone else? Confused
Report pug munter July 5, 2011 5:57 PM BST
My mate who has a phone account has just phoned up.... been told its available in the shops!.... might pop round later and find out if this is true! Shocked
Report Zazu July 5, 2011 6:30 PM BST
wasn't available in shop yesterday.

guy today told me it was internet only Cry
Report pug munter July 5, 2011 6:50 PM BST
just opened an internet account.... had £20 at 5/1. Cool

win lose or draw, its certainly value!
Report SamH_123 July 5, 2011 8:58 PM BST
zazu, I'm about +£1000 for my Betfred account since I opened it a few weeks back do you know at what sort of point I might get limited?
Report Zazu July 5, 2011 9:14 PM BST
as soon as you get your 'shrewd as ****' badge Cool
Report fkqmz July 6, 2011 7:37 AM BST
[;)] tell you what we'll wait till later in the weekend and see how close i am Happy
Report catfloppo July 6, 2011 11:48 AM BST
No, that seems poor value to me.
Report fkqmz July 6, 2011 3:56 PM BST
its not meant to be value, its meant to be correct!

btw its drifted a bit now, the correct price is now 3.75

big brave korals have gone up with 4.0 so they obviously dont think its happening. have betfreds still got the 6.0 up?
Report Zazu July 6, 2011 4:02 PM BST
you've still not said how you've calculate the 'correct price' Confused

corall dont think its happening Confused
you could argue it heads their market so they believe it to be the most likely outcome Cool
Report pug munter July 6, 2011 5:00 PM BST
betfred are still 5/1 fkqmz.
Report fkqmz July 7, 2011 7:56 AM BST
you've still not said how you've calculate the 'correct price'

LaughLaugh and who in their right mind would LaughLaugh

like i say, judge my 'correct price' on where it sits as the weekend developes - its still 3.75 btw. anything over 4 is value.
Report Zazu July 7, 2011 12:59 PM BST
so its not a correct price at all, just your opinion Plain
Report fkqmz July 7, 2011 2:32 PM BST
no it its not opinion, its mathematically derived so its absolutely, indesputably correct. possibly shortening a bit again now. bit more like the 3.60 i said it should be in the first place!
Report fkqmz July 7, 2011 2:34 PM BST
btw this is my last post now till next week so
everyone whos going - enjoy it, see you there
everyone whos not - hope you win lots of money betting in running

3.60 - 3.75 will be the final price pre-practice [;)]
Report Zazu July 7, 2011 4:20 PM BST
Laugh

do you know how the new rules are going to affect each team? - no, even the teams dont
do you know how new upgrades are going to affect each team? - no, even the teams dont

you've probably not even seen the simulations!


if you've derived it from other markets. a) you've probably done it wrong and b) that would assume all those prices are correct which isn't true
Report GPT July 7, 2011 4:55 PM BST
Not saying the bet won't win but it's terrible value.
Report Zazu July 7, 2011 5:36 PM BST
catflappo and GPT care to offer a defence?
Report PrinceRob July 7, 2011 11:55 PM BST
5/1 is BAD value, the driver who is on pole and who wins, often does not do the fastest lap. Also Vettel is well overdue to have a bad race, so I wouldn't be surprised if he retires or suffers mechanical problems.
Report SamH_123 July 8, 2011 12:20 AM BST
PrinceRob the convo moved on from the opening post a while back, we're talking about 5/1 for Red Bull 1/2.

And are you saying Vettel is more likely to have a bad race because his year has so far been trouble-free?  Not sure that's good maths
Report Zazu July 8, 2011 7:47 AM BST
my bollyes accounts stupidly limited Cry

screws me for 8 places on the golf and money back if your driver finishes 2nd to vettel. Makes webber at 6/1 look massive then imvho
Report Zazu July 8, 2011 9:01 AM BST
Cold and damp FP1

i had an small interest on webber at 11/2, but fancy an outsider to now top timesheets. fore india drivers 80/1 and 100/1 but session has just started Cry
Report Zazu July 8, 2011 9:02 AM BST
hulkenberg could cause mayhem if he wins it Cool
Report Zazu July 8, 2011 10:38 AM BST
despite the weather, webber delivers in yet another fp1.

shrewdness personified Cool
Report catfloppo July 8, 2011 10:10 PM BST
Well, Zazu how many times has this happened so far this year?  Add to that the rule changes, weather and the fact that webber goes well at silverstone and I'd sooner be the bookie.
Report Zazu July 9, 2011 6:33 AM BST
are you reffering to webber topping fp1? if so a lot!

webber going well at silverstone is a positive Confused
don't think we've had a 1-2 this year, but we haven't been to silverstone before have we Cool
Report GPT July 9, 2011 6:38 AM BST
My defence is the same as catflappos.
Report GPT July 9, 2011 2:45 PM BST
Fell at the 1st hurdle.
Report Zazu July 9, 2011 2:48 PM BST
GPT not read the thread (nap) Laugh
Report GPT July 9, 2011 2:51 PM BST
Zazu wrong againLaughLaugh[;)]
Report TheFormMan July 9, 2011 3:08 PM BST
Vettel now 7/4 for tomorrows race,thats what you call a fab bet and free money! lump on!
Report TheFormMan July 10, 2011 1:29 PM BST
easy easy easy moneyGrin
Report catfleppo July 10, 2011 3:14 PM BST
0/3 Cool
Report Zazu July 10, 2011 3:21 PM BST
cat do you realise your talking about a different bet to everyone else? Confused
Report catfleppo July 10, 2011 3:28 PM BST
I'm talking about the bet in the original post, it's you that has gone off topic.
[:p]
Report GPT July 10, 2011 7:03 PM BST
Strike outLaugh
Report fkqmz July 12, 2011 3:04 PM BST
zazu you bitter little man, my price was spot on wasn't it Blush

but to admit that i actually know what i'm doing with regards to betting would pain you so much cause you hate my opinions on motorsport so much. next time you want to check how much value you're getting, i won't hold it against you Silly
Report Zazu July 12, 2011 3:19 PM BST
my only bitterness is towards the weather forecasters Devil
Report fkqmz July 12, 2011 7:28 PM BST
Shocked i dont think anyone could have predicted the weather at any point over the weekend about 5 mins in advance. at around 12 o clock on sunday i confidently looked at the sky and predicted that there was no way it was going to rain and didnt bother taking my rain stuff out of the stand when i went to watch the red arrows.
OOPS!!! Laugh
Report catfleppo July 13, 2011 10:31 AM BST
It was easy to see there was a fair chance of rain.
Report fkqmz July 13, 2011 11:34 AM BST
Confused err no, it had been dry all morning and the sky was blue and sunny. it only ever rained on half the track and the shower on the north end of the circuit was the result of 1 rogue cloud! very random but great weather for motorsport.
Report catfleppo July 14, 2011 10:12 PM BST
Not really that random, it was cloudy on and off all weekend.
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