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24 Jun 11 10:38
Date Joined: 17 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 327 | Blogger: jimk's blog
Hello.  I've been making considerable profits from Formula 1, for several years (last year I made over £47k).  Pre Betfair, it was always a struggle to find the bet I wanted with a bookmaker that would be offering half decent odds.  Since Betfair, my profits have taken off and I haven't had a losing year yet.

With yet another great start to the season, combined with a packed racing schedule, I'm aiming at making this the best year yet!

I shall be posting my selections on this thread.  Follow my advice if you want to make some money.

Typically, the majority of my advised bets will come after qualifying.

This weekend's advice pre-qualifying is:

European GP - Overall Qual. Winner
Vettel   3pts back @ 1.77

European GP - Winner
Vettel   2pts lay @ 2.26

A brief sum up:

Vettel's qualifying dominance was greatly reduced in Canada.  However, considering the suitability of Vettel and the Red Bull to Canada and Valencia, I am expecting Vettel to thrive in qualifying again and take pole with a convincing margin (which leaves room for error). 

Laying Vettel to win may seem a bizarre bet after the above comments.  This is a starting position on what will hopefully be a maximum lay (should Vettel qualify on pole and his odds drop to odds-on).  It also offers some insurance, in case the qualifying bet doesn't come to fruition. 

Hamilton will be my main focus this weekend, although I reckon better odds may be available on him post qualifying.  I really can't see Hamilton starting on pole and therefore I think it is safe to wait for better odds in the win market if he were to qualify around 4th to 5th.  McClaren have been dominating race pace for the last three races, but apart from JB's fantastic win last race, they haven't been able to show their true potential.  I will be waiting for more feedback from the drivers, regarding DRS & KERS and the ability to overtake.  I am expecting another hugely profitable weekend.
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Report fkqmz June 24, 2011 12:20 PM BST
congratulations on your winning record and your profits, i'd be interested to know if you can quantify it in terms of % profit on stakes as a £47k profit is much more impressive of £10k stakes than £250k for example. surprised you havn't mentioned the golden words "in-running", do you not think this is the easiest place to make profit on F1 ?

good luck all the same - cant fault your logic, far from considering your bets bizarre i actually think theyre the obvious choices and you'll almost certainly make on both of them. will be following with passive interest....
Report jimk June 24, 2011 1:56 PM BST
Thanks for reply.
Last year I staked a few quid over 122k.
I don't bet IR.  I prefer to take time to consider my bets and don't like to jump in on a whim.  I feel people who are at the event have an edge and therefore all bets are placed when the cars are parked.  I appreciate that others will make big profits (and losses) betting in running.  Is this what you do fkqmz?
Report fkqmz June 24, 2011 3:56 PM BST
so your sitting on circa 40% profits, not bad. i have to say my % is better but i very rarely find a viable bet. yes i always bet in running, usually on impulse. dangerous?..... well probably but until i come a cropper i'll kepp doing it. some trading experience with big bookies and a lifetime of following the sport both help!
eg laid vettel in canada during the last safety car period. with button and alonso closing i felt the 1.15 was well too short and to be fair, i got a bit lucky on the last lap. fastest lap was my favourite market last season - made a fortune up until about 2/3 of the way through the season when the market finally realised they were backing way too short and theres less margin in that one now.
Report Zazu June 24, 2011 4:10 PM BST
vettel for pole, thats a stonkingly original selection [smiley:crazy]

much better to wait for silverstone and see what happens when the engine cheating stops Cool
Report baracouda30 June 24, 2011 8:22 PM BST
Fair enough to tip it if he thinks it's a value bet. Not sure I do, but there you go.

I do think a lay of him winning is dangerous though. From what I remember this circuit offers little overtaking opportunities, so if he's on pole I would think he'll be very short for the victory (1.66?)

Others like Hamilton/Alonso/Button need to finish every race just to give themselves a shout so they aren't going to want to go too toe-to-toe with him off the start line if they qualify 2nd. Then there's Webber, his team-mate.

He may be a lay if there's a surprise package alongside him on the front row (Rosberg, Schumacher maybe). They might be more willing to tangle with him early on.

If he gets away cleanly and leads after lap 1, he'll be 1.5 or less I reckon.
Report brentford June 25, 2011 11:28 AM BST
Would doubt over taking will be as tough as usual though baracouda - we've got two DRS zones this weekend and some fair differential in top speeds.
Report baracouda30 June 25, 2011 1:44 PM BST
True enough. Hope so, I like the circuit layout but you can't deny it's been dull the past few years.
Report Chilly the Dog June 25, 2011 4:47 PM BST
I'm just looking into strategies for IP betting. Do you guys use the live timings or the pictures? Or both?
Report hippie June 25, 2011 4:51 PM BST
CtD - live timings.

That bet doesn't make sense high-roller.
Report jimk June 25, 2011 8:32 PM BST
Racing here has indeed been dull the last couple years, but there will be lots of overtaking now with DRS & KERS combination, even on this track!

Further bets for weekend:

European GP - Winner:
Lay Vettel 5pts @ 1.79
Back Hamilton 3pts @ 5.4

European GP - Points Finish
Back Maldonado 3pts @ 6.2

European GP - Podium Finish
Lay Webber 5pts @ 1.9

Confident we will make some big money this weekend.

Moving house so won't be back on forum until after the race.
Report Zazu June 25, 2011 8:54 PM BST
basically you're just laying the red bulls? Confused

mclarens pace was probably better at monaco and canada but those are completely different circuits to valencica. they still had the huge qualifying advantage seen in earlier rounds and quite possibly after 2 laps vettel will be out of the DRS zone!
Report catfloppo June 26, 2011 8:43 AM BST

If you hadn't started by saying you made a profit from this I would have guessed otherwise from the rest of your post and the subsequent ones.  You must either be very clever or very lucky to make this sort of approach pay. Congratulations, whichever, and good luck for the race.
Report fkqmz June 26, 2011 10:54 AM BST
European GP - Points Finish
Back Maldonado 3pts @ 6.2

oh dear [smiley:crazy]
Report Here come the steamer June 26, 2011 10:59 AM BST
think a great value bet is Paul di Resta to finish in the top 6. he's going to drive out his skin today
Report Zazu June 26, 2011 6:27 PM BST
i didnt believe you consistently made profits after your first post and i sure as hell didnt after post qualifying tips.

having said that, after a completely predictable race your point losses this weekend are absolutely catasphroic even by betfair forum standards [smiley:crazy]
Report Peanuts June 26, 2011 9:24 PM BST
This has to be the most egotistical incompetent posting I have seen on the F1 forum. Anyone logging into this forum over the years will know that everyone makes their own opinions, a lot of them well judged, and this type of post is a complete embarrasment
Report GRANTCKING June 27, 2011 1:29 AM BST
u layed vettel to win the race? jesus christ do u know anything about F1?
Report SamH_123 June 27, 2011 12:47 PM BST
Can you really make large profits from just pre-event punts?  Are there any common places for value in the markets?

I guess you won't be doing more threads because it seemed to be a jinx lol
Report Pounf June 27, 2011 6:56 PM BST
jimk - last seen getting a sex change and some plastic surgery...
Report Fairfield Grand June 27, 2011 8:48 PM BST
best part of 20 points done there - the curse of the forum mouth off strikes again...

How much stake is a point out of interest?
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