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28 Apr 11 13:11
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Date Joined: 07 Aug 06
| Topic/replies: 19,297 | Blogger: Alex the old wrinkled retainer's blog
Help me here chaps, I am failing to understand the money coming for Lorenzo.

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Replies: 36
By:
GPT
When: 28 Apr 11 16:10
Well he has won there 3 times on the bounce.
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 28 Apr 11 18:18
OK if that is the rationale then what is the right price?
By:
Zazu
When: 29 Apr 11 08:13
what money?

despite the long straight its one of the slowest circuits on the calendar, generally if you go well at Jerez you'll go well at Estoril. JLo won last 3 motogp races there but wasnt overly impressive in the lower classes. '08 michelin vs bridgestone was huge and in 2010 other 3 aliens all had valid excuses.

changeable weather (esp wind and temperature) is notorious due to the circuits locations.

id take casey over JLo this weekend but neither are appealing at the prices.
By:
Pounf
When: 29 Apr 11 12:59
GP - Gutted, was going to back Curly Simo at a pony, but forgot. Was winning in the wet when fell off last time, and with doubts over Pedrosa and Rossi, thought it a nice e/w bet. Lo and behold hes fastest this morning so no pony about now - doh!
125cc - Terol looks a walkover, best of the rest Faubel, and quite like Oliveira at big prices for some fun.
Moto2 - Iannone is a Sunday man, you can almost ignore what he does Friday/Saturday. With weather dodgy he`d be my choice.
Alex De Angelis worth an e/w shout. Rats to note Kallio and Aleix Espargaro, both ex GP riders.
By:
Zazu
When: 29 Apr 11 14:06
Pedrosa and Rossi have had 4 weeks to heal and get fit

In the wet I fancied sideshow bob becasue he can risk putting it in the gravel and throwing away big points (which he usually does). Weather forecast is pretty good now and despite topping fp1 and fp2 cant have him in the top 3 if its dry. 

was all over oliveria at 100/1ew at jerez. despite being local he hasnt done a lot of miles at estoril so expect him to be even better by sunday. Terol will win though and is making the championship boring

moto2 is littered with ex motogp riders and world champs. Ive taken takahasi at the prices, looked very strong throughout the weekend at jerez
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 29 Apr 11 16:13
Ive taken takahasi at the prices,



Good call.  quickest in FP2
By:
Zazu
When: 29 Apr 11 17:23
takahasi ended up topping both sessions but not everyone went out in fp2.  he's usually strong in wet and dry so im happy.

Race weather forecast this morning was pretty good but now its saying wet. Cant get a bet on with any of the firms offering 100/1 but id definitely take my chances with maverick vinales ew in the 125s in changeable conditions.

I dont want to read to much into the damp/wet jerez motogp becasue different riders were doing different race strategies but if some rain arrives I wouldnt be laying rossi at 6s and 7s.
By:
Pounf
When: 29 Apr 11 17:49
Agree Zazu - the weather conditions are massive in this sport. If wet Rossi and Simoncelli come right into the reckoning. Pedrosa has had a month but hasnt raced a race, I just dont think he`ll last the pace.

Its actually pouring down there right now.

Moto2 as you say only 16 recorded times in the damp so its next to meaningless. Takahashis kid brother died last week so he`ll be emotionally charged for this one, he goes ok in the wet so not a bad shout. But Moto2 is the bike equivalent of the Stewards Cup, so nothing would really surprise me.

125 - Oliveira and Vinales are the new kids on the block, and both worth a nibble for fun. Oliveira was running a bit ahead of Vinales last time in the wet when he fell off (in 3rd ) thats why I prefer him of the two. Cant believe how far ahead Terol is. I think only Faubel is capable of getting near him. Cortese cant start and always seems to get way behind early.
By:
Zazu
When: 29 Apr 11 19:26
Apart from a probable terol procession all races look good wet or dry


125s
There is some serious hype coming from spain about vinales and his career to date is pretty unreal.

Fast in all the tests and at jerez he started off slowly but then he was the fastest guy on track. (Only terols pace was anywhere near) He then sliced through about 4 riders to get into 3rd before his bike broke :(

If i get to bookies tomorrow ill back them both. 3 places, 1/5 odds, thats not going to be available in a few rounds time!



Moto2
only 23, Takahasi goes to the funeral next week.

Simon was always imperious in the wet back in his 125cc days but hasnt really produced in moto2. comes to something when you can back di meglio at 500/1 - thats a good wet weather rider and former 125cc world champion Shocked


Motogp
Simonchellis price is just ridiculus now. Same price as pedrosa and rossi in places, with Dovi available at 5x the price (his bike was broken at jerez)


Yes, he was leading when he crashed (which he does a lot!) but rossi was miles faster before he took out stoner.
Wouldnt surprise me to see any alien 'click' in the conditions and romp home. Should be a great race.
By:
Pounf
When: 29 Apr 11 20:48
Its surprising how many times you think its going to be wet and it isnt.

Moto2 Westy is the usual suspect if its wet, but last time he got to about 7th then went backwards, and Di Meglio just hasnt done anything in this class. Yet have had a touch on him before in the wet in the 125s.

Terol has enough in hand wet or dry

If dry the GP is between the top two for me, and I favour Lorenzo.
By:
bb66
When: 29 Apr 11 23:13
I doubt Iannone is worth a shout if it's wet, danger of him throwing away the bike is to big for me then
By:
Zazu
When: 30 Apr 11 06:24
like he did at jerez? Confused

Always a big risk when you back a crasher,  but in drying condtions here last year he was miles quicker than everyone else and proven multiple times he's capable of winning. wouldnt want to take any moto2 rider at short price when it could be dry, wet and/or changeable though.

what has happened to kenan sofuoglu Cry

If rather take pedrosa at 13/2 than the front 2
By:
Zazu
When: 30 Apr 11 14:02
sofuoglu at the sharp end in fp3 Blush

oliveria looking very strong in p3, should be a good battle with cortese and faubel for podium steps

motogp race is shaping up rather nicely as well Cool
By:
scarecrow
When: 30 Apr 11 14:32
simoncelli at about 6/1 has to be the value he has been quickest all weekend,i guess the market is factoring in the crash factor but with the possibility of dodgy weather around at the prices he is the obvious pick imo.....
By:
scarecrow
When: 30 Apr 11 14:39
simo 8/1 here now Shockedsomeones braver than me that looks huge!!!!,i guess we will see tomorrow but if he is not amongst it tomorrow i will be amazed.
By:
Zazu
When: 30 Apr 11 14:55
not as brave as bluesquares 9/2 casey stoner [:x]

JLos last stint was good but  5/4 is comical. 3 riders within a couple of 1/10ths, one of which has been flying all weekend and doesnt have realistic title chances to preserve!
By:
Zazu
When: 30 Apr 11 14:55
^^ weather says 70% rain as well
By:
scarecrow
When: 30 Apr 11 15:33
agreed jorge is to short stoner should not be written of,pedrosa looks to have a good race pace,simoncelli has flew all weekend and if it does rain well he will probably win or bin,but even if its dry he was the most impressive in practice imho.
By:
Pounf
When: 30 Apr 11 19:35
There`s a psychological barrier for Simoncelli and us to crack, ie to actually believe he can win.
Theres a very big chance he`ll be eating gravel again. I knew I should have backed him on Thursday (25/1) but I forgot, the crashing factor is too high to back him at these prices.
Lorenzo is short but he`s won here last 3 times I think and he`s hard to oppose. Stoner 3rd 6th 2nd dnf in last 4 years doesnt inspire. Pedrosa not fully fit for me. Rossi if he can get a decent start would be a danger.
By:
scarecrow
When: 30 Apr 11 19:40
i can only see rossi being a factor myself pounf if its wet,in the dry he is just not quick enough yet,i think he needs more time to get the ducati how he wants it but over the last few years only casey has gone well on a ducati so it may never work out for vale.
By:
Zazu
When: 30 Apr 11 20:44
pedrosa has said he is fully fit and wont know for certain until the race but is very confident. stoner has said he messed up all his hot laps but is happy with race pace.

dont think theres a pyschological barrier for simoncelli at all. he's simply a crasher. though he could be in the mix with dodgy weather but have been amazed at his pace this weekend

stoners 3-6-2-dnf doesnt tell the full story. He was sat on an animal of a ducati which didnt suit the circuit at all. esp in '08 (despite winning at qatar) the bike was pretty much unrideable until donnington 8

Full wet I still think stoner is the best rider on the planet.

Rossi has no chance in the dry but 10/1 at bet-doesnttakeabet-fred is ********* massive in mixed conditions.

apart from terol, tomorrows racing looks AMAZING Cool
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 01 May 11 06:21
scarecrow
30 Apr 11 15:39 Joined: 26 Jan 05 | Topic/replies: 4,892 | Blogger: scarecrow's blog
simo 8/1 here now someones braver than me that looks huge!!!!,i guess we will see tomorrow but if he is not amongst it tomorrow i will be amazed.



A surprisingly big price, I must agree.
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 01 May 11 07:10
Forecast as provided by PROVIDED BY Foreca "Sprinkles".

I think I know what sprinkles means.
By:
scarecrow
When: 01 May 11 07:48
alex as you know gambling is about value and with the weather forecast, the way simoncelli has ridden in the dry even despite the fact he is prone to bin it his price is just to big,i think a back to lay in running might be the way to go though for peace of mind with him!!!.anyway i have had a small dabble because i believe his chance is overpriced and win or lose believe he is a value bet at the prices.good luck all this old bore is of to the golf course Shocked
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 01 May 11 09:01
Warm up times.  Edwards is misleading as he was on slicks.

http://plixi.com/p/97675674
By:
bb66
When: 01 May 11 10:40
C'mon Andrea, you can do it!!
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 01 May 11 10:47
Not like that he won't
By:
Zazu
When: 01 May 11 11:58
what was Iannones starting price?

i fully exepected him to crash when passing simon or bradl but all on his own Laugh

going to watch motogp on eurosport at 3.30
cant stand BBC coverage and im expectin a classic Cool
(never want to watch the 125s after the main event as well)

@scarecrow i hate it when motogp weekends are sunny!
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 01 May 11 13:40
125s are crazy to bet on.  All we seem to be doing is betting on whether Terol will fall off.
By:
Zazu
When: 01 May 11 14:17
150/1 ew and ive been done by 2/1000ths Cry
By:
Zazu
When: 01 May 11 15:59
im pretty sure theyll be 'without terol' markets next race.
otherwise, its some good old fashioned each way theivery  Cool


casey in whinging shocker. with a few laps to go 'contemplating pulling into the pits' Laugh
is this the same casey who berates riders complaining about injuries Confused
By:
Pounf
When: 01 May 11 18:27
365 had a without Terol for this one
By:
bb66
When: 04 May 11 14:39
what does each way bet mean opposed to a usual winner's bet pls?
By:
Zazu
When: 05 May 11 08:58
been on here since '05 and dont know what each way is? Confused
By:
Pounf
When: 05 May 11 18:33
Each Way = 2 bets = one to win + one to be placed/podium. The odds for the place/podium are reduced as its more likely.
By:
bb66
When: 08 May 11 14:13
thanx! Where I'm from that bet isn't offered by bookies.
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