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HS007
14 Nov 10 00:32
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Date Joined: 13 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 5 | Blogger: HS007's blog
Have a look at 'Most race Wins'. Alonso can be backed at 1.37!
He has already won five races, Webber and Vettel have won four each.
The worst that can happen is a Dead Heat, paying out 50%.
This looks like a bet that can't lose, which is not natural.
What am I not seeing?
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Report Hansschmid November 14, 2010 3:19 AM GMT
A dead heat would reduce the win on Alonso by 50%.
Some punters would see the value of locking in a win NOW, and not take the risk of a 50% reduction should Webber or Vettel also win 5.
I placed a bet at 1.37 as I have no downside exposure but could see my potential win halve.
Report HS007 November 14, 2010 3:30 AM GMT
Thank you, Hansschmid
That explains why sometimes bets that can't lose are available.
If I had backed Alonso getting the most race wins when the odds were 12.50, I would happily share my sure profit for the security of not losing half of it if Webber or Vettel should Dead Heat with Alonso, a clear possibility.
I'll take all that is available.
Report HS007 November 14, 2010 4:36 AM GMT
I'll correct that.
Vettel has pole and is an aggressive front-runner, closing most opportunities for overtaking.
As the race progresses and Vettel looks like winning, I think that Alonso's backers will panic.
That means that the odds on a sure bet will expand.
I'll take the risk and wait until this happens.
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