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Jinxy's Trading Post Blog

Hitting the heights

18 Dec 11 14:45
The 'trading horse' I have confidence in today goes in the very last race of the day at Kempton Park on the all weather surface, a Kyllachy filly who has been available to trade in seven of her eight races so far, Amber Heights has also been available to trade in all four of her Polytrack encounters to date, three of them being on this course, she shouldnt be far away today and Amber Heights can be backed at 5.4 which will leave us needing in running lay off prices as follows, all to our normal stakes,

Lay off at 3.55 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 3.2 for a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 2.88 for a 1.7 all green profit

Also available at 1.92 in the place market.
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They dont come much lower

16 Dec 11 16:06
The 4.50 at Wloverhampton this afternoon is a really poor Class six 5 furlong sprint, not much depth to the race and even less quality. However in the Pat Eddery trained Wreningham we have a horse that is at least in good form and goes unpenalised for his win in an Apprentice Handicap a week ago at Southwell. He has won on Polytrack so the change in course should not be a problem. He has been available to trade in four of his last five races and should ne good enough to give us a maximum trade this afternoon. He is available to back at 2.9, different stakes to normal for this one as I really do fancy that he will trade odds on today. Backed at 2.9 - 2 points to win as normal, leaves us needing in running lay off prices at:

Lay off at 1.64 (3.5 pts)for a 1.5 all green or
Lay off at 1.42 (4 pts) for a 2pt all green profit or
Lay of at 1.01 !!
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Taking a chance..

15 Dec 11 23:36
Taking a chance perhaps but we are on such a good run at the moment that I'm thinking we can get a trade in the second race at Ascot tomorrow, the 1.20 race a Class Four Handicap Chase. The horse will be Osmosia. C Gordon has a fair strike rate of 15% with his Chasers this last year or so and Tom Cannon has a near 19% strike rate for the stable. Osmosia has been hurdling the last twice but prior to that the mare had ran two good races over the bigger obstacles, winning one and trading as low as 1.21 in the other. Osmosia is an honest and consistent mare who has been available to trade in each of her last twelve races and has traded down to odds on in her last six. The trade is not guaranteed as the obvious favourite, Drumlang, likes to be up there with the pace and may scupper our chances but looking at his previous attempt over fences at Towcester which was not that great, but of course he has changed stable since and bettered his previous form but I think that Osmosia has a better chance than the odds suggest tomorrow. Osmosia is available to back at 9 which leaves us needing an in running lay off price of:

Lay off at 5.9 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 5.3 for at least a 1.3 pt all green or
Lay off at 4.8 for a 1.7 all green profit.   
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Forkhandles?

15 Dec 11 17:45
The 6.30 at Kempton is a competitive looking Class Six Handicap. Rivas Raphsody could be anything but the horse that I think could well give us our fourth trade of the day is the Luke Morris ridden Forks, Luke won well on him last time, the form of that race has been given a boost and just having his third race on Polytrack there could be a little more to come from Forks. He has been available to trade in eight of his last ten races and four from five when on this surface or on good/firm. Luke Morris has the ride again tonight and will hopefully have the four year old gelding up with the pace approaching the two furlong marker allowing his price to drop far enough for us to green up. He is available to back at 7.4 which leaves us needing in running lay off prices of:

Lay off at 4.8 for at 1east a one point all green or
Lay off at 4.4 for a 1.3 all green profit or
Lay off at 3.95 for a 1.7 all green profit. 
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In need of WC

15 Dec 11 13:42
I like progressive types for trading purposes and at Southwell in the 2.00 this afternoon I think that the price of Mazji is high enough to be able to get us a trade. Mazji has come up quite a bit in the weights but as a three year old she is still entitled to improve further. Since winning a seller when rated 57 the mare has gone on to win a Class 6 off 59 and a Class Five Handicap off 70 (last time out) and has been raised just another 2lb for that victory. She has a place to her name over this course so handles the surface. Normally ridden up with the pace by WA Carson I hope that is the case again today. Available to back on the exchanges at 7.6 which leaves us needing in running lay off prices of:

Lay off at 5.0 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 4.5 for a for at least a 1.3 all green profit or
Lay off at 4.0 for at least 1.7 all green profit.
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Come on the irons

15 Dec 11 12:52
A horse who was looking all over the winner until blundering the last and had is jockey lose his irons for a few seconds is where I'm looking for a trade at Exeter this afternoon. Venetia Williams is not having a great time of it but Drumshambo, in the 1.20 at Exeter, is still open to more improvement and although this is a competitive Class Three he can go well enough for long enough to see his price tumble fare enough to give us an all green screen. His handicap mark has been left alone and he has been available to trade in six of his seven hurdle races to date. He has his normal jockey so normal tactics should be the way forward this afternoon and we can look forward to a decent trade. Available to back at 6.4 leaves us needing in running lay off prices as follows, 2 pts win then either:

Lay off at 4.2 for at least a 1 pt all green screen (stake 3.05 pts)or
Lay off at 3.8 for a 1.3 all green screen (stake 3.35 pts) or
Lay off at 3.4 for a 1.7 all green profit (stake 3.75 pts)
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Money in my Buckett please

15 Dec 11 11:06
Since being upped to three miles over fences this horse has traded down to even money or less in all four races from Betfair SP odds of as high as 32 and I hope that he will trade for us again today. He was close up and looking to challenge when he fell last time out, that though was his first run for 224 days and we can expect him to come on for that race in leaps and bounds. Upham Atom looks an out and out stayer over fences and this course and trip should suit him well. He can be held up in the early stages of a race so we may have to be patient for our trade and hope that the race pans out well for him. He is available to back on the exchanges at a price of 8.4 and still appears to be drifting, this would leave in running prices  needed of:

Lay off at 5.5 for at least a 1 pt all green or..
Lay off at 5.0 for at least a 1.3pt all green  or..
Lay off at 4.5 for at least a 1.7 pt all green profit.
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Opus or hopeless

14 Dec 11 14:02
Up in grade this afternoon may well say that Opus Maximus cannot win this afternoon but he may still go close at Lingfield in the next race at 2.10. A horse who comes late, so this course will suit better than most, a horse who trades normally, indeed in his last 15 races he has been available to trade fourteen times no less. He should go well enough today to at least threaten to challenge late on and may even place in this fairly poor race. Available to back at 9.8 leaves us needing in running lay prices of:

Lay off at 6.4 for a 1 pt all green screen or
Lay off at 5.8 for at least a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 5.2 for a 1.7 all green screen


Also back to place for half a point at 2.78
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The right stuff for a trade

13 Dec 11 19:33
Its not normally the way forward is trading on a race and taking a price the night before. But when when Billy Hills went a cracking price about a horse running on the all weather at Kempton tomorrow then I just couldn't resist taking what I hope will turn out to be a good price. In the 5.50 tomorrow evening Right Stuff can be at the forefront of the runners coming to the two furlong pole and drop enough in price to give us a decent trade. In five runs at Kempton on the all weather Right Stuff has yet to be out of the first three and you can add to that tally with two wins from four races on the all weather at Deauville. His last run at Kempton was in a class 2 race from a 1lb higher mark and he should find this a little easier.He has been in good form over hurdles of late and hopeful that can continue on the flat tomorrow. Tom Queally takes the mount for the first time. Backed at 7 leaves an in running lay off price of:

Lay off at 4.5 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 4.1 for at least a 1.3 all green profit or
Lay off at 3.7 for a 1.3 all green profit. 
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Here's hoping that we can surge to our 20th consecutive successful 'write up' trade. This afternoon in the 2.50 at Catterick the Martin Todhunter trained Storm Surge is the one I'm relying on for a decent trade this afternoon. Dropped back to a more suitable distance today and with the assistance of the 7lb claimer that is Lucy Alexander who has ridden to be available to trade on him the last twice then the the gelding should be prominent enough at the business end of the race to get us a trade. He has been available to back at 9/1 this morning at Skybet and is  still available on betfair at 9.6. I'm hoping that this one will drop in price during the day back over this trip. Storm Surge has been available to trade in nine of his last ten races, the only time he didn't trade was after a 118 day lay off. Todhunter has his string in decent form, lets hope for a nice trade here. Backed at 10 (9/1) leaves me needing an in running lay off price of:

Lay off at 6.4 for at least a 1 pt all green profit or
Lay off at 5.9 for at least a 1.3 all green profit or
Lay off at 5.3 for at least a 1.7 all green screen.
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