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RoyalAcademy
13 Feb 19 11:14
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Date Joined: 05 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 1,353 | Blogger: RoyalAcademy's blog
I am forever trying to figure out the best (if there is such a thing) method of staking when it comes to a double-figure horse I fancy.

I'm liking a 16/1 (14/1) shot and i am confident it's quietly fancied as it has not traded beyond 20 on BF. It's a maiden hurdle - with an obvious hotpot - and I reckon its a decent shout to place with a chance of upsetting the fav. 1/5 odds, 1,2,3.

Most likely result, if I'm to collect, is a second or third placing and I'f I'm all-in I'll probably be annoyed afterwards for not preserving my bank better.

I have €300 to stake and I consider:

1. Win-only, as advocated by many (my long term record on outsiders shows a profit, win only)
2. €150 e/w
3. Place bet to cover return of total stake
4. Place only (where trading is usually sharp and SP e/w of 3.2(2.8)/1 is only 15/8 on BF)
5. Trading not an option as horse unlikely to shorten from time I place stake.

Opinions welcome.
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Report pa lapsy February 13, 2019 12:20 PM GMT
Aware of the win only arguments,doubling your stake on your example for place only isn't much to get excited about.Suppose it comes down it risk adversity and we are all different.
Being a smaller backer always been straight ew with me though a top up on win only might have happened on exchange,simply as i expect it to run well.
Another option which could have been included in your list is a look at the W/O  market. In a maiden hurdle quite probaby a shortish fav,say Evens, likely your selection is 6/1.maybe 7/1 good chance of have 4 places then.
Report peckerdunne February 13, 2019 12:33 PM GMT
I can't see the make up
Report peckerdunne February 13, 2019 12:33 PM GMT
I can't see the make up
Report peckerdunne February 13, 2019 12:44 PM GMT
Sorry tablet

I think I have a fair idea of selection.

I've always been a fan of option one,rarely going ew, can look for the ew double on occasion depending on shape of races.

I have however found the 4 place option above evens favourable to return stake if I feel the need.

The policy of win only mostly prevails, just depends a little on how your bank has been moving of late.

Best of luck.
Report pa lapsy February 13, 2019 1:09 PM GMT
I think so too, the w/o option is 15/2 against now 12/1 and that is with an 11/10 fav.

Good luck.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 14, 2019 2:51 PM GMT
Option 6. How about 300 @evens on the fav ? Devil
Report kincsem February 14, 2019 3:14 PM GMT
Win only.
The higher the odds the higher the stake.
Stay away from odds-on and low priced horses (~4/1).
Exchange only.
Report peckerdunne February 14, 2019 4:12 PM GMT
Agree with above almost completely. 3/1 is my minimum single price..
Report RoyalAcademy February 18, 2019 11:57 AM GMT
Thanks for the replies.
I've taught myself a lot of patience and discipline over the years but this vexed question of win/place/without/each-way/trade is always a tough one. I can always backfit the correct answer to the result of course!

Another long-priced placed horse over the weekend is beaten by a better handicapped runner and I'm tearing my hair out in frustration as I'm on win-only. Long losing runs a consequence of playing at long odds and I think that's the real lesson I have to learn. I like the kincsem model as its fairly no-nonsense.

I must say I'm happy to see Nicholls back with a bang as he's good value compared to the drawing room civility that the big trainers display here - GE has to defer to his power house owner and WPM is the ultimate cap-doffer. I can see Elliott dominating like never before at Cheltenham this year and its hard to know how Willie will fare.
Report peckerdunne February 19, 2019 10:28 AM GMT
The comfort is in your strike rate.
Report kincsem February 19, 2019 11:26 PM GMT
By long odds I mean 40s+
I love a hot favourite that can't get beat. Plain
If you do your money on a big odds horse the stake probably won't be crippling.

Anything Japanese I like, and they have a filly the superstars of all superstars going for the Arc in 2019.
I believe it set a record time on a concrete track, but it won't be running on concrete.
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