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workrider
04 Feb 17 22:04
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Date Joined: 29 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 31,512 | Blogger: workrider's blog
He is by far the greatest NH jockey I've ever seen,and I've seen most of them in my time.When I put my money down on one of his,its like putting a lighter to it,he either falls, gets brought down, or runs out.Now if perchance I happen to lay him,he hoses up.As you can gather he's no friend to me,tomorrow I'm going to burden him with my nap,The Crafty Butcher has the form and is well weighted,in fact I'd say Ruby wouldn't mind if he had a few more pounds on his back ,he's had a strange campaign if truth be told and tomorrow should be his day.Robin Thyne is my nb,a course winner he's been running well against some nice horses, always looked to me he'd make a better chaser than hurdler and the step up in trip will suit,Davy a plus as well.Bonny Kate a lovely mare,she looks sure to be involved tomorrow and her Gowran run should have brought her on.
Happy Punting.

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Replies: 25
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 05 Feb 17 00:36
The crafty butcher is a poor price, and not a great horse if truth be told, hasn't won under rules in 3 years and is 4 from 38,not one to be taking a short price about.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 05 Feb 17 00:44
I did Oscar Sam ew earlier w/o TCB @ 11/1, hopeful rather than confident.

I understand the looking for raising of the weights concerning TCB regarding chasing and in particular the National but this seemingly pertempts route looks a small bit leftfield to me though could well work.
By:
padlock
When: 05 Feb 17 07:06
F Ruby imo
By:
slickster
When: 05 Feb 17 12:43
A contradiction, if ever there was one, from the mixed up one.
Greatest NH jockey ever? Guy should retire. The amount of last fence/hurdle falls he's had over the last 2 years is embarrassing.... And needs some explaining!
By:
dj876
When: 05 Feb 17 13:15
The crafty butcher was 5/2 -11/4 overnight which was extraordinarily short for a 20 runner competitive handicap.

The stablemates have flip flopped in the betting with Isleofhopeandreams carrying half a stone less than Ruby's minimum weight.

Oscar Sam was second in this race last year and is 11lbs higher this year but Harrington's horses are running well (streaky stable).

Third in this race last year was the festival Pertempts winner Mall Dini, his connections are represented here by Presenting Percy who runs of an almost identical mark to Mall Dini did last year.

Russell would have the choice but wouldn't make 10-5 and suspect he would more than likely be on presenting percy if possible.

Gallant Oscar also isn't out of it either back over hurdles after running on late at Cork. However minimum riding weight could also be a contributory factor here.

Very competitive race and the nature of the race makes it even trickier.
By:
Arklearkle
When: 05 Feb 17 13:31
I would imagine most here would need to win to get in at Cheltenham
By:
dj876
When: 05 Feb 17 13:37
Incorrect, Mall Dini (129) was third in this last year, Oscar sam (127) was second and both ran in the Pertempts at the festival.

135 would get you in and the English handicapper generally adds 5-7lbs, so 129 -130 over here would get you in and the top half a dozen already have higher ratings than that.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 05 Feb 17 14:20
Hindsight is z marvellous thing but Isleofhopeanddreams was a fair bet despite it being a big field handicap.
Think Phil Smith would be unfair though if racing at more than 133/4 at the festival.
By:
Arklearkle
When: 05 Feb 17 14:54
Yes I should have included placed horses also but the cut-off to get in at the festival has been rising and together with the English handicapper's adjustments we cant be 100% certain. If the Pertemps final had been run this morning I reckon only the top 3 would have have been CERTAIN to get in. Of course if the cut off remains the same and the handicapper raises 7 lbs the top 8 in todays race would get in.
By:
Arklearkle
When: 05 Feb 17 14:58
Pa if he wants to run he may need one or two pounds more but I'd reckon PS will oblige! PS adds 5-7 lbs in his mind before he starts
By:
pa lapsy
When: 05 Feb 17 15:17
I'd say nothing surer Arkle,119 before today,7lb for that,126, say the obligatory 6lb, 132, i won't be surprised to see 138/9 from him,we'll see but i got an impression(from Ask the handiapper) PH is favouring "home" horses (Rashaan was the case in point from that programme). We'll see and may well be wrong but i've the mental note in for next month to be wary with Irish ones.
By:
Arklearkle
When: 05 Feb 17 15:31
Pa it has been generally accepted that there is a 5-7 difference between the ratings (dont know how this arose originally) but tbf the Irish horses have been still winning plenty of races. As a matter of interest Ninetieth Minute got in at one pound lower for the Coral Cup in 2009. We know what happened then but there havent been many. I did not see Ask The Handicapper but was he indicating that the adjustment would be increased?
By:
pa lapsy
When: 05 Feb 17 15:47
Think it was Callit that gave the reason for the 5-7lb adjustment,can't remember what it was but it made sense.
Rashaan is rated 139 but was given 152(nearly certain) for next weeks handicap at Newbury,PS was very evasive for the reason for the discrepancy,one of his arguments was he had to be fair to all(?????). He didnt give a straight answer.
It seemed to me he can do what he wants rather than the more established guidelines of say 7lb for a comfotable enough win.
I can understand it at times with Martin and even Willie and Gordon but it also implies the irish handicapper is inept.
By:
by purpose
When: 05 Feb 17 17:14
Your out on your own Wonky.You even called it.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 05 Feb 17 21:29
^ to be fair everyone has rotten days like that,TCB one of them things and as game as Bonny kate is she just seems to be bumping into one.

Arkle, below is a link to a bha blog how and where they got that rating for Rashaan,i can understand it to an extent though i would tend to think an early season race may give a false result, a very substantial difference all the same between both sets of handicappers.

www.britishhorseracing.com/rashaan-handicapper-explains/
By:
padlock
When: 06 Feb 17 06:50
Did Ruby put you away again? F Ruby
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 11 Feb 18 00:20
NO RUBY TO WORRY ANY rider 2MORO (so we'll rely da crafty sister-in-law).....as Enda said, "it's great to have Nina back riding over fences". Devil

1.40 Cantlow 11/4
2.40 Riders Onthe Storm 5/2
3.45 Gilgamboa 4/6
4.20 Spider Web 11/1


€2,630.30 for a ten spot in the Paddy Poor house.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 11 Feb 18 00:20
Wink
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 11 Feb 18 00:41
THE BIG ONE 2moro is at 4.20

The 3m.4f.150yds. Spoil Sports Grand National Trial Handicap Steeplechase (Grade B) of €100,000.00
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 11 Feb 18 01:29
THE THREE shorties pay 73.5 with hill billys

2.10 Kesselring 1/1
3.45 Gilgamboa 4/6
4.50 Getaway John 6/5
Devil
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 11 Feb 18 01:30
Wink
By:
workrider
When: 11 Feb 18 12:04
Honestly can't see Kessering staying the trip though Willie thinks it will, got Cartwright totally wrong yesterday, I also thought he wouldn't get home...Blush
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 11 Feb 18 12:46
Say hi to Dick
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 11 Feb 18 12:51
HAD FEW SINGLES AND DOUBLES/REV4CAST/ON MY SUNDAY FANCIES/GOOD LUCK PUNTERS Crazy
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 11 Feb 18 18:26
Well done to Formscan's Eamonn Murphy who earlier wrote - "We saw Gordon Elliott successfully switch Goodthynemilan from fences to hurdles at Thurles during the week, and he attempts a feat somewhat similar with Swingbridge (2nd) earlier on this programme. This time it's hurdles to fences for a Cullentra House Stables inmate, with FOLSOM BLUE back on home soil after a commendable effort at Sandown last Saturday ('while Geraghty tries to get Elliott out of Folsom prison in Sandown' - a Grade 3 H/cap Hurdle)). The Old Vic gelding did well in fourth place at the Esher venue, as he was in against several up and comers, and the winner then, Topofthegame (Paul Nicholls/Sam T-Davis), is a horse that we could here plenty more about in the months and years ahead. Champion tipster and Attheraces head man, Gary O'Brien, is of course part of the Core Partnership that own Folsom Blue, and it's interesting that himself and Elliott now try fences for the first time since the eleven-year-old came into their care."
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