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mincer11
24 Dec 16 17:13
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 3,016 | Blogger: mincer11's blog
Dont see the need to regurgitate  an old Stephens Day  thread by the resident loon so thought it would be prudent to start up a seperate one. I really dont see the point in having 4 pages from last year that has no bearing on what is going to happen non Monday.
Some terrific racing and really looking forward to it.
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Report The Gotchee December 24, 2016 5:28 PM GMT
Why don't you give us your thoughts and fancies pre race.
You tend to come on here and give us a review and sla/g off every jockey and trainer.
You are a Mr. Hindsight type of character who has an obsession with stating the obvious.
Give us one winner that is not a odds on favourite and you might be taken seriously.
Report Arklearkle December 24, 2016 6:00 PM GMT
I agree Mincer we should have a new thread for this year. Unfortunately you opened one for next year!
Report mincer11 December 24, 2016 6:11 PM GMT
I did indeed Arkle, apologies.
Report neill d December 24, 2016 6:45 PM GMT
1:30 Kempton: Like the booking of Johnson for Poker School, won well in the end last time.

2:05 Kempton: Think Anibale Fly could be in a different class to Froden and Present Man who look very workmanlike to me.

12:25 Limerick: Kevin O'Ryan (the little fcker) gave Lachares (fifth at Cork behind that good Gigginstown winner that wasn't fancied) a massive mention in the first at Limerick on ATR yesterday. Hopefully he takes after Manduro and has that German ability of getting through the ground.

2:00 Limerick: The ground cannot be what Diamond King wants, makes Bellshill a bet for me at 4/5 in a race Mullins often targets one of his best at.

12:15 Leopardstown: Reading here that Mullins is a bit behind, I'll be with Outspoken in the first. Joseph will have really targeted this meeting you'd think and hopefully this smart ex-flat performer has been held back for this after one run as a juvenile hurdler.

12:45 Leopardstown: Felix Mendelssohn, for similar reasons to the above. Coming from a good yard like Simcock, wouldn't have thought they'd mess around too much with a Hay horse, can find out a lot here and go back to the flat if it doesn't work out.

1:15 Leopardstown: Not sure Landofhopeandglory is getting the credit for his last win, worried by the price I can see but I'll stick with him.

1:50 Leopardstown: Artful Artist, Russell and Martin and errr, I liked the way it jumped at Limerick!

2:20 Leopardstown: Min, contradicting myself here a little, but Identity Thief strikes me as the type of horse that is never there when you want him. Pat Keane really rates this guy, Min. I think I read somewhere that Mullins or ruby said he was not in the same league as Douvan or Vautour; few ever will be and if you look at the prices of the Mullins horses for the Cheltenham novice events this year, you'll kind of get the sense that nothing lasts forever. A guy in town told me categorically Min wouldn't win the supreme novices (told me the same about Fly that year and was right), guessing that Min who is a tall narrow horse might have gone a little weak on them as he never ran after Cheltenham either. Can see him putting up a monstrous display from the front this time.

I'll be interested to see how Tully East runs; I don't know if it is Connell pushing that he runs here, but it might be an insight into Fleming's judgement.

2:55 Leopardstown: Ball D'Arc, always thought this guy was going to be a 140+ chaser, but have a feeling Coolaghknock Glebe has been laid out for this and will take it from the bottom of the weights. He was a 125 hurdler, might be ready to do better over fences now than he has before, I go with him.

3:30 Leopardstown: Meade needs to be availing of the fact there is no Mullins runner here, Leopardstown Christmas, big card, big browd; he should have Fly Rory Fly ready here. Wouldn't be sure about the form of Midnight Escape's maiden hurdle third even though I had thought Brelade was a nice horse.

Enjoy Christmas lads, I've to go to Mass now!
Report neill d December 24, 2016 6:50 PM GMT
I backed Yanworth the other week as well, if the Tent wins I'll cry!
Report workrider December 24, 2016 9:34 PM GMT
Six for Monday .
Leop.12.45. Castello Sforza, looked a little hairy the last day , sure to have come on for that.
Identity Thief, 2.20. Top class hurdler that's brought his class to chasing.
Ball D'arc. 2.55. This fellow has been the bain of my punting this year, keeps a little for himself but a surefire winner in the making.
LK. 1.25. Champagne Classic ran a cracker the last day, can give the weight away here.
DR. 1.20  Foxrock. One last chance for him, he could have fallen out of love with the game, but has the class to stuff these on his day.
The Storyteller 1.55. Should have won the last day,not Jacks finest ride,taken to make amends here.
Happy Punting .
Report Bigwillystyle December 25, 2016 12:50 AM GMT
Wonks save your money.Identity Thief won't get within 5 L of Min. Not even being considered for the Arkle apparently!!!!
Report Arklearkle December 25, 2016 4:02 PM GMT
Pretty certain that Min got injured during the Supreme novices race so I always assumed he was better than he showed in that race
Report tony57 December 25, 2016 6:08 PM GMT
min got beat last year by the better horse imo..and will get beat again if they face eachother..altior is a real monster!
12.45 castello sforza @6/4
lost nothing in defeat on debut i think the mullins runner will have come on the race!
2.55 riviera sun @5/1 was unlucky lto, im chancing the rain will come as the softer the better..
2.05 kempton, anibale fly 3/1 think this fella may be too good for this field, martins form is a worry but if it runs to its drinmore form it will take the beating..
2.25 wetherby solomn grundy 3/1, has by farb the better form in this race lto @newbury was a fine run and i think this one is still well handicapped..
12.30 sedgefield justforjames @6/4 nap
won over cd beating 2 lto winners cd form comes to the fore at this track and trainers horses are now just starting to run better, this one gets no penalty for that win as it was a boys race..
Report CALLING CARD December 25, 2016 7:03 PM GMT
leopardstown
1) oathkeeper has the best form but his absence a worry,bunk off early by Zebedee whose progeny usually excel over shorter trips and imperial way are the top 3 in the market. I will chance no brainer ew as his run at mallow was ok until he tired over the last 2
2)joey sasa returns quickly after a good run at navan over a shorter trip , castella Sforza ran very well despite a few mistakes at fairyhouse and barra whose 2nd to invite only looked good on the day but his run last week causes concern over the form . felix fto and loughaderra are interesting but I side with experience in the shape of joey sasa stepped up in trip
3) PROVIDED a good gallop I will play Elliots runners strongly and make a mega fortune
4)ARTFUL ARTIST could be thrown in but I will chance an ever improving FRUITS OF GLORY
5)MIN PURE AND SIMPLE
6)can history repeat itself with DYSIOS if not JAYPEE has 2 goods shots at it
7)GRANT MERCER's colours will be carried to success in an average stephens day bumper imo
down royal
first race is a very competitive affair and I will lay ART OF PAYROLL
second and third races don't catch my interest
the storyteller is due a win and his experience might count
turbojet and racing stripes are of interest but no bet for me
even though his preferred amateur is sidelined I think paddy twomey will make the long trip worthwhile considering the ptown race has worked out
limerick
Bellshill is a star and will hopefully prove so tomorrow
uk wise the KG is a good match and I hope the novice will prevail
fulgus at huntington is a speculative ew punt
yanworth and Jenkins a strong double
happy punting people
Report Bigwillystyle December 25, 2016 7:38 PM GMT
I'm afraid you are wrong Tony! Min is a massively improved horse on last year by all accounts and will bolt up tomorrow.

Would advise you to take the price for the Arkle!
Report The Gotchee December 25, 2016 8:59 PM GMT
Good luck Littlewillie
Report tony57 December 25, 2016 10:11 PM GMT
no thanks bws..im well happy with hendos monster
Report workrider December 26, 2016 8:39 AM GMT
Plenty of choices to be getting on with , weather looks as if it might hold up for the next couple of days as well, so its onwards and upwards .
Report norn iron December 26, 2016 9:21 AM GMT
GOOD RACING THREAD THINK ITS POOR CARD LEOP AND APART FROM THE TWO AT KEMPTON I THNK ITS POOR OVERALL BUT ANYWAY TRY FEW

KEMP

GLARING   RAN GROUP RACES IN FRANCE  (BACKED IT 50/1 WINNER LTO )

POKER SCHOOL VERY IMPRESSIVE WHEN GAMBLED LTO (TWO TAFFS DANGER ONE FOR NTO POSS)

ANNIBAE FLY   SAVER AMORE ALATO 

YANWORTH

THISTLE CRAIC

LISHALEEN LASS   SAVER BIG CHIEF BENNY EW

HUNNTINGDON

RED AMIRABLE EW 155

PRYSHAN  NAP  230  EYECATCHER LTO ID SAY NO handbrake TODAY

WETHERBY

DEFINITLEY RED     SAVER OUR KEMPLAER

LEOP

GENEVA BARRACKS EW
FELIX MENDELSON EW
ARTFUL ARTIST LOOKS CHUCKED IN  AND DAVY NOT ON CHARLES HORSE  SAVER TOP OTHE  RA

IDENTIY THIEF

DANDRIRDGE  AND CASSELLS ROCK EWS

LIMERICK

PRESENTING MAHLER EW

KNOCKRAHA BOSS EW

DOWN ROYAL 

BABY BACH  NICE school LTO

TAMLOUGH BAY 

CANADIEN STEEL

COOKING AGAIN NEED BROWNIE POINTS AS OF TO CHELT NEWYEARSDAY

PS WORKRIDER LOST ALL MOBILE CONTACTS  BUT WENT TO CHURCH XMAS  EVE AND MASS Shocked XMAS DAY BUT IN THE HUNT FOR DEVINE HELP CANT SEE  IT DOING ME ANY HARMSurprised

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS AND HOPE FOR FEW WINNERS (IVE CERTAINLY THREW PLENTY DARTS SO DINNER SERVED AT 345 AFTER I WIN LOADSWink)
Report workrider December 26, 2016 9:25 AM GMT
Laugh Tying your colors too every mast I see, that's called hoping for the best ,we ring you when I get back from Leopardstown .
Report norn iron December 26, 2016 9:50 AM GMT
ONLY ONE GOD !!!!!(EVEN FOR dup)  BITTER COLD UP HERE IN GODS COUNTRY Wink


RICHARD JOHSTON GOT 4 DECENT CHANCES AT KEMP
Report newapproach December 26, 2016 11:37 AM GMT
No Brainer looks to have a decent e/w chance in the first @ Leopardstown. A lot of his rivals have question marks over them, Outspoken has had a long lay off, Mullins making his debut and most others having their first run over hurdles. No Brainer has had 2 decent enough runs over hurdles and the better ground might suit him today compared to Mallow last time. 8/1 looks a reasonable e/w price.

I also hope to see Landofhopeandglory confirm form with his rivals today. He has looked a natural over hurdles so far and showed admirable guts to get up last time @ Fairyhouse. Due to market support for his rivals, he has drifted out to 9/4 and that looks a very generous price in my book.
Report tony57 December 26, 2016 3:53 PM GMT
the nap won..unlucky with one beat a nose..but anibale fly was awful?castello forza disappointing..its along holiday...
Report CheltenhamRoar December 26, 2016 6:12 PM GMT
I'd expect to see landofhopeandglory go backwards now like most the ex flat bred horses, glaring example been ivanovic gorbatov who wouldn't win a seller round cartmel now
Report pa lapsy December 27, 2016 11:28 AM GMT
Awesome performance from Thislecrack yesterday, jumped very well and looks at least half a stone better than anything in UK.
Min was very good,no way would Identity Thief would have won on the day,got a lot of praise for his jumping but i wasn,t convinced there,Ruby had a rare reaction all the same.
Call Vinnie 1.35 Lim is a combination of a bit one paced and luckless,still no surprise to see a bit of money for him as looks a solid ew.
Report huddys December 27, 2016 11:54 AM GMT
Done a trixie
Some Neck 12:00 limerick 2/1
Riven light 1:55 leopardstown 2/1
aso  3:15 cheptow 7/4.

Backed otago trail in the paddy power e/w,
Report kavvie December 27, 2016 11:58 AM GMT
im intrested to know what you dindt like about mins jumping pa?  i thoght bar the last slightly he was flawless?
Report workrider December 27, 2016 12:07 PM GMT
AT LAST......
Report pa lapsy December 27, 2016 12:18 PM GMT
Some Neck was impressive there alright,stayer and heavy brought out a bit better, good shot WR/huddys.
I just didn't think it was very natural Kavvie,it was for want of a better expression fast and low like a hurdler, only an impression but think if it mkes a mistake at Chelt,it will almost certainly be on the floor,i've been wrong before though.
Report kavvie December 27, 2016 12:28 PM GMT
fair enough pa.i just thought it was a good display of jumping but ill bear in mind what you said.ruby seemed impressed.worryingly tho pp are biggest for arkle at 7/2
Report pa lapsy December 27, 2016 12:34 PM GMT
Fierce engine all the same so won't put you off if you were thinking of doing him Kavvie,you could probably get a cheapish place lay on the day as insurance in any case.
Report kavvie December 27, 2016 12:46 PM GMT
ive him done at 8s.ill prob place lay him if he gets there in one piece.
Report tony57 December 27, 2016 1:59 PM GMT
think nico just nailed it on c4 about min v altior "we had this last year, do we need to do it again"
Report Bigwillystyle December 27, 2016 3:49 PM GMT
Tony pipe down!

If Mullins takes on Altior again there will be only one result and it won't be Altior winning.
Report neill d December 27, 2016 4:14 PM GMT
I'd say Ruby will reference that line from Nico somewhere along the line. I remember (I think )in 2010 when Brennan won on Imperial Commander, I think he made some comment along the lines of Paddy Brennan being tight with money!
Report CheltenhamRoar December 27, 2016 4:23 PM GMT
Altior should have remained over hurdles, he's beating nothing over fences to date, he's flat bred his form will tail off over fences.
Can anybody name a flat bred horse who was actually went to the top over fences, I can't think of any I'm sure there's at least one
Report wildmanfromborneo December 27, 2016 4:28 PM GMT
Red Rum
Alverton
Report neill d December 27, 2016 4:32 PM GMT
Synchronised maybe, The Giant Bolster!
Report wildmanfromborneo December 27, 2016 4:56 PM GMT
Synchronised was a home bred,few people would send a Bob Back mare to Saddlers Wells least of all a hurdler.
Bob Back managed to sire a St Leger winner in Bobs Return.

I'm actually making Cheltenham Roars point by going back forty years to produce two flatbreads.

All also acknowledge Red Rum was just a freak of nature.
Report CustomCut December 27, 2016 5:31 PM GMT
Dodging Bullets is a complete flat bred. Altior's dam was a NH horse and he looks a huge NH monster can't see why anyone would hold breeding against him.
Report CustomCut December 27, 2016 5:32 PM GMT
As for beating nothing over fences Charbel is hardly nothing, the race he won at Uttoxeter could hardly be working out any better.
Report Arklearkle December 27, 2016 6:56 PM GMT
Red Rum was a handicapper and Dodging Bullets won one of the worst champion chasers ever. Altior was very impressive in the Supreme but I would expect Min to turn the form around in the Arkle.
Report TellTheKing December 27, 2016 8:38 PM GMT
It’s quite probable that Min didn’t run to his best in the Supreme for physical reasons. He has also been very good so far over fences.

That being said, Altior will eat Min in the Arkle and should be odds on. It’s being built as a match (largely this side of the sea) but it likely won’t even be that close come March.
Report CustomCut December 27, 2016 8:41 PM GMT
They're still flat breds who loved fences. It seems absurd to cling to breeding when he has more scope than the vast majority of NH horses and has shown great agility over fences.

I loved Min yesterday but when it comes to his injury in the supreme, I can't have this idea that it's caused him big problems in the race. If he was really feeling it he would have been tailed off.
Report TellTheKing December 27, 2016 8:57 PM GMT
It’s also pointless mentioning that Altior is flat bred because he is not. Rather the dam was just sent to a high class stallion who would be capable of firing better horses than most full time NH horses.

Look at the size and scope of Altior, he is built on springs. It’s a far cry from, say, something by Bushranger or Lawman trying to reach the top over fences.
Report TellTheKing December 27, 2016 9:07 PM GMT
As for top class flat bred chasers, the shortlist would be pretty short for obvious enough reasons.

Not sure of their pedigrees but brothers Viking Flagship & Flagship Uberalles both ran as 2yo’s I believe so they must have been pretty precocious.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan December 4, 2018 2:06 PM GMT
Arklearkle • December 24, 2016 6:00 PM GMT
I agree Mincer we should have a new thread for this year. [i]Unfortunately you opened one for next year!
[/i]


Whoops What do you expect Devil
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