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07 Dec 16 18:42
Date Joined: 30 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 21,252 | Blogger: wildmanfromborneo's blog
A right little maiden coming up.
Thomas OMalley unlucky last time out but could be a thinker.
Nam trained by Thomas Mullins ran a race of some promise in Leopardstown,is owned by his wife so a filly with a for sale sign on her.
Looks overpriced to me.
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Report dj876 December 7, 2016 7:20 PM GMT
I didn't see this race but a general question do you still think Dundalk is a fantastic betting medium.

I can understand the consistent surface and relatively decent prize money but to me it's horrible racing.

As a very casual observer, the vast majority of handicaps there would have a different winner every time the race is ran.

I'd say the likes of PP love it on a Friday evening, massive sp manipulation and lads throwing away their Friday evening wages on it.

I wouldn't agree with you that the market is very accurate there either. I was asked to go a couple of Friday evenings ago, no chance can't understand how people enjoy it all. 40% of NH favourites won during the month of November.
Report by purpose December 7, 2016 7:37 PM GMT
Good job Halpin didn,t hold on to it Pat.What is the point of interviewing these guys.
Report mincer11 December 7, 2016 8:07 PM GMT
It's a horrible dive and anyone who wins money there punting , certainly deserves it.
Dj, don't hold your breath waiting for a climbdown from Dan, he will probably not respond but if he does, a u turn is unlikely.
Report dj876 December 7, 2016 8:21 PM GMT
I think it's shocking racing at Dundalk and don't follow it

I have gotten over Wildman's stubborness and expect it but it's his defense of the indefensible that grates.

Encouraging numpties is the scourge of the forum, they maybe harmless but they pop up on every thread with gibberish and it's pointless trying to explain anything to them. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but when they can't follow anything it's annoying.

One fellow on here is like a hyperactive child, you could just imagine him at the race track chasing around "Gordon" and "Noel"
Report mincer11 December 7, 2016 8:38 PM GMT
Encouraging them but at the same time keeping his distance is his speciality . For two forumites to be so friendly, and both regular attendees at the racecourse's , yet they never have met is so peculiar. Particularly when one of the parties has his tongue out with years, waiting for a rendezvous.
Report by purpose December 7, 2016 9:08 PM GMT
What a dump.Imagine laying Heavy Weight and looking at it beat 3 times and still wins.Its no wonder they have 24 hour help lines.
Report pa lapsy December 7, 2016 9:15 PM GMT
Funny how little things bother people, Mincer i know i would be a fairly private person myself.
Anyway it was a thread put up with the evenings racing,whether any interest in the place is up to yourself,it was just that.
The point made that Thomas O'Malley was a bit of a "thinker" was very right.
Report mincer11 December 7, 2016 9:16 PM GMT
One of the reasons it won is because most of the vermin that are riding the ones behind it are actually on it.
Short priced favs in what appear difficult looking handicaps are definitely not for laying by the looks of things. If they don't win, they are rarely far away. The favs in the maidens are the ones to be laying, as there are more triers than you'd expect in a lot of the races.
Report by purpose December 7, 2016 9:26 PM GMT
Thomas O,Malley unlucky last time but a bit of thinker.Is that not 2 bites of the cherry Pa.If it wins im right and gets beat im right.
Report pa lapsy December 7, 2016 9:32 PM GMT
Doubt very much there was meant to be a double meaning BP,very hard to say with certainty anything with racing,it looked the most likely winner obviously as fav and form but was surprised how much he "thinked",myself. The man just started a racing thread.
Report Ozymandius December 7, 2016 9:42 PM GMT

Thanks for having my back in my absence, Picewise Pa.
Report CALLING CARD December 7, 2016 9:44 PM GMT
mincer ur buddies the fatman and de valira luv the place. they interview everybody and make loads of dough I hear
its a khazi of the highest order no doubt but a high proportion of jollies collect for sure
Report by purpose December 7, 2016 9:49 PM GMT
Only one person knows that Pa.As for being a "thinker".Pure useless is what he is.
Report Eddie Batt December 7, 2016 11:06 PM GMT
All weather racing is run for the benefit of the big bookies -the average punter hasn't a hope,the above average punter doesn't have a hope.  The giggilo who posts on here sometimes has a fantastic record but if you have to depend on crumbs from another mans table you should be finding something else to do.
Report roadrunner46 December 8, 2016 12:04 AM GMT
have to disagree eddie, if you are an above average punter and specialize on the AW its very lucrative betting on the AW, wouldnt bother with dundalk with its large fields all the time, waste of time reading that form,i would agree if you have to depend on crumbs form another mans table you should be finding something else to do. but there will always people prepared to follow others if they are profitable in the long term.
if you put the effort in, the rewards will follow. im in the transition from just searching for winners to looking for value bets instead, takes time to unlearn bad habits but you get there in the end with persistence.
Report wildmanfromborneo December 8, 2016 1:09 AM GMT
Its hard to please ye all.
I marked down Nam after his Leopardstown run,I saw it running in Dundalk against what I considered a thinker so just shared my thoughts.

I didnt lay Thomas OMalley because I've lost heavily laying.
I changed my mind about bookmaking over the laying,I developed a grudging respect for layers.

I still think there is money to be made punting in Dundalk
This is based on outsiders don't seem to count up there.

I'm a recreational punter but I still feel that someone prepared to put in the work has a chance up there.
The track and conditions are constant.

By Purpose referred to Heavy Weight in the last,it looked a crazy price to me yet still they collected,this is a feature of Dundalk.

I know ye hate anecdotal evidence but I have a drink on a Friday night and I watch the punters that DJ876 have contempt for,the ones Mincer would laugh at but they seem to be winning in Dundalk and these gentlemen think Arkle had three letters in his name.

The old card playing rule applies here,I doubt there is a single layer on here winning in Dundalk,I doubt there is any layer winning in Dundalk.
Report cloone river December 8, 2016 1:33 AM GMT
I say the layers on track make it pay to sp of 130%.
Report wildmanfromborneo December 8, 2016 1:39 AM GMT
The SPs are scandalous as are the late shows but the fact is there are less layers in Dundalk than any racetrack in Ireland.
Another factor is there are no big layers,they all ran away.
Report by purpose December 8, 2016 11:01 AM GMT
You would have to conclude that if people are prepared to take what looks a terrible price a horse in a lowly handicap that they know a lot more than the likes of me sitting at home.Will run with you on that one Borneo about pub punters getting winners there on Fridays nights because the roof comes off my local two or three times at least when i seem to go out.May as well be cartoon racing but they seem well able to have there scores and fortys on winners.I will have to walk away from the place because its the road to palookaville for me.
Report dj876 December 8, 2016 8:14 PM GMT
"I know ye hate anecdotal evidence but I have a drink on a Friday night and I watch the punters that DJ876 have contempt for,the ones Mincer would laugh at but they seem to be winning in Dundalk"

"The SPs are scandalous as are the late shows but the fact is there are less layers in Dundalk than any racetrack in Ireland."

It's safe to presume that the boys on the lash are taking the prices close enough to the off into regular 140% overrounds and you maintain they're making it pay at Dundalk over a decent sample size

The naivety of those comments lets you down Wildman, absolute codswallop however you try to spin that tripe.
Report dj876 December 8, 2016 8:15 PM GMT
naivety even
Report wildmanfromborneo December 8, 2016 8:50 PM GMT
My observations aren't scientific.
I did say " seem to be winning "
One thing I'm certain of is they are backing winners although I accept they will find a way to lose their dough anyway

Statistics are for others( not my forte ) but someone will do the stats on Dundalk,I think ye will be surprised.

I did read stats from Newcastles all weather racing and they were stunning.
A blanket backing of favourites yielded a decent profit,a blanket betting of favourites on the straight course yielded an even better profit.

I hate that type of betting.
My idea of betting is the pleasure of spotting something or the joy in picking a winner yourself.
Report dj876 December 8, 2016 9:06 PM GMT
You can't just come out and say,

I was talking through my hat when referring to pub punters backing at the off into 140% books and making a long term profit at Dundalk.

No one is advocating systematic blind betting, maths may not be your forte but you still understand that betting into mature 140% books is suicidal over any decent time period. Newcastle has a tiny sample size, the level of corruption in UK AW racing makes it for insiders (and desperadoes) only regardless of what mouths on here will proclaim. You only need to take a cursory glance at the main "characters" involved.

From a non - monetary perspective, I don't know how you can derive any comparative  pleasure from punting at that dreary kip relative to top class national hunt racing (standard is abysmal so far this year though). Each to their own I suppose.
Report wildmanfromborneo December 8, 2016 9:26 PM GMT
You are entitled to your opinion.
Equally you are entitled to criticise anything I write but here you are just twisting things.

You are spancilled by percentages but to bolster your case you use the figure 140% knowing it to be untrue.
To me these are notional figures anyway but the figures for last night were in the mid to late 120s which seems the norm.

No matter what way you look at it they theoretically bet to 128% in the first race but as more than half that field had no chance that figure is reduced significantly.
Another factor you don't take into consideration are the concessions for small bettors,all on double result all on BOG.
Although I think this will change.
Report GEORGE.B December 8, 2016 11:35 PM GMT
Heavy Weight's race was unbelievable, it looked a case of who was in front when the music stopped!

A feature of Wednesday's racing was that it looked advantageous to be near or on the pace, so with that in mind, Friday's fancy which goes in the (un)lucky last could find how the track seems to be riding against him, but at 10-1, I'm going to speculate a couple of shekels!

Power Grid, 9.05

Didn't get much luck in the run last time having been dropped in from a wide draw but showed enough to suggest he could be worth another chance, having posted two solid efforts on his two previous starts over C/D; he has a potentially better draw (1) to work from on Friday, Kevin Manning takes over in the saddle (though not sure the loss of Halpin's claim is an advantage), and the cheekpieces are given another go.

Good luck with your picks.
Report neill d December 9, 2016 1:14 AM GMT
Not a big enough sample size obviously but the straight course at Newcastle looks stiff as hell. I don't follow it closely but from what I see you'd notice a lot of horses tying up close home. The good thing is I suppose it gives the poorer jockeys more time to get themselves sorted than say somewhere like Lingfield; probably a good thing for favourite backers, a stiff straight mile and a consistent surface.
Report by purpose December 9, 2016 5:42 PM GMT
Another fav,,,,Well joint but what was 2nd.
Report CALLING CARD December 9, 2016 5:51 PM GMT
i will tak eon FEANES short one later , too many placing for my liking
nursery looks a match between leahy and murphy
walkabout looks hurled in but i wont play at 5/2 draw the mitigating factor
midsomer should collect in the next
oh btw at Clonmel yesterday in the absense of Dara Fitz . Mulvaney was betting on he UK racing he was a least a half point under the show on every runner , a lousy act in my humble opinion
and we had to listen to the lovechild scream and roar BETTING AT GOSFORTH PARK as if he was the only one in attendance that knew it was Newcastle ffs , a langer of the highest order
happy punting
Report wildmanfromborneo December 9, 2016 6:19 PM GMT
I think there will be one plunge horse tonight,Chestnut Fire.

Don't let his price put you off as a fair equation for me is the shorter the price the bigger his chance of winning.
Report CALLING CARD December 9, 2016 6:22 PM GMT
wild its very true at that venue in handcaps... heavy weight a prime example
Report winsamsoon December 9, 2016 6:35 PM GMT
Chestnut Fire is a place lay for me, he's got a big hike already and if he wins this he's rated over 100 and there's no more races for him. Red avenger for me,  with Reckless KAD And He's our Music the dangers
Report Eddie Batt December 9, 2016 6:37 PM GMT
Train Time in the 835 -last time he ran here he misbehaved at the start in a big way,pulled like a bustard early on and still held on for second place -helped by the joint fav being pulled up.In my experience when a horse starts to show bad habits they only get worse.At anything less than evens I make him a max place lay but I think I can find better propositions for my punting euros over the weekend.
Report wildmanfromborneo December 9, 2016 6:47 PM GMT
Not impressed by Foley there had Chestnut Fire all over the place and beaten a nose although that could be just pocket talk.

Disagree with CALLING CARD over Secret Existence,not one to lay one to back for me.
Report mincer11 December 9, 2016 7:48 PM GMT
Not pocket talk Dan, he threw away the race, plain and simple. Foley is just one of a band of frustrating flat jockeys who don't keep it simple as often as they should. Would Pat Smullen have it as far back as Foley did?, not an earthly.
Foley Lee Lordan are just 3 of the jockeys who think getting one up in the shadows of the post is so much better than winning by being in pole position from early in a race.
Report GEORGE.B December 9, 2016 9:27 PM GMT
The 10-1 is a distant memory but it was deffo still there in a couple of places this morning when I got up and plenty of 8s was available throughout the morning, so apologies to anyone who had to settle for the miserly SP!

Whatever, hope Power Grid lit up your evening!
Report workrider December 9, 2016 10:17 PM GMT
Calling was that Ray or the Da you were talking about.
Report CALLING CARD December 9, 2016 11:37 PM GMT
Patrick was working, neither SHAPES or the TRAIN warrior were there
Report pa lapsy December 10, 2016 9:02 PM GMT
Funny results in Navan today and find it with the better class Sunday racing also,maybe that in part WPM has lost his seemingly invincible mantle, rotten hard card at Cheltenham as well. At the moment the Clonmels and Thurles are to me holding up punting wise.
Early enough in Dundalks AW season,my view is in Jan and Feb it will be a more solid "form" gaff.
Can only add to the poor ride Chesnut Fire got last night,should have won comfortably,off to Dubai now but doubt he is up to that.
Very nice winner George B,i wonder does the "B" stand for "Boole", i only know this because he lived not a 100 yards from where i grew up but in mid 1800 he penned the "Laws of Thought" and responsible for major mathemathical algorithms, he got pneumonia walking through Cork and his equally learned wife decided the best treatment was to immerse him in water but that didn't work and he met his maker. Well done.
Report Rocketfingers December 11, 2016 9:24 PM GMT
I would have thought for anyone able to rate horses correctly Dundalk would be an absolute gold mine and surely easier to do them at these AW tracks than ground varying tacks. The smart lads among horse racing gamblers probably made some serious wedge in the early days of this track opening, i remember Ozy having it right off.
Report wildmanfromborneo December 11, 2016 10:36 PM GMT
Great post by George B with a 10/1 winner.

Looked good for punters again on Friday.
The last two favs going in is always good for the less discerning punters.

The downside was the robbery perpetrated on punters in those last two races
Secret Existence was a serious drifter on here from 2.7 out to 4.1
However on course Secret Existence shortened from 7/4 to 13/8.
Tetraites shortened from 13/2to 4/1
Train Time shortened from 11/2 to 4/1

In the last race Surprisingly was a major drifter from 4.1 to around 7
Power Grid was strong from about 5.2 to about 4.7 yet incredibly they returned them 4/1 joint.
Report GEORGE.B December 15, 2016 8:42 PM GMT
Cheers pa lapsy & Wildman

I did have a selection for tomorrow's meeting but at the price (generally a 3-1 shot), I've decided to pass.

The horse in question is Captain K (7.00), who caught the eye at Wolverhampton two starts back when being stopped in his run from over 1f out before finishing off nicely for 3rd; that was just his second start for Gordon Elliott,  and this horse has a bit about him physically to suggest if kept sound he can win races.

The negatives are: there presumably have been issues given he'd been off for 18 months prior to his first start for Elliott, and his latest run back at Wolver was disappointing (even allowing for the drop back to 7f perhaps not being ideal); he has also pulled hard in both his starts back, so could do with settling better.

The booking of Declan McDonogh would seem a positive but he has a poor record for the stable (just 2 from 30 last 5 seasons, -19).

He hasn't a decent draw to work from, but this was one to help with the Xmas exes, they're gonna be disappointed with the price!
Report GEORGE.B December 15, 2016 8:43 PM GMT
*but if this...
Report GEORGE.B December 15, 2016 8:47 PM GMT
*he has a decent draw to work from...

hang on, I'm just off to sack the sub-editor Crazy
Report GEORGE.B December 15, 2016 10:04 PM GMT
You know, I'm going to have to thoroughly check these posts before posting Crazy cuz I've just realised that I've used rather an unfortunate word - "stopped" - but I meant it as in momentum-stopping due to a horse getting in its way, just to clarify!
Report wildmanfromborneo December 16, 2016 7:15 PM GMT
It seems normal service has been resumed tonight.

The money horse won the first,I think I saw Alfredo Arcano as big as 5.4 about ten minutes before the off,backed into favouritism.

Second race they got an outsider that won well.

Back into handicaps and the favourite Crescendo wins at what looked a short 5/2.

Another handicap and the three dominating the market fight out the finish.

For the rest of the night I fancy

Settle For Red in the 7.30
Russian Soul in the 8.30
New Direction in the 9.00,
Report GEORGE.B December 16, 2016 7:27 PM GMT
Good luck, wildman

The market certainly told a tale with Captain K, out to 20s I think on here and ran accordingly, it could be spotted out the back of the telly with its tongue lolling out. Not a pretty sight!

Maybe it's just useless, but there certainly looked to something to work on at Wolver, we'll see...
Report GEORGE.B December 16, 2016 7:36 PM GMT
Apologies, I was looking at the wrong horse there, Three Majors was the one with its tongue lolling out, whatever, disappointing and the jury's out!
Report wildmanfromborneo December 16, 2016 7:45 PM GMT
Believe your own eyes George B they seem to be working well.

The market told you all ye need to know about Captain K,I wouldn't write him off.

Twistandturns form has been franked by Crescendos victory earlier.
Report GEORGE.B December 16, 2016 8:17 PM GMT
Just had a good look back at it, hard to draw any positives from that particular run, though he travelled fine up to a point. Interestingly, he's by a sprinter and he's a half-brother to Absa Lutte, who was definitely a sprinter and won her fair share at 5/6 f, despite not always looking the easiest. She too looked a big boat of a thing, and just wonder if CK would be worth a try back sprinting (seemed to show a bit of pace on his first start for GE).

Whatever, not one I'm going overboard at the moment, but will keep an eye on him.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan December 8, 2017 1:48 PM GMT
A few NEW €25,000 RACES tonight on the DUNDALK CARD.....even Lord Byron and Sanus Per Aquam makes an appearance.....Hoping for clear skies and a snow patch here or there.

IF YOUR NOT INTERESTED IN THIS THREAD...please keep your fingers up your nose tyia.
btw 'NAM' trained by Thomas Mullins in the 6.30 has no chance

...cue GEORGE.B with a few winners Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan December 8, 2017 1:50 PM GMT
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