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workrider
14 Mar 16 19:00
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Date Joined: 29 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 31,736 | Blogger: workrider's blog
I was wondering if anyone was thinking of laying the favs tomorrow , I'm thinking strongly of laying Min , looked really impressive in the flesh when I saw him at Punchestown .Pulled like a train and beat a couple of horses that upheld the form next time out , thats the positive side + Willie been the trainer and his record is unparalled in this race . The negitives are hard to find ,change in going , bigger field , stronger pace and a much better opposition . Anyone else thinking of laying this fellow @ around 2/1 . Can the idiots please refrain from replying , you know to whom I'm referring..

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Replies: 85
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 14 Mar 16 19:08
The positives are hard to find but your thinking of laying it, makes sense.
By:
Bigwillystyle
When: 14 Mar 16 19:09
Have layed him to lose plenty but that was when I thiught Yorkhill was in!! Hopefully something acts as a spoiler and takes him on early!
By:
frank60
When: 14 Mar 16 19:16
I laid Vroum Vroum Mag at 2.02 in the mares race W/R, She could well hose in but theres some good horses in the race [20 run]  Vroum Vroum Mag has pick up some handy races on the way and she has never run in a race as hot as this, evens the rest of the field seems a good value bet to me. MIN could go of at 5/2 it looks like a hot race, you could be right
By:
Racingqueen
When: 14 Mar 16 19:24
Maybe I'm wrong but I think this is a weakish race. Laying at 3.5 on here is a bad bet imho
By:
frank60
When: 14 Mar 16 19:36
weakish race R,Q,Confused
By:
workrider
When: 14 Mar 16 19:38
I won't lay it @ 3.5 Racingqueen , but would be a layer around 2/1.Frank VVM is the new Annie imo and she looks a banker to me ,BWS agree about him not having his own way otherwise we're in trouble , I'd say someone will take him on and he just could get too buzzy .
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 14 Mar 16 19:58
I'm leaning towards tombstone, more to come from this fella on decent ground
By:
Swardean
When: 14 Mar 16 20:42
I am with Frank.  I am balls deep in lay bets on Vrrom Vrrom Mag.   I have 5 or 6 horses that could easily win.
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 14 Mar 16 20:47
I very much doubt they'd be running Annie power in the champion if they didn't think VVM couldn't p!ss up in the mares
By:
Dan Chipowski
When: 14 Mar 16 20:57
1.30 - Can't see anything aside from the front two in the betting winning. Preference for Min as around 9/4 is fair.
2.10 - Hopefully Douvan puts on a show. Sizing John w/o and for the forecast.
2.50 - Doing Fine - Has had a nice break, yard is in better form and David Mullins in the plate. Enough positives for a 28/1 shot.
3.30 - Annie Power - Primarily because the opposition are so weak.
4.10 - Stephanie Frances (20/1 & 16/1 e/w, w/o Vroom Vroom Mag) - Course winner and back over hurdles.
4.50 - Minella Rocco - Entire season seems to have been geared for this one race. Will need to find some fluency early on.
5.30 - Aloomomo - Loads of chasing experience between France & the UK, jumps like a stag. Hugely encouraging run over hurdles the other day.

Good luck all.
By:
workrider
When: 14 Mar 16 20:58
I find myself Agreeing with Chelt on this .
By:
norn iron
When: 14 Mar 16 21:00
LAY MIN
LAY  ANNIE  POWER   
LAY   VROOM VROOM

ALWAYS LIKE BACKING TWO IN MOST REACES

SILVER CONCORDE EW NAP     EW MISTER MIYAGI

HOLYWELL  / MORNING ASSEMBLY

THE NEW ONE  / MY TENT OR YOURS

POLLY PEACHEM /AURORA DESTRUVAL

MINELLE ROCCO  / NATIVE RIVER

BALLYALTON  EW NB   / AMORE ALATO 

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS
By:
Swardean
When: 14 Mar 16 21:06
Do we think the Jonjo stable form will come good?  Awful for past few months even by his standards.   Also a big question mark Minello will stay on breeding
By:
newapproach
When: 14 Mar 16 21:36
You're a brave man norn, I think it could be a bloodbath for you. I've backed the 4 mullins hotpots to win. Douvan and VVM look bankers and on balance, I think the other 2 will probably win. Mullins and Ruby see to be going off min a bit but hopefully they are just trying to take the pressure off him.

Holywell looks a good bet in the 3 mile handicap chase. Won this race 2 years ago and was 4th in the Gold Cup last year on ground that wouldn't suit him. He'll love the ground tomorrow and a mark of 153 looks very exploitable. The favourite is very inexperienced over fences having only won 2 3 runner races. Tomorrow's race could be a culture shock for him.

Southfield Royale looks a good bet in the 4 miler also. Ran a cracker in the Feltham and looks very likely to stay the trip. Nina was booked very early for the ride on this horse so presumably the stable have fair confidence in the horse's chances. Minella Rocco has ran some terrible races over fences and Noble Endevour looks a doubtful stayer.
By:
kavvie
When: 14 Mar 16 21:39
i know a bit about minella rocco as i lost a few quid on it early season sadly.it was originally an rsa horse..then it bombed a few times  handicaps were the preferred  route.then it ran ok in reynoldstown and  in my opinion the 4 miler is an after thought.so this was not the aim all season.it cost over  1/4 of a mil so id imagine 4 milers wernt the original aim?!?!?
By:
Bigwillystyle
When: 14 Mar 16 21:53
I'd say they thought they were going to get a nicer Mark than they did. He probably wasn't good enough for Rsa and they have More of that for it and no other race for him.
I think Pont Allexandre is a huge price. Would have gone close last time only for nearly coming down at the last. I think he will run a huge race tomorrow and
By:
pa lapsy
When: 14 Mar 16 21:57
With the ease in Min and Annie the Quad is very near 30/1,i,m stunned with Mins price,i thought it would be odds on after its last win for this. The taking on and boiling over are fair points but equally there is also a chance he will settle a bit better. Thought he was in trouble last time but the way he quickened up was exceptional. May be argued that Attribution let the form down but Ball D'arc hasn't.
I'm with Racingqueen in that i think the opposition aren't anything special on what they have shown so far.
Couldn't lay Annie Power either,getting mares allowance,stays further and a poor field gives her a fair chance,agree with the good point that they(Mullins crew) thought hard with the two mares targets and must have some confidence in that.
By:
norn iron
When: 14 Mar 16 22:13
NEW APP JUST THINK MIN IS SILLY PRICE BECAUSE OF CONNCTIONS  ATTRIBUTION OT GURTEEN  HAVENT REALLY FRANKED FORM LTO AND THINK THE PACE OF THIS HOT RACE WITH LOADS IN WITH BIG CHANCE AS OPPOSED TO THE RACES MIN WON WERE 90% WERNT EVEN TRYING  PS IL LAYING MIN WIN / PLACECrazy

ANNIE POWER IS SUPER MARE BUT THIS IS AFTER THOUGHT WITH FAUGHEEN OUT AND THINK RUBY MIGHT REGRET NOT RIDING NIC CANYON  BUT CAN SEE THE NEW ONE WINNING AS STABLE AN JOCKEY VERY BULLISH 

JUST CANT    SEE  ANNIE   PLACED EVEN WITH WEIGHT ALLOWANCES

VROOM V MAG  IS IN VERY HOT RACE AND DEF THINK SHE WORTH LAYING EVEN IF ONLY FOR SCORE

ALL ABOUT OPINIONS AND BE FIRST TO SAY I fecked UP AFTER



WOULD YOU AGREE IF ANY ONE OTHER THAT MULLINS WALSH  ALL THREE BE AT LEAST 2 OR 3 TIMES THE PRICE AS THE BOOKIES CAN GET AWAY WITH OFFERING FAR SHORTER THAT THEY SHOULD ?
By:
kavvie
When: 14 Mar 16 22:14
maybe tombstone will improve a good deal for the better surface?seemed to me that he was hating the ground on his last 2 runs? the word from nh is theres nothing between the two of theirs so maybe neither are exceptional..tombstone ew at 16s is a tempter
By:
callitasucit
When: 14 Mar 16 22:30
BV went 11-4 on Sizing John earlier in the without market.

I say that odds compiler has penned his last price!!
By:
newapproach
When: 14 Mar 16 22:37
I think Douvan and Vroum Vroum Mag are certainties. Vroum Vroum Mag is running against the same mares by and large  that couldn't beat Glen's Melody last year. I'd say connections believe VVM is a fair bit better than Glen's Melody. She beat a lot of those mares @ Ascot last time also.

It is a very poor champion hurdle this year. The fact that Annie is being re-located is a slight concern but she is much better than her opponents based on her run in the world hurdle 2 years ago. If connections really thought Nicolas Canyon could beat Annie Power, they would have persuaded ricci to run the mare in a different race. I like Nicolas Canyon but connections always seem to have doubted him.

Connections seem to be downplaying min's chances which is slightly concerning but his only 2 real rivals are the Henderson one's imo. His 2 wins were exceptional and if he runs to that level, he should win. The 7/4 that was on offer was very short but he is drifting to a fair enough price atm.
By:
callitasucit
When: 14 Mar 16 22:43
I wouldn't be a fan of Altior at all really. A couple of obvious exceptions apart, I don't think the English novice hurdle form is worth a carrot. 

Supasundae may be the one to chase Min home.
By:
Deplasterer
When: 14 Mar 16 23:11
Min to get the punters off to a great start tomorrow, hard not be impressed lto, hopefully settles better and has some left for the finish.

Not sure how many mares have ran since flakey dove but not many have won and does seem an afterthought with faugheen injury. Take a chance on Identity Thief with drying ground and a break bound to help reverse with NIC Canyon.

Vroom Vroom Mag looks the part and Greatrex's horse in the last looks to have a great chance.

Best of luck.
By:
TheWasp
When: 14 Mar 16 23:43
Bet of the day Scenic Star 8.10 Wolverhampton @ 5/2
Get all yere chelt losses back on this beast
By:
Tolmi
When: 15 Mar 16 03:43
It's an average first day card with a poor quality Champion in which the likely best horse in the race is running over a shorter trip and livelier ground than normal.I'd would have thought it an event of Leicester winning the Premiership proportions if at the start of the season someone had said that Robert Walford would be training the horse in the Champion Hurdle with the highest official rating!!

For the first Cheltenham in memory it looks like there will be no bet for me on Day 1.

However if I had any advice for punters it would be to shop around very carefully between Bookmaker's and the exchanges for place terms.This is especially true this year with Ireland's leading chain offering very stingy place terms on a few races.
By:
Tolmi
When: 15 Mar 16 03:43
It's an average first day card with a poor quality Champion in which the likely best horse in the race is running over a shorter trip and livelier ground than normal.I'd would have thought it an event of Leicester winning the Premiership proportions if at the start of the season someone had said that Robert Walford would be training the horse in the Champion Hurdle with the highest official rating!!

For the first Cheltenham in memory it looks like there will be no bet for me on Day 1.

However if I had any advice for punters it would be to shop around very carefully between Bookmaker's and the exchanges for place terms.This is especially true this year with Ireland's leading chain offering very stingy place terms on a few races.
By:
huddys
When: 15 Mar 16 09:11
Min is my main bet of the day,also backed Annie Power in the champion hurdle at 5/2,done Douvan and Vrum Vrum Mag in a double,and done the four of them in an Accum,
Backed Sizing John w/o at 2/1,then I've backed Holywell e/w in the 2:50,then in the 4 miler I've backed Southfield Royale,
By:
callitasucit
When: 15 Mar 16 11:03
Agree with Tolmi that it isn't the mouthwatering Tuesday we have come to expect.

Douvan apart, we may not have a really worthy winner of any race.

That said, I am a fan of Min, and expect him to take a below par renewal of the Supreme. I'm not sold on the Altior form at Kempton, he was well off it and looked beaten 3 out. I feel Min will take too much out of him from the run between the second last and the last. The English novices don't look a great bunch in this in particular, and its another Irish horse I feel may fill the forecast spot.

Supasundae has taken time to warm to his hurdling, but coming from these quarters, he was not likely to remain a poor jumper. Silver Concorde would have hated the ground at Leop, but Supasundae will relish the better ground himself. H de B's horses have a tremendous record at the festival, and this lad can perform with aplomb.

Tombstone looks one for the future, but may still be a bit babyish for today.

Douvan is an absolute monster. Its a shame he cant win this, then win the CH an hour and a a half later. Absolutely different gravy, barring accidents he hoses up.

I am very sweet on Sizing John without and am on at various prices. He will love the ground, will be staying on better than any of the ones in behind, and crucially they know Douvan has their measure and may not get involved with him. I could see Douvan putting Vaniteux on the floor, if they take him on early.

Have backed Out Sam and Un Temps Pour Atout e.w with 5 places in the 3rd. May add Holywell.

By the process of elimination(literally), Annie Power looks the only horse currently of the class worthy of a CH winner. I say currently, because if the have My Tent or Yours back and he settles, he too would be a worth winner.

I have him backed e.w at 25s though, so am happy to go with the mare today.

Nichols Canyon got hugely over rated for less than a two length beating of Wicklow Brave(using Faugheen as the yardstick there was plain idiocy). He isn't good enough to win a CH, and if he does its one rubbish race. Identity Thief is improving, but falls in with NC. I think TNO has gone at the game, and even if involved in the finish, I would expect him to put it all in.

Vroum Vroum Mag should win, and win easy. 11-10 is good enough for me. Slight worr being that all her 8 runs and wins, have been right handed in small fields on predominately soft ground. I think she is a class act though, and that this is her ideal trip.

The trip might be a slight doubt for Pont Alexandre, but IMO he holds a big class edge here and have punted him and Southfield Royale.

Dec is very sweet on Aloomomo, and apparently connections are too. I went with him in the last. On Tour may defy big odds, and is worth an e.w play.

For those that bet on Chelt, and don't want to study themselves, they will do better than cheltenhamtips.ie for the week.
By:
callitasucit
When: 15 Mar 16 11:10
For those that bet on Chelt, and don't want to study themselves, they will do no better than cheltenhamtips.ie for the week.
By:
callitasucit
When: 15 Mar 16 11:15
Though I am already on Elliot in the without WPM market, I feel just as good a bet is Warren Greatrix at 40-1.

His bullets will be bigger prices, but I can see him bagging a couple at least (hopefully today!), and though in hindsight it may turn out better just to back them in singles, I'm having this as a cover shot for when I back the wrong ones!!
By:
frank60
When: 15 Mar 16 11:16
Nice write up as ever Callit, i had to laugh at Ted Walsh on the morning line; when asked if My Tent or Yours could win the Champion Hurdle after such a long lay off;he Replied this is Cheltenham not Lourdes Grin,    A.P  Naped  Aloomomo in the last, goodluck with your tips.
By:
Deplasterer
When: 15 Mar 16 11:51
Mc cleans offering 35/1 the four Mullins favs. Don't fancy Annie so took the 10/1 guaranteed the other 3 by the same firm, don't see any current offers better ATM, but I may be wrong. The more I look at Altiors last run, he does look a massive danger to Min.
By:
world wide web
When: 15 Mar 16 12:49
Morning all - I had a look through the card last night and enjoy using a mis-mash of the gaultstats and the form. My thoughts are as follows:

1.30 A race to watch and enjoy for me. The layers are hoping Min will be be beat. Altior 4/1 would be my pick if forced to bet.
2.10 No bet. Douvan should win easy. A race to watch and enjoy.
2.50 First of the tricky handicaps. I like Beg To Differ 12/1 who while only 6 ticks aload of boxes & Morning Assembly 14/1 who looks graded class in a handicap. I'll back both for interest
3.30 Champion Hurdle - Have looked at them all I really like the chances of The New One @ 6/1. I'll back him e/w
4.10 - Mares race - no bet
4.50 - Tricky novices chase & after looking at them all I landed on the mare Ballycorus @ 12/1. Small e/w
5.10 - tricky novices handicap chase but I narrowed it down to Aloomomo who ticked most stats and I see he turns out to be the fav at 11/2 - will prob back him depending on how bad the earlier races go!!"!


Good luck punting and enjoy.
By:
workrider
When: 15 Mar 16 12:52
Decided overnight to be a better rather than a layer ,as has already been said not a vintage Tues by any means , so lots of e/ws for me today ,just to open the pipesshall we say...
1.30.Bellshill e/w .
 
2 10 The Game Changer e/w
2.50 Band of Blood e/w
3.30 Sempre Medici e/w
4.10 Mag .
4.50 Meausureofmydreams e/w ..
By:
applehunter
When: 15 Mar 16 13:29
Looks a tough card.

1.30 Supasundae EW w/out Min
2.05 Sizing John w/out Douban
2.50 Fox Appeal EW
3.30 Identity Thief EW
4.10 The Govaness EW
4.50 Ballychorus/Pont Alexander
5.30 Amore Alato EW
By:
tony57
When: 15 Mar 16 13:58
Altoir
By:
punchestown
When: 15 Mar 16 14:03
Think Ruby will do a "Douvan" in the opener and try settle Min in front,has bags of class and is my nap.

The Game Changer without in the Arkle.

Think Annie Power is very vulnerable in the big one and while I hope and pray she doesn't fall again I think her jumping won't stand up here over the 2 miles because of the likely pace as she can be very sloppy at times.Have dutched The New One and Identity Thief.

GL to all.
By:
gemini01
When: 15 Mar 16 14:08
Min a an ew lay in the first for me..
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 15 Mar 16 14:25
Don't think Pont Alex has any chance of staying 4 miles
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