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pa lapsy
17 Nov 15 12:08
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Lady riders chase is probably not a right race to be looking at,maybe more so when what looks could well be the main two protagonists havn't got a rider declared, still we will try and make an opinion on it.
Obvious starting point is the 7th of Nov race where On the Shannon stayed on well to win and Rightville Boy weakened into 4th after being with the winner up the straight,big turnaround in weight of 12lb (inc claim). I think it will be confirmed as over 2m5f On the Shannon seems more of a stayer, his form last 2 years was mainly consistent and his run against better rated horses at Punchestown (messy race tbf) stands out,could Katie Walsh be on tomorrow?  Oliver Kiernans quote of him hoping he can get into big race handicaps is telling and off 109 would want to be moving up if that is to come to fruition.
Finea is interesting,way too highly tried last twice, his runs have mainly been on better ground though in the process of being involved when soft at Tipp til a bit of an unlucky fall 2 out,very slow to discount.
I'm not gone on the rest, Better B Quick(Moonclone Lane behind last time),Tomdeely,Coolnamoora Giggs have bits of form to say they could run well,still think that is a fair bit behind the top weighted two.
My tissue would be,

On the Shannon 10/3, Rightville Boy 4/1, Finea 5/1 8/1 bar,  The jocks could well affect that if a name gets on either of the top 2.

Elsewhere on the card interesting runners with the well touted Open Eagle in the opener and the Florida Pearl colours in the last.

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By:
Bigwillystyle
When: 17 Nov 15 15:12
Backed On The Shannon in Naas at 14's.  I had followed him over a cliff last season.

He is 17 pounds worse off with Rightville boy if you take claims into account.

I think he is still well ahead of the handicapper.  He is a fine big horse and only growing into himself now, but will not back him tomorrow for the simple reason that he had a hard race in Naas and dont like him coming back so quickly.  I hope he finishes 4th or 5th and he will win in Leopardstown at Christmas.
By:
TellTheKing
When: 17 Nov 15 15:24
BWS I think you'll find the winner of that Leopardstown race runs in Gowran on Saturday
By:
Bigwillystyle
When: 17 Nov 15 17:12
TellTheKing i take it your talking about Wrong Turn.  Will he get into it?

Caught the eye a number of times last year, especially in Down Royal.  I agree he will win if he runs in it at Christmas.
By:
Bigwillystyle
When: 17 Nov 15 17:13
White Arm i mean
By:
Bigwillystyle
When: 17 Nov 15 17:15
Looking at the race he should get in off his current mark so will they be going for a trot around on Sat?
By:
TellTheKing
When: 17 Nov 15 17:23
The very horse BWS. He has bags in hand off 98. It's a pity they switched it from a 0-116 to 0-123 in recent times as that would suit better in terms of getting in. I wouldn't expect the race to fill though so he would get in alright. Donagh Meyler or Shane Shortall are able to claim off bottom weight.

I had one of my first monkey bets on Saddlers Storm in that race a few years ago only for Philip Enright to make a balls of it. Ever since then I've been waiting on Harvey to tee a similar type up. Think this is the year.

I don't expect him to figure on Saturday. No real need for it.
By:
Bigwillystyle
When: 17 Nov 15 17:30
Remember backing Nuatical Storm of Francis Floods to win that race must be 10 years ago now.

Thrown in is right!  All you had to do is watch his run behind On The Fringe in Killarney in May last year.  20 wide all the way.

Had Five O'Clock tea backed in north the day there was a false gamble on this fella.

I see he is also entered in maiden hurdle so they may go that route and avoid getting into trouble.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 17 Nov 15 17:50
Ye are miles ahead of me and on to Saturday already,the 2.45 there has some nice entries.
Thanks for the comments BWS, did like the way On the Shannon pricked its ears after the line last time,got a fair few flakes but lazy rather than a hard race was my opinion.
No fat on the bones with his price on the earlies at 3/1-10/3, a nr would leave it at a 1/5 of the odds, Rightville Boys price at 7/1 looks big and more so since Lizzie Kelly is coming over for him, i still had doubts even with so much weight turnaround that the places could be reversed though common sense says it should. You are right though it is a fair ask. Enthusiasm has waned a bit as was expecting a slightly bigger price.
By:
TellTheKing
When: 17 Nov 15 17:51
Yeah the Killarney run was shocking, was there that day. Jockey never rode for him after either.

Remember the false gamble alright. A Turgeon 3 mile chaser jumper out the back over two miles! Not sure whether he got a knock or they just left him off for grass. Patience is a virtue that crowd have in spades.

Just noticed the hurdle entry now. Makes sense - could run him over fences in Thurles or somewhere in a few weeks too.
By:
TheWasp
When: 17 Nov 15 18:04
Any opininons on tudor city in first at hexham tomorrow?
By:
TellTheKing
When: 17 Nov 15 18:14
A lady riders handicap chase wouldn't hold much interest for me Pa. Bad sign for any race when Lizzie Kelly is getting flown in for a ride.

Finea has a relatively positive profile. Lots of jumping experience and a somewhat competent rider. Will be well tuned up after running twice at the Down Royal meeting!

He'll win if they want Wasp. That's my opinion but I wouldn't be confident to call their intentions with this horse. The positives are 1) Ran well under tender ride in Limerick the last day 2) O' Regan got a feel for him previously in Gowran 3) The tongue tie is back on after being left off in Limerick which suggests they may go for it. The potential negative is obvious. With the winds tonight there's a fair chance he won't be able to travel so it could all be academic (think the meeting must also pass an inspection).
By:
TheWasp
When: 17 Nov 15 18:20
Thanks was thinking along the same lines
By:
pa lapsy
When: 17 Nov 15 18:39
TTK summed it up very well, you would know just watching its hurdles runs it he has a fair bit more to offer. If going for it(and arrives as said) it is up against poor ones with more or less the same flat rating( Cosmic Stateman rated mid 60's alright), interesting horse and race.
By:
TheWasp
When: 17 Nov 15 18:55
Ya agree think its worth a bet at around 5/2 in the morning as looks a typical dire northern maiden
By:
pa lapsy
When: 17 Nov 15 19:04
PP,s betting on that 3.15 is against the grain,Rightville Boy 7/2 opp gen av 6/1 and standout 10/1 on Finea, i,ll shut up about it now Blush.
You will probably get some vibe tomorrow one way or another alright, if it goes ahead they could be walking up that hill.
By:
tony57
When: 17 Nov 15 19:50
1.00 UP FOR REVIEW @2/1
this trip will suit the trainer has won the race 3 times ran well enough @punchestown but should be up to winning this on debut..
By:
snap crackle and pop
When: 17 Nov 15 20:03
Couldn't have that at 2/1 at all tony
By:
Bigwillystyle
When: 17 Nov 15 20:12
Would rather back Tudor City at evens than at 2/1 if you know what I mean. If off would hose up tomorrow!
By:
dj876
When: 17 Nov 15 20:19
I think Space Cadet is the best bet on the card for Davy Russell on his only returning ride.

"Available" at 11/4 and 3/1 I'd expect them to flip flop and can see Sea Cadet going off 6/4.

Hurdle experience is vital (third run) and this son of Flemensfirth ran a fine race on seasonal debut over an inadequate 2 miles against a decent type of Meade/JPs pulling 14 lengths clear of the third.

2 and a half miles will really suit SC tomorrow and Up for review will have to be very fit to beat him on hurdles debut.

Some of Willies have badly needed their seasonal debut and it would be a brave to take overnight prices in this scenario on seasonal debut after 6 months off.

Hurricane Darwin is an interesting hurdling debutante for the in form Alan Fleming stable,purchased from Niall Flynn after debut. The Barry Connell /Alan Fleming have made a decent start this year,all be it in non-graded racing so far.
By:
TheWasp
When: 17 Nov 15 20:20
ya agree BWS not an outfit you would want to second guess too often but it looks such a dire race will chance
By:
Bigwillystyle
When: 17 Nov 15 20:24
Wouldn't touch Space Cadet tomorrow at the price. Mall Dini is an interesting horse and run well tomorrow he will surely win a maiden at Christmas in Limerick.
By:
dj876
When: 17 Nov 15 20:32

Nov 17, 2015 -- 2:24PM, Bigwillystyle wrote:


Wouldn't touch Space Cadet tomorrow at the price. Mall Dini is an interesting horse and run well tomorrow he will surely win a maiden at Christmas in Limerick.


What price do you think he should be and why are you most definitely against him?

I think it will be a serious test of stamina with the rain that has fallen and he will stay all day and sets a decent standard.

I saw Mall Dini win his ladies rider bumper at Mallow, a literal reading of his run just behind jetsream jack on hurdles debut at Galway would give him an ew chance at the price but not too familiar with the trainer .

By:
Bigwillystyle
When: 17 Nov 15 21:06
Have stated many times that I wouldn't support a horse that reappears so quick after his first run of the season. Have a look at Tycoon prince as an example!
By:
mincer11
When: 17 Nov 15 21:09
Space Cadet will be around 6/4 tomorrow, I would say that's very likely.
By:
The Gotchee
When: 17 Nov 15 21:18
You were badly caught ot on this thread mincer.ExcitedLaughLaughLaughExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh



mincer11
mincer11 03 Nov 15 14:05 Joined: 22 Feb 06 | Topic/replies: 1,399 | Blogger: mincer11's blog
Please name the last horse to make the pace and  win the Melbourne Cup.


dave1357 03 Nov 15 16:20 Joined: 05 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 3,817 | Blogger: dave1357's blog
he's a tw4t ^^^^^^



ivynook 03 Nov 15 17:32 Joined: 23 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 5 | Blogger: ivynook's blog
If you don't know the answer, don't pose the question. By the way, the race is a handicap; this year's race had (only) a 16lb spread so take that into account also, notwithstanding going to the other side of the world and hoping for the best with quarantine, health, injury-free etc.  I backed Big Orange also. Delighted with 80/1 e/way and did his very best, horse and jockey. They could not have gone slower in front and he had to lead from gate 23.
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mincer11 03 Nov 15 20:04 Joined: 22 Feb 06 | Topic/replies: 1,399 | Blogger: mincer11's blog
I do know the answer you clown, its never ever been done and it never will be either. Maybe someone should have told Jamie Spencer that.
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mincer11
mincer11 03 Nov 15 20:05 Joined: 22 Feb 06 | Topic/replies: 1,399 | Blogger: mincer11's blog
I do know the answer you clown, its never ever been done and it never will be either. Maybe someone should have told Jamie Spencer that.
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TiptheOdds
TiptheOdds 03 Nov 15 20:58 Joined: 07 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 7,092 | Blogger: TiptheOdds's blog
mincer11

I do know the answer you clown, its never ever been done and it never will be either. Maybe someone should have told Jamie Spencer that.


1997 Might and Power makes all to win Melbourne Cup

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVMO2RSdn-Q





By:
dj876
When: 17 Nov 15 21:27
Pa,Have a word with your Ape will yeah? Is there any thread free of his idiocy?

3 EW Selections at Chelters (all beaten out of sight) and a lay of sprinters sacre at the weekend but no one even bothers commenting as it his standard form.
By:
TheWasp
When: 17 Nov 15 21:28
another good thread unfortunately interrupted with the gobshees usual garbage
By:
The Gotchee
When: 17 Nov 15 21:29
When you going to put up the true results of your Donny thread?
By:
The Gotchee
When: 17 Nov 15 21:29
When you going to put up the true results of your Donny thread?
By:
TellTheKing
When: 17 Nov 15 21:33
Gotchee you must live a nice simple life to have so much time for chasing people round this forum with pictures.

Don’t think the second race is one you could be too dogmatic about until the morning movements:
- Up For Review likely to be the best long term but has to be a doubt about fitness with Willies;
- Space Cadet has good run up the North but don’t know who rides with Davy not cleared;
- Hurricane Darwin has first run over hurdles / first start for Fleming;
- Mall Dini is a bogey as he will go through the muck even if not as classy as others;
- Ice Cold Soul is surely better than his last run.

Looking at Tudor City again I am struggling to see the benefit of not driving on with him. He has three runs over hurdles already here. Possible the Irish handicapper won’t give him a mark as I don’t believe he can run in handicaps until the New Year anyway. A run down the field tomorrow won’t be any help in that department. I am having a smallish bet at 5/2 with the intention of loading up further should the market signs be positive (and he obviously gets to run). It is a truly horrendous race.
By:
dj876
When: 17 Nov 15 21:33
Minus 0.35 points from around 25-30 points staked.

Bad meeting.

True results?

Go on I will entertain you,explain what you think the result was or just bring up the thread?
By:
TheWasp
When: 17 Nov 15 21:37
gobshee put up your results from forum over any period
By:
The Gotchee
When: 17 Nov 15 21:45
True results dj, you are having a laugh.

You don't fool me.
By:
TheWasp
When: 17 Nov 15 21:53
fair play gobshee you are good for a laugh but in future keep it off a good racing thread like this like a good lad
By:
dj876
When: 17 Nov 15 21:58
- Space Cadet has good run up the North but don’t know who rides with Davy not cleared;

TTK- Although it was ruled out earlier today, I believe he will now be on board.

WD TTK on the weekend at Cheltenham,only reading yesterday evening but some nice write ups,the CB/JP one didn't half win.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 17 Nov 15 22:11
I was sorry i butted in earlier between TTK and BWS, sometimes you are better off listening. In fairness a few took the time and trouble to put up their thoughts and it is always good to get a different opinion( pig headed BWS but did take the 7/2 for small with On the Shannon,i couldn't dispute a thing you said)
I did like Space Cadets last run,too many could be anythings in it was my conclusion,Weather Watch could be another to add to above list of dangers.
By:
TellTheKing
When: 17 Nov 15 22:21
That’s good DJ, makes things a bit more clear. Space Cadet has shortened into 9/4 best now, wouldn’t dissuade anyone having a bet at that price with Davy aboard.

This race is an example of where Elliot could struggle with riders this season if Davy is unavailable. I thought Keith O’ Donoghue had the makings of a good rider few seasons ago but he’s a long way off the mark compared to the top riders. The enforced retirement of Davy Condon is a massive blow to both himself and the Elliot yard.

Yeah Leave At Dawn was very good. I said that Scoop The Pot would turn into the best horse that ran in the boys race on Sunday. While he still has a big future as a staying prospect, the winner on stable debut for Harry Fry looking to have a bucketful in hand. Think the plan with him is a race in Newbury next week (carries no penalty and can’t be reassessed before then). Must be one of the best handicapped horses in England at the moment.
By:
snap crackle and pop
When: 17 Nov 15 22:25
It sure is TTK, backed it at 11/2 myself Sunday morning, had been down to run at ffos las the previous weekend but connections pulled it out to keep it for Chelt instead
By:
The Gotchee
When: 17 Nov 15 22:32
Agree pa, the ladies chase will be won by Nina,Katie or Jane, you don't have to look any further but I won't be having a bet in that race.
Space Cadet is a silly price as there are a few hidden dangers at far better prices. Again, it is a dangerous race but Meade's Ice Cold Soul and Mall Dini are serious dangers and Weather Watch, if acting on the ground could be best of all.
Ice Cold Soul is the sensible e/w bet at 7/1.
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