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slickster
10 Jan 15 18:57
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Date Joined: 29 May 02
| Topic/replies: 4,990 | Blogger: slickster's blog
There are 5 races in which the favourites are ludicrously short...
3 on Tuesday and 2 on Friday.

Supreme. Douvan 5-2.
Arkle. Un De Sceaux 9-4
Champion. Faugheen 5-4.
Triumph. Peace And Co 5-2.
Gold Cup. Silviniaco Conti 11-4.

Anyone taking ANY of these prices for these races with over 2 months to go is clueless. The "bookies" are getting worse.

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Replies: 355
By:
tony57
When: 10 Jan 15 18:59
have to agree..although im no anti post punter..i did fall into the trap last year with hendersons morning glory, but never again..i wait till the day..and if they are too short ..let em run..
By:
Temlett
When: 10 Jan 15 19:18
To be fair tony, you did get a price on West Wizard that was not available to any other punter in the land. If you keeping beating the odds like that you will surely profit.
By:
tony57
When: 10 Jan 15 19:24
I know lots who got 20/1 ..it matters not if they don't even run temlett.25/1 is not the big deal is it?
By:
snap crackle and pop
When: 10 Jan 15 19:34
LOL Temlett!
By:
BigRob1
When: 10 Jan 15 19:38
Champagne Fever 8/1 NRNB for the Queen Mother looks a decent E/W  bet
By:
kavvie
When: 10 Jan 15 19:50
big rob i agree totally.if it goes in it it must have a great chance.is the twpo big ones are nrs itl be 5/2 on the day//max
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 10 Jan 15 20:06
Agree with all them particularly Un Des Sceaux and Silviniaco Conti,
UDS has fell once and beat absolutely nothing lto,9/4 is laughable,Hope he wins though as ive always been a fan and was sick Mullins didn't run him in the CH last season all help with the flys legacy,

However i do think peace and co is an absolute freak of a horse and will take some stopping.
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 10 Jan 15 20:08
Champagne Fever imo is a very over rated animal,Western Warhorse chinning him in the Arkle surely proves this.
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 10 Jan 15 20:13
Why on earth would you back a horse at 5/4 ante post? Seems like terrible value at that price, i would even rather bet it at a slightly shorter price closer to the event.
By:
slickster
When: 10 Jan 15 20:20
Of course, by the law of averages, shall we say 2 will win and 3 will lose? If that is the case my 2 to win are Faugheen and Peace And Co.
By:
never give up
When: 10 Jan 15 20:22
snap laid a horse at 1/3 today but the lowest it went was 1.64 ShockedShocked
By:
tony57
When: 10 Jan 15 20:23
you have picked to good ones to be fair slick..i just think theres a while to go yet and any of these markets can change ..a bad run can can turn it all upside down..taking a short price even nrnb, is just not worth your while atm..
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 10 Jan 15 22:29
tony57 10 Jan 15 20:23 Joined: 13 Oct 10 | Topic/replies: 3,917 | Blogger: tony57's blog
you have picked to good ones to be fair slick..i just think theres a while to go yet and any of these markets can change ..a bad run can can turn it all upside down..taking a short price even nrnb, is just not worth your while atm..


Picking good ones = Betting favs, what a mug Laugh
By:
SoYouThink
When: 11 Jan 15 11:20
Will Vautour run in the Arkle or the JLT? It seems blindingly obvious to me that the race for him is the Arkle but there's a strong belief on the Cheltenham Forum that he'll run in the JLT. Does anyone have any opinions on this horse ..... obviously has to put a disappointing run at Christmas before he could figure in either race. He makes more appeal that several of his stablemates on Day 1 of the Festival.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 11 Jan 15 12:40
It just seems as if he has two that are well capable of winning the Arkle, Un de Sceaux is certainly a more natural looking 2m where as Vautour looks to have no trouble with the extra 1/2m. Un de Sceaux would probably get it as well but personally if it was me he would certainly be my Arkle No1. WPM asper usual and rightly i think won't commit til the last minute.
They are very short(list of 5) but looking at it from a books point there are going to be so many DB's,Trebs and upwards on the Mullins horses for this festival they could be facing huge liabilities.
By:
newapproach
When: 11 Jan 15 13:04
It looks like willie wants to split his novices between the 4 races - uds arkle, vautour JLT, Valseur lido rsa, and don poli 4 miler.

I think it would be a disgrace to run the latter two in those races. Valseur lido has far too much speed for a rsa at this stage of his career and don poli is much too good for a 4 miler.

Hopefully the o leary's will [put their feet down and run valseur lido in the jlt and don poli in the rsa, bioth would win imo. Ruby will probably see himself right first and have uds in the arkle and vautour in the jlt. It would be a mouth watering clash to see vautour take on valseur lido in the jlt.
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 11 Jan 15 14:09
pa un de sceaux has won over 2m 3 on heavy ground don't think he'd have a problem getting the JLT trip
By:
pa lapsy
When: 11 Jan 15 14:19
I know he has CR,still for a horse that flakes off out in front and tries to bury his rivals the 2m is obvious, Vautour has a more 2 1/2m profile in that he has won over it and is versatile in his "running style" in that he can be ridden in a few ways(lead/held up)
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 11 Jan 15 14:24
He'll wanna be some horse (UDS) to burn his rivals off in his trademark trail blazing style in any race at the festival and at 9/4 id rather not pay to find out.
By:
neill d
When: 11 Jan 15 17:27
Don Poli is way way too good to be amateur ridden in that 4 mile thing, it would be crazy and will hardly happen.

I wonder is Mullins paying back the Un De Sceaux people by letting them have Ruby on board for the Arkle. Valseur Lido is Gigginstown owned so Ruby wouldn't be on him in the JLT, he could ride Vautour in that who mwould have a massive edge on your typical JLT horse.

Don Poli than duly goes and wins the RSA like a goodun, I'd be very surprised if this isn't the scenario as Mullins has always thought of Vautour as a Gold Cupo horse, his class horse who might get a trip at the top level, and that is the plot he took with his last one of those, Sir Des Champs.

More importantly, this way, Ruby gets to ride both Vautour and Un de Sceaux.
By:
frank60
When: 11 Jan 15 20:19
Good thread hope it stays clean up till March, NEILL after Don poli won the last day Willie said he may well run in the 4 miler as he stays forever,time will tell.
By:
kavvie
When: 11 Jan 15 20:29
if anyone every got a hint that annie power wasnt going for the mares race the pipe yoke at 9/2 would be some cert!!
By:
snap crackle and pop
When: 11 Jan 15 20:31
Unless you are privy to some info not known to the rest of us, think Aurore Destruval is still with John Quinn
By:
snap crackle and pop
When: 11 Jan 15 20:33
And for what its worth would certainly be no cert if Annie didn't show up
By:
kavvie
When: 11 Jan 15 20:38
sorry snap ur right..error on my behalf.well on ratings shes way ahead of everything else?
By:
one last chance
When: 11 Jan 15 21:18
Hope yous ain't forgetting about glens melody for the mares race decent run back at leopardstown over Christmas
By:
kavvie
When: 11 Jan 15 21:26
would she have the class to beat aurore?
By:
neill d
When: 11 Jan 15 21:26
I'll eat my hat if he runs in the 4 miler Frank. He won the Grade 1 at Leopartsdtown over 3miles which to me is the best trial for the race. He also won a competitive handicap over shorter at the festival last season. He is simply too good a horse to run in the 4 miler and is willie's best RSA candidate on the book in any case. Willie has no history of running horses of that class in the 4 miler either. He'd win the 4 miler, but he'd nearly do the same in the RSA hich is way more prestigious and would tell them whether they have the gold Cup horse they think they have.
By:
neill d
When: 11 Jan 15 21:28
Glens Melody would be the better mare I'd say Kav. She'd be the star at Quinn's place.

Anyway, the Irish usually have the better mares, bumper horses and novice hurdlers!
By:
neill d
When: 11 Jan 15 21:29
He could stick that Vroom vroom mag back over flights and take that mares thing with her should Annie not be ready, I could see that happening.
By:
kavvie
When: 11 Jan 15 21:32
fair enough neill.but if you look at aurores form its way superior.btw my biggest bet last yr in chelt was quinns mare to win the mares hurdle ew.unlucky 4th/5th  turned round and won the scottish champion hurdle after..not a great race for me..i laid quevega previous year..
By:
frank60
When: 11 Jan 15 21:34
I backed him [FOR THE 4MILER]straight after Willies remarks , i THINK YOUR NEARER THE MARK NEILL, Imight have done my dough.Confused
By:
neill d
When: 11 Jan 15 21:47
Lads, don't worry, I'm always wrong anyway!! Enjoying this Haughey thing on TV.
By:
callitasucit
When: 11 Jan 15 21:54
I will be very interested in what route they go with Cheltenian. Missed a few fences, on debut on Friday, but can see him appearing in something similar soon. Maybe something a bit easier, nice confidence booster, then off to the Grand Annual off a very workable mark.

He pulled far too hard under a brain dead ride in the County last year, and I get the feeling it will be the handicap route with him again in 2 months time.
By:
neill d
When: 11 Jan 15 22:05
^^^^ very good.

That Josses Hill has some engine if they can get him right. That was a good race on Friday.
By:
workrider
When: 11 Jan 15 22:15
Neill , agree re Don can't for the life of me seeing going down the 4 miler route , he's to classy for that , RSA written all over him ...
By:
BigRob1
When: 11 Jan 15 23:26
Kavvie Annie Power is 5/1 NRNB for the world hurdle.
By:
easygold
When: 12 Jan 15 00:33
Lads if you think 5/2 is short for Un De Sceaux??????? I make him a 6/4 shot a.t.m and when he wins next timeout he will be Evs. A freak if there is ever one.
By:
BigRob1
When: 12 Jan 15 00:37
ignore that kavvie misread your post
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