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callitasucit
21 Dec 14 22:21
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Sep 11
| Topic/replies: 5,332 | Blogger: callitasucit's blog
Still a few days away, but there looks to be some value to be had in playing early.

Silviniaco Conti is probably a deserved favourite. Like many others I feel, I have been guilty of not giving this fine sort due credit. Maybe he has suffered from coming in the immediate aftermath of Kauto Star and Denman. He quite possibly could have won the last two Gold Cups only for falling and bizarrely faltering. But to my eye he is more of a slogger than a true top top class 3m chaser. Unfair maybe, but on ground that looks like being less testing than last year, I think he can be taken on.

Champagne Fever is next in the market, and is the real unknown here. I always viewed him as a stayer, and took the 20-1 on offer for next years GC during the off season. He made a fine seasonal debut, though in reality done no more than was expected in the circumstances. He has yet to prove he will stay 3m, though if a horse is going to get it anywhere its at Kempton on less than bottomless ground.

He hasn't lit up Christmas on his previous festive forays, being beaten in a bumper in his first year, then again burning punters fingers in the St Stephens Day feature again at Leopardstown last year. He made a horrendous error that day, and Ruby seemed to mind him after that. But again, worryingly, he didn't seem too interested once headed. I do believe he has issues, but on his day is a joy to watch. I still cant believe he didn't win the Arkle at Chelt after the exhibition of jumping he put in. He battled well that day, as he did when victorious 12 months previously in the Supreme. Its just when something coasts past, he seems to jack it in. Minsk, Jezki, Balder Success and Defy Logic seem to have broken his heart too easily.

All that said, I think he will take all the beating here. I expect Ruby to let him go the front pretty early, and use his exuberant jumping to try and turn the screw on those in behind. I don't think he is worth backing now, as I feel he will certainly drift, and that 4-1 will be freely available on the day.

Current 3rd choice of the market is Al Ferof, another bold jumping grey. He has had his niggles, and maybe hasn't quite fulfilled expectations over fences. When faced with the elite, he has consistently come up short. True he looked superb at Ascot a month ago, but that was a race he was fully entitled to win. His jumping was also flawless. But in his two forays over 3mile, he hasn't proved his stamina. True the ground was very testing here last year, and maybe something was amiss in Newbury last February. But at 6-1, for a horse yet to beat the best over fences, he seems to require too many excuses to be made on his behalf.

Dynaste came here as joint fav last year, and I had been backing him for months. My interest in the race through him didn't quite last as long. A wind op later, he proved successful in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, but that was against animals at least one rung below what he faces here. He had a similar prep to last year in the Betfair Chase, but whether he is quite good enough to topple the best remains to be seen.

Menorah has found a new lease of life this year. He was a surprise winner of the Charlie Hall, but followed that up with a cracking effort in the Betfair, making Sil Conti pull out all the stops. Has he suddenly improved?? I'm sceptical, and if he hasn't he wont be winning. Philip Hobbs had an unreal run for a couple of months, and maybe his charges were a few weeks ahead of his contemporaries.

Wishful Thinking has never promised to beat these type of rivals, while Johns Spirit, Wonderful Charm and Double Ross are not good enough. Double Ross may though have something to say in how the race is run, and hence who it is won by.

[b]Cue Card[/b] at 10-1, in my mind at least, is a cracking each way bet. He too needs a bit of forgiveness, but at least we know he is good enough to take this prize home. If you stop the tape in last years race at 2 out, he's the winner plain and simple. I was halfway through texting Wow to my brother. It had been a superb performance, and he had them cold. Then what happened??

It's hard to say. He had won over a furlong further at Haydock previously, though times suggest that the distance was not as advertised. If it was just lack of stamina, and considering how SC suddenly sailed past him, why was CC staying on again at the line? I think he will stay. No problem.

He was very disappointing last time at Haydock. But its fairly easy offer an excuse for that. He totally lost his jumping rhythm down the back. Yes SC could pressure him again, and a similar result may ensue, but CC is an excellent jumper, and he may simply have had an off day. If Ruby doesn't make an effort to get an early lead on CF, Jacob will surely allow CC to stride on. I would hope they don't try hold him up.

Given the doubts about the other main participants, given that CC started 10-3 joint fav for this last year and looked the best horse in the race for 22 furlongs, the 10-1 on offer seems very big. The 5-2 a place is superb value. Does SC really have as much chance of winning as CC has of placing? Not in my book.

For those who like a trade, given the weather doesn't shout mud bath for Friday, I think CC will be the main market mover, probably going off around the 6-1/13-2 mark, maybe even lower. And as sure as I'm having gravy on my turkey....he wont be 3.5 to place!!

Looking forward to it immensely, just 3 more days to work, and 3 Christmas dinners to get out of the way first!!
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Report punchestown December 21, 2014 10:28 PM GMT
Excellent write up,like Champagne Fever myself,hoping it's toughened up a bit in time.
Report frank60 December 21, 2014 10:38 PM GMT
As Callit says Dynaste came here as joint fav last year 8/1 E/WAY is a cracking bet[all bookies paying 1/4 odds a place] i belive we will see the best of him on the 26th, ..as ever a fine write up by Callit
Report punchestown December 21, 2014 10:47 PM GMT
Think Dynaste is just a tad short of being top drawer,well beaten in this last year and well behind Silviniaco Conti (10 Lengths) at Haydock this November.
Report punchestown December 21, 2014 10:49 PM GMT
P.S,you can get 4's here now on Champagne if you feel it's a good price.
Report callitasucit December 21, 2014 10:54 PM GMT
Just seen that. I feel he could be bigger again on the day though. Few factors that may be overplayed by the market. WPM record outside the festival, CFs Xmas record, his unproven stamina etc. All of which don't trouble me, as there are reasons for them all, but I believe they will push his price out.
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2014 11:10 PM GMT
Terrific write up Callit,think there isn,t much between the likes of Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card, Dynaste,Menorah, Al Ferof,they have all come across each other before and plenty of reverses and little distance between them,hard to say which will finish in front of another and no surprise what happens.  Champegne Fever? Champion hurdle winning form for him in the past with My Tent and Jezki. The issue part is the trouble alright,at Clonmelmade a mess of the 3rd(?),turned into the straight 1st time and the ears were like antennae,headed ears flat back,pity Realt Dubh made a mistake 2 out,but CF ear flicked just before the last,plenty left but some thinker. Flawed genious to feck up possibly,have to be worried with jumping and attitude but up against much of a muchness and has nearly done enough over hurdles to say he could be 170+,think either way you could kick yourself if you backed him or let him go but think i'll be hoping his a good boy on the day.
Report callitasucit December 21, 2014 11:21 PM GMT
Yeah, even the day he beat Melodic Rendevouz in the Punchestown Champion Bumper, he looked for a second like he was going to pull himself up. Though I wouldn't have bothered leaving the bed, never mind the starting gate that day. Horrendous conditions.

Whoever wins, it promises to be treat.

Cracking racing all day on Fri. Vautour looks the best novice chaser since Sprinter Sacre(Un de Sceaux could be the 2nd best!), Kalkir impressed me more than any other 3yr old hurdler in a long time, and Faugheen is Frankel over 8 flights!! That treble pays 13-8 by the way.....yes pleaseGrin
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2014 11:30 PM GMT
Very impressed with Un De Sceaux as well yesterday,he is fnding it hard to get a challenger in a race. Doesn't look a bad treble at all, before i know who he is up against R$ocky Blier impressed me on the flat last couple of runs,like to see him make a debut.
Report callitasucit December 21, 2014 11:44 PM GMT
On a side note to the Christmas Hurdle at Kemp, Irving currently 5.4, SOV about 10. I would like to bet SOV in a match bet at them percentages.
Report neill d December 22, 2014 3:58 AM GMT
Excellent stuff and a very cogent case.
Report tyronesam December 22, 2014 10:31 AM GMT
Excellent write up, I'm a big silviniavo fan, feel the horse has got some unjustified bad press. Could be called the winner a LONG way out at haddock and think he will prove how good he is on Friday...great looking field, good luck all
Report paulie wallnuts December 22, 2014 4:39 PM GMT
Pa..... Rocky Blier is owned by Connell and as a result is going to be no good.....a rubbish purchase as per usual.....the only reason Connell gets him is because nobody else wanted him of course.....150k for a horse worth about 10.....nothing new in that i suppose.....GH Bloodstck signing.....if he runs in Leopardstown it will not be found.....
Report pa lapsy December 22, 2014 9:12 PM GMT
There's a want in someone to give you a load of stars for that reply Paulie,you might be right,he may not be anygood over flights but worth 10k after winning a premier handicap with plenty of 90 odds and a couple a 100+ behind is a bit out. He grabbed my imagination at the flat backend,mightn't be Stephens Day(not a fierce hot race to me with the entries) but think he might be a decent enough buy.
Report CheltenhamRoar December 22, 2014 10:19 PM GMT
a load of stars LaughLaugh someone must rate his reply Shocked
Report paulie wallnuts December 22, 2014 11:03 PM GMT
Pa....Rocky Blieier will be nowhere in that race of he turns up....connells colours are the colours of death pa.... he has the opposite to the Midas touch when it comes to horses.... If you drew a line through every horse that carry those colours then you wouldn't do any harm ....as everybody knows Connell will be aiming a lot of his horses at leopardstown ....how many winners will he have.... Not many possibly not any would be my guess....
Report pa lapsy December 23, 2014 9:31 AM GMT
He has poor statistics alright Paulie ,more so given the cost of his horses.Hasn,t a lot really,The Tullow Tank could be gone,other than that not sure about Golantilla,Velvet Maker might be decent but a lot of handicappers as well.Agree with the lads here with Foxrock. Think it was good of him to give Alan Fleming a few youngsters after he came back from England,but can't dispute the point you are making that his decision making has generally been poor though i think done in the right spirit.
Anyway Paulie thats the opening maiden hurdle,back to the topic,what do do make of Champagne Fever?
Report punchestown December 23, 2014 1:28 PM GMT
Think Golantilla is stuffed is stuffed pa,next time out for TTT will be telling.
Report punchestown December 23, 2014 1:29 PM GMT
Sorry about the stutter Laugh
Report Bigwillystyle December 23, 2014 1:49 PM GMT
Champagne Fever will win if he settles.  Brilliant jumper and thankfully its an easy three miles as stamina would be a doubt for me.  I know people go on about his pedigree but the horse has serious pace as he showed in Supreme and Arkle races! Dont mind what the ratings say if he is right he would pick this lot up and carry them!
Report kavvie December 23, 2014 2:18 PM GMT
mullins  english record outside cheltenham is very poor.also horse seems better in march/april.also stamina doubts  hard back him  for me at 7/2.
Report kingrat December 23, 2014 2:25 PM GMT
any sign of tony,lads?
Report Bigwillystyle December 23, 2014 2:27 PM GMT
Backed him at 7's.  Wouldnt back him at 7/2 either.  He has been layed out for this.  Different things have gone wrong at Christmas over last few years, for which there are legitimate excuses which were not made public at the time!  I would be confident he will run his race.

As for Mullins English record i have said many times that he is sending these horses over as an after thought.  You saw the two last week in Ascot.  The bumper mare is Tiny and is a summer mare of limited ability, while the novice hurdler wouldnt be in the top 10-12 novices in the yard.  Ye boys should be laying these horses.

More than likely he will have a double on one of the biggest British cards of the year on the 26th.
Report workrider December 23, 2014 5:13 PM GMT
Can't believe for a moment this , sends them over as an afterthought , what a load of tripe , what trainer no matter who , wants to be thought of as a fool sending horses over at huge expense to his owners never mind the amount of time spent on the exercise ..Pure rubbish imo...
Report norn iron December 23, 2014 5:25 PM GMT
NEVER SEEN MORE OPEN RACE  ANYONE THINK IT WILL BE VERY HEAVY GROUND OR JUST SOFT ?
Report frank60 December 23, 2014 5:36 PM GMT
Workrider as a matter of interest how much would it cost for a irish trainer[owners] to send over a horse to the UK for  a race. I have no idea myself. ty
Report The Gotchee December 23, 2014 5:38 PM GMT
Cue Card is the forgotten horse in this race and he represents a decent e/w bet at 8/1. The form of his Betfair Chase win last year is hard to overlook. Remember, he was favourite for this race last year and looked like winning easily going to the second last. He  has returned this year with two slightly below par efforts but having been injured I suspect he needed the runs. This is what his trainer had to say yesterday  "His run in the Betfair last time out was disappointing, but he blew for a long time afterwards which suggests we had left him short. He has really started to blossom over the last three weeks and I have him spot-on for the King George. He'll definitely run a massive race."
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y December 23, 2014 5:42 PM GMT
I wouldn't call his performances this year slightly below par, he ran bloody shocking in the Betfair and his jumping fell to pieces when Fehily put it up to him on Silviniaco Conti on the 2nd circuit
On last years form his price is huge but you have to forgive his runs this year
Report frank60 December 23, 2014 5:44 PM GMT
Gotchee if Cue card trainer is right then he could be a bet to nothing e/way 1/4odds,i must have a look at the markets on the 26th, Morning line might give a few pointers.
Report workrider December 23, 2014 5:46 PM GMT
Never had a runner myself in UK Frank so not up to speed on that , what I do know is some UK courses pay part of your costs when its a big race , Off the top of my head I would estimate with travel costs , lads overtime etc , at least a couple of grand...
Report frank60 December 23, 2014 5:56 PM GMT
Thanks W/R, i sure someone on the forum has an idea, i guess i have a curious nature.Grin
Report The Gotchee December 23, 2014 6:03 PM GMT
I wouldn't go as far as calling them shocking premier, I suspect he needed the runs and all known form it is between himself and Silviano. Champagne Fever is a dreadful price at 9/2, he should be at least double those odds.
Report The Gotchee December 23, 2014 6:07 PM GMT
€1000 or thereabouts to travel to the UK with a single horse.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y December 23, 2014 6:11 PM GMT
I agree re Champagne Fever's price, everybody keeps hammering on about Al Ferof being a shocking price but i would say he has achieved more than Champagne Fever over fences so far and the step up in trip would want to bring out vast improvement in Champagne Fever which it may well do.

As for Al Ferof i really wish Ruby was on board and i would back him, i really ain't a fan of STD (no pun intended). If what Pumpkinhead has said re the ulcers is true Al Ferof's performances last year where not all that bad and his 3rd on soft / heavy ground in this race last year on his first try over the trip starts to look a lot better, he looked very good last time at Ascot giving weight all around to decent rivals (all be it not top grade 1 horses) and if coming on for that i think he could run a massive race, problem is all the juice has been taken out of his price as well at 6s.
Report dj876 December 23, 2014 6:34 PM GMT
Colin Tizzard looked well annoyed with his run at Haydock and Daryl Jacob looked gutted.I think it's far more likely that he's not the same horse since the injury or the KG last year bottomed him. I have no problem forgiving the first run back over an inadequate distance but the Betfair must raise serious doubts about him. I think it's a very difficult race and will be very interesting without any financial involvement.
Report workrider December 23, 2014 6:52 PM GMT
Conti was very impressive at Haydock , and with Nicholls happy with him I'd be inclined to have a few quid on  ...Looked like he was going to win the G/CUP at one stage till faltering for whatever reason , up the hill ..Maybe we are not giving him his dues...
Report Bigwillystyle December 23, 2014 7:02 PM GMT
Wonks why does he leave the vast majority of his top horses at home and bring over the dross if it is not an after thought?
Report workrider December 23, 2014 7:02 PM GMT
Just had a look at Nicholls tips , Says Conti would rather soft/heavy and its currently good I think ..He thinks all his have a good chance over the Christmas ...
Report workrider December 23, 2014 7:13 PM GMT
Willy we've had this debate before ,just to reiterate ..No trainer wants to be looked upon as a fool ,who willy nilly sends his horses huge distances and incurs massive expence for no reward ...Simple ..
Report neill d December 23, 2014 7:21 PM GMT
Workrider, I think he has to send them as his better horses are taking up the available races in Ireland. He's sent over a fair number of twighlight/Grade 3 novices because he needs the Irish races for his best horses, he has 7/10 favs for the Chelts novice races already and he has to run the other horses somewhere.

He is running against Britains best, but ask yourself how would Nicholls/Henderson do sending their second tier horses over to take on Ireland's best. The anwser of course is 'not too well' and I don't think we can read anything into the defeats Mullins has incurred cross channel due to the above.
Report workrider December 23, 2014 7:36 PM GMT
Can't agree Neill , Nicky sent over a very moderate mare to Punchestown recently and she finished second ,  the English plunder many of our major prizes during the festivals ..As has been pointed out here previously ,his UK record apart from Cheltenham is moderate to say the least ..The fear factor is huge here re Willies , get one near one of his and theres hell to pay ...He will do well in Major races when sending his good horses over , of that I have no doubt ..The Grade 1s in the UK are more competitive than here as we have seen over the years ..If I was a owner with Willie and he was sending horses over as an afterthought and without a plan , a horsebox would be outside the yard next morning to take mine away...
Report Bigwillystyle December 23, 2014 7:57 PM GMT
What English horses come over outside of the Punchestown Festival or the Grand National?  None.  They dont come over because they have no chance.  Doubt Willie really cares if an owner turned up to take a horse away.  Owners dont have much of a say and if they want an opinion they can take their horses elsewhere(Look at Potts). 
If you dont have the brain power to see what he is sending over is second division horses then there is no hope for you.  Also he is not sending horses over to grade 1 races as an afterthought.  It is mostly novices in grade 2 or 3's and not his major owners horses either.
Report workrider December 23, 2014 10:36 PM GMT
And thats the whole point , second rate horses going to race in races they can't win , Maybe there will come a day when Willie is begging people to have a horse with him ,how the mighty have fallen , just look at Edward , what wouldn't he do for owners now , there was a time they were begging HIM to take a horse ...
Report Bigwillystyle December 23, 2014 11:30 PM GMT
What horses has he brought over that had no chance on paper?
Report Bigwillystyle December 23, 2014 11:31 PM GMT
Doubt you layed any of them
Report callitasucit December 24, 2014 9:41 AM GMT
The market seems to be taking on a more realistic shape now, with Cue Card top price 8.4 on here. Champagne out to near 6, I don't think his Betfair SP will be much different, but he might drift a slight bit more before a bit of money comes after Willie potentially having two in the bag at Kemp already!

Though SC is obviously the solid one, if no rain materialises, there is scope for him to go off nearer to 3-1 than the current 9-4.
Report frank60 December 24, 2014 10:08 AM GMT
I did 3bets,backed  Dynaste 9.8 and laid S.C 1.68 and  Champagne at 2.04 for a place.the one i cant make out is Cue card .
Report CheltenhamRoar December 24, 2014 12:54 PM GMT
There all much of a muchness in all honesty.None are what you'd call top class,And all have ran a stinker or 2 previously,
Wide open,Stick a pin in in kind of race.Wouldn't be surprised if one of the rags were to steal it.
Report tony57 December 24, 2014 2:38 PM GMT
paul nicholls sends over some of his 2nd raters to down royal every year and plunders grade 1 and 2...?so it can be done..back to the race..i think cf is the best horse in the race but  with the RECORD outside Cheltenham of any but long odds on horses I cant have him..im not sure 3m is his best trip..think bigwilly is right about the speed he shows..but if you are going to get 3m, then kemptons your track..
Report Santry December 24, 2014 6:32 PM GMT
The 3 mile chase division at present is hardly a vintage group and I think Champagne Fever will run them ragged if jumping well. Price is not great but will do.
Report CheltenhamRoar December 24, 2014 6:33 PM GMT
I don't have any doubts that he'll stay,Just a question of wether he's good enough...
Report SoYouThink December 24, 2014 7:25 PM GMT
I am shocked to read comments like Champagne Fever has 'issues' and packs it in when something goes past. This horse is a real battler and has not lost any races for lack of trying. Look at the Bumper and the Supreme where he refused to be beat. Even in the Arkle when Western Warhorse came alongside, he found more and went a length or so up before eventually paying the price for his front-running style. I would view this horse as one of the gamest horses in training. The days he has lost, he has been well beat and Mullins has put forward a few excuses for those defeats.

My concern would be his best form is at Cheltenham and his worst form is at Christmas. I couldn't be too concerned about the 3 miles with his breeding and his connections belief he'll stay. His form over shorter is a bonus as it shows how much talent he is. It's his inconsistency that's the worry but I think that's factored into a price of around 5/1. Anything else is getting a little too short for my liking.

All things considered, Silviniaco Conti looks the safest bet. The King George is always a race where trainers pitch these two and two and a half milers in, kind of hopefully. However you have to go back a long way to find one that wasn't a proper stayer. Edredon Bleu probably. The Cue Cards and the Dynastes of this world would be better served running of different distances - they are running in hope more than anything else. Silviniaco Conti is a proper stayer and a proper jumper. I think he'll win and I think 5/2 or so is probably alright value.
Report frank60 December 24, 2014 7:42 PM GMT
A good thread so far ,lets hope it stays like that.
Report pa lapsy December 24, 2014 7:52 PM GMT
Walsh 22 dec;

"I think he will be suited by the step up in trip,but he is a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde, Champagne Fever on a good day is a very good horse but he has had a few off days when he hasn't been so good".
Report SoYouThink December 24, 2014 7:53 PM GMT
Don't see how you could back Cue Card with confidence either. His two runs this season have been well below what I have come to expect from him. He may have regressed as a result of his injury. It's almost a year since he stopped very suddenly in last year's KG and all the evidence suggests he has not improved.
Report neill d December 24, 2014 7:54 PM GMT
Tony, going to disagree here!!Grin

Kauto Stone won it in 2012, Taranis (who was highly regarded in the context of Nicholls stable at that time), a current Ryanair winner won it in 07', not a second rate horse by any means. He'd have been in the top 5 or 6 in Nicholls stable at the time. Kauto Star won it the other times

Of the 6 Nicholls horses that won the Graduation chase, the Nightingale and Herecomesthetruth were massive talking horses who were indeed Grade 1 class, Noland was also a top class prospect at that time. I'd give you Black Thunder and Cristal Bonus were never likely up to much in our eyes and probably the same with Nicholls, but I remember him speaking highly of the latter in particular and both were probably as good as what he had at the time bar Silviniaco Conti who I think surprised him with hpow good he turned out.

In all, I think Nicholls actually brought, in the large part, some of his best ammo to Down Royal but I can see why people would disagree given what those horses went on to do. But barring Black Thunder, I think they were all thought of as top-class prospects.
Report neill d December 24, 2014 7:56 PM GMT
4 horses that won the Graduation Chase including Kauto Stone.
Report neill d December 24, 2014 7:59 PM GMT
Sorry, typo again, beer getting to me, twas Kauto Stone who was highly regarded in the context of Nicholls stable at the time and Taranis who had proved it on the track with a Ryanair win.

Tying myself in knots here, but I think the argument holds that Nicholls wasn't winning it with his second raters. The Nightingale for example, would have been his equivalent to Un De Sceaux, Noland, his Vautour.
Report neill d December 24, 2014 8:09 PM GMT
Happen to think that Al Ferof might be back to what he was on the basis of the way he travelled the last day and will have an e/w bet on him.

I believe Nicholls on the stomach Ulcers thing.

One thing that struck me, and it isn't the bare form of the Amlin win wouldn't excite but I seem to remember him making a semi-serious mistake 4 or 5 out, it didn't knock a feather out of him and he just kept on tanking, seriously impressive I thought and he might just take these apart tomorrow. Just a hunch, going on the eye on this one, might be glass but fck it.
Report SoYouThink December 24, 2014 8:10 PM GMT
Looking back over Champagne Fever's form, his two runs at the last 2 Punchestown Festivals were very bad and probably unexplained. Maybe a tired horse by then? Maybe isn't suited by Punchestown?

I think in fairness to the horse during his novice hurdling days, he went through a bad patch where his form totally dipped and Mullins seem to suggest at the time the horse wasn't himself.

I don't think he was too well campaigned last season. His run at Christmas last year showed a) he's a very good jumper and b) he, like most horses, is prone to a mistake. I think he should be excused that run on account of the mistake.

On form Silviniaco Conti has the beaten of everything else (bar maybe his stablemate Al Ferof who I'll come to). He's beaten Menorah 4 times and lost to him once and Nicholls says that Wetherby run should be ignored. He beat Cue Card in last year's King George and beat him again in the Betfair Chase and besides Cue Card has way too many doubts about him. Dynaste has lost to him the three times he's faced him.

Al Ferof has doubts as regards the trip and while impressive in the Amlin, looking at the horses he beat that day, it doesn't say much. The fact he went off 5/2 against that field kind of shows the support behind him that day. It could have been stronger.

The only sensible conclusion I can come to is Silviniaco Conti with Champagne Fever, still something of an unknown, the main danger.
Report neill d December 24, 2014 8:14 PM GMT
Re Al Ferof, I think they were wondering whether they still had the same horse and hence the 5/2.
Report The Gotchee December 24, 2014 9:09 PM GMT
The best single piece of form in the race is that of Cue Card's 2013 Betfair Chase where he had  Silviano Conti, Bobs Worth, Long Run,Dynaste and The Giant Bolster behind. In the context of this King George no other horse has come up to that level of form. If Cue Card is back on to his very best (his trainer thinks so) and he jumps reasonably well he will win. Champagne Fever needs to improve a lot to come up to that level of form.
Report paulie wallnuts December 24, 2014 9:39 PM GMT
^^^^^^^Mother of jesus^^^^^^......what a load of bawlox....
Cue Card was at his best last year....jumped exceptionally well.....and still didn't win.....
I don't know what will win it.....nor do I care.....but the gobshiites horse wont win....that's for certain.....
Report callitasucit December 24, 2014 9:45 PM GMT
Hugely different ground this year though Paulie. CF is obviously the unknown, but I have little doubt that of the rest, if each horse in the race ran to their best, Cue Card is certainly the most talented. Does he fully stay 3 miles? I think he will, and at 10-1 was more than prepared to pay to find out.

He will need to jump better than reasonable though.
Report kingrat December 24, 2014 9:51 PM GMT
Step aside,give me room,let the professional through.

Cue card and Champaign going hell for leather from the front,I don't think so.silviiaco is the most solid,especially on this track.ticks all the boxes.can any of the opposition do the same?also lay Champaign for a place.
     Am I right?or am I right?

Cheers and go.ExcitedWink
Report CheltenhamRoar December 24, 2014 10:02 PM GMT
Cant see how Cue Card can win this myself,Couldn't win it in his prime and looks to me his best days are well and truly behind him,
Can understand why people fancy him at the prices though,i just think it's a bit of a minefield and there's no stand out horse bar maybe SC but i just can't get the visions of him faltering up the hill like a drunk last march against some absolute garbage (well in Grade 1 terms)
Report The Gotchee December 24, 2014 10:08 PM GMT
Typical, nothing to offer contribution by paulie.
Why don't you tell the truth about all your user names?
You are a notorious welsher, thats why.

You are a sad lonley plon.ker probably full of soup looking for someone to abuse.
Go to bed ya cupid stunt and sleep it off.
Report kingrat December 24, 2014 10:27 PM GMT
The track is the clinger  chelt roar.
Report callitasucit December 24, 2014 10:48 PM GMT
So You Think, I wouldn't disagree that CF is a battler. He ertainly did put the head down and dig in in his two festival victories. He was never headed though. Its a strange one. The Arkle is the only race he has been just beaten in. In other races, once beat, he has certainly seemed to raise the white flag very quickly. Brian Cooper seemed to try overly aggressively to get by him turning in on Roi du Mee in Clonmel. I wonder if he thought the same?? Get by him here, and he might chuck it in??

Maybe he doesn't like Punch. As I said earlier, he seemed hesitant in victory in his bumper there. Maybe Ruby is right, maybe he just have his off days, when he doesn't fancy it.

Im a big fan of him at his best, and will certainly be backing him Fri the way the betting is going. As predicted, the market is over reacting to these factors.

Its a fascinating race on a number of levels. Certainly not easy to solve.

It might be easier to just have the whole loot on Kalkir at WHs 2-5!!
Report frank60 December 24, 2014 10:54 PM GMT
2013 William Hill King George Chase - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2kcbZD85nQ
Report tony57 December 26, 2014 8:50 AM GMT
its all about opinions neill, but I disagree..some of the nicholls horses you mentioned were not grade 1 mate..i think I made my point..lol..best of luck to all today..
Report CheltenhamRoar December 26, 2014 1:15 PM GMT
My pin had landed on Menorah...
Report workrider December 26, 2014 2:16 PM GMT
Have ended up backing C/Fever myself ...
Report kingrat December 26, 2014 8:53 PM GMT
He came with the name Cincinnati
Report kingrat December 26, 2014 9:00 PM GMT
A kid with no ace in the hole

On a hot poker pot,Cincinnati

Had staked his heart and soul
Report kingrat December 26, 2014 9:04 PM GMT
He played night and day like a demon

And prayed for that one lucky day

When the lush royal flush of his dreaming

Is just a game away
Report kingrat December 26, 2014 9:12 PM GMT
Beyond all the green felt shadows

His own queen of hearts will wait

But till he's king of the green felt shadows

She'all wait,and wait and wait
Report kingrat December 26, 2014 9:16 PM GMT
For sure as the cards will be fallin'

And chips in the pot pyramid

For a buck ,lady luck will be calling
Report Mr Mischief December 26, 2014 9:23 PM GMT
Whoa, The Cincinatti kid
Report kingrat December 26, 2014 9:25 PM GMT
Whoah,the cincinnati kid

I mean the Cincinnati kid

Who ah the Cincinnati kid

Who ah the Cincinnati kid

I I'm talking about the Cincinnati kid

Everybody knows about the Cincinnati kid

Have you heard about that the Cincinnati kid
Report kingrat December 26, 2014 11:25 PM GMT
All messing aside,it was a brilliant ride by fehily and the tactics of nicholls,to ride it from the front and burn them.who would have thought it.in fairness that was well thought out .nicholls always studies the opposition.

   But I will tell this,I will be looking to oppose silviniaco in the gold cup.
Report neill d December 27, 2014 3:46 AM GMT
Nicholls is proving himself to be the nest NH trainer in England, Henderson isn't driven enough, he isn't 'on it' like Nicholls. My Tent, Sprinter and Simonsig are near equivalent horses to the Nicholls era of dominance, but Nicky is wrapped up somewhere else. The Binocluar thing, when Kauto took the fall, the market never moved an inch, tells the story. Nicholls, for everything, is a great trainer who gets every ounce out of waht he has, and it really is only him now.

Fehily is top class, a better rider than McCoy or Johnston. Some careers are a travesty really, should have won 10* what he has. He has the talent of Carberry without the bullshit.
Report CheltenhamRoar December 27, 2014 11:10 AM GMT
i agree with ye there ratser,He's never won at Cheltenham in 3 attempts,Cheltenham is not his track as a blind man would tell ye having witnessed his effort in last years Gold Cup.
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