King George

Still a few days away, but there looks to be some value to be had in playing early.

Silviniaco Conti is probably a deserved favourite. Like many others I feel, I have been guilty of not giving this fine sort due credit. Maybe he has suffered from coming in the immediate aftermath of Kauto Star and Denman. He quite possibly could have won the last two Gold Cups only for falling and bizarrely faltering. But to my eye he is more of a slogger than a true top top class 3m chaser. Unfair maybe, but on ground that looks like being less testing than last year, I think he can be taken on.

Champagne Fever is next in the market, and is the real unknown here. I always viewed him as a stayer, and took the 20-1 on offer for next years GC during the off season. He made a fine seasonal debut, though in reality done no more than was expected in the circumstances. He has yet to prove he will stay 3m, though if a horse is going to get it anywhere its at Kempton on less than bottomless ground.

He hasn't lit up Christmas on his previous festive forays, being beaten in a bumper in his first year, then again burning punters fingers in the St Stephens Day feature again at Leopardstown last year. He made a horrendous error that day, and Ruby seemed to mind him after that. But again, worryingly, he didn't seem too interested once headed. I do believe he has issues, but on his day is a joy to watch. I still cant believe he didn't win the Arkle at Chelt after the exhibition of jumping he put in. He battled well that day, as he did when victorious 12 months previously in the Supreme. Its just when something coasts past, he seems to jack it in. Minsk, Jezki, Balder Success and Defy Logic seem to have broken his heart too easily.

All that said, I think he will take all the beating here. I expect Ruby to let him go the front pretty early, and use his exuberant jumping to try and turn the screw on those in behind. I don't think he is worth backing now, as I feel he will certainly drift, and that 4-1 will be freely available on the day.

Current 3rd choice of the market is Al Ferof, another bold jumping grey. He has had his niggles, and maybe hasn't quite fulfilled expectations over fences. When faced with the elite, he has consistently come up short. True he looked superb at Ascot a month ago, but that was a race he was fully entitled to win. His jumping was also flawless. But in his two forays over 3mile, he hasn't proved his stamina. True the ground was very testing here last year, and maybe something was amiss in Newbury last February. But at 6-1, for a horse yet to beat the best over fences, he seems to require too many excuses to be made on his behalf.

Dynaste came here as joint fav last year, and I had been backing him for months. My interest in the race through him didn't quite last as long. A wind op later, he proved successful in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, but that was against animals at least one rung below what he faces here. He had a similar prep to last year in the Betfair Chase, but whether he is quite good enough to topple the best remains to be seen.

Menorah has found a new lease of life this year. He was a surprise winner of the Charlie Hall, but followed that up with a cracking effort in the Betfair, making Sil Conti pull out all the stops. Has he suddenly improved?? I'm sceptical, and if he hasn't he wont be winning. Philip Hobbs had an unreal run for a couple of months, and maybe his charges were a few weeks ahead of his contemporaries.

Wishful Thinking has never promised to beat these type of rivals, while Johns Spirit, Wonderful Charm and Double Ross are not good enough. Double Ross may though have something to say in how the race is run, and hence who it is won by.

[b]Cue Card[/b] at 10-1, in my mind at least, is a cracking each way bet. He too needs a bit of forgiveness, but at least we know he is good enough to take this prize home. If you stop the tape in last years race at 2 out, he's the winner plain and simple. I was halfway through texting Wow to my brother. It had been a superb performance, and he had them cold. Then what happened??

It's hard to say. He had won over a furlong further at Haydock previously, though times suggest that the distance was not as advertised. If it was just lack of stamina, and considering how SC suddenly sailed past him, why was CC staying on again at the line? I think he will stay. No problem.

He was very disappointing last time at Haydock. But its fairly easy offer an excuse for that. He totally lost his jumping rhythm down the back. Yes SC could pressure him again, and a similar result may ensue, but CC is an excellent jumper, and he may simply have had an off day. If Ruby doesn't make an effort to get an early lead on CF, Jacob will surely allow CC to stride on. I would hope they don't try hold him up.

Given the doubts about the other main participants, given that CC started 10-3 joint fav for this last year and looked the best horse in the race for 22 furlongs, the 10-1 on offer seems very big. The 5-2 a place is superb value. Does SC really have as much chance of winning as CC has of placing? Not in my book.

For those who like a trade, given the weather doesn't shout mud bath for Friday, I think CC will be the main market mover, probably going off around the 6-1/13-2 mark, maybe even lower. And as sure as I'm having gravy on my turkey....he wont be 3.5 to place!!

Looking forward to it immensely, just 3 more days to work, and 3 Christmas dinners to get out of the way first!!