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applehunter
27 Aug 14 13:07
Joined:
Date Joined: 07 Apr 07
| Topic/replies: 12,625 | Blogger: applehunter's blog
2nd leg of playoffs.

Down to 100 players.

Winning score is averaging c. -20 so it is going to be a birdie fest.

I'm looking at

Webb Simpson -  previous win here in 2011 came after a win at the Wyndham. T5 there a fortnight ago augers well for another good showing.
Brendt Snedker -   3 top tens in last 4 appearences. Usually makes his share of puts.
Brendan de Jonge - Top 10 here last year. @ 320 he is worth a small interest.
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Report huddys September 1, 2014 8:02 PM BST
Backed Henley for small money for the interest 4/1,call send you a message on betfair,the phone playing up,
Report callitasucit September 1, 2014 8:23 PM BST
One more bird for Senden should see him seal the top 20.

Thought Rory was going to be stiff there. Big putt coming. Bit between his teeth if he drains it.
Report huddys September 1, 2014 8:29 PM BST
Great bounce back by Rory,going to be some back nine,
Report callitasucit September 1, 2014 8:32 PM BST
Time to hit the lay button on Day. 14 under and bogey free for the front 9 this week.......2 over for the back 9. Considering he is a weak finisher in any case, its hard to see him pull this off. Shame there no liquidity in top 5 market, that might be the place to lay him.
Report callitasucit September 1, 2014 9:02 PM BST
Rory may have ran out lives now.

A birdie birdie eagle finish for Senden would please me!
Report Ozymandius September 1, 2014 9:06 PM BST
Borneo, how long before you can replenish your pot on here?
Report Ozymandius September 1, 2014 9:07 PM BST
After the latest manly all-in fiasco,that is.
Report Distant View September 1, 2014 9:19 PM BST
Really dreadful stuff from Day yet again.
Report easygold September 1, 2014 9:22 PM BST
All In????????? that is Vicky Coren`s move in poker???
Report easygold September 1, 2014 9:29 PM BST
Hi Cal, what is your points system per point (i.e £10,£20,£50,£100)
Report callitasucit September 1, 2014 10:06 PM BST
Replied to that in a PM Easy.
Report Ozymandius September 1, 2014 10:08 PM BST
Quite right too.  Next thing you will be asking him how many acres he has.
Report easygold September 1, 2014 10:34 PM BST
Cheers Cal, a clear 5th will do fine.
Report callitasucit September 1, 2014 10:37 PM BST
Fu** ya Rory. Looks like making eagle to deprive Senden of top 5. Where was that brilliance when I wanted it! Cruel!
Report easygold September 1, 2014 10:39 PM BST
i`M a straight talker Oz, u shud know from my threads, didn`t think I was that nosey.
Report huddys September 1, 2014 10:42 PM BST
Thank God Rory missed for you call,
Report callitasucit September 1, 2014 10:46 PM BST
Pity the boll*x made the one back! Honestly, he is the bane of my gambling life! Ever since backing him to win in his US Open, I cant remember calling him right. And when he wins, he invariably costs me. Everyone has there bogey player/jockey/trainer.....hes mine!!

Horschel should be ashamed of himself there. And he smiling after it. Idiot.
Report easygold September 1, 2014 10:49 PM BST
Well Done Henley, a few bob back.
Report huddys September 1, 2014 10:59 PM BST
Rory is the same to myself Callasucit can never catch him,great putt by him for you easygold,
Report easygold September 1, 2014 11:05 PM BST
Yeah, like his attitude to the game. Cheers Hud..
Report Kelly September 1, 2014 11:44 PM BST
One of the secrets to "catching" Rory in running is to wait until he makes a mistake ( like he did early tonight ), at which stage he drifted to 8 .  I backed him then , and laid back around 4'ish . His bounce back factor is one of his greatest assets , has been doing it for a long time ( 2013 largely excepted , I ignored him for that year , as posted regularly ) .

As with Tiger in his hey day , if you get decent odds on Rory at some stage in a tournament ( provided there is time left) he has been worth backing , because invariably his odds fluctuate , including downwards . I think the secret is not to be greedy , and to trade out with guaranteed profit .  He has been some cash cow for anyone backing/ trading him this year , particularly over the last 3 months .
Report Ozymandius September 2, 2014 8:31 AM BST
Cry WAC
Report paulie wallnuts September 2, 2014 10:29 AM BST
Fair play to Kelly .... He seems to be on top of his game.....the song know when to hold em know when to fold them doesn't half spring to mind.....
Report wildmanfromborneo September 2, 2014 11:01 AM BST
Sometimes you have to admit defeat,Kelly must have taught DJ876 as they have the perfect system.

All this reviewing races,studying form,taking notes,studying breeding is a cod,you just back whatever it is at the high price lay at the low price and you have a locked in profit.

This new form of gambling is like Texas Hold Em in that it has taken over and wiped out all the opposition,it is ironically the antithesis of gambling.

This new parasitical gambler now resides everywhere,he is in Ladbrokes,Paddy Power and Boyles and is punting the live ones,he is now on the racecourse masquerading as a bookmaker retailing through the purple.
Report Kelly September 2, 2014 12:07 PM BST
Dont have the perfect system , wildman .  But on the golf if you know the game you can see when a player is playing well , or badly .  Otto for instance got out of jail about 10 times in his final round on Sunday , I had laid him because he was not playing well despite being in the lead , and he had tweaked his back on Saturday evening . Posted accordingly .  With a tweaked back you cant go through with the shot , you protect your body , hence he was pulling every shot left .  Despite that he won , one of the commentators said he shoud have rushed out and bought a lottery ticket because he would have collected .Sometimes the gods are on your side , he used up all his karma for the season on Sunday .

The body language is also significant in golf , more so than most other sports . Ross Fisher putted brilliantly for 2 days last week , having spent a while the previous week with the best putting coach in the world , then he reverted to type the last day , putted like a startled rabbit which just popped up out of the ground .  Some of his putts , dead straight , from 5 or 6 feet did not even reach the hole . Good player , poor putter , Padraig showed him all the lines when he partnered him in the Ryder Cup , Fisher putted brilliantly with Padraig there to tell him the lines . Take Padraig away and he would have been lost . Confidence , body language .

I used to spend lots of time analysing races , when I was  going punting on the racecourse .  Trouble became that no one would lay you , particularly if there was any money about for your fancy .  Dont know what its like on course now , except I hear ( and see occasionally) that most bets get hedged back straight away on the machine .  Possibly that is the inevitable result of the new "system "  , but the bookies/ chains have just become bean counters .  The old stlye stand up and lay em bookies I suspect are gone forever . And the punters have also had to change to adapt to new situation .

There is no glory in being a gambler , unless you make it pay .  It might make some people  feel like a "big fella" talking about their bets .  Pointless if they have just backed a loser .

As dj said earlier , the only guaranteed profit system is simultaneous arbitrage  , isn't there too often !
Report Ozymandius September 2, 2014 12:13 PM BST
No self awareness. Any excuse to babble away at enormous length with little or no relevancy to previous points made in his direction.

#infuriating
Report pa lapsy September 2, 2014 12:19 PM BST
"It might make some people feel like a big fella talking about their bets"
Haven't you just done that yourself and worse then anyone on the thread waited til the result was known before you posted your bet which amazingly was a winning one which yet again like Sunday had perfect timing(both posted after event).
Report Ozymandius September 2, 2014 12:24 PM BST
Allow me to be blunt; you are a boring, long-winded, self-appreciating, name-dropping after-timing ****.

Other than that you are grand.
Report freddiek September 2, 2014 12:32 PM BST
Ozy i've seen you aftertiming too. must have been a rare occasion you got one right.
Report paulie wallnuts September 2, 2014 12:37 PM BST
The bit that I really like is the ignoring Rory's bounce back in 2013.....that is a classic.....did a bell ring and tell him that his bounceability was over for  a while.....and then a year later they started playing the tune "guess who's back".....
Report Kelly September 2, 2014 12:58 PM BST
Paulie , you obviously know nothing about golf , or Rory .  I do , on both counts , he hails from this part of the world , we know his seed and breed , and know his mates / friends .  We hear things .

The golf forum in 2013 was littered with posts from me advising people not to back Rory . So when someone gets it right give them credit for it and dont be a begrudger . At the start of this year I posted up green shoots for Rory , and then outright commendation re backing him .  Think history has shown I was right .  I backed him at 28/1 for the Open around that time . And posted accordingly .

Re aftertiming , it is just begrudging nonsense from some forumites who would find fault with anything that moves . I posted up weeks ago that I had taken all I could on Kerry at 9/1 , and advised others to do likewise , think it was in kingrats thread  , so lets get the facts straight .

It does seem to me that Ireland in particular has increasingly become a nation full of begrudgers , and this forum is no exception to that . Probably the reason I seldom post tips and for the demise of a lot of clued in and decent posters years back .  Constant begrudgery is a pain in the butt , but we all know the guilty , just wish they would go away . 

When people get it right there are few accolades
Report Ozymandius September 2, 2014 1:02 PM BST
Painful.  you really need a reality check.
Report Kelly September 2, 2014 1:02 PM BST
And pa , I thought you were above nonsense .
Report Kelly September 2, 2014 1:04 PM BST
We already know about Ozy and Paulie .
Report freddiek September 2, 2014 1:05 PM BST
Kelly, you obviously have superior golfing knowledge and you're decent enough to share it with the forum but you're better off keeping it to yourself for the reasons you've described.

I thought Ozy would restrict himself to jibes about various people's families but he seems to have a problem with winners as well.

He'd be happier if he gave it up.
Report Ozymandius September 2, 2014 1:06 PM BST
The fact that Pa has spoken in the manner he has really should give you pause for thought.

Has it?  Of course not.
Report Kelly September 2, 2014 1:07 PM BST
I keep most of it to myself , freddiek , but sometimes you have to correct errant nonsense . And knock back the begrudgers who would try to take over the world .
Report pa lapsy September 2, 2014 1:08 PM BST
Post above is nonsense in regards begrudgery Kelly,people are quick on here to congrat a winner, It is your after timimg that you backed McIlroy at his big price and sold him small,a few posted yesterday about backing Mcilroy,you know him so well but not a peep from you pre-event,except til after where it was bad grace to rub the noses(unintentionally I,m sure) with your 23.44.
Report freddiek September 2, 2014 1:10 PM BST
appreciate that Kelly. You make a valuable contribution to this forum unlike your detractors.
Report frank60 September 2, 2014 1:11 PM BST
Another good thread f/up
Report Distant View September 2, 2014 1:34 PM BST
The main problem with Kelly (in reference to these posts and not in general) is that he is inconsistent.

He has previously referred to the buzz of having a winner and I recall this in relation to racing where he very much came across as the average Joe Soap punter popping down to the shop etc. This is completely inconsistent with a trader who lays Otto at around 1/1 on the basis that he is injured, others can come at him and he also can be shaky in front, only to claim that he quickly got out at around the same price, once what he was gambling on,actually occurred.

It is the same with the Rory trading here. You were obviously on line and adding something to the discussion at the time people were placing the bets would have been helpful. By your admission the betting size is not important these days, so taking your eyes off the markets for a second to post thoughts would not have been critical. This is not compulsory obviously, but discussing it afterwards when everyone can be wiser after the event can annoy people.

I have seen this for a long period of time, such as the brilliant position you claimed you had in the 2013 Muirfield Open despite the two selections that you highlighted before the event (Oosthuizen who was injured and Clark who has a dreadful Open record)looking like complete stabs in the dark. You may well have been actively trading it for quite some time, but nothing in the analysis pre-event led to the conclusion that it was a profitable tournament for you, only for you to claim this afterwards.

When Rory won in Australia to break his poor run, you carefully phrased each post during the tournament in such a way that your position was not clear but you could come out on either side of the whatever the result was, when the review was taking place on here.

I read few threads on here other than a few racing related ones, but I always read the golf ones and that is where I pick up on this. Callit is a great poster on here and says it like he is and puts his neck on the line each week and that is why the golf thread interests me.

I cannot make any comment about other threads.
Report pa lapsy September 2, 2014 1:34 PM BST
Sorry an all if i upset ya Frank60,i,m saying it as i see it,not a fan of after timing at all,particulary in the circumstances and the begrudgery excuse i find unpalatable as well.
Good luck to ye now.
Report frank60 September 2, 2014 1:57 PM BST
Ithink you know Pa that i was,nt just refereing to you, sry if you thought that[i did,nt have my cornflakes this morning] On a positive note i have been looking at the Gleneagles golf resort site and i would recommend it to any lover of golf.
Report Kelly September 2, 2014 2:06 PM BST
No idea where you formed opinins distant view . It is a long time since I was an average joe soap punter , that aspect ( if it ever applied )disappeared for any sensible person when Betfair surfaced  and any intelligent person reconfigured a new approach to betting .

Highlighting selections such as Oosthuizen and Clark is just an attempt to throw mud .  They would both have been big odds and nobody would have been having a serious bet on them . Dart throwing essentially . A couple of quid on them for interest is insignificant in comparison to other serious bets  , and I probably laid them back in running , cant remember back to that , lots of water under the bridge since then . I always lay back , bird in the hand .  If people think that is daft or unmanly  , tough .  The proof of the pudding is in the eating .

Inconsistency is not an adjective that has ever been applied to me in any walk of life . I call everything the way it is , would not find it possible to tell or post a lie , its the way I was brought up and live my life .

And every Open is a gravy train with Betfair providing the platform . For trading at least , I am essentially a layer , looking for losers .  Easier to pick than winners .

Callit is an excellent poster .
Report callitasucit September 2, 2014 2:06 PM BST
Kelly, you obviously know your golf, but whether you know Rory, his friends, his family, or what colour jocks he wears on Thursdays, well frankly I doubt anyone gives a toss. So no need to consistently mention it.

I don't really doubt your telling the truth, and would agree with your assertion that the country is full of begrudgers, but I do think its a bit rich to constantly come on after the event and declare all your bets winning ones, even the losing ones. WMFB and Ozy stated before the event that they were wading into Rory, they lost. It happens. I don't think they were being 'big men' about it.

If you haven't got the faith in your opinions to put them up before the event, or when you strike your bets, I don't think anyone cares for you informing them afterwards that you backed at the highest point, or laid out at the lowest.

I don't criticise others selections, and certainly don't begrudge winners, or mock losers. I wont come on celebrating a winning selection, and certainly not one that I hadn't made known beforehand. I find it more than slightly condescending for you to arrive like the Perfect Gambler/Trader after the event, and tell others what they have done wrong.

A little humility may be the order of the day.
Report Kelly September 2, 2014 2:56 PM BST
Callit still an excellent poster .

If you are a trader callit , it is essential that your bets are winning ones .  Otherwise you might as well give it up . It is possible to make money on a huge number of players in a golf tournament , given there are 156 starters often .  One Open I won money on 46 players in the field  , probably lost on 2 or 3 . Hard work over a long period before and during the event . That is fact , if it annoys people ( because it's their money possibly) or sounds like aftertiming , so be it , wont keep me awake at night . Only true traders will understand my point of view , traditional punting seldom takes my eye these days , 4 or 5 outright bets a year on the horses , usually a decent priced animal each way , as I have become more risk averse with age ( reference that article / interview with JP some years ago , JP used to be a punter , not nowadays except for fun ).

Man is the product of his environment .  Betfair changed the betting environment for ever . Some of us adapted to incorporate new systems , not glamourous , but time consuming ( and profitable). If that is seen as some form of diminishment , tough .     

The "punters" on here like to post up their selections pre event . Picking winners at the golf up to Rory's reappearance has been impossible , golf form used to be predictable more or less , since Tiger disappeared it has been nigh on impossible on form , which is what I have always been in favour of , golf or horse or rugby or cricket or whatever . I backed Rory at 28/1 largely because I knew  he would never be that price in running , means holding your bet occasionally up to the off , but invariably someone wants a bet at lower odds .  I also backed him every time he went big pre event , again because I knew he would be shorter .  The same comment applied to a few others in the event , I took all the 90 Bubba on here and all the big prices of a few others , including Oosthuizen this year 2014 , made money on him laying back , despite the fact that he started 130 or so . Posting info like that on here when you do it is futile , people will accuse you of ramping / aftertiming  , you pay your money and you take your chance . These comments are facts , if they are construed as after timing I cant give a hoot , I know what I do , it is / has been succesful beyond my wildest dreams of 13 years ago . Ignore it if you like , or call it what you like , but it works --every day ( or nearly so ) . Humility does not interest me , anyone who knows me knows that I am 100% , and a decent addition to the human race  . I sleep well at night  , I will always callit as it as I see it , and truthfully . 

Most of my betting nowadays is in running , including horses occasionally , but golf and cricket are the most interesting  , and by and large there is good liquidity . Unfortunately our Irish markets suffer from inadequate liquidity , most of the posters on here are racing men , know their onions , but I suspect have trouble getting their bets on at the right price .
Report the jolly September 2, 2014 4:40 PM BST
Here is the Kelly Challenge

List 5 bets where you lost money in the last week / month / whatever. Dont need to know the reason why you backed them - just how low you backed them and/or how high you layed them.  Go on, it might be good for your soul.
Report Kelly September 2, 2014 4:57 PM BST
No ones interested , the jolly . Backed Dubs on Sunday at 1.21 , laid them ultimately at 500 . Good enough ?
Report the jolly September 2, 2014 5:01 PM BST
thats a winner ?
5 losers - I will increase the timeframe to a year.  Go on, you can do it.
Report frank60 September 2, 2014 5:18 PM BST
They say the truth sets you free;if kelly is being truthful about his bets so be it, IF NOTBlush
Report Kelly September 2, 2014 5:31 PM BST
The point about golf betting as I do it , the jolly , is not about one player .  I had no bets pre kick off on the Deutsche , which is what this thread is headed up .  In running I backed 5 or so players , traded out generally , built up a profit , at a later stage I did a whole field lay with the market near 100% , but reducing my odds offered on a few who I thought would harden in price , bringing the lay percentage to 105% approx . Generally that works , some might consider it too hard work , I dont .  But it does involve "baby sitting your position " , particuarly if its a whole field lay .

Betfair needs people like me , essentially layers .  There are more punters than layers on here , callit the gambling instinct .  Loads of punters back my offers  or are glad when I lay their bet, hopefully they are satisfied / happy with their transactions  , but essentially all I am in that case is a bookie offering dynamic odds .  And as we all know , bookies never lose !

They do , thats why they close accounts . 

It helps though if you are good on your feet and at sums .
Report the jolly September 2, 2014 5:40 PM BST
challenge failed.
Thanks anyway.
Report frank60 September 2, 2014 5:50 PM BST
I know a lad who earns his living [on betfair] on some of your points in your last post Kelly,like you say it helps if you are good at sums ,he also said you need great Patience ;he is also single man. He said his main source of income come from laying US and AUSSIE RACING.
Report Kelly September 2, 2014 5:52 PM BST
I am a layer , the jolly .  Different mindset to punting .  I spend most of my time looking for losers . Backing people pre event is only a means to an end to establish profit  , once you are in profit you can play around with someone elses money . The Open is brilliant ,you can be making money 4 or 5 months before it starts  , but its hard work and you need a decent bank .  Cant go on holidays either that week in July . Which is a bit of a boll*x given my geographical location and my flag waving fellow citizens .
Report Tolmi September 2, 2014 10:24 PM BST
Some interesting points raised..a couple of questions Kelly

Do you pay Premium Charge or if you don't how do you avoid it?

What medium do you watch the horse racing on if you are playing in running?

Do your trades show a profit on their own accord or is the profit made from your initial back/lay?
Report Kelly September 2, 2014 11:52 PM BST
Dont pay premium charge Tolmi , thanks to Tiger mainly . Before it hove in sight I was well ahead on my Betfair account , top 1.5% the one and only time I ever saw them publish figures . Tiger won 3 in a row , and I backed him each time for as much as I could get on at the price . Laid back on here . Plus he won others after that , I was an inveterate Tiger backer on selected courses / events .

Then one day I backed 3 horses each way in doubles and trebles at good odds , looking for the each way value essentially .  All 3 won , I had not enough money in my account to properly cover the bet laying wise as the last horse was 6/1 , it was a Saturday and I could not transfer enough money in to fully recover the running total to date  .  Horse won by 6 lengths , never off the bridle . Flushed out my Betfair account , think I had a tenner in it that evening . Took a long time to collect the winnings , spread over 10 to 12 shops .  Managed a nom de plume for the cheques through a relation with the same christian name as me ( the staff only knew my christian name) .  Liked that . The bookies barred me , and I suspect picked up the phone to other local bookies , found my back to the wall backing wise after that . They are all gone now , taken over by chains , another door closed .

I also set out to lay winners on here , backing equivalently of course , Betfair account is a matter of record , cash bets are not .

Over a couple of years I transformed big winnings to substantial Betfair losses , it was a tactical decision associated with previous sentence . I now attempt to keep winnings to a minimum on Betfair , I transfer winnings to the purple one if possible before the event finishes where possible ( golf mainly), they only charge 3% on winnings .

I only have ATR and Racing UK , most of my in running betting is over jumps , early in the race before it gets too complicated  , and often I back a horse and put in a lower price lay ( sometimes adjusted downwards in running) , but essentially I always lay back , particularly over fences and hurdles . You need to know horses running styles , jockeys styles , course configuration etc , I do , especially in Ireland . But its really only for fun compared with the serious days of yore .

Most of my profit  horse wise comes from initial back or lay , in running element is relatively inconsequential , given the inherent disadvantage in time delays versus "courtside" operators . My main in running now is golf and cricket , but you have to know the whole scenario before you risk too much .  Been playing and watching both those sports since an early age , not sure everybody could decipher what goes on betimes on our screens .
Report wildmanfromborneo September 3, 2014 12:46 AM BST
I think there is a bit of tin roofing going on.

Why are you on a high rate on the purple if you are a trader.

You earlier called yourself a layer you are not,you are a trader.

The reason Betfair are running out of layers is they are getting cleaned out,only layers left are the in the know ones,gentlemen like Seamus OFarrell.
Report Kelly September 3, 2014 1:38 AM BST
Not sure what your post is about wildman . Do purple have different rates for traders as against punters ?

I come essentially from wanting to lay wildman , not back . But I want to lay the whole field ( at my odds) just like Seamus . He "makes a book " , thats why he is called a BOOKmaker . One of the best bookmakers we have ever had in Ireland told me often that there were only a few races each year in Ireland where he managed to lay the whole field . Anyone who restricts themselves to purely laying or purely backing has holes in their head given the possibilities inherent in the betting model we have at our disposal  , unless its only for a bit of fun or interest .. Hence the trading option , you can create your own arbitrage system on here if you are skilful or knowledgeable enough , but its not a simultaneous arbitrage as mentioned by dj I think . Its time delayed . Back high , lay low , or lay low , back high , works both ways . Provided the ball hops for you . Thats the trick . And the ball can hop all night ( slowly) or all day up to the off . And arbitrage is also a possibility , increasingly difficult given the bookie propensity for cutting ( but not extending equivalently ) prices .

Betfair has provided the facility for anyone who wants to lay bets and fashion their own book .Plus the liabilities are immediately available in green and red . Most people want to back winners  , its what drives them to wager .  Taking the time and effort to fashion a profitable "book" is not immediately attractive to most punters , they want to back their fancy and watch it win . I got over that a long time ago , anyway the figures are against profit in  that possibility historically , analagous to casino type activity where the punter cannot win because probability / odds are weighted in the "layers" favour . Have never had a bet in a casino in my life , never will , despite Hollywoods attempts to make winning there seem common place --  dodgy dogma .

I reckon the reason Betfair are running out of layers ( equals bookmakers ) is because of premium charge .  Assuming bookmakers always win they will be paying premium charge , no sensible person would continue their betting habit if someone was taking a huge percentage off the top.

Betfair know this , I think the premium charge was aimed at the bots , but someone screwed up the proposal and extended it to non bot consistent winners . Mistake , they are ( or were) part of the life blood of any exchange model .

And wildman , everything I post is fact or considered honest opinion . Its not in me to spoof , I dont need to .
Report wildmanfromborneo September 3, 2014 8:44 AM BST
Seamus OFarrell is a Kilkenny based trainer who has been warned off for three months for laying his own horse,he took 140 quid out of it at huge odds.

" I reckon the reason Betfair are running out of layers ( equals bookmakers ) is because of premium charge "

DJ876 came out with this nonsense as well,I would say no bookmaker has ever paid the premium charge,no ordinary layer has paid the premium charge.
Plenty pay the premium charge but they are the effectively in cahoots with Betfair,these are the bots that lay the fallers,its why Betfair tolerate them they are in on it.
The reason Betfair are running out of layers is they get cleaned out,its why Betfair do everything in their power to be layer friendly.


You can't make a " book " on Betfair because there is no profit margin,you can trade though which is what the current crop of gentlemen standing on boxes do.

The rates are decided on turnover its how we know Rocketfingers was tinroofing when he talked off of betting in sums that would give us a headache yet was paying 5% commission.
If you are paying 3% on the purple your turnover is tiny.
Report dj876 September 3, 2014 9:29 AM BST
I don't have any interest on commenting on this thread because of how it has evolved (as a a previous poster stated a large dollop of humility is required) but just to correct Mr.Borneo on another mis-representation,I was not inferring to oncourse books and it was in the context of corporate accounts.
Report dj876 September 3, 2014 9:33 AM BST
^^
The Mullins's will have to tighten the screening process.
Report wildmanfromborneo September 3, 2014 9:42 AM BST
No misrepresentation,twice you said it.

You stated clearly that all bookmakers pay the premium charge,I said it was nonsense then but obviously Kelly believed you.

Not your normal verbiage but could you explain " I was not inferring to oncourse bookmakers and it was in the context of corporate accounts "
as I can't make head or tail of it.
Report Kelly September 3, 2014 11:08 AM BST
Wildman , beginning to doubt your mindset .  Others have , myself not among them ( to date) .

3% on purple is  a better rate of commission deduction than I suspect anyone on here pays on Betfair . The lowest commission rate I ever had on Betfair was around 3.5 and I was turning over thousands each day .

Open question to the forum --Anyone on here paying less than 3% commission to Betfair ?

You assert that you cant make a book on Betfair because there is no profit margin .  Dont know where ( or if) you ever had any mathematical training , but it is possible to make a book on a lot of events on Betfair .  Hell they even do the sums for you , maybe you have never noticed . You can configure any market at more than 100% if you know how to do it and have the patience and intelligence to implement it .  It can be slow though , and you need to know what you are doing .

I only use purple sparingly , as I say to transfer profit built up on Betfair over to purple , easy because purple prices follow Betfair like dogs follow bitches in heat , albeit 3 steps behind. Purple prices are seldom market leaders , but invariably they mirror Betfair prices so it is relatively easy to exactly mirror bets ( and sometimes you can nick a few quid ) .

Some of your other statements require answers too , but have not time at present .
Report Ozymandius September 3, 2014 11:10 AM BST
Do I take it that you don't use betting software, kelly?
Report wildmanfromborneo September 3, 2014 11:18 AM BST
I pay 2% commission as does anyone with any sort of turnover.

Do you still believe all bookmakers pay the premium charge.

You are wrong again about the purple as they  lead the way on Irish racing,Betfair are about five seconds behind.

Certain lads love the no premium charge no questions asked policy of the purple and although they are suffering through the lack of liquidity its worth it.

I have a purple account,I pay 1% commission there and they were the only ones betting on the racing in Chicago,Adelaide Magician etcetera.
Report Kelly September 3, 2014 12:14 PM BST
I dont , Ozy .  Just my own brain .

Wildman , I have never investigated purple commission rates , sometimes I go for weeks without logging on . I use them purely as a banking type operation when it works out , to shift profit from Betfair  .  If anyone can fault my logic ( no premium charge on purple ) they are a better man than I am gunga din . I dont like purple , they are owned by the enemy .

And I dont claim to be a "big" operator any more . I certainly have no intention of ever straying into the premium charge net .

Wildman I have never asserted that all bookmakers pay the premium charge , I would't know  , but the most likely payers of premium charge are people who always win , hence any connection , the old saying "the bookies always win" is ingrained in folklore , thats the only possibility . Bookies dont always win , one of my regular weekly golfing friends was the biggest around this island for years and years , on course and SP .  In 1976 he lost 19 weeks in a row , stellar summer , lots of small bookies went to the wall . Banks called him in , he laughed it off , fair play to him . Following year he was back to normal .

Most of us wouldn't take a free bet on racing in the states wildman . They dope there , dont they ?
Report wildmanfromborneo September 3, 2014 12:22 PM BST
The bookmakers that always win are betting to a profit margin.

The layers on here are a much different animal and I contend they never win.

We could try it as an experiment for small stakes,a group of us could lob in a monkey a man and just lay,I guarantee we wouldn't last three months.
Report Kelly September 3, 2014 2:21 PM BST
Layers ( single horse / outcome only) do not win on here I suspect .  In days when I was able to back horses at the right price and lay them back on here at lower prices I kept losing on here , which does bear out your statement. Follow the money was always not a bad maxim , if you allied that to decent form and a trustworthy trainer  , winner finding was not as difficult as people might think .
Report Tolmi September 4, 2014 6:30 PM BST
While not doubting you Kelly I find it hard to reconcile your earlier statement of being one of the top 1.5% of accounts on Betfair with the statement that the lowest commission rate you paid was 3.5%.Maybe you could clarify?Was the top 1.5% in terms of total turnover,total profit or maybe % profit on turnover?When were the figures published?

As regards in running on horses I would sincerely hope you keep it to a minimum on ATR because the time delay will supercede any running style knowledge you might have.

Wildman...Is it your points earned that has your commission rate at 2% or is it a legacy deal based on a time when Betfair were trying to drum up business.I would has thought the 15% weekly decay would affect your rate if one of your all in backs/lays went against you...especially if all in was really all in.

Also you might clarify how a bot manages to lay a faller?
Report Kelly September 4, 2014 7:44 PM BST
Total profit Tolmi .  Cant remember the exact time , think it might have been around 2005  , and presumably the figures would have related to that year .  First 2 years I was on Betfair I was still in the learning process , changed my tack after I lost 1k on those 2 hotpots at Punchestown .

Never remenber them repeating the exercise re clients figures . 

Regarding the relationship between profit and turnover , cant remember .  I just remember that arising out of the info I thought it might be prudent not to repeat the operation too many times .  As I say , Betfair or exchange account is a matter of record , cash transactions are between you and your maker ( as long as you vary your writing , or get others to write out your bets ) .
Report wildmanfromborneo September 4, 2014 8:07 PM BST
I'm out of my depth here but hope to learn.

I have paid the same rate since I started it hasn't varied,I have been hit by the Premium charge,no sooner had they requisitioned it I went on a soul destroying losing run.

I could make a stab at what weekly decay means but its the first time I heard the term.
The longest gap I have had on here was from the 2000 Guineas to the Epsom Derby,courtesy of Dawn Approach.

I have had few bets on Motor Sport but noticed I was charged a 2.6% rate.

The bit about the robots laying the fallers is anecdotal and probably inaccurate.
I was told that a gentlemen in Sweden had some software that was incredibly fast and it automatically mopped up any money waiting to back the said fallers,he was earning a fortune,they employed experts to jam his computer but he was always a step ahead.
The Premium charge was allegedly introduced to curtail his activities but once he carried on despite the penalties they effectively joined forces.

Ozymandius asked earlier what software Kelly used,what is this software,what is its function and do ye all use some of this stuff.
Report Kelly September 4, 2014 8:09 PM BST
Just checked my 2005 diary , Tolmi . Starting Feb  7 appear the following figures : 90, 45,100,200, 230, 80 ,10 ,30 , 220, 200, 250, 150, 80 , 10 ,20 , 130, 110, 30, 30, 100, 150,140,100,200,430,300,60,70,120, 100 ,110 , 250, 200,100,250 280,50,140,120,330,50,350 .  Last week Cheltenham . No figures before Feb 7 , probably in Bali .
Report Kelly September 4, 2014 8:18 PM BST
Wildman , one of the guys in my golf club , computer guy , programmed a computer way back , possibly around 2004 / 5 , set it up each morning , and allegedly was making  £300 a week for him while he was out at work .  Never talked to him myself , but it was the first information I had about bots , although with my own computer background I immediately knew it was possible .  Couldn't be bothered investigating it , maybe that was a mistake , could have been posting this from the Bahamas or one of those Sue Magnier named  horse coves .
Report Tolmi September 4, 2014 8:33 PM BST
Kelly..I presume they are daily profit figures..if so you would have been entering the premium charge if it were around then.

wildman..in order for you to stay on 2% you would need to be winning/losing a four figure sum on every horse race.In addition new customers start on 5% and work down.You starting on 2% seems bizarre.

As for your Swedish robot..I'm sure it could exist but if anyone can explain to me how a robot could react faster to a faller than a track player then I'm all ears.

I can empathise with the loss after the premium charge imposition.I changed a profitable strategy to avoid it and I ended up losing my discipline for a couple of weeks.
Report Kelly September 4, 2014 8:35 PM BST
Apologising for multiples , but when I re read my last post I realised that the said guys uncle taught me in grammar school for 6 years 90% of the maths I ever found useful ( uni maths courses were crap ).
Report wildmanfromborneo September 4, 2014 8:45 PM BST
As far as I know my rate was based on my first deposit with a contingency that it would rise if not enough activity.

The four figure sum on every horse race has me baffled as I would be nowhere near that.

Have a horrible feeling I could be talking myself into a higher commission rate.
Report Tolmi September 4, 2014 8:46 PM BST
Maybe best let sleeping dogs lie wild man!!
Report wildmanfromborneo September 4, 2014 8:53 PM BST
Are you saying you need to turnover around fifty grand a day to be on that 2% rate.

You still haven't explained what weekly decay is.
Report dj876 September 4, 2014 8:55 PM BST
Wildman,

The majority use Gruss (free 30 day trial and €10 per month subscription) or Bet Angel,the software allows you to place bets in one click,you can set it up to whatever suits you,it constantly shows you your revised position ie profit available etc,you can place an automatic offset on your back  or lay and also stop losses. Even if you have no intention of acquiring it, you would find it interesting to look at the contrasting speed of the prices updating on your ladder interface.

The software is linked to a spread sheet and anyone who is proficient in excel can create simple Bots through a "what if" function.The Swedish bot example is nonsensical in reference to fallers and would be very easy to manipulate.

Exchange Points-Go to My Account,promotions and rewards,then exchange points statement,

Once your Discount Rate has been calculated, your Betfair Points balance is reduced by 15%. This is known as the Weekly Decay. If you continue to bet at the same level each week, your Discount Rate will remain unchanged. If your Betfair Points at any time imply a higher Discount Rate, you will move to that rate immediately.
Report pa lapsy September 4, 2014 8:57 PM BST
Good advice from Tolmi,if your account is in profit you should be able to bring up "the Portal" which gives some idea in regards how near you are to it and maybe like Tolmi change tack.
My belief is that charge was originally brought in for advertising new customers(could have fell for that),whatever it may have been for it is the number paying is certainly going to grow,the important part of that portal is the percentage of total charges,open to correction but believe the lower that is,the more likely you are heading there fast(whole thing and again open to correction is as i understand you are not fulfilling some formula of implied commission over commission generated) As most know on here from my posts i'd be unable to convey it adequately though have a vague idea what it means in my head
Anyway the link for the portal is;

https//account.betfair.com/regpay-myaccount/premiumcharge/summary.html
Report Tolmi September 4, 2014 8:59 PM BST
It's obvious that you are not familiar with how the commission rate works.Rather than go into it here for reasons related to my last post I will  ask you to look at the commission structure in the betfair points system explained section contained within my account.
Report Tolmi September 4, 2014 9:05 PM BST
Sorry..my post overlapped with dj876.The portal pa refers to will indicate if you will b liable or are close to being liable to premium charge.

Unfortunately pa changing tack cost me plenty.
Report Kelly September 4, 2014 9:08 PM BST
Tolmi , a lot of my betting was not on singles . So if you had £400 on an 11/4 special treble and the 3 won at 1/3 , 2/5 , and 4/6 the margin was the difference between 11/4 and 2/1 ( approx) . So hard to correlate turnover , profit , and commission rates . And if the SP's were bigger , bigger margins dependent on time frames and initial lays etc .

What some people failed to appreciate was that where a clatter of hotpots won , odds contracted on any pending hotpots due to "recovery procedures " from the bookies . That drove prices on those horses down wards on here also . If the early ones got beaten small profit ( if any ) .
Report pa lapsy September 4, 2014 9:17 PM BST
Thats a pity Tolmi,hard to get an edge,question is could you do it on 22% less and whether you want to on moral grounds,time consumed etc,you have been around for a fair while as well,got a cd when i joined(pc i think was talked about but not sure implemented) and trading was actively encouraged,i'm not so sure am i against it though in a nutshell what it effectively means you are getting something for nothing but markets were certainly way more robust with non penalising the trader imo.
Report Tolmi September 4, 2014 9:18 PM BST
Correct me if I'm wrong but were you punting specials and laying back on here?
Report Tolmi September 4, 2014 9:22 PM BST
I got over it pa.It was paying the premium charge caused me to try to generate commission on sports I didn't know enough about.
Report Kelly September 4, 2014 9:29 PM BST
Yes , Tolmi , but the odds had to be right . No idea on the figures , but most bigger winning days involved winning specials I suspect . Seldom got tricky thankfully . There was another danger , FPP . Most of our local bookies bet that way , occasionally went your way spectacularly , only went against me one day , and I could have got out at 50/1 on here  in the inquiry .  Thought it would have been a waste of money , but there's no accounting for stewards . Plonkers in that case --intimidation , a couple of yards from the line . 

Guess thats one of the reasons I always trade out .
Report wildmanfromborneo September 4, 2014 9:35 PM BST
I kind of knew I was out of my depth just not aware by how much.

Thanks for the civility of your replies.

Now if you want a decent laugh I am making my first venture into my account to hunt down this portal.
Report Tolmi September 4, 2014 9:38 PM BST
These things even out normally but we tend to remember the perceived injustices that befall us.I often partially trade out of winning positions myself even though my records show it costs me money.I find it helps keep me in the state of mental equilibrium I find necessary to make correct decisions.
Report pa lapsy September 4, 2014 9:42 PM BST
Be logged into your BF account.
Bring up a new(home) page
Type in all dem letters, dots, strokes, correctly in that link earlier. 
save it then in "your favourites(an oxymoron?)
Report Tolmi September 4, 2014 9:43 PM BST
The portal link pa has shown is the address that you need to copy into the address bar while you are logged in.It will give you your lifetime profit,commission generated and premium charge paid.
If it doesn't give you this your account is either loss making or the % commission generated renders it unlikely to be liable to premium charge in the near future.
Report Kelly September 4, 2014 9:43 PM BST
Mind you dont hit any wrong buttons wildman , we all get to screw up procedures and sign up for crap without knowing it ( thats a general comment , not specifically applied to Betfair or betting  ) .

I have a rogue floating about at present , easy enough to kill it each time , but it popped up about 2 weeks ago when I logged onto Betfair , and I thought it was one of their promotions . Advertising crap essentially  , not from Betfair though , presumably just some "interceptor" which came from ae-mail , likely .

Got an e-mail from a friend recently , allegedly from Turkey , robbed , police inactive , pending flight , please help . Rang him , sitting at home in Rory land . Probably traces back to Nigeria if you investigated .
Report wildmanfromborneo September 4, 2014 9:45 PM BST
I think I located the portal

There is  a percentage figure in the top column,roughly what should that be.

The next is a figure that is nothing to do with my balance.

The last column is something about Betfair holidays,no idea what that's about.
Report dj876 September 4, 2014 9:47 PM BST
It is impossible to quantify the psychological impact of trading out versus not but one has to realise that a compulsory trading out policy drastically reduces ones edge (horrible buzz word but has to be used). It varies on different sports depending on the volatility of that market and the dangers of courtsiding but it is very possible to only trade with a profitable position after developing an opening platform (eg Tennis).

One should really only trade out where the bet/position has become underpriced or perhaps even priced correctly,after all you're withdrawing capital to reinvest but I understand that probably the most difficult elements are the intangibles.
Report pa lapsy September 4, 2014 9:48 PM BST
No, should have 2 "halves", one with lifetime profile at top,the other side headed by "last week"
Report wildmanfromborneo September 4, 2014 9:49 PM BST
Jings just as I was beginning to warm to you.
Report dj876 September 4, 2014 9:58 PM BST
I thought you would concur with my views against a compulsory trading out policy.
Report Tolmi September 4, 2014 9:59 PM BST
You are in the my account section not the portal.
Report pa lapsy September 4, 2014 10:06 PM BST
You have to "google" it through a new page wildman,it is not on the site as such, but will come up on your seperate page.
Report wildmanfromborneo September 4, 2014 10:27 PM BST
I am only skitting you DJ but I think your contempt has been vindicated.
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