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loligo forbesi
23 Jun 14 10:14
Date Joined: 25 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 1,097 | Blogger: loligo forbesi's blog
... that you get to see who's been swimming with no clothes on, as they say. And unfortunately, when you're standing there with the tide lapping about your ankles and you take a look around, you won't be looking at Gisele Bundchen or Sofia Vergara. No. What you'll see is a bunch of lads like myself - the wrong side of forty and carrying a liitle bit of condition and displaying the after-effects of "shrinkage" (women know about shrinkage, don't they??!!!).

Yes. We're heading in to the final round of group games. And this is where we'll sort the men from the boys - the lads who won't dip their toe in the ocean without a wetsuit from the hard chaws who look forward to a bit of North Atlantic skinny-dipping. So do you bet on the narrative? Or on a team's true level of ability and their underlying form? Will you risk backing the likes of Mexico or Holland or Italy to win when they only need a draw? Surely you'd be mad to put any money on England or Spain when their minds are already on their summer holidays? And Cameroon and Honduras have just been brutal and have nothing to play for anyway? Good luck with trying to pick a bet and make a profit this week!

After all of that build-up it doesn't look like I'll be having any bets today myself. Not unless Cameroon drift to 80.0. Or money comes against Holland or Mexico and their odds end up greater than 3.0.

It's hard to believe that we're half way through the tournament already - 32 games played, 32 to go - and after the second round of group games I'm now a little bit in profit. Five winning bets out of twenty-one placed in the outright match markets for a profit of €18.70 at €10 level stakes (or a 8.9% return on the total amount staked). But I also had a losing asian handicap bet on the very first game so in reality I'm barely treading water. For comparison, by my reckoning, if you'd simply backed the outsider with €10 stakes at BF SP in each of the 32 games so far, you'd have €48.90 in profits (roi 15.28%).

For my own information I have also kept track of how I would have done if I'd backed my selections in the asian handicap market, taking odds of 2.0 or higher, and that would have given me a profit of €39.03 (roi 18.58%). But I have a hunch (and I'd like to be corrected if there are any probability experts out there) that if you did have a method of calculating odds that gave you an edge which persisted over hundreds of matches that it wouldn't make a difference whether you backed at longer or shorter odds on the outright market or at around about evens on the a/h, that your profits would end trend towards the same level either way. As I say that's just a hunch and I'd be interested to know for sure.

Good luck!
Pause Switch to Standard View It's only when the tide goes out ...
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Report loligo forbesi June 30, 2014 4:38 PM BST
Only 55%?

That must mean it's time to start backing the teams who go second from now on - long term averages and all that. Free money. No? ;-)
Report Ozymandius June 30, 2014 4:41 PM BST
Think I am right in saying the last 9 in major tournaments have gone to the team going first....that is quite a run...not a huge sample size but would suggest the advanatge is greater than major tournaments of late anyway.
Report Ozymandius June 30, 2014 4:43 PM BST
France should be fine, Algeria might contain the Germans till the break.
Report pa lapsy June 30, 2014 4:51 PM BST
Haha doubt it Loligo, think there would be a slight advantage with going first alright though,but surely who takes them is the biggest factor.
Just a little short for me Callit,would have done it if evens,hard to watch with no interest but don,t fancy both strongly enough.
Heartache in US golf last night,nice greens on Stefani,Hoffmann,Martin, Rose was only one to banjaxx that, and despite going in water at last holed longish putts on 17 and 18 to force playoff,that and really should have done the greeks for a draw,typical lately.
Fighting chance with the DB Callit as i,ve left it go,GL with it.
Report Ozymandius June 30, 2014 5:24 PM BST
good game this.
Report pa lapsy June 30, 2014 5:30 PM BST
Tisn,t bad at all,residents of around Shandon St. all of a dodah at the moment.
Report Ozymandius June 30, 2014 5:34 PM BST
Giroud a complete imposter at this mobility, embarrassing at times.
Report callitasucit June 30, 2014 5:40 PM BST
Debuchy should have done better....need to be getting Benzema on the end of those.
Report callitasucit June 30, 2014 5:49 PM BST
Giroud should have left that.......stretching, there was a boy waiting to tap it home behind him.
Report Ozymandius June 30, 2014 6:19 PM BST
Thank the Lord, Giroud off, Vive la France!
Report pa lapsy June 30, 2014 6:29 PM BST
Unreal,really should have this wrapped up. good chances 1st half, and easier to score than to miss there.
Report Ozymandius June 30, 2014 6:34 PM BST
'kin hell
Report Ozymandius June 30, 2014 6:36 PM BST
Have it!
Report DeargDubh June 30, 2014 10:16 PM BST
Callit/Oz,re the penos,

Perhaps someone will correct me but I calculate there is less than a 1% probability of 9 occurrences of the team going first winnning (out of 9 matches) at a 55% probability?

I'm not questioning your figure Callit just pointing out that statistically it's unlikely.
Report Ozymandius June 30, 2014 10:45 PM BST
Dj is the only one on here who can do sums, the rest of us just excel at slagging each other off.

Would it be .55 to the power of 9 or 0.46%?
Report loligo forbesi June 30, 2014 11:07 PM BST
I did some bad maths also and tried to work it out from the opposite direction (ie that there's a 45% chance of them failing to win each time) and ended up with the same >1% probability. What are the chances that the three of us could be wrong?!
Report dj876 June 30, 2014 11:32 PM BST
.46% is correct about the probability of 9 consecutive 55% chances occurring but I don't really understand what ye are debating.

A sample size of 9 is an extremely limited sample size and and any type of extrapolation or attaching statistical significance to sch a sample size is spurious.It is also dependent on what filters are applied.You would not apply any significance to a sequence like this  as it is merely a short term sequence of results but Callit's 5% edge is probably based on a sample size of thousands so is relevant.
Report Ozymandius June 30, 2014 11:42 PM BST
We've acknowledged the sample size is small.

It's an interesting sequence though, given that a) it is recent and b)directly relevant, i.e major tournament football.
Report dj876 June 30, 2014 11:50 PM BST
The 5% over a sample size of thousands is relevant,in my opinion attaching weight to a short term sequence like this is the equivalent of a punter being influenced by a run of previous favourites winning and believing that it has an influence on the next event.
Report Ozymandius June 30, 2014 11:57 PM BST
I know what you are saying but I would personally attach more weight to it than perhaps it is entitled to statitsically i.e 5%

Its fair to say there is more pressure than ever in penalty taking and nowhere greater than at the major tournaments.  The sample of thousands would reflect all kids of Mickey Mouse competitions and data from a long time ago.  The sample size may be very small but it is recent and directly relevant and therefore may better reflect any relevant emerging trends, for whatever reasons.
Report dj876 July 1, 2014 12:13 AM BST
Fair enough you're entitled to your opinion but I think 5% is more than enough to be attaching it and would focus more on the merit of each individual event,not sure a penalty shootout will ever be a betting opportunity that I will pursue anyway.

Narrowing and filtering samples can often reveal interesting results but as applies to technical traders(chartists),the results are vulnerable to extrapolation and recency bias and mean reversion is never far away.
Report callitasucit July 1, 2014 1:06 AM BST
Its an interesting sequence alright Oz, but nothing more than that. Those betting on it, are betting on coincidence rather than anything more concrete. The 55% is proven over time, and the move in the Costa Rica price last night mirrored it.

Obviously when England go first he market should pay no heed!!
Report Ozymandius July 1, 2014 9:33 AM BST
The fact that there is a 5% bias is indeed proven over time.  The recent sequence suggests that perhaps the factors that led to that 5% bias in the first place have become more pronounced in recent times in major tournaments.
Report wildmanfromborneo July 1, 2014 9:41 AM BST
Has a team ever elected to go second in a penalty shoot out,doubt it.

The person serving first in a final set in tennis has a huge edge so much so it isint unknown for a player to effectively concede a fourth set to make sure they were serving first in the final set.
Report Ozymandius July 1, 2014 10:04 AM BST
The following article claims that the "Statistics show that the team kicking first has a 60% chance of winning the shoot out."
Report Ozymandius July 1, 2014 10:07 AM BST
Interesting stuff here;

“Jordet, G., Hartman, E., Visscher, C. and Lemmink, K. A. P. M. (2006) Kicks from the penalty mark in soccer: The roles of stress, skill, and fatigue for kick outcomes. Journal of Sports Sciences, 1-9, Preview article.

This paper is an essential starting place for an analysis for the impact of penalty shoot-outs in competitive international football as it reports some empirical findings on events in penalty shoot-outs in the World Cup (WC), European Championships (EC) and the Copa America (CA). The results are fascinating; here is a glimpse. The percentage success rate in the World Cup is 71.2% compared to 82.7% (CA) and 84.6% (EC), possibly reflecting the greater importance and consequent pressure of the world stage. The success rate of each penalty kick changes throughout the competition:

    First kick 86.6%

    Second kick 81.7%

    Third kick 79.3%

    Fourth kick 72.5%

    Fifth kick 80%

    ‘Sudden death’ kicks 64.3%

These results highlight the increasing pressure as the competition progresses and may also highlight the ‘best player should go first’ fallacy. The idea of ‘getting off to a good start’ by putting the best penalty taker first appears wrong as there is least pressure on this kick.

The researchers looked at the percentage success rate of players of different positions. Attackers successfully convert 83.1% of their penalties, midfield players convert 79.6% and defenders convert 73.6%.

The length of time the players have been on the pitch is also important. If they have played 30 minutes of less, their success rate is 86.7%, although, of course, this might include the occasional substitution to put a good penalty taker on the pitch. Players who have played between 31 and 90 minutes successfully convert 81.9% of penalties, and players who play longer than 91 minutes, convert 80% of their chances.

Age also seems important with younger players doing better. Players aged 22 or younger successfully convert 85.2% of attempts. Those aged between 23 and 28 convert 77.6%, and those aged over 29 years convert 78.1%.

The researchers conclude their paper by stating that their results demonstrate that the results of the penalty shoot-outs are not a lottery. Their results demonstrate that there are marked and logical patterns that repeat themselves time and again. The authors adopt a psychological stance on their results and they suggest that stress and anxiety may be important explanatory factors.”

A summary of research on the subject can be found here:
Report Ozymandius July 1, 2014 10:13 AM BST
Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, from LSE's Department of Management, and his co-author Jose Apesteguia, associate professor at Pompeu Fabra University, studied 2,820 penalty kicks from penalty shoot-outs from the major national and international competitions between 1970 – 2008. They found that the team that takes the first kick wins 60 per cent of the time and the team that takes the second 40 per cent of the time.

'The coin gives a 20 per cent advantage to the team that shoots first. The psychological pressure of "lagging behind" clearly affects the performance of the team that kicks second.'

Palacios-Huerta and Apesteguia studied films of the penalty coin toss in 20 matches. In every case, except one, the winner of the toss chose to take the first penalty. The exception was Italy-Spain in the European Cup –  Italy won the coin toss but chose Spain to kick first and Spain won the penalty shoot out.

In order to reduce the psychological impact of the kicking order, Professor Palacios-Huerta suggests a solution that mirrors what happens in a tie break in a tennis match. Here the first player (A) takes the first serve, then the second player (B) serves twice, then the first player serves twice, then player B serves twice again and so on. In a football penalty shoot out this pattern would repeat until the ten penalties had been taken or the penalty shoot out has been won.

The pattern looks like: ABBAABBAAB, and so on

Professor Palacios-Huerta said: 'This pattern of penalty taking would greatly reduce the unfair "first mover" advantage since the second team is not always trying to play "catch up" and the problem of leading or lagging would  be compensated for. Not only  would it be more fair, but it would  also be much more entertaining for neutral fans'
Report reb July 1, 2014 10:50 AM BST
Kevin Pullein has covered a lot of the above on page 83 of the Racing Post's World Cup Guide.
Report loligo forbesi July 1, 2014 4:46 PM BST
Now I don't know what to do if there are penalties in today's matches???

But hopefully they won't go that far - my money is on the Swiss and the Yanks to win in normal time.
Report CheltenhamRoar July 1, 2014 4:56 PM BST
Swiss look a great price to me,And also think The Yanks will beat the over-rated Belgians.
Report pa lapsy July 1, 2014 4:56 PM BST
WD with the Germans Loligo,with the Yanks as well,doubts with the Belgian backs and another couple out and not a bit impressive against the Koreans thought 4.6 was a fair price.
Did a small bet on the Swiss outright and to reach the final after their first group match,going to leave it at that for this match and only hoping.GL.
Report loligo forbesi July 1, 2014 5:33 PM BST
So far so good with the Swiss. But my suspicion is that it could stay 0-0 til late in the game and then a little bit of Argentinian (ie Messi) class will sneak them the win.
Report pa lapsy July 1, 2014 5:41 PM BST
Me granny could have done better than Drmic there,desperate attempt.Swiss doing a good job of frustrating them up to now.
Report Ozymandius July 1, 2014 7:01 PM BST
If this goes to peno's all I can say is, I hope to feck The Argies win the coin toss.
Report pa lapsy July 1, 2014 11:36 PM BST
What a brilliant ET,hard lines to the US,outclassed but fought very well,deserved the penos in the end.
Report CheltenhamRoar July 1, 2014 11:47 PM BST
Excellent game,particularly ET,But Belgium deserved it overall,The bashed them,On another night Belgium would have scored 6.
All 8 Group winners advance to the Quarter finals.
Report Ozymandius July 2, 2014 9:30 AM BST
brilliant ET..the tournament that keeps on giving!
Report CheltenhamRoar July 2, 2014 9:42 AM BST
Who's your fancy to win it now oz?
i fancy Colombia at the odds,Arguably the beat and most consistent side so far,
Wont be easy to get past the hosts but that's factored into their price,
C'mon Colombia Cool
Report CheltenhamRoar July 2, 2014 9:43 AM BST
Report Ozymandius July 2, 2014 1:53 PM BST
I haven't wavered CR, Brasil all the way.

For me they are the only team with the potential of an extra gear.  Granted we haven't seen it yet this tournament but we at least we know it is there. Personally I have never really seen an Argentinian team with Messi in it excel as a team.

Brasil match up better with Columbia than they did with Chile.  In fact Chile were the team most Brazilians worried abut most pre-tournament.  Brasil have the hex over Columbia (its like England vs Germany, Germany expect to win an invariably do)  Columbia have looked great, but haven't been tested defensively.  I think the penalty shoot out experience will serve Brasil well ad they may loosen up a little.

I think the Dutch might suffer because of Robben's 'honesty' about diving, even though what he actually said was completely reasonable.  Germany hugely vulnerable with such a high line and the slow Mertersacker.  I don't really believe in France as yet.

Onwards and upwards.
Report pa lapsy July 4, 2014 9:59 AM BST
With the outright looks a hard call,could well be down to a moments luck at this stage,agree with earlier posts certainly there is no outstanding team.
With the spate of draws and the lack of goals in the last few matches probably wise to be cautious with bets for the remainder,in the theme of the op think France could be the best of the "outsiders" in the weekends QF matches.The Dutch should surely beat Costa Rica and look the banker of the favs(yep, priced accordingly). Dutch/Arg and Dutch/Brazil wil be my bets for the 2 days and a small treb the 3. Looking forward to the football this evening,gl with your picks.
Report Ozymandius July 4, 2014 10:05 AM BST
Ho many draws in the four games?  At least 2 imo.
Report pa lapsy July 4, 2014 10:15 AM BST
Maybe,don,t know what it is,maybe it seems to be teams playing not to lose rather than trying to win based on the last few games or maybe these similar games coincidently just all arrived together or more likely all the teams that got through are a fairly equal standard,i don,t know, be nice to see a few goals in any case.
Report Ozymandius July 4, 2014 10:26 AM BST
the comfort blanket of extra time always seems to lead to teams not being too gugn ho.
Report loligo forbesi July 4, 2014 2:07 PM BST
I have come to a similar conclusion after the last round of knock-out matches, Oz. I had no success backing the outsiders to win but would have had a small profit backing them with a start on the asian handicaps. As you suggest, if the stronger teams knew they had to win in 90 mins then I suspect they'd make a stronger effort to go out and get the job done (although to be fair to Belgium, that is what they tried to do).

So, at the odds currently on offer, I won't be having any bets in the quarters (but I do make Germany and Brazil to be a little long and the Dutch a little short but not so  much as to be able to back or lay any of them).

For the record, I'm now €16.07 in deficit off of 33x€10 bets which I make to be a 4.87% loss - how much am I paying Betfair again?!!!
But the a/h bets would be €46.01 in profit (+13.94%, even after paying BF). It's a pity I'll have to wait another four years to implement that betting strategy!
Report callitasucit July 4, 2014 2:20 PM BST
Have backed France at 2.26 to qualify, laid Brazil for 90 mins at 1.8, and backed Colombia to qualify at 3.25. Small top up on Colombia outright to make them as profitable as an Argentina win.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y July 4, 2014 5:49 PM BST
France have been utterly pathetic

Benzema is a disaster, bloody heck i would consider replacing him with Giroud he has been that bad and his lack of effort for most of that half was shocking, this is a world cup 1/4 final ffs
Report workrider July 4, 2014 6:13 PM BST
Yes Premier , hes to easy going for my liking , even though I've backed him to be leading goal scorer...
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y July 4, 2014 7:02 PM BST
that was the most pathetic performance i have ever seen, did they think there was a 2nd leg, wildman has the French down to a tee Laugh
Report slickster July 4, 2014 7:05 PM BST
Great sense wonks Grin
Report workrider July 4, 2014 7:09 PM BST
Thick , sense and you , now there's a puzzle Wildmanfromborneo would be proud of...Laugh
Report Ozymandius July 4, 2014 8:33 PM BST
Brazil being hammered into.

Am confident they will win, didn't think the market would be.

Maicon Sad
Report Ozymandius July 4, 2014 10:31 PM BST
Let's get that Samaba party started Cool

Report Ozymandius July 5, 2014 8:08 AM BST
Neymar out for WC
Silva to miss Semi
Brasil looking over emotional and unable to 'control' a game.

Things looking more promising for the reliable Germans.
Report callitasucit July 5, 2014 4:45 PM BST
Been an expensive WC for me so far, but my faith in Argentina remains undimmed. Have backed them for match, and small bit more on the outright. Belgium will be a bit more adventurous than the Swiss, and Messi will enjoy the extra space and freedom in which to weave his magic. I still don't rate Belgium too highly, they have faced nothing better the USA so far, this will be a huge step up.

Also had small few quid on 3-1 & 4-1. Bring it on, it's gonna get Messsssssiiiiiiiii!!
Report callitasucit July 5, 2014 8:25 PM BST
I don't think much of Costa Rica, but equally, I am far from convinced about the Dutch. Considering the cautious approach the Dutch had in the Mexican game, this could be a very slow burner. Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 looks money for jam. Have also had small lay of the Dutch at 1.55.

0-0 could be a serious runner.

No nil nils in Semple, cracking game.
Report callitasucit July 5, 2014 10:52 PM BST
How did that not go in!!
Report Ozymandius July 5, 2014 11:35 PM BST
what larks!  These extra times are something else!
Report Ozymandius July 5, 2014 11:36 PM BST
'I am Van Gaal' going to look a genius or a kn0bber here!
Report callitasucit July 5, 2014 11:37 PM BST
Costa v big at 2.18. Hit cracking penalties against the Greeks, and have the player of the tournament so far between the posts.
Report Ozymandius July 5, 2014 11:38 PM BST
Yup.  CR win toss!
Report Ozymandius July 5, 2014 11:39 PM BST
and the market does not react!
Report callitasucit July 5, 2014 11:40 PM BST
Delayed reaction, they were out to 2.24. 2.14 now.
Report Ozymandius July 5, 2014 11:41 PM BST
geez CR 1.99 after scoring one!
Report Ozymandius July 5, 2014 11:47 PM BST
'I am Van Gaal'...the thinking man's Mourinho Cool
Report callitasucit July 5, 2014 11:47 PM BST
It looks a good decision now!!
Report callitasucit July 5, 2014 11:49 PM BST
Every cloud has a silver lining,........the thick cu*ts that think Utd(and the premiership in general) are any better than useless will be over betting after that!!
Report Ozymandius July 5, 2014 11:59 PM BST
I've lost count of the number of titles Utd have won in recent times with a fairly useless team and a top man in charge!
Report callitasucit July 6, 2014 12:04 AM BST
Ha! But not this useless, and one substitution doesn't make him Fergie!

Over and out....too much drink, and not enough hours left before work!!

Cabrera at 6.6 tomorrow....
Report reb July 6, 2014 11:31 AM BST
Breaking News : Refereeinho is to replace Neymar in Brazil's remaining World Cup matches.
Report Ozymandius July 6, 2014 11:42 AM BST
the irony there is despite all the hullaballoo about UEFA conspiracies, it was the Spanish Refs inability to control the game that has severely dented Brasil's hopes.
Report reb July 6, 2014 11:52 AM BST
I'd say "unwillingness" rather than "inability".
Report Ozymandius July 6, 2014 11:57 AM BST
at whose behest?
Report reb July 6, 2014 12:25 PM BST
FIFA, due to their failure to  clamp down on persistent fouling throughout this World Cup.

I actually think the damage to Brazil's chances of outright victory has currently been exaggerated by the market. Following the victory over Colombia, Brazil were trading at about 3.1. Overnight, and following the revelation that Neymar was out for the rest of the WC, the price drifted to 3.8 (now 3.95). In a way, his absence will take some of the pressure off his team mates due to a lowering of expectations by the Brazilian public. I also think he's overrated.  How Scolari rejigs the team now will be crucial to  Brazil's future;  I'm sure he will be hoping for a favourable performance from Refereeinho
Report Ozymandius July 6, 2014 12:39 PM BST
Why do FIFA wish to fail to clamp down on persistent fouling?  Who benefits and why do FIFA wish to see this beneficiary benefit?  That's how conpiracies work isn't it?

And as for Referinho...whose to say that the wealthy Germans haven't Got to Sepp?  After all the alleged need for Brazil to qualify to quell social unrest no longer exists and the alleged need to keep them in to make it a successful tournament no longer exists either.
Report Ozymandius July 6, 2014 12:42 PM BST
If anything, since Game 1, referees have gone out of their way not to give Brasil anything (as far as I can remember) by way of compensation for the errors of Game 1 and the allegations that followed..
Report CheltenhamRoar July 6, 2014 12:45 PM BST
Correct ozy,I hope Brazil go on and win it now more than ever!
Report reb July 6, 2014 1:02 PM BST
Blatter is Swiss.
Report Ozymandius July 6, 2014 1:03 PM BST
Report Ozymandius July 6, 2014 1:05 PM BST
He is.  What's the relevance?
Report callitasucit July 8, 2014 8:06 PM BST
I have been against both Brazil and Geramny so far, but Brazil have been by far the luckier in quite a few games, and without both their talisman and captain tonight I cant for the life of me see how they are favourite to qualify.

The pressure on them will be huge, and they have no one on the field to supply that magic they will need to get through.

The Germans haven't been flawless themselves, but they appear to have less baggage, more talent, less expectation, and more match winners on the field.

I would make Germany 8-11 and have backed accordingly.
Report huddys July 8, 2014 9:36 PM BST
Well done Callitasucit,
Report callitasucit July 8, 2014 9:39 PM BST
Brazils only hope now is to try get the Croke Park Residents Association to try and get the 5 goals cancelled.
Report neill d July 8, 2014 9:45 PM BST
You get the sense that this will be talked about 50 or 60 years from now. Definitely the most memorable game of the tournament will be Germany v Brazil. I wonder will many of these lads wear the yellow shirt again.
Report callitasucit July 8, 2014 9:51 PM BST
Looking at Brazils defending today, Thiago Silva should be awarded the Golden Ball!!
Report reb July 8, 2014 10:39 PM BST
Brazilians not wearing swimming trunks.
Report callitasucit July 13, 2014 11:18 AM BST
2.42 on Argentina is fuc*in massive.

If they played in the semi finals the Argies would have been a shade of fav to qualify. What has changed??

Well, Di Maria is likely to be back, and Agueiro likely to be closer to peak fitness. So why the massive price?

Because Germany destroyed a hapless Brazil outfit(which the Dutch also managed), with most of the damage done in a 6 minute spell. Germany had flaws before that game, and they havent gone away. Argentina have the scope to be a lot better, and will love the way the Germans will set out to attack. I am not saying Argentina are certs, far from it, but i would have them as the most likely victors, and cant resist topping up one last time!!
Report Ozymandius July 13, 2014 11:24 AM BST
its your own funeral Grin
Report callitasucit July 13, 2014 12:55 PM BST
Ha Ha!!
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y July 13, 2014 12:58 PM BST
Di Maria back CryCry he has been fkin cack all tournament

do agree though Argentina are too big and Germany have looked pretty ordinary in this tournament too if you ignore the Brazil game
Report frank60 July 13, 2014 1:28 PM BST
World cup finals with one or two Exceptions dont stay long in the memory and this one most likely is will fall in this category;   Argintina will see to that, Germany should win but like the last final the ref is going to have a busy time with a few Oscars Performances throw in  ., what the game needs is an early germany goal so argintina will have to open up there game, ..i would like to be wrong but somehow i dought it...
Report workrider July 13, 2014 2:28 PM BST
Have backed Argentina myself and expect them to give Germany a very tough game , can see them peeking at the right moment , the Germans might be a little overconfident after that Brazilian result ...Looking forward to Lionel showing his magic ...The Germans are worthy favs , but there is always a chance this has come a few years to early for these players ..Anyway lets enjoy the biggest and best spectacle the world has to offer...
Report frank60 July 13, 2014 3:04 PM BST
I hope you right about the best spectacle bit w/r,
Report workrider July 13, 2014 3:07 PM BST
So do I Frank , sad to see the death of a legend during the week , never saw him play , but the world and his wife were of the opinion that he was one of the greatest ..R.I.P...
Report frank60 July 13, 2014 3:14 PM BST
Alfredo Di Stéfano (Football's Greatest)   youtube,   in black and white    w/r
Report kingrat July 13, 2014 10:36 PM BST
Report callitasucit July 14, 2014 3:34 AM BST
Ozy, I expect you to concur that i was correct  about the betting??

RR wont understand, but Argies were the deserved winners, tis just a shame the finishing touches werent added to some beautiful movements.

I may have lost my bollix....but i have saved my soul!!
Report Ozymandius July 14, 2014 8:47 AM BST
This is a results business, callit Wink  Not even Borneo could derail the German train.

No one suggested it would be easy and Argentina played well.  And the Argies had perhaps the more clearcut chances.  But Germany created more chances, bossed and controlled the game, were physically stronger as the game went on, and in my opinion were overall the better side and fully deserved to win.

Statistically; Germany had 64% possesion, 5 shots on target versus 0, more corners, more offsides, more blocked shots.

I'd be happy enough to take 8/11 ish if they replayed the game tonight.
Report Ozymandius July 14, 2014 8:52 AM BST
But of course your soul is still intact!  Had I backed the Argies, I might have seen it differently last night!
Report Tolmi July 14, 2014 11:55 AM BST
I must admit I can't see how the betting was wrong.I thought the Germans were the better side and thoroughly deserved the victory.They do have a lack of pace at the back and it was inevitable that there would be a few chances created against them.If the match were played again tomorrow I think the betting would be much the same.It is worth remembering that the shots on target column for Argentina reads a big fat 0.
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