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dinglemick
04 Feb 14 22:24
Joined:
Date Joined: 30 Oct 06
| Topic/replies: 5,332 | Blogger: dinglemick's blog
Two horses at decent each way prices sticking out to me ....Hopefully they both run ...Does anyone know ?? .....Quickpick Vic 12/1 spoils  for the Deloitte and Tammys Hill 9/1 powers in the Raymond Smith ...

Quickpic Vic visually looked very good the last day at Leopardstown in a very quick time for heavy ground ..Form does nt look up to Tullow Tank and Vatour but i still think he looked above average the last day and at the price of 12/1 see him going off half that if he runs ...

Tammys Hill i would imagine will defo run ...second last year just touched off by Salsify by a neck ...Might have just needed it t Down Royal on Stephens day when second ....Quel Esprit might not run , by all accounts he didn t look great in his gallop at Punch Sunday ....On the fringe looks short at 6/4 .... 9 s looks very generous on Tammys , again i see him going off a lot shorter
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Report neill d February 4, 2014 10:30 PM GMT
I have a fancy for Smashing in the Betfair on Saturday at Newbury. Big step up from Limerick but watch the way he jumped the last few flights in that race...there was loads left. Will have to be a bit more efficient at his obstacles here but he'll handle the ground and it is significant he travels even if Mullins is sending more over these days. He could be top-class over fences next season I sense, but with Cheltenham possibly not on the agenda with the trainer having so many options, this may have been the plan for a while.
Report dinglemick February 4, 2014 10:35 PM GMT
I can t get away from Irish Saint Neil 6/1 ...... Can see a big plunge on this fella before Saturday ...Only 5lb higher at 145 after his absolute romp at Ascot the last day
Report neill d February 4, 2014 10:57 PM GMT
I wouldn't put you off him, won very easily last time although I saw a few on the AP forum saying things fell nicely enough for him and he was the only one that stayed going. I wouldn't necessarily subscribe to that as I thought on his juvenile stuff he'd run well in these kinds of races and he has done now.  They are Bigging up the Henderson horse who ties in with your fella, based on what he is doing at home but he'd want to be some horse off top weight in that ground. He seems a mercurial kind of fella and he might not appreciate what he will encounter on Saturday.
Report Bigwillystyle February 4, 2014 11:26 PM GMT
Quick pick Vic has no chance. I backed him last time. He is one of those horses who looks great bossing an ordinary field but will not do it this weekend. A place lay of biblical proportions. Anytime he has stepped up in grade he has disappointed
Report callitasucit February 5, 2014 12:47 AM GMT
I would be surprised and disappointed if The Tullow Tank doesn't win, and win well on Sunday. Promises to be an intriguing card, even if the feature will lack any real class. Does Salsify not run in the Hunters?
Report stevo1 February 5, 2014 1:11 AM GMT
salsify knocked joint out.
Report pa lapsy February 5, 2014 12:05 PM GMT
Did my first ante post for ages Dingle(very small), Did Vivega for the champion bumper in March,though unraced the Ricci owned 5yo was i,m 90% sure the horse described by WPM before Sundays Punchestown gallop as a very nice horse,most probably needed a bit of a blow but still think he did that gallop well against Quevega. Mullins has a strong hand already with Shaneshill and Black Hercules but wondering is he following a similar path with Briar Hill last year(one run before), hope it is on ,a cracking card.
Agree Irish Saint was so impressive last time, you have to wonder can he repeat that run,at a price thought Deep Trouble was an ew, has his own ideas but should run well,nothing on the lay side on here so will wait till the decs.GL
Report dj876 February 5, 2014 12:29 PM GMT
7/4 and 13/8 could look generous on TTT come Sunday without Faugheen running.I suppose it depends on how many Mullins runs but you would think TTT would be in and around evens at best with the race probably cutting up to 4/5 runners.
Report penzance February 5, 2014 12:32 PM GMT
big fan of Last Instalment,backed him
for the Hennesy on here but nothing on
the lay side.Took a chance that he runs,
my Gold Cup horse.
Anyone know if he's a definate runner the
weekend?
cheers.
Report callitasucit February 5, 2014 12:34 PM GMT
Backed him at 7-4 myself dj. Renneti is a horse I have huge respect for, compromised by setting fractions too fast at Punch, and then falling when cantering at Limerick. But according to Ricci they are taking the softly softly approach with him this year, so hardly likely to show. One for next year I feel.
Report dj876 February 5, 2014 12:38 PM GMT
He's an intended runner according to the below link penzance.
http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/racing/fenton-gives-instalment-leopardstown-green-light-1.1678038

Ya I thought he would be about evens Callit, if WPM runs Vautour and Valseur lido (Arctic fire won't go on the ground),what price do you think he will be?
Report penzance February 5, 2014 12:44 PM GMT
tx
Report callitasucit February 5, 2014 12:46 PM GMT
Couldn't see him going off much above evens. Form is rock solid, trip probably his ideal. And from an ante post point of view, he is more likely to line up than his main rivals all doing so. Have him backed for Supreme aswell, so hoping for a convincing win.
Report dj876 February 5, 2014 12:53 PM GMT
I would be very confident if he runs but I suppose you have to factor in the chances of Fenton not running him if it's bottomless (probable) and having such a slog 4/5 weeks before Cheltenham (even though he would go on it and has grade 1 winning form on soft ground)
Report penzance February 5, 2014 1:02 PM GMT
shame he got injured,by far the best
staying novice over in Ireland,just
my opinion though.Backed him for
the GC last year but did'nt make the
track.Top class this horse could turn
out if staying sound.
   GL ALL
Report callitasucit February 5, 2014 1:09 PM GMT
Penzance, I backed him 50s NRNB before his Clonmel run, so hoping he either wins or flops on Sunday!! His jumping as a novice was a sight to behold.
Yeah dj, I suppose the worry is there about the heavy ground forcing a withdrawal, but Leop never gets too bad, and Fenton seems committed to this route for awhile now, doubt he will jump ship. Dunguib chose the same route. Hoping for a different result in March though!!
Report penzance February 5, 2014 1:13 PM GMT
Ive backed him @50s n/r n/b with crookes.
Bigger on here aswell.Same as you,win or flop.
Like to see him in the GC just to see if he is
up to that grade.
Report tony57 February 5, 2014 2:30 PM GMT
im hoping newbury is on as the bumper is a cracker, THOMAS BROWN is a horse harry fry has always talked up..i backed it on debut and was a bit disappointed,..but he won nto and this has been the plan for a while..hes a trainer I rate and if this race will tell us how good a horse he is.
Report Ernie__Bert February 5, 2014 8:16 PM GMT
If anybody has any spare tickets for Sunday I will gratefully take them off their hands.. Hope it goes ahead with all the rain forecast. Love this day every year, I came away from it last year with Champagne Fever and stuck with him. A woman I work with done a tour of willie mulins last Autumn and came away with two horses Annie Power and Vivega who is entered in Sundays bumper. Its a brother the great Quevega and is supposed to be a very decent horse.
Report norn iron February 5, 2014 8:57 PM GMT
LYREEN LEGEND THINK GOT GREAT CHANCE IN GOLD CUP
Report malheureusement February 5, 2014 9:02 PM GMT
I am making my debut at Leopardstown on Sunday - coming over for the rugby on Saturday.  Any pointers to a decent bar at the track and good vantage point to watch the racing?
Report Ernie__Bert February 5, 2014 9:06 PM GMT
Theres a good bar on ground level in the passageway between the parade ring and the bookies , the name escapes me. Its near all the action. Enjoy yourselves.
Report huddys February 5, 2014 9:09 PM GMT
Hope you enjoy your trip over for the weekend,Fillies bar is one of the best at the track,great viewing from the main stands and with the big screen you wont miss any of the action,
Report huddys February 5, 2014 9:10 PM GMT
Think that Madigans your talking about Ernie,
Report malheureusement February 5, 2014 9:16 PM GMT
Thanks for the replies - we'll get there early on Sunday morning around 11am so will have plenty of time for a stroll about before racing. How far is the walk from the LUAS station to the track?
Report Ernie__Bert February 5, 2014 9:18 PM GMT
10 to 15 mins
Report huddys February 5, 2014 9:29 PM GMT
There will be a shuttle bus not sure if it will be running that early tho,might be,enjoy your trip
Report yorker789 February 5, 2014 10:16 PM GMT
Ive been over a few times for the Hennessy,first shuttle bus was an hour before first race as I remember but the walk up is no problem,always a great days racing.Wife is going to visit a relative in brookfield,tallaght while im at the races,anyone know what that area is like.
Report BigRob1 February 5, 2014 10:50 PM GMT
Its dodgy enough yorker.
Report callitasucit February 6, 2014 12:56 AM GMT
Plinth is a great bet at the current 7-2 for the juvenile hurdle. Quite how the oddsmakers have arrived at the huge discrepancy between the prices of Plinth and Ivan Grozny is beyond me.
I backed Ivan in their first meeting at Christmas, and after Plinth made what looked like a race losing mistake at the last, I was happy that the bet was landed. Ruby scooted 3 lengths clear out the back of the last, only for AP to galvanise Plinth, who to my eye, won a shade cosily for the winning distance.
Yes Ivan may have improved for that run. And Plinth wont? Ivan was strong enough in the market that day, to suggest he was ready enough. Plinths mistake at the last, when AP asked him for one to put the race to bed, suggested APOB had left him a bit short in the schooling department. That certainly wont be the case on Sunday.
Ivans next run got a huge overreaction imo. Indian Icon is useless, and may never win a race. I would make Plinth a slight fav on Sunday, and have backed accordingly.
Report silvergreaser February 6, 2014 10:41 AM GMT
Callit I can see your reasoning but you seem to have ignored what I think is the most crucial piece of form in the race, the 3rd horse Moss St has since been beaten in 2 mediocre contests, but crucially the 4th horse Sea Beat who was just over 2L's behind Plinth and Ivan was 16+L's behind Ivan the last day, that to me suggests we seen the real Ivan the last day which means Plinth would have to improve pounds to get near Ivan if that piece of form is taken literally.

Imo I think there might have been an element of fluke in Plinths victory and I would be in no hurry to oppose Ivan after hs impressive demolition the last day on very heavy ground which he will get on Sunday no doubt.

I can't see the 5/4 with Spoils lasting much longer, but Mullins also has 2 other entries is Ivan a definite starter?.
Report kingrat February 6, 2014 9:29 PM GMT
be careful with yre gargle money sil!i will be laying ivan .
Report wildmanfromborneo February 6, 2014 9:39 PM GMT
Does anyone have any idea which Willie Mullins horse takes on The Tullow Tank ?
Report paulie wallnuts February 6, 2014 9:50 PM GMT
without any up to the minute info Wildman.......id say vatour and valseur lido.....
Report wildmanfromborneo February 6, 2014 9:51 PM GMT
I'm not so sure about those two but would have gone all in on Faugheen to beat The Tullow Tank.
Report paulie wallnuts February 6, 2014 9:53 PM GMT
Callitascuit........a trap that people may fall into with these NH horses of Aiden O Briens......is assuming that he trains them......a very dangerous assumption.......
Report paulie wallnuts February 6, 2014 9:54 PM GMT
Faugheen is a million to run......that's definite......if ya want to oppose the tullow tank.......ya have plenty there to go on with.....
Report wildmanfromborneo February 6, 2014 9:55 PM GMT
Agree pretty sure Plinth is in Piltown.
Report callitasucit February 6, 2014 9:56 PM GMT
You think they down with Joe, Paulie? Quite possible. But I feel he definitely has as much scope for improvement from that run as Ivan. Granted Sea Beat fin a lot further behind Ivan last time, but the race at Leop was run at a crawl. There was a host in with a chance on the run to last. Off such a slow gallop, they can only put so far between them and the rest. Plinth would have won 3 lengths only for fluffing the last.
Report callitasucit February 6, 2014 9:57 PM GMT
APOB training it or not, wouldn't have been a huge factor in my thinking he is the bet at the prices. Joe can school them too!!
Report wildmanfromborneo February 6, 2014 10:03 PM GMT
All the bumper horses,all the jumpers are in Piltown.
Report paulie wallnuts February 6, 2014 10:03 PM GMT
fancy ivan grozny myself.....but I can see where ya are coming from.....I was on ivan in leopardstown and he seemed to finish very tamely......if plinth had jumped the last properly.....it would hav pisssed up.....but the ivan in naas bore no resemblance to the one in foxrock......it simply stormed up the hill......I myself and I could be wrong.....think it will win the triumph and is good value at 8/1 to do so......it doesn't look that deep a race to me......
Report callitasucit February 6, 2014 10:06 PM GMT
No, Triumph looks very poor,....at the moment. There may be one or two to come out yet. Personally like Le Rocher, and have backed it. Hard to see him not on the premises. Looks an ideal type for it. Sunday will tell more about Ivan. Cracking card, apart from the feature, sure to plenty of festival contenders and possibly winners on show.
Report wildmanfromborneo February 6, 2014 10:07 PM GMT
I didnt fancy Ivan Grozny at Naas because of the proximity of Moss Street and Sea Beat in that Leopardstown race but that was a different animal that won in Naas.
Think Ivan Grozny is a certainty in Leopardstown.
Report paulie wallnuts February 6, 2014 10:10 PM GMT
yes le rocher has  a big shout also......I agree.....but apart from him and whatever wins on sunday.....its hard to enthuse about the rest.....one things certain and that is.....that the winner of the triumph has run.....anything that hasn't run by now has no chance.....
Report paulie wallnuts February 6, 2014 10:12 PM GMT
hope ya are right Wildman......hes one of a few ante post plays ive done for the festival.....
Report callitasucit February 6, 2014 10:15 PM GMT
Nicky or King often have a late card play to play. Ground has been very soft for the flat types the last 6 weeks, maybe holding onto something. Guitar Pete being 16-1 probably says it all about the strength of the race.

Shame Thomas Hobson didn't appear, he could have been very exciting. Lovely looker.
Report wildmanfromborneo February 6, 2014 10:17 PM GMT
I don't know the English form at all.

There is something about The Tullow Tank I don't like,he has no chance in Cheltenham as he needs bottomless ground,he is an out an out stayer that takes an age to get going and his pilot seems to get him in trouble in his races,I will probably back Vauteur to beat him Sunday.
Report silvergreaser February 6, 2014 10:21 PM GMT
Do spoils know something we don't?, they have pushed out Ivan to 11/8 generally 1/1, joint best Plinth at 3/1, but they're noticeably shorter on another Mullins runner Gitane Du Berlais 7/2 a general 5/1 shot.
Report callitasucit February 6, 2014 10:22 PM GMT
Maybe Gitane might run if its bottomless?? More of a stayer.
Report paulie wallnuts February 6, 2014 10:22 PM GMT
As sure as ya have a whole in yer arrse......danny mullins will not win on the tullow tank at Cheltenham......or Our Conor either.....
Report callitasucit February 6, 2014 10:24 PM GMT
There is something about TTT that I do like!! Tough as nails, improving all the time, and I wouldn't be certain the ground will be a prob. It be good-soft at worst, maybe softer. He will fuc*in love that hill. The jock is the obvious problem, and a needless one at that. But I don't pay the bills.
Report paulie wallnuts February 6, 2014 10:28 PM GMT
Theres no doubt hes a good horse.....and a very tough one too....but ya could pick holes in his form..... real steel....turnandgo....renetti......king of the picts......none of them are any good.....
Report tony57 February 6, 2014 10:28 PM GMT
callitasucit,
king has some to run yet,but the one that may be his best is called SPRINGBOKS..
Report callitasucit February 6, 2014 10:32 PM GMT
I like Renneti Paulie. Shell of a horse at the moment, but I feel he could be very good over a fence next year. Would have won doing handstands down in Limerick at Xmas, but for tipping up.

Interesting Tony.
Report paulie wallnuts February 6, 2014 10:33 PM GMT
Tony.....please stop.....first of all king is no danger in any championship race at the festival most years.....and his horses have a virus this year.....and finally that horse you are on about is a bumper horse by flemensfirth.......alan king has a better chance of landing on the moon naked.....than winning the triumph hurdle with that.....
Report tony57 February 6, 2014 10:34 PM GMT
I think its running this weekend if newbury is on...been a lot of talk about his work at home..but we all know what that means..is owned by the kelven hughs firm..they had a nice winner with hendo today..im only going on whispers mate..
Report tony57 February 6, 2014 10:36 PM GMT
you may be right paulie..but king has a few too run..and that's all I was replying too..
Report paulie wallnuts February 6, 2014 10:36 PM GMT
I don't deny renetti is a useful horse callitascuit.....but beating mazuri cowboy and that yoke real steel would hardly be top form.....it was beaten fair and square by the tullow tank.....admittedly its a decent horse.....but I couldn't ever seeing it being top drawer.....but then again I could be wrong.....
Report workrider February 6, 2014 10:39 PM GMT
Hes a little too buzzy for my liking as well Callit , not sure he will progress as much as you think.....
Report paulie wallnuts February 6, 2014 10:40 PM GMT
Tony57....no disrespect....but we are discussing the triumph hurdle here.....and whether or not alan king has  bumper horses that are any good.....will have no bearing on the result of that race......
Report callitasucit February 6, 2014 11:25 PM GMT
No, not top form Paulie, but having backed him I was worried early doors. As WR says, he was pretty free, so to still be absolutely tanking two out in that ground, I reckon he is a fair beast. Beaten fair and square by TTT, but to me that is no crime, and he looks a stayer. He set the race up for the rest of them that day. Probably wasn't a whole lot in behind I will agree.

WR, I wouldn't be too worried. He hasn't had Rubys hands on him in a race yet. Expect a more restrained animal at the Punchestown festival.
Report roadrunner46 February 7, 2014 1:30 AM GMT
triumph hurdle le rocher for me at 10/1, dont know any of the other horses running, apart from BROUGHTON from the dark angel thread
well bred by teofilo is an outsider for the race.
Report Just So February 7, 2014 11:20 AM GMT
Paulie, with the greatest of respect, a lot of that is balls above. With the yard in decent health, King does as well as most with his juveniles (maybe to their future detriment in some cases, but that's another argument). And the Triumph is the one novice race where there can often be a late card played, particularly since it has become less of a roughhouse race (off the top of my head Soldatino and Zarkandar both made their English debuts in the Adonis at Kempton towards the end of Feb).
Report dj876 February 7, 2014 12:03 PM GMT
WPM just runs Vautour,Valseur lido and Renetti don't run.
Revised odds with the majority 11/10 TTT and 7/4 Vautour.
Except Racebets (German online crowd) who still go 6/4 and 3/1 because they still have Valseur lido priced.
8/15 with them on TTT and Vautour coupled,Quickpick Vic to beat basically.
Report dj876 February 7, 2014 12:17 PM GMT
Ballycasey versus Carlingford lough and Don Cossack in the Moriarty,Champagne Fever doesn't run.
Report tony57 February 7, 2014 12:19 PM GMT
don Cossack strong imo now cf is out!
Report workrider February 7, 2014 12:23 PM GMT
That will be a race worth going to see itself , lets hope mother nature relents and the weekends racing goes ahead , a smashing day here atm , sun splitting the skies...
Report silvergreaser February 7, 2014 12:29 PM GMT
Mullins other two pulled out of the juvenile as well.

Nice weather today workrider but plenty more rain forecast, but unlike England its takes almost monsoon type rainfall for the Irish to call off big meetings.
Report tony57 February 7, 2014 12:46 PM GMT
and for that silver im very grateful!Love
Report DECALEC February 7, 2014 2:15 PM GMT
workrider
07 Feb 14 12:23
Joined:
29 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 16,647 | Blogger: workrider's blog
That will be a race worth going to see itself , lets hope mother nature relents and the weekends racing goes ahead , a smashing day here atm , sun splitting the skies...FFS HOW OLD R U THE TREE'S MAN THE TREE'SGrinSillyLUCKY YE HAVE SUN ONLY GREY CLOUD'S HERE IN ULSTER OR THE NORTWink
Report callitasucit February 7, 2014 4:27 PM GMT
Small, but select fields. Hopefully the weather doesnt ruin it. They should avoid the worst of it. Happy with 7-2 on Plinth, and 7-4 TTT as things stand.
Report dj876 February 9, 2014 3:59 PM GMT
Wd Penzance,ended up a tasty price today.50/1 NRFB isn't bad now either for yourself and callit.
Report callitasucit February 9, 2014 4:00 PM GMT
Penzance......50s for GC looks nice now!! Hopefully the legs stand up after that, and he gets there in one piece.
Report penzance February 10, 2014 2:30 PM GMT
cracking run,
cheers.
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