Joburg/Pebble Beach Golf

Not as good fare as last week, with the European event especially poor. But there is still two winners to be found, and in that European event the lack of quality could serve to provide a few good bets, on players who should be (or should have been) a good bit shorter.

Charl Scwhartzel is a short priced jolly in Joburg, and as a Charl sceptic I am delighted he is so short, as he is taking a huge chunk out of the market, and hence inflating the prices of the couple of class players in behind him. Charl, like Rory last week, does not win often enough, or convert enough short priced opportunities to warrant backing at 4-1. Bookies cant really price him much bigger I suppose, as afraid of giving him the look of an e.w steal, given the significant lack of strength in depth.

Its that lack of strength in behind that leads me to stay at the head of the market this week. Its been a case of the earl bird catches the worm as regards the prices though, as bookies have slowly cottoned on to the real chances of the better players here.  I was hoping for 10-1 on George Coetzee, so when two bookies chalked up 14s, that had to be snapped up, as it was never going to last. George came here as a 15-2 shot last year, and after a very similar preparation this time, 14s was massive. Yes, he has yet to win, and I am crabbing a Masters winning favourite for not winning enough, but Coetzee looks ready to my eye, and will be a shock if he does not contend on Sunday. He has looked less jittery when in contention of late, and I expect him to convert a winning opportunity soon. On Sunday!! He is only 11-1 now, but I think that still underestimates his chance.

With Charl taking so much out of the  market, there is plenty of value in backing the two other local stars, Thomas Aiken and Richard Sterne. Like Coetzee, their prices have contracted slightly, but still offer value imo. Sterne absolutely hosed up in this last year, and will have had his eyes very firmly set on a repeat. He showed up well in a much better class event last week, notably hitting some superb approaches with his long irons, which will be off benefit around here on a track measuring over 7600 yards.

Aiken finished tied 5th Coetzee in Qatar, and is one of the few other players in this field that look like a potential winner. With his decent course form, he looks sure to be thereabouts, and as such the 13-8 on offer for top 20 also looks a steal. Certainly an odds on shot in my view.

Further down the list Daawie Van der Walt is certainly one of the most in form players. an in much better events than this. He has seemed to lack the fight or belief on Sundays, and that has downgraded his finishing positions. But if he keeps putting himself in these exalted early positions, it will become second natute, and one day soon, he will crack the Sunday part of it. In a field this week, the 100-1 SJ chalked up was an insult. I missed that myself, but the 66s was still far too big.

1.75pts e.w George Coetzee 14-1
1.1 pt e.w Richard Sterne 22-1
1pt e.w Thomas Aiken 25-1
.4pt e.w Daawie van der Walt 66-1
8pts Thomas Aiken Top 20 13-8


In the Pebble Beach event, it is again to the top of the market I head.  But again, not to the favourite. How Jason Day heads the market has me baffled. There are players who when playing badly can find ways to win. Day is the best in the world at finding ways to lose, even when at the top of his game. Always over bet, I never find reason to back him.

Phil Mickleson is an enigma. Its for this reason, as stated before, I prefer to back him off an apparent lack lustre performance. He was mediocre last week, but the fact he played all 4 days, suggests all is now well after his back problem. If Phil won last week, he would be about 13-2 this week. If Phil won last week, he would be no more likely to won this week than he is now. Yet he is double that price. What he does one week, has absolutely no bearing on what he will do the next. He is a proven winner, loves the course, how he is bigger than Jason Day is absurd.

Dustin Johnson, may be another who doesn't win as often as he should, but he does win, at least once a year since his debut on tour, and he knows his way around here with his eye closed. He will be primed for this event, a 5th in the Champions event showing him to be in good nick, and he could win this on the bridle.

Another shortish priced selection im afraid (but all over priced imo) is Jimmy Walker. Available at 28s, but I have gone with place over price, and taken the 25s 6 places with Powers. Walker has been top ten here the last 3 years, when he was neither as good a player, or as confident a player. Most importantly, he is  now a winner. I get the feeling he would be a good deal shorter, probably about 16s or 18s, if he didn't miss the cut on his latest outing. I have drawn a line through that, as he was out of his comfort zone playing in the circus atmosphere, which is a Tiger Woods 3 ball. The 6-4 on a top 20 is also very big.

Further down the list Aaron Baddelly at 100-1 and Spencer Levin at 80s also warranted support. Both have from around here that is superior to what they show on many other tracks, so the fact that both have shown improvement lately at venues where they are not so prolific, bodes well for prominent showings this week. The 4-1 on Baddely is also particularly appealing.

1.75pts e.w Phil Mickleson 14-1(6 places)
1.75 pts e.w Dusty Johnson 14-1
1pt e.w Jimmy Walker 25-1 (6places)
.25pt e.w Aaron Baddely 100-1
.3pt e.w Spencer Levin 80-1
8pts Jimmy Walker Top 20 6-4
4pts Aaron Baddely Top 20 4-1

John Mallinger and Greg Owen were two rags that appealed at 150s and 300s, and I may have a few quid on them on BF, nearer the off, when prices prob bigger in better market.