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callitasucit
04 Feb 14 14:16
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Date Joined: 27 Sep 11
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Not as good fare as last week, with the European event especially poor. But there is still two winners to be found, and in that European event the lack of quality could serve to provide a few good bets, on players who should be (or should have been) a good bit shorter.

Charl Scwhartzel is a short priced jolly in Joburg, and as a Charl sceptic I am delighted he is so short, as he is taking a huge chunk out of the market, and hence inflating the prices of the couple of class players in behind him. Charl, like Rory last week, does not win often enough, or convert enough short priced opportunities to warrant backing at 4-1. Bookies cant really price him much bigger I suppose, as afraid of giving him the look of an e.w steal, given the significant lack of strength in depth.

Its that lack of strength in behind that leads me to stay at the head of the market this week. Its been a case of the earl bird catches the worm as regards the prices though, as bookies have slowly cottoned on to the real chances of the better players here.  I was hoping for 10-1 on George Coetzee, so when two bookies chalked up 14s, that had to be snapped up, as it was never going to last. George came here as a 15-2 shot last year, and after a very similar preparation this time, 14s was massive. Yes, he has yet to win, and I am crabbing a Masters winning favourite for not winning enough, but Coetzee looks ready to my eye, and will be a shock if he does not contend on Sunday. He has looked less jittery when in contention of late, and I expect him to convert a winning opportunity soon. On Sunday!! He is only 11-1 now, but I think that still underestimates his chance.

With Charl taking so much out of the  market, there is plenty of value in backing the two other local stars, Thomas Aiken and Richard Sterne. Like Coetzee, their prices have contracted slightly, but still offer value imo. Sterne absolutely hosed up in this last year, and will have had his eyes very firmly set on a repeat. He showed up well in a much better class event last week, notably hitting some superb approaches with his long irons, which will be off benefit around here on a track measuring over 7600 yards.

Aiken finished tied 5th Coetzee in Qatar, and is one of the few other players in this field that look like a potential winner. With his decent course form, he looks sure to be thereabouts, and as such the 13-8 on offer for top 20 also looks a steal. Certainly an odds on shot in my view.

Further down the list Daawie Van der Walt is certainly one of the most in form players. an in much better events than this. He has seemed to lack the fight or belief on Sundays, and that has downgraded his finishing positions. But if he keeps putting himself in these exalted early positions, it will become second natute, and one day soon, he will crack the Sunday part of it. In a field this week, the 100-1 SJ chalked up was an insult. I missed that myself, but the 66s was still far too big.

1.75pts e.w George Coetzee 14-1
1.1 pt e.w Richard Sterne 22-1
1pt e.w Thomas Aiken 25-1
.4pt e.w Daawie van der Walt 66-1
8pts Thomas Aiken Top 20 13-8


In the Pebble Beach event, it is again to the top of the market I head.  But again, not to the favourite. How Jason Day heads the market has me baffled. There are players who when playing badly can find ways to win. Day is the best in the world at finding ways to lose, even when at the top of his game. Always over bet, I never find reason to back him.

Phil Mickleson is an enigma. Its for this reason, as stated before, I prefer to back him off an apparent lack lustre performance. He was mediocre last week, but the fact he played all 4 days, suggests all is now well after his back problem. If Phil won last week, he would be about 13-2 this week. If Phil won last week, he would be no more likely to won this week than he is now. Yet he is double that price. What he does one week, has absolutely no bearing on what he will do the next. He is a proven winner, loves the course, how he is bigger than Jason Day is absurd.

Dustin Johnson, may be another who doesn't win as often as he should, but he does win, at least once a year since his debut on tour, and he knows his way around here with his eye closed. He will be primed for this event, a 5th in the Champions event showing him to be in good nick, and he could win this on the bridle.

Another shortish priced selection im afraid (but all over priced imo) is Jimmy Walker. Available at 28s, but I have gone with place over price, and taken the 25s 6 places with Powers. Walker has been top ten here the last 3 years, when he was neither as good a player, or as confident a player. Most importantly, he is  now a winner. I get the feeling he would be a good deal shorter, probably about 16s or 18s, if he didn't miss the cut on his latest outing. I have drawn a line through that, as he was out of his comfort zone playing in the circus atmosphere, which is a Tiger Woods 3 ball. The 6-4 on a top 20 is also very big.

Further down the list Aaron Baddelly at 100-1 and Spencer Levin at 80s also warranted support. Both have from around here that is superior to what they show on many other tracks, so the fact that both have shown improvement lately at venues where they are not so prolific, bodes well for prominent showings this week. The 4-1 on Baddely is also particularly appealing.

1.75pts e.w Phil Mickleson 14-1(6 places)
1.75 pts e.w Dusty Johnson 14-1
1pt e.w Jimmy Walker 25-1 (6places)
.25pt e.w Aaron Baddely 100-1
.3pt e.w Spencer Levin 80-1
8pts Jimmy Walker Top 20 6-4
4pts Aaron Baddely Top 20 4-1

John Mallinger and Greg Owen were two rags that appealed at 150s and 300s, and I may have a few quid on them on BF, nearer the off, when prices prob bigger in better market.

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Replies: 89
By:
Ozymandius
When: 04 Feb 14 14:22
Thanks for all the effort with the presentation, callit

Huge amount of detail and analysis there, yet one can glace at it to get the gist of your recommendations.

Best of luck.
By:
callitasucit
When: 04 Feb 14 14:30
Running Total......+52.2pts
ROI after January...+40.6%
By:
Ozymandius
When: 04 Feb 14 14:32
Boom!
By:
reb
When: 04 Feb 14 14:36
callit, from what date are those figures calculated ? Great write up as usual.
By:
callitasucit
When: 04 Feb 14 14:40
Since the Sony Open Reb, the first event of the year. Had a very good run at end of last year, but hadn't been keeping proper account. Its for my own information more than anything, I have never been great at keeping records. If I show a huge loss by years end, I can scrap my belief that I make a lot betting on golf!!
By:
reb
When: 04 Feb 14 15:14
Fair dues to you callit. I really think everyone should keep a basic record of their bets. The bookie would never give anyone that advice; there's a good reason for that !  Yet they provide the easy means for all of us to do so - you'll never be short of a pen or paper in a bookies !
By:
newapproach
When: 04 Feb 14 15:21
5 picks for me over @ pebble beach this week:

Hunter Mahan 16/1 win
top class player who played excellent last week.

Jordan Spieth 22/1
Lack of strong course experience a disadvantage but has the game to flourish here.

Chris Kirk 33/1
Good GIR and putting stats and also in good form.

Matt Jones 50/1
Playing excellently so far this year and bound to win one sooner or later.

Bryce Molder 80/1
Excellent putter with strong course form who could figure this week @ a big price.

Good luck all.
By:
callitasucit
When: 04 Feb 14 17:03
Matt Jones is playing well alright NA, yet doesn't seem to be one of the markets 'sexy' players, so his price is holding up well despite his hot form.
By:
frankalsoran60
When: 04 Feb 14 17:26
Theres worse bets then Scott jameson e/w , i feel he is very underated[around 80/1 with betfair] p.s Money back from Boyles if you pick is 2nd to Charl Scwhartzel OR   Phil Mickleson..prices aint great Doee.  ..Excellent write up Callit, i will take note of your choices.Happy
By:
huddys
When: 04 Feb 14 17:49
Great write up as always callitasucit,my 1st selection is also Coetzee win only 12/1,missed the 14/1,wasnt as quick off the mark as yourself,couldnt really back Schwatzel after letting me down in style in the past,just wait and see he will prob win in a canter this week,also done  e/w bets on Sterne 18/1 as you said in great form and been the defending champion will have great confidence coming into this week,2nd e/w selection is Otto who's also in good form 3 top 20's in his last 6 outing,finished 2nd in the south africian open in November at 33/1 think this is a great e/w bet,
Now off to America,1st of all,have to throw a few quid e/w on my old friend Bello who has cost me a series amount of money over the last few weeks,think at 100/1 is worth another try e/w,he's a good links player no pressure on him this week so worth a small investment,1st main e/w selection is Patrick Reed won a few weeks ago for me in great form,solid week last week,this type of format will suit him,with his easy going style of play,33/1,2nd selection is Snedeker e/w 28/1,has had a quiet start to the season but will come in with abit of confidence been the defending champion,just think this price is too big e/w paying 6 places.

Selections
Europe.
Coetzee win 12/1
Sterne e/w 18/1,
Otto e/w 33/1,

America,
Bello e/w 100/1,
Reed e/w 33/1,
Snedeker e/w 28/1,


Have also done small e/w doubles Sterne Otto permed with Reed and Snedeker,

Will do some top twenty cross double will post them up later haven't made the final selections,best of luck this week lads,
By:
frankalsoran60
When: 04 Feb 14 18:56
Huddys it might interest you to know that Boyles have Sterne at 20/1[ best price anywere] with money back if 2nd to Charl Scwhartzel, i just hope the price will last.
By:
workrider
When: 04 Feb 14 19:00
Great write up huddys , great to see ye lads doing the business , week after week , well apart from bubba that is....
By:
huddys
When: 04 Feb 14 19:01
Thanks frank I backed him with powers because I was doing the cross doubles there,with them paying 6 places in America,would of done the single e/w if id known of their special,thanks anyway,
By:
huddys
When: 04 Feb 14 19:03
Don't mention the war workrider ha,See you at leopardstown on sunday,
By:
workrider
When: 04 Feb 14 19:16
No prob Laugh , see ya sunday...
By:
newapproach
When: 04 Feb 14 19:49
I'm expecting a decent week from POD also. I haven't punted him as it is very hard to with his erratic form but he has played quite well at this tournament in the past. He played well at the volvo a few weeks ago but has continued that form the last couple of tournaments.

Hopefully he plays well this week and can get a win on the board before Augusta to try and get his career back in business. Anyone backing him this week?
By:
dinglemick
When: 04 Feb 14 22:27
Great run from you at the moment Calli ......Well done great stuff ...close but no cigar from me at the weekend with Olsen and Matusamya
By:
callitasucit
When: 04 Feb 14 23:56
Ya, I was a bit disappointed by Matsuyama finishing effort on Sunday. Seemed more nervous and anxious than I expected. And needs to become a better putter before he fulfils his potential. Still a superb prospect though.
By:
workrider
When: 05 Feb 14 10:03
Yes Callit , and he's still only 21 , 16th was his undoing , was going as well as any till then...
By:
callitasucit
When: 05 Feb 14 10:40
Yeah, and when he struck it, he seemed to love it. Just a shade too much club.
By:
STELLAR MANIPULATOR
When: 05 Feb 14 11:14
Everyone remarks on his excellent putting technique but he holed absolutely nothing on the last day although brilliant from tee to green , reminded me of Rory a bit...
By:
workrider
When: 05 Feb 14 11:22
I think he hit an 8 when all he needed was a 9 , thats where an experienced caddy comes to the fore , pardon the pun...
By:
callitasucit
When: 05 Feb 14 12:26
Paul Goydos is worth throwing a few quid at at 1000 on here for Pebble Beach. In very poor form for couple years now, but does tend to fire in one good performance from nowhere every once in a while. This format, on a track where he really should have won a few years back when in final two ball with DJ, could just inspire him to do it this week.
By:
workrider
When: 05 Feb 14 12:36
Callit , can't have this fellow at any price , didn't he blow a massive lead with a few to play here a few years ago , Bubba is heading down the same road , well thats a little ott i know , but you know what i mean ..
By:
callitasucit
When: 05 Feb 14 12:50
Yeah, I had him backed, think about 250/300-1. Doesn't cost much to find out though WR...
By:
workrider
When: 05 Feb 14 15:09
Very true Callit so will have a dicky on him for a interest...
By:
Deplasterer
When: 05 Feb 14 16:10
Great to see the golf thread getting more popular this year and some great tipping from everywhere so far as usual, hopefully it keeps up.

At Pebble Beach like the chances of Hunter Mahan if not particularly the price but as I think he is a winner waiting to happen, have taken the 18.5 as his record around these links ain't that bad either.

Because were back on Links and he seems to driving well again I have to speculate a few sheckles on Pod. Short game is gone but hoping he can carry it through for 4 days this week and he loves these pro am events with JP.

H Mahan 18.5 W&PL
Padraig 190's W& Pl

No bet in Joburg, but on prices alone Sterne would be the punt.

GL All.
By:
huddys
When: 05 Feb 14 19:00
Decided to back james Driscoll top 20 in America solid last two outing finished 28th and 21st,and finished in the top 10 here last year,so will like the format and at 4/1 is a very backable price,Also decided to perm him up with Magus A Carlson in Europe,two top ten finishes in his last four outing against a much stronger field 9/4,And last permed Baldwin 11/4 another player playing very solid against much stronger fields 11/4,last 4 finishes 2nd-19th-22nd-41st,

Driscoll top 20 4/1,

Driscoll top 20 prermed with Carlson and Baldwin
4/1-9/4,
4/1-11/4,
By:
callitasucit
When: 05 Feb 14 21:39
Both Richard Sterne and Hennie Otto look good 3 ball bets in the morning, 9-4 and 7-4 respectively.
By:
Distant View
When: 06 Feb 14 13:14
3 ball bets going well this morning callit!

We have some similar picks in the States.

My PB preview is below - It takes an age to cut and paste into a readable format on here, but I would be interested in your views, particularly with the Todd selection, as we agree on Levin.

http://bit.ly/1fISOAy
By:
callitasucit
When: 06 Feb 14 13:59
Yeah 3 balls done the business. Bit disappointed with Sterne finish from an outright point of view. In work at moment DV, will have a look at that later.
By:
callitasucit
When: 06 Feb 14 17:18
Greg Owen looks excellent bet at 23-20 against Scott Langley, in one of the last 2 balls out.
By:
callitasucit
When: 06 Feb 14 20:58
Very interesting read DV, very in depth. You obviously have similar views to me as to the best time to be backing Phil. I would hazard a guess that backing Phil blind when he starts at 14-1 or bigger in regulation events would yield a profit over the years.

I had a look at Todd this week, but just preferred Baddely and Levins greater experience of 'being involved', at similar prices. Of the rags, Mallinger, Goydos and Greg Owen looked interesting.

Do ye have much traffic through the site? Is it free site? Good Luck this week,.....especially with Phil and LevinWink
By:
workrider
When: 06 Feb 14 22:21
I see JP is 3 under , I'd say he'll clean out his playing partners....Laugh
By:
callitasucit
When: 07 Feb 14 01:10
Stevie Webster is very big at 9-4 in tomorrow mornings 3 ball. Would make him fav myself.
By:
Distant View
When: 07 Feb 14 09:39
Nice finishing eagle for Phil before play was suspended last night. Another birdie of two will put him in a good position.

Horsey's round is frustrating today as he has not played East London (host of next week's Africa Open) but looks tailor made for it. If he continues to keep his name near the top of the leaderboard, he will be too short when they open prices on Monday.

Sterne proving very disappointing in round 2.Leaderboard setting up nicely for George to put in a big display this morning. Bourdy moving through the field nicely and he can find another birdie over the closing two holes, he is in a very nice position.
By:
callitasucit
When: 07 Feb 14 10:27
Very poor from Sterne. From fav to cut in a few hours!!

As regards next week DV, im keeping an eye on Freddie Jacobson. A promising, unsighted 20 something finish, would be ideal this week.

Greg Owen 2 up through 15 in 3 ball, but play suspended. Thought as long as its a delayed payout, that's ok!
By:
Distant View
When: 07 Feb 14 11:28
Freddie was excellent there last year alright.

Charl playing nothing like well enough this year to be considered - He really should have won it last year but it was the first of many poor putting displays in contention last year, none more so than at Merrion.
By:
callitasucit
When: 07 Feb 14 14:15
I will lay Charl in contention, all day long. Still have that Masters down as a fluke. He does done nothing since to suggest otherwise.

Something about Augusta, with these bottlers getting over the line. Bubba, Charl, Scott....
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