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02 Feb 14 00:33
Date Joined: 12 Apr 07
| Topic/replies: 1,480 | Blogger: timberman's blog
Difficult conditions but my three bets for tomorrow
140 Chancol
240 marlbrook
410 Portrait King
Top racing in Mussleburgh tomorrow as well on RUK
Small Double as well  in Boils of Meath 4/9 & Donegal 4/7 in Football
Pause Switch to Standard View Punchestown Sunday
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Report workrider February 2, 2014 10:29 AM GMT
A horse that can return to form with a vengeance today is .Two Scoops in the pretempts , he's to small for chasing , so reverting back to hurdles with such a low weight , makes him a standout e/w bet today , a smashing day if slightly cold  up here ...
Report silvergreaser February 2, 2014 10:55 AM GMT
Chancol couldn't have been found an easier opportunity than this, the trip the only concern for those taking shortish odds.

On a strict line of form through Macnicholson and Synchronicty gives Lieutenant Colonel the beating of Wicklow Brave.

Bishopsfurze shaped with promise over hurdles last time but I thought I might have got bigger odds on its first try over the banks.

I wonder which Popcorn will turn up today?, he's certainly a lot better than his last run.

Robbie Hennessys Space Ship looks interesting at Musselburgh, I also like Nichols Sametegal and Los Nadis in the last.

Racing Pulse looks one for the short price multi.

Good luck!.
Report workrider February 2, 2014 10:56 AM GMT
I know i'm leaving myself open to criticism , but i've layed Meades in the first , this fellow looked like a chaser in the making , and am hoping his tumble last time will be fresh in the mind...He raced with the choke out , if this continues i can see him getting beat...
Report silvergreaser February 2, 2014 11:21 AM GMT
Hard to find any viable alternatives workrider Pink Hat was very disappointing last time, Polish Partizan might be over priced to make the frame.
Report workrider February 2, 2014 11:44 AM GMT
Just dont like this fellow , but as you say , very little opposition to him worth talking about..
Report newapproach February 2, 2014 12:20 PM GMT
I thought Clonard Lad looked very well treated in the 3 mile handicap hurdle.On the basis of some of his novice form when beaten by apache stronghold andbumper form behind foildubh, he looks the best handicapped horse in the race to my eye.

Only douby might be whether he wants better ground but I think I'll chance him anyway.

Main dangers could be questions answered who won twice over hurdles before christmas and gold patrol who ran well over this trip at christmas.

Not a big fan of thunder and roses who was second in a weak race last time so might lay him as well if the price is right.
Report huddys February 2, 2014 12:20 PM GMT
Done an acc for punchestown today Chancol 1:40,Wicklow Brave,Arvko Ligeonniere,and Bosman Rule in the bumper,
Report easygold February 2, 2014 12:39 PM GMT
Hi Silvergreaser........... have a saver on Scots Gaelic in the last at Muss, very well handicapped, if Quinn has him ready should win this easily win the excellect Pratt on board.
Report norn iron February 2, 2014 1:15 PM GMT




Report tony57 February 2, 2014 1:17 PM GMT
took 7/4 last night for lieutenant colonel, I like this one and expect it to win.also the bumper looks weak?..5/4 is a bet for me. good luck lads..
Report newapproach February 2, 2014 1:26 PM GMT
I think hairy o malley will win the bumper. His form looks stronger than that of the mullins horse imo and the races which bosman rule finished second in look particularly weak.
Report pa lapsy February 2, 2014 1:37 PM GMT
Whatever the result with Hairy O' it was well over priced at 3/1 earlier, Bossman looks and runs like for want of a better expression "a flat horse" not sure will he stay that well on this ground,given the smallish field hope there is a decent pace and think Hairy O' has a good chance of outstaying bossman.
Report tony57 February 2, 2014 2:15 PM GMT
wow I take my hat off to Wicklow brave..plenty better than the giggy runner!
Report easygold February 2, 2014 2:18 PM GMT
The Bumper, well Justin O`Hanlon from the Racing Post will surely think Xmas has come 11 months already, considering he thought Bosman Rule was a 2/5 shot??????????? .Regards to who wins the race how he thought he was a 2/5 shot I will never know.

My own feeling on the race is that the first in the betting are slow horses when push comes to shove and it wouldn`t surprise me if the Fran Flood horse wins it, he did improve over hurdles the last day a race that has worked out well. It will be a delight for the trainer who doest have a good record with his bumper horses.
Report paulie wallnuts February 2, 2014 2:24 PM GMT
tony57......its not too hard to beat giggy......they have no horse outside mullins.....who is worth a bubble.....fair achievement....with all the money they have spent.....
Report donemynuts February 2, 2014 2:28 PM GMT
Just read Mullins is working a few at Punchestown after racing. Champagne Fever is one. Any ideas about the others?
Report pa lapsy February 2, 2014 2:29 PM GMT
Flood horse has a chance alright Easygold with a very fragile line through Swantykay.
Report tony57 February 2, 2014 2:38 PM GMT
I understand paulie..but my point is I liked the giggy horse before the race..i thought it would be close but the Wicklow pissed all over the other which surprised me..
Report easygold February 2, 2014 2:43 PM GMT
Yeah, Pa something has to win it,but the prices from a so called expert is very dodgy indeed????? that`s where people that study form more closely have an edge if odds compilers take a view from the R.Post.

I have no bet in the race.
Report dj876 February 2, 2014 2:56 PM GMT
Who cares about racing post betting forecasts?Odds compilers rarely take a view just, shadow this place and add on their margin.

Paulie,Trifolium isn't too bad but that is just being pedantic.Mouse Morris and Charles Byrnes haven't done too bad from a limited supply.Will Eddie get the chop?
Report dj876 February 2, 2014 2:57 PM GMT
I think it was Neil D who was recently commenting on Jetson being well handicapped?
Report pa lapsy February 2, 2014 3:00 PM GMT
Yeah without wanting to go down his throat have to wonder did he look at the vids,see WPM is saying it mightn,t be his ground on his site this morning and that was the first impression i got after looking at his last runs, suppose there are a fair few horses to price and overall he probably gets a lot near enough right.
Report paulie wallnuts February 2, 2014 3:24 PM GMT
dj876.....forgot about trifolium.....the mouse's supply hasn't been what i'd call limited....eddie definitely wont be getting the chop as its him is the one who does the chopping.....the brother doesn't know whats going on and doesn't really care....
Report dj876 February 2, 2014 3:30 PM GMT
I was taking the Michael about Eddie!

What don't you like about Trifolium Paulie?
He's got decent course form-third in the supreme,should appreciate better ground (if it ever dries up).I am not saying I would be punting him in the Arkle but I wouldn't rule him out either.
Report paulie wallnuts February 2, 2014 3:44 PM GMT
think trifolium has a great chance.....very good horse when on song....better ground will suit....its expert jumping a big asset....can see it being heavily involved in the finish....if not even winning....
Report dj876 February 2, 2014 3:47 PM GMT
Apologies I misread your previous post,I thought you said forget about Trifolium which had me puzzled.
Report richters February 2, 2014 4:59 PM GMT
wd pa lapsy......
Report pa lapsy February 2, 2014 5:04 PM GMT
Thanks richters, well fancied by Newapproach and The Wildman as well,can,t believe they put him in at 3/1 overnight, great result for me.
Report tony57 February 2, 2014 5:05 PM GMT
indeed welldone pa..
Report richters February 2, 2014 5:10 PM GMT
the bumpers have served well this weekend,pas and wmfb 2day and tonys 2 yday.......and of course we cannot 4get about kingtwatofthegueesers daily lay.....
Report Qzy1 February 2, 2014 9:15 PM GMT
Report wildmanfromborneo February 2, 2014 10:31 PM GMT
Folsom Blue doesn't try in three novice chases gets his desired mark and wins first time of asking in a handicap.

This is not Gigginstown style but it is the trainers,his run in Navan was scurrilous,his run in Thurles equally so,his Fairyhouse run was one designed to fool the handicapper along with the runner up in that race Talbot Road my idea of the Irish Grand National winner.

Ye know my opinion on the handicapper,too lazy to review races just handicap on ratings.

The handicapper is the reason novice chasers are so uncompetitive and why they are a great betting medium.
Report workrider February 2, 2014 10:50 PM GMT
As i put up after his run in Thurles , a shameful run , one i would say , that would have you thinking how safe they feel ..
Report Bigwillystyle February 2, 2014 10:59 PM GMT
Anyone who backed it in Thurles got what they deserved. Horse would have no chance over that trip and well u know it.
Report Bigwillystyle February 2, 2014 11:02 PM GMT
Wildman it didn't matter where he finished in beginners chases he was always going to be rated in the 120-130. If he had won a beginners he would have got the same rating
Report workrider February 2, 2014 11:03 PM GMT
Today was the plan , how they can say it ran on its merits in Thurles is beyond me ....Never put into the race...So answer the question Willy ...
Report Bigwillystyle February 2, 2014 11:11 PM GMT
I agree he wasn't put into it but he also didn't have the pace to get involved. 2 miles in Thurles which IMO is a sharp track is very different to 3m4f on bottomless ground in Punchestown.  You know how the game works and it was obvious enough that they were after a mark on its third run over 2 M
Report wildmanfromborneo February 2, 2014 11:19 PM GMT
Agree Bigwillystyle,obvious to all bar the handicapper.

This handicapping by ratings is a nonsense,he doesn't review races so distance is irrelevant to him.

Its the same on the flat,how many times have you seen a horse run in maidens over an inadequate trip,fool the handicapper and then land gamble in handicap debut,Time Of My Life the most notable.
Report Bigwillystyle February 2, 2014 11:24 PM GMT
Ig he was handicapping him on his  chase runs he would have got a mark of 100 not 127. So the handicapper was watching.
Report workrider February 2, 2014 11:25 PM GMT
I doubt it was bottomless there today Willy , remarkable how well the ground was , the question is, who was compliant , ?
Report pa lapsy February 4, 2014 12:46 PM GMT
To Qzy1
That photo of Quevega is comical as it almost looks like she is talking, concerning the gallops after while not a 100% think it is possible "the un named french import" who took part could be Vivega.
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