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workrider
10 Jan 14 19:42
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Date Joined: 29 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 8,287 | Blogger: workrider's blog
If it survives an inspection , and i think it will , there is money to be made tomorrow with a couple of tasty bets imo...Up first is SI C'ETAIT VRAI ...After its last run surely worth a good bet , he has been highly tried all season , and should finally get his reward for his consistency tomorrow ..We then move on to Elsie 2.55 ..Again another who has been plying her trade at a much higher level , she ran out a game winner against Shesafoxylady only to lose it in the stewards room , having ran against the likes of Don Cossack , Wicklow  Brave ,in the not to distant past , i'm sure she will be right there at the business end tomorrow and at the f/c 6/1 atc site is a great e/w shout ..Add in the fact shes a course winner ...Good luck all punters...
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Report tony57 January 10, 2014 7:47 PM GMT
I,ll follow you in with ELSIE wr..but great racing this side of the pond..im sweet on TWINLIGHT..and the tolworth is a cracker..i think my doe will be on GARDE LA VICTOIRE,that,ll be me tomorrow best of luck mate..
Report workrider January 10, 2014 8:14 PM GMT
Thanks Tony , haven't looked at the UK races yet , trying to concentrate on making a few quid with the little i know of my own racing...Hoping to get over in april for a week , won't make aintree i'm afraid , tracks i'm hoping to visit from 21th to 26th include , Redcar 21 , Kelso 22 Newcastle 24th  Doncaster 25th  Haydock 26th  ..Hope to see you one of the days ..I'll be staying in York...
Report tony57 January 10, 2014 8:16 PM GMT
I,ll find you..haydock only 20 mins away..
Report tony57 January 10, 2014 8:18 PM GMT
I just think TWINLIGHT will have too much for these(if he stays)thought hes been im pressive this year.
Report workrider January 10, 2014 8:20 PM GMT
Will have a look at the race soon and get back to you about Twinlight.....
Report workrider January 10, 2014 8:32 PM GMT
Tony , he's stepping up in class , if he's to stay he'll never have a better chance today at kempton ..Hes a good jumper , and is progressing very well and has done all that's been asked of him this year ...I think he'll come up a little short today and at around 2/1 i'd be a layer rather than a backer ..Good luck with that ...
Report tony57 January 10, 2014 8:38 PM GMT
he may be stepping up in class wr..but the rest of them look on the way down to me..his jumping will help..my only worry ie if he stays..
Report tony57 January 10, 2014 8:39 PM GMT
11/4 with pp..
Report slickster January 10, 2014 8:40 PM GMT
He'll need to stay very well if he's running TODAY, and i presume, tomorrow!!!
Report tony57 January 10, 2014 8:47 PM GMT
jesus just been on rpv..mullins has only a 5%s/r with his chasers this side of the water in the last 5yrs!CryShockedthat's a dreadfull stat...
Report slickster January 10, 2014 9:10 PM GMT
Good memory wildone. In fairness, anybody in the game not knowing how to spell one of the greatest ever trainers name should be ashamed of themselves. How was your dinner?
Report neill d January 10, 2014 9:57 PM GMT
Probably because they are only running in the top top chases I'd say Tony. Twinlight is probably the best two miler in Ireland bar Flemenstar and maybe Arvika.
Report paulie wallnuts January 10, 2014 10:31 PM GMT
I will follow you in too wonks ......6/1 elsie looks very nice odds.....id say a bit of that would be ok.....the only thing is that you would have to tiger kidnap a bookie.....to get that price.....
it could well be fav wonks.....and if its anywhere near 6/1.....I will retire.....
wouldn't mind laying twinlight at 2/1 either......might be difficult though.....
Report wildmanfromborneo January 10, 2014 10:53 PM GMT
Why not just give us your own opinion Paulie.
it looks a match to me,Pink Hat is back a half mile in trip and is ridden by Patrick Mullins two major negatives for me but the form of the Clonmel maiden hasn't half been franked by Theatre Bird even some of those behind Pink Hat have run well since,throw in the fact that Pink Hat was given too much to do and we may have a nap.
Report workrider January 10, 2014 10:57 PM GMT
Paulie as i said , I took that from the ATR site , I would bite their hand off for that kind of price ..Still around 3/1 will do ...
Report Bigwillystyle January 10, 2014 11:13 PM GMT
How much in hand has tyners horse in 3rd race. Must have 30 pounds at least.  Probably a run around tomorrow though!
Report keen leader January 10, 2014 11:15 PM GMT
racing is a game of opinions, with a little inside info always a help.

I am going to be the polar opposite to some of you.

think si c'etait vrai is a bit of a monkey and meades will easily see it off with carberry back on board

and I am going to oppose all of the mullins shorties tomorrow. vautour is absolutely no 1/3 shot on form, nothing wrong with harringtons or fahys in that race in terms of form, vautour may win, it is no penalty kick having won a maiden with most of the runners tourists at navan.

I think the days banker is captain chris, a top ranker at this trip on a right handed track...2/1 is a gift, I would be shocked if twinlight came close to bothering it.
Report easygold January 10, 2014 11:53 PM GMT
Hi Neil, Hidden Cyclone wud be ahead of Twinlight in my book, and if C.Chris or C.Court run their race he will struggle.
Report frankalsoran60 January 11, 2014 12:24 AM GMT
lucky15.... sunwild life 11.55 ling,captain chris,mulllaghnoe river,mr fiveyone,...time to oil the wheels on my wheelbarrow.Tongue OutTongue Out
Report neill d January 11, 2014 12:27 AM GMT
You could be right there Easy, I'd kind of forgotten him. HC is one that has always been a bit strangely campaigned. The way he travels suggests they might just have belatedly found his best trip. I'd say that run in the Paddy Power might have made a man of him as well.

One of the RP lads Jennings is very high on Twinlight. Wouldn't be one I'd think is necessarily wanting the trip but Mullins has always seemed positive about him. He's been brought along slowly and I don't think they'd want to be cashing out on him yet by sending him over for a hard time if he wasn't up to it.
Report The Gotchee January 11, 2014 12:32 AM GMT
I am going to go against you workrider in the mares hurdle. The best hurdle form on show is Dantes Firth. Last time out she finished second in a maiden hurdle to The Cookie Jar (beaten 3 lengths giving 13 lbs) who had previously finished 3rd in a Grade 3 hurdle at Down Royal. It was Dantes Firth's first run over hurdles and she jumped like an old pro.(sure to come on for the run) I know some in the race have better bumper form but they will have to be on top of their game to beat DF now that she has a run under her belt. She is a solid E/W bet at about 6/1
Report easygold January 11, 2014 12:35 AM GMT
I know David, he is an o.k judge but could be a bit bias here, the trip is a massive neg... the pace will be solid t/out and not hiding place for him. He looks an out and out 2 miler and I can see him drift in the market t/out the day. Best of luck anyway if your playing. Keep well
Report The Gotchee January 11, 2014 12:35 AM GMT
If you can get 6/1?
Report neill d January 11, 2014 12:42 AM GMT
Thanks Easygold, won't be backing him with all the negativity over the trip but I've a feeling he will win a 2 mile Grade 1 somewhere along the line.
Report huddys January 11, 2014 1:42 AM GMT
Done  Trixie for tomorrow Glens Melody 13/8,Rathvinden 15/8 and Galician 2:35 lingfield 15/8,will get the better prices if they go out,best of luck tomorrow lads
Report callitasucit January 11, 2014 1:48 AM GMT
I was very much against Glens Melody the last day, but think she is a cracking bet tomorrow. Different class of event altogether. I would expect her to win on the snaff.
Report Santry January 11, 2014 6:29 AM GMT
The two that I like are Glens Melody in the first at Warwick,who looks a class apart and will have trip and ground to suit and Mullaghanoe River in the first at Punchestown-had a few decent horses a long way back when 2nd to Sizing Gold at Navan and Carberry back on board a big plus . Good Luck all.
Report callitasucit January 11, 2014 8:43 AM GMT
5-1 on Aegean Dawn in the 12.25 K
Report callitasucit January 11, 2014 8:45 AM GMT
5-1 on Aegean Dawn in the 12.25 Kempton looks a steal. Beaten only through lack of stamina on his last oting, he steps back down to a more suitable 2m4f today. His last outing was over hurdles, but although falling on chase debut, he has always looked every inch a chaser. Running again off 134 today, there is certainly nothing in this field with anywhere near his scope. With his well being ensured, he has to be backed.
Report silvergreaser January 11, 2014 9:24 AM GMT
Nothing really standing out at Punchestown screaming back me, though might have a few quid ew Whisper Rock 2.55P, showed some ability in 2 bumpers (Elise behind 2nd time) before running a nice 2nd to a newcomer at Limerick over xmas.

Pink Hats form has been boosted by Theatre Bird but I always feel if a Mullins horse makes its debut at the likes of Kilbeggan in the middle of the summer its not one of his better ones and might prefer better ground, at around 12/1 small ew Whisper Rock.

I'd be loathe to oppose Vautour with anything, his immediate victim who he beat hard held and had previous good form has since hosed up at Fairyhouse.

Going to concentrate most of my bets across the water.

McMurrough 2.50W
Don Pooleoni 12.45W
African Gold 2.25W
River Maigue 2.40K
Deep Trouble 3.50K

and going to combine the above 5 in an ew L31.

Hey Big Spender loves Warwick (previous winner of todays race 2012) think Tizzard might have been aiming him for this race, at around 14/1 well worth a stab ew.

Soccer Accum:

Huddersfield
MK Dons
Brentford
Rotherham

Good Luck!.
Report huddys January 11, 2014 9:40 AM GMT
Ye Callitasucit Glens Melody looks a great bet today,its my nap of today,River Maigue looks a great e/w bet aswell in the lanzorate,
Report callitasucit January 11, 2014 9:43 AM GMT
River Maigue should love the step up in trip. Competitive heat though, with a good few improvers in it.
Report workrider January 11, 2014 10:36 AM GMT
I would be very reluctant to take such a short price on Hughes in the first , thought it would have been around the 7/4 mark tbh , and with both Willie and  Noel having a strong hand its price has become uninviting ....
Report Swardean January 11, 2014 10:58 AM GMT
I respect Aegean Dawn, but think that Toby Lerone may be improving fast.   I know the stable rate this one and was still going ok until an unusual blunder in a 43k race LTO.  Ground and trip ideal and I think is still very well handicapped.  GL
Report tony57 January 11, 2014 12:28 PM GMT
welldone to all who backed glens melody..didn't fancy it myself..went with the 2nd..but welldone..hope your wrong kl..about twinlight?..but I did say my worry is if he stays..and I backed it before I knew that stat!Scared..best of luck lads...wr have a good day..
Report Ozymandius January 11, 2014 12:47 PM GMT
Thank You, keen leader.

You Sir, are, A Prince among Thieves!
Report Swardean January 11, 2014 12:50 PM GMT
WD winners, would have won a street if hadnt been hampered or ploughed through the second last
Report punchestown January 11, 2014 12:56 PM GMT
Well Glens Melody punters,I suppose giving weight away to all on that ground not easy.
Report kingrat January 11, 2014 1:50 PM GMT
yeah ,i will be following kl on capt chris.the horse is top class.cheers and gl.
Report Ozymandius January 11, 2014 2:15 PM GMT
Keen Leader.....different gravyLove

I feel a love poem of gratitude coming on....
Report punchestown January 11, 2014 2:17 PM GMT
Half the track...
Report Kriskin January 11, 2014 2:18 PM GMT
Top class analysis once again from keen.  WD Sir
Report tony57 January 11, 2014 2:19 PM GMT
yes fair play to kl..twinlight didn't stay..(which was the chance I took) welldone again ..
Report norn iron January 11, 2014 2:19 PM GMT
REQUIN      WETH 325

SOCIETY SHARES  WETH 250

BUDDY BOLERO  KEMP 315

MASTERS HILL  WWICK 300

YANKEE

DANTES FIRTH 255 PUNCH
A FINE YOUNG MAN 330 PUNCH
GORES ISLAND 240 KEMP
SAME DIFFERANCE 335 WWICK
EWAY YANKEE


WELL DONE KEEN LEADER ON CAPT CHRIS AN WINNERS
Report kingrat January 11, 2014 2:21 PM GMT
god bless dickie johnson!a great price and dickie always in control.vwd to kl,the juice was in the price big time.
Report Ozymandius January 11, 2014 2:21 PM GMT
It's ok, Tony, don't worry, nobody follows your tipsWink
Report frankalsoran60 January 11, 2014 2:22 PM GMT
THE best i could get on Capt chris was 15/8, but WELLDONE once again K.L.
Report Ozymandius January 11, 2014 2:23 PM GMT
Laugh
Report kingrat January 11, 2014 2:23 PM GMT
Laugh
Report silvergreaser January 11, 2014 2:24 PM GMT
Ozy with all due respect I don't think you needed Keen Leader to tip those 2 for you, a quick glance at the form book and you could've picked them yourself.
Report Ozymandius January 11, 2014 2:26 PM GMT
tell that to Tony57, Greaser!
Report tony57 January 11, 2014 2:26 PM GMT
the was a time oz that I would give you the time of day..and not jump in when your getting the arse stopmed off you like last night..but im sorry to say your are what the others say you are..like your buddy rat..i wont be bothing to converse anymore..so say as you will...you never answer the question anyway..
Report Ozymandius January 11, 2014 2:28 PM GMT
Greaser....also very insulting to Wonks who put up Si C'etait Vrai!  Can he not follow the form book?
Report Ozymandius January 11, 2014 2:29 PM GMT
gee....another great shout from KL,that 1/3 shot just touched off.

Top bombing Sir!
Report Ozymandius January 11, 2014 2:29 PM GMT
sorry, what question was that, Tony?
Report kingrat January 11, 2014 2:30 PM GMT
that was a biggie sil,kl knew the price was wrong and exploited it.when u go large,u have to have all bases covered.
Report Ozymandius January 11, 2014 2:32 PM GMT
Tony seems to think this place is about putting up losers, rather than winners.
Report frankalsoran60 January 11, 2014 2:32 PM GMT
KEEN LEADER was,nt far wrong about Vartour being a lay at 1.28, but to be fair the 2nd horse might turn out to be very good.
Report silvergreaser January 11, 2014 2:42 PM GMT
Frankals hard to be impressed with that performance from Vautour even allowing for the r/up been better than the bare form.

Have to see him again before I totally dismiss him for the festival, Mullins might have left a bit to work on?.
Report newapproach January 11, 2014 3:02 PM GMT
I can't believe what a short price thunder and roses is in the 3.30.
I've also had this fella marked down as a bit of a monkey and was surprised to even see him put in as favourite, let alone such a short priced one.
I'll be laying this one til the cows come home, anyone out there who strongly fancies him?
Report easygold January 11, 2014 3:26 PM GMT
And which horses do you have running for you that you can trust, it`s o.k saying the price is too short and he is a monkey??? but I don`t see another horse in the field that has solid form to lay him. Your statement is very ??? . But hope u are a winner.
Report newapproach January 11, 2014 3:30 PM GMT
A fine young man is a solid horse who nearly always runs well.
Miss xian was disappointing lto but won fierce impressively before that.
El fontan's run was eye catching last time.

I think theres a few in there who should bounce back from recent disappointments.
Report easygold January 11, 2014 3:42 PM GMT
Well done, a bit too close for comfort though, a better jump at the 2nd last mmmmmmmmm
Report newapproach January 11, 2014 3:48 PM GMT
I'll take it though, the winner really finished strong under a good ride from Power.
I thought russells horse might beat him turning for home but when he faded, I thought I had lost.
Report snap crackle and pop January 11, 2014 5:09 PM GMT
Well done KL. Good shout
Report kavvie January 11, 2014 5:47 PM GMT
done a trixie today after reading this thread..glens mullaghmore and and chris..keen leader diff class..and almost got it right with the wp hottie.a legend
Report workrider January 11, 2014 5:49 PM GMT
I ended up having a good day myself Kavvie ...
Report one last chance January 11, 2014 5:51 PM GMT
Had the 1st backed before reading  K L piece lol you for Navan tomorrow workrider ??
Report kavvie January 11, 2014 5:51 PM GMT
good.i want funds for clonmel in a few weeks..kl provided!!.i have english in the golf ew at 25/1..that wud really be nice
Report workrider January 11, 2014 5:54 PM GMT
Yes OLC , looks as if Willies lot could ruin another card tomorrow , sad state of affairs , if its really hissing it down i might have second thoughts , will see you there if i make it ...
Report one last chance January 11, 2014 5:58 PM GMT
Yea. More than likely be there also
Report 3winnersandasecond January 11, 2014 9:28 PM GMT
Philip Fenton should take care - it might be a long time before Whisper Rock recovers from her exertions today. But well done to the ever vigilant stewards who noticed that Treacy's Star was late into the parade ring and fined poor Pat Fahy €100. They know what's really important...
Report workrider January 11, 2014 9:35 PM GMT
Maddening to say the least 3winners , having said that , in a valuable race at the same track recently , a well known trainers fav walked into the ring as the others left it , not a word said ..I wonder why....
Report 3winnersandasecond January 11, 2014 9:55 PM GMT
WR, I backed the winner of the race. However any punter would have grounds for grievance if they had backed the third (who traded north of 30's on here most of the day...)
Report tony57 January 11, 2014 9:57 PM GMT
that's a joke..100e for coming late..
Report workrider January 11, 2014 9:59 PM GMT
3winners , A tale of two cities , if you get my drift...
Report 3winnersandasecond January 11, 2014 10:06 PM GMT
Yes indeed WR!
Report silvergreaser January 11, 2014 11:20 PM GMT
3winners, I backed Whisper Rock I thought he was a sound ew investment against a dodgy fav see previous post, but I don't believe he was a non trier at all, he was making steady ground from the back going very well and just before they turned in he got shuffled back badly on the inside by the grey horse losing valuable momentum and lengths, the jockey did just push out just hands and heels on the run in but I think he just realised he was not going to catch the other 2 so didnt beat the horse up to get a few lengths closer.

If he didn't meet with the interference I think he would've been fighting out the finish but no skullduggery involved imo, have a look back at the race.
Report 3winnersandasecond January 12, 2014 8:30 AM GMT
SG,
Should the horse have been a 16/1 chance?
Have a look back at the race from the start; where was she positioned? how much ground did she make up?
Was the pull at the bend totally due to interference with Scamaill Liath?
Did Mr Power then need to go so wide into straight?
When did Mr Power start to push her out?

Most importantly, did the stewards ask any questions? Perhaps they did...We punters don't know.

Anyhow it's done and dusted at that this stage and you got your place money and may reinvest the next time she runs.
Report silvergreaser January 12, 2014 8:48 AM GMT
3winners I had a look back at it again yes I was a little worried that the horse was settled near the back but it was never too far adrift, its clear the grey horse gets interfered with which in turn had the knock on effect to make Power take evasive action, so I'll stick to my original opinion that the horse was off just a little unlucky at a crucial part of the race.

You may think different as is your right.
Report wildmanfromborneo January 12, 2014 9:17 AM GMT
You really bate all Silvergreaser,you think nearly all races are hooked,accuse Aidan OBrien of all sorts but when you back an obvious non trier you don't see it.
Whisper Rock deliberately went up the inside to be baulked,exaggerated this and then moved out when turning in,had her nicely buried but a gap appeared and she flew through it.
She was never going to win her maiden hurdle until she had her bumper won.
Report silvergreaser January 12, 2014 9:26 AM GMT
Your opinion wildman and I gave mine and I invested on the horse, when the grey horse was interfered with on the inner Whisper Rock was directly behind that horse what did you want the jockey to do run right up the back of it and be brought down?, I suggest you look a bit closer wildman.

Funny wildman you never seem to notice the chronically unfit ones from Ballydoyle, you know the ones that often run with lead horse shoes?.
Report wildmanfromborneo January 12, 2014 9:33 AM GMT
You backed a non trier and one you should have known wasn't going to jig,you presumably watched the race and still thought it tried,no wonder you see all these OBrien horses allegedly at it.
Report silvergreaser January 12, 2014 9:44 AM GMT
I won't comment on Ballydoyle until April as I'm sure the pious one will give me plenty of fuel for the fire as they do every year.

If he was a non trier then why did he stay on for 3rd place for everyone to see?, usually non triers are rooted out the back and stay there?
Report wildmanfromborneo January 12, 2014 9:51 AM GMT
Because a gap appeared and she flew through it,nothing Mr Power could do about it.
Report silvergreaser January 12, 2014 10:11 AM GMT
If I was Mr Power when I snatched up on the bend I would've took it easy from there on in (if I was on a non jig) and if the stewards ask you just tell them you had to take evasive action from the interfered with horse in front of you, instead he kept riding the horse and then realised on the run in he wasn't going to catch the front 2 who had gone beyond recall so pointless beating the horse up when you've already secured 3rd spot the same place you would've finished if you whipped it home only a few lengths closer.
Report workrider January 12, 2014 10:24 AM GMT
Just to put DJ and Paulies mind at rest , P.S thanks for not doubting i had the bet Paulie ......
12:46    33186235506     2014-01-11
12:36     IRE Punch 11th Jan / 12:40 2m4f Beg Chs / Si Cetait Vrai
Lay          2.08    100.00    Won         100.00
Report dj876 January 13, 2014 6:51 PM GMT
No one doubted that you laid it,quite amazing that you felt that this was a positive.
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