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19 May 13 10:24
Date Joined: 25 Apr 11
| Topic/replies: 7,659 | Blogger: roadrunner46's blog
dawn approach price is too short 5/4. very impressive upto now over 6/7/8 f races, the horse has cleaned up. recent years the guineas / derby double is
happening so often. the horse I think that might be able to beat DA is libertarian, just won the dante (derby trial) has the same sire new approach and
from the first crop of that sire. at around 20/1 or more on betfair, this is a lively outsider and should run a big race, will vastly improve over the longer
trip, the way the horse travelled through the dante and finished that race, no doubt libertarian will be challenging in the last 2 furlongs of the derby
and may well get its nose in front and reward followers at a good price. goodluck all
Pause Switch to Standard View LIBERTARIAN DERBY 2013
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Report workrider May 19, 2013 11:00 AM BST
A few good points there r/runner , for me , i think this fellow will struggle around Epsom ...He's quite big , plus he was off the bridle from the get go at York ....No matter how he is drawn at Epsom i believe he will struggle to hold his position , by the time he has caught up after a few furlongs he will be to far back to have any impact ...I agree the trip will suit , but the race will be over before this lad gets into it....
Report mitch leary May 19, 2013 12:32 PM BST
guineas derby double is not happening so often.
sea the stars was the first in 20 years and last year was camelot.
nashwan in 89 was the first since nijinsky in 1970 i think so thats just 4 in over 40 years.
its a unique challenge alright. the one i like is magician but theres a good chance he might go to france. showed an impressive turn of foot in chester.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 19, 2013 12:46 PM BST
Dawn Approach could well be exceptional too, you know, hasn't done nuttin wrong yet..........
Report roadrunner46 May 21, 2013 10:48 PM BST
Shirley heights and benny the dip both beaten at sandown before winning the dante en-route to success at Epsom.
ive been told libertarian's running style is reminiscent of Shirley heights, related through darshaan. only
4 firms going 20/1 and stan lames 12/1 now. goodluck all
Report snap crackle and pop May 21, 2013 11:14 PM BST
time to lump on dawn approach lads., road runnin chap thinkz hes too short at 5/4..,..time to get stook in big me thinkz!
Report roadrunner46 May 29, 2013 10:30 PM BST
few days left now, will the gamble and money come for libertarian on the day?Cool
Report irish_guy_13 May 31, 2013 2:48 AM BST
what about the ground for new approach? will he stay?

He'll either win or not be placed?

what do you think?
Report Mister T May 31, 2013 3:10 AM BST
I think he'll win and win well... and everyone will be saying "how did we let go off at that price? " I think Jim Bolger knows he'll get the trip. I'm on!Excited
Report irish_guy_13 June 1, 2013 1:27 AM BST
im not so sure, maybe he will win and best of louck to him, but there is some improvers with a great chance.
Report irish_guy_13 June 1, 2013 1:42 AM BST
ive gone a monkey ew on bom. gl all.
Report irish_guy_13 June 1, 2013 1:46 AM BST
B / Epsm 1st Jun / 16:00 To Be Placed     Battle Of Marengo     Back     27463158949     01-Jun-13
01:36           2.2     131.28         2.2     01-Jun-13 01:36    
    GB / Epsm 1st Jun / 16:00 1m4f Grp1     Battle Of Marengo     Back     27463148592     01-Jun-13
01:34           7     250.00         7     01-Jun-13 01:34    
    GB / Epsm 1st Jun / 16:00 To Be Placed     Battle Of Marengo     Back     27463145305     01-Jun-13
01:34           2.22     118.72         2.22     01-Jun-13 01:34
Report brain dead jockeys June 1, 2013 2:38 AM BST
libertarian is defo overpriced.........he drifted across the course at sandown but still ran on at the end from an impossible position. i fancy him.if he was trained by a bigger trainer he would be 8/1 max.
Report silvergreaser June 1, 2013 10:36 AM BST
Mitch, but there should've been at least two more?, both El Gran Senor and Dancing Brave were almost certainly the best horse but maybe we can blame the jockeys in this instance?.
Report Kerrygold June 1, 2013 10:50 AM BST
anybody on festive cheer , best backed of the o brien horses !!!
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl June 1, 2013 12:13 PM BST
I agree there silver pilot error in both instances.......lots on here still say DA will not stay, but does anyone really know until he tries the mile and a half ? Have we ever seen sprinting bred types winnining chases ? its all in the horses make-up, and Da has a great attitude, plus connections have always stated that he is an 'uncomplicated' horse and surely this will help him get the distance.. DA for me with BOM place only at 11/8..........
Report silvergreaser June 1, 2013 12:40 PM BST
When you look back on the guineas jay, Dawn Approach seemed to be actually getting faster the further he was going, when O'Brien runs 5 its usually a strong hint he is not overly confident about any of his charges?, the German horse is interesting as is the French one, not overly impressive thus far, but Fabre doesnt usually send them to Epsom unless he thinks the horse has all the right credentials.

Dawn Approach to pounce late and fast and win going away?.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl June 1, 2013 1:08 PM BST
Yes KM has to hold him up, but hopefully not a Dancing Brave effort. In fairness to KM he has done little wrong in all his big doubt he and JB will have run/ridden this race a dozen times.........
Report roadrunner46 June 1, 2013 4:30 PM BST
sprinters dont win derbysLaugh, unlucky with that jockey buick, terrible ride, clueless springs to mind, needed kieron fallon.
did fancy ruler of the world as a cover bet, funds are tight at moment, was the only other horse i had seen run and was
impressed with that spin around chester and ryan moore was pleased that day. still 2nd on the day not bad.Sad
Report punchestown June 1, 2013 4:33 PM BST
Great run by Libertarian-flying at the finish,Irish Guy,unlucky there for third,I'd say it traded pretty low in running and you might have been able to get out?
Report CheltenhamRoar June 1, 2013 4:51 PM BST
"did fancy ruler of the world as a cover bet"

Report roadrunner46 June 1, 2013 5:00 PM BST
put your bets up cluelessLaugh
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl June 1, 2013 7:30 PM BST
Ryan Moore would have won on any of the first four........thats the difference, imho
Report roadrunner46 June 2, 2013 11:35 AM BST
workrider you was right about a horse needing gears in the derby, know for next time the derby comes around, which
horse will be more than capable of winning the race. good leaning curve for me. always thought dawn approach had no
chance of winning that race, just looking at the overall profile, told me that, thier was still plenty of people who
had no clue that wouldnt even be able make a race of it, FWIW when dawn approach won the guineas,looked like a giraffe
at the finish,knew after that race, wouldnt win the derby. jim bolger made a stupid move to go for that race,sheik mo had
something to do with that. ruined the race as a spectacle if you ask me, believe AOB horses set slow race up for ROTW.
Report dj876 June 2, 2013 1:11 PM BST
punchestown • June 1, 2013 4:33 PM BST
Great run by Libertarian-flying at the finish,Irish Guy,unlucky there for third,I'd say it traded pretty low in running and you might have been able to get out?

Battle of Marengo was matched at 1.01 in the place market,in fact the last price matched was 1.05 before suspended.

Plaudits have to go to Coolmore/Ballydoyle for devising and executing their plan to perfection.
Conventional thought believed that they would set a blistering pace to test the stamina of Dawn Approach but having seeing how he pulled over shorter trips,decided to go a crawl.

I don't believe DA would have stayed no matter how the race panned out but that is immaterial now and we will never see him race again over 12f.

Libertarian ran a fine race -It would have been hard to stomach seeing Elaine(Karl) Burke train a derby winner.
Report irish_guy_13 June 13, 2013 1:43 AM BST
thanks punchestown ,
this my first time reading this thread since my monkey ew post. i put 250 ew on price here and 250 ew on betfair sp on bom, because i did not like the fav, i picked the wrong one. My theory was right and if i was sober at the time place laying  the fav was the real bet.

I was just embarrassed posting under the influence, and yes i did get out, cheers.
Report roadrunner46 October 27, 2013 1:18 AM BST
Report roadrunner46 October 27, 2013 9:02 AM GMT
those burkes have been cleaning up all seasonCool they nearly got their own thread, why botherLaugh
Report roadrunner46 April 13, 2019 10:46 PM BST
Report roadrunner46 April 13, 2019 10:47 PM BST
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