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01 Feb 13 13:46
Date Joined: 08 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 5,523 | Blogger: db1974's blog
Don't see a thread for this as yet so might as well get one started

My guesses for this weekend

Ireland +3 @ Wales - difficult to split these teams and home advantage could swing it towards Wales but I'm going to take a chance on the boys-in-green on the hcp

Scotland +15 @ England - Calcutta Cup matches are usually very tight cagey affairs, won by England!. 15 points is too big a margin in Week 1 and I can see this being a one-score game at the end.

Italy +13.0 vs France - Italy are 7/7 with the points at home over the last 3 championships and beat France here 2 years ago when 16-point underdogs. As with England, I would expect France to win but I don't think it will be double figures.

Only other bet this weekend is No Tryscorer in England vs Scotland @ 20/1. As stated above these matches are usually very tight and this bet would have won twice in the last 5 years while in 2012 there was just the one try and in 2011 there was 2, the first of which wasn't until the 67th minute. England may well run in a sackful but 20/1 is too big
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Report Ozymandius February 1, 2013 2:56 PM GMT
Can't disagree with any of that, decent analysis.

I don't think the old staple 'no try' in the Eng Scot game will come in without some poor weather arriving, but it is an almost traditional bet!

Won't be investing much this weekend.  Whilst I agree with you on the three selections above, I don't feel that strongly about any of them.
Report Ozymandius February 2, 2013 11:07 AM GMT
Don't normally do tryscorer bets but PP offer of money back if a forward scores the first try is tempting.
Report workrider February 2, 2013 12:56 PM GMT
i have laid wales ....i think been away from home in the first match might just work in our favor ....less pressure ....
Report BJG February 2, 2013 1:14 PM GMT
Think Italy will cover too - not a walkover at home and think the hcap is quite big in their favour tbh, fancy France to win the championship this year even with the tough away fixtures. Have a massively strong squad but Italy will b well up for this bein the 1st game. Will be tight for 60 mins and France to win by 8 late on

Wales/Ire i have avoided - anythin could happen, 2 teams that have been average to say the least for the last few months but have big performances in them. Mustsay for the 1st time in a while i like the Ireland selection and am happy to see Gilroy and Zebo starting. Would probably just favour them getting 2pts but am happy to leave the game alone

Can see England demolishing the Scots mysef tbh - seem to have a nicely balanced side now with a v strong backline, can see them dominating all over the field. And we all know the trouble the Scots have in scoring tries, can see them scorin under 10 pts here

Week 1 bets:
Italy +13
England -14
Jamie Heaslip anytime Tryscorer 13/2 PP
Report BJG February 2, 2013 1:47 PM GMT
Brilliant from O Driscoll there
Report Kelly February 2, 2013 1:47 PM GMT
Early days , but Wales look poor .
Report BJG February 2, 2013 2:00 PM GMT
Zebo Pele ShockedSilly
Report Kelly February 2, 2013 2:00 PM GMT
Update that , Wales are pants .
Report lapsy pa February 2, 2013 2:01 PM GMT
Grin Nah Ireland are just out of this world.
Good stuff so far
Report Kelly February 2, 2013 2:24 PM GMT
Sexton in good nick . But need another match I think before we can assess Irelands worth , Pa .

Hopefully Wales will improve a bit ( but not too much ) and give us a run in the second half .
Report workrider February 2, 2013 2:25 PM GMT
looking comfortable , except for those last 5 mins..o'driscoll showing the young guys how to spot an opportunity near the end...
Report lapsy pa February 2, 2013 2:28 PM GMT
Only ballhopping Kelly,agree the Welsh are shocking.
Be nice to see an away win in their first game.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 2, 2013 2:34 PM GMT
Would be a good time for DECLAN to sign a new contract Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 2, 2013 2:37 PM GMT
Report Kelly February 2, 2013 3:33 PM GMT
Thank goodness Wales upped their game .  Otherwise we would have been overly confident for upcomong matches .  Cant understand how Wales were so bad the first half , and good in the second .  Tea at half-time ?
Report vinnie_roe February 2, 2013 3:55 PM GMT
I don't want to see BOD playing at scrum half againSilly
Report BJG February 2, 2013 5:44 PM GMT
Nice to av the last minute score go my way for once Silly usually the opposite
Report db1974 February 2, 2013 5:49 PM GMT
FFS - Scotland miss a chance to make it a nervy last minute or 2 for England by knocking on in midfield and England score in injury time to beat the Hcp.
Report ACE JACK DOUBLE SUITED February 3, 2013 4:56 AM GMT
Scotland are absolute muck and will get what they deserve and that's the wooden spoon. Spank Spank Spank
Report Fayzer February 3, 2013 8:08 AM GMT
O'Driscoll is a living legend. The pass was sublime, but the hits and turnovers make him still the best outside centre in the world when fit.

You have to wonder what we'll do when hes gone. For now though we pray he stays fit and enjoy the next few games.
Report db1974 February 3, 2013 4:56 PM GMT
That was a cracking match between Italy & France. Riveting stuff right to the end. Great performance from the Italians. Rome is becoming a more and more difficult place to go and get a win. Really looking forward to this championship now with 4-5 teams looking capable of beating each other. It would be great to see it going down to the final weekend
Report Kelly February 3, 2013 11:34 PM GMT
France looked like 15 players who had just met , no performance level from any of them .

Fair play to Italy , they deserved to win . They played better .
Report BJG February 3, 2013 11:42 PM GMT
France were horrific and Italy were deserved winners - Parisse immense as ever!
Report Kelly February 4, 2013 2:54 PM GMT
Is Trimble not in the squad ?  Would have thought that his level of fitness and physicality would have been an asset for the fairly concentrated period of the Six Nations .  Not making the "first pick" 15 unless others are sub par physically , but a good few of them are already in that category .

And as rugby is becoming largely a survival of the fittest , worth a look for this next few months .
Report Ozymandius February 4, 2013 2:57 PM GMT
Problem with Trimble is he has always been more of an athletic specimen than a natural footballer. In good form at the moment though.
Report BJG February 4, 2013 4:05 PM GMT
Stil would nt av him in the squad tho bar injury to some1 else

Gilroy and Zebo auto starters now

Earls provides cover in the centre Cry full back if needed and on the wing so will always get preference imo

Will av Bowe to contend with too in another few months so his opportunities could b very limited for the foreseeable future
Report Ozymandius February 4, 2013 4:18 PM GMT
Fitzgerald is also a utility back and therefore potentially useful cover.  As indeed is McFadden.  Earls needs to pull up those Moyross socks.
Report Clerkmore February 4, 2013 4:19 PM GMT
Hope Earls isn't playing on Saturday against England. We have enough small men in defence with Gilroy and Zebo without another one.
Report db1974 February 8, 2013 1:58 PM GMT
Round 2

2-1 after Round 1 so here's my guesses for this week

Italy +5.0 @ Scotland (evs with Paddy) - contrasting fortunes for these 2 last week with Scotland putting in a woeful performance against England while Italy fully deserved to beat France in Rome. While the Italians are nowhere near as good away from home, Scotland have been in the doldrums over the last few years and if Italy are ever going to get that first away win in the Championshop, this is it. This is the lowest handicap that Italy have had in the last 3 years (and presumably since they were introduced into the 6-Nations 10 years ago) so it's a tall ask for them but I'm hopeful that the momentum and confidence from last week's win will see them over the line this week. Getting a 5-pt head start is a bonus.

Wales +9.0 @ France (Evs with Paddy) - big game here for both sides with the loser effectively out of the Championship after just 2 games. France looked disinterested last week so it's hard to know if they will be too bothered about it anymore with no Grand Slam on the line. Wales, on the other hand, started slowly against Ireland but came back strongly in the 2nd half. I'm banking on a bit of French apathy here while I think Wales will build on last week's good 2nd half showing. France will probably still win but I can't see them beating Wales by more than one score so the 9-pt start should be enough

England @ Ireland (Evs generally) - big game of the weekend takes place in Dublin with potentially a Grand Slam on the line as surely only France can beat the winner of this match. Ireland started very strongly against Wales but that 2nd half performance lingers in the mind which is a worry. England never looked in trouble last week and the 20-pt margin didn't flatter them at all. I think they will have too much for Ireland on Sunday. Hope I'm wrong though.
Report Clerkmore February 8, 2013 2:10 PM GMT
Ireland unchanged from last week.
Report lapsy pa February 10, 2013 11:12 AM GMT
Looking forward to this afternoon,the Welsh hammering of the French does no harm at all to Irelands chances today. Agree db grand slam looks very much on a plate to todays winners.Best of luck lads.
Report Ozymandius February 10, 2013 1:14 PM GMT
jaysus Pa, its never on a plate...France have beaten us what, 12 out of the last 14 times we played them.  We just don't match up well against them.  And they certainly have the players, if picked, to comfortably do the same again.
Report callitasucit February 10, 2013 1:32 PM GMT
Considering how inept France have been so far, i would be incline to agree with Pa. Am surprised we are not fav today, so had a good bet at 2.2. Should be a cracker. Come on Ireland!!
Report BJG February 10, 2013 1:57 PM GMT
On Eng +2 wen the bettin went up as per other thread where ever its gone

Massive game now for sure, Winners prob win the championship

Still think eng will have too much for us tho
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods February 10, 2013 4:41 PM GMT
Laugh O'Gara having a shocker
Report richters February 10, 2013 4:49 PM GMT
how anyone could watch that cack is totally beyond me........
Report Tolmi February 10, 2013 4:53 PM GMT
Only slightly better than watching an Ulster Championship football match imo.
Report richters February 10, 2013 4:57 PM GMT
in fairness tolmi at least in ulster we could manage 1 or 2 scores from regulation play......utter overhyped CACK imvho.......
Report Tolmi February 10, 2013 5:00 PM GMT
I was only winding you up!It was brutal in tne extreme.I have watched some Ulster Football matches over the years which were poor but I think that was nearly worse!
Report richters February 10, 2013 5:29 PM GMT
agreed tolmi.......
Report Rocketfingers February 10, 2013 6:24 PM GMT
That was bad but i believe the Coulter comments about the Ulster championship games summed it up for me richters when he said he would not pay in to see a game !
Report richters February 10, 2013 6:29 PM GMT
dont think coulter will have to worry bot paying in 2 a game 4 a while fairness the down donegal game at ballybofey last nite was pathetic but it was easier to watch than that cack at aviva 2day.........great win for your relegation tips sligo 2day by the way....although early days.......
Report Rocketfingers February 10, 2013 6:41 PM GMT
I think if you can bring yourself to watch Ulster football you should be able to stomoch a bad game of any other sport !
Report richters February 10, 2013 6:44 PM GMT
what does stomoch mean?
Report Rocketfingers February 10, 2013 6:46 PM GMT
Stomach, in other words you should be able to watch anything when you watched the Ulster championship.
Report db1974 February 10, 2013 7:38 PM GMT
All 3 games were desperate this weekend after 3 crackers last week (well 2 anyway). 1 try from the 2 matches involving the best 4 teams. I can't think of one occasion in the Ireland match when a try looked possible. After backing no try in the Scotland match last week, missed a trick repeating the bet here with the weather being so bad.
Report The Gotchee February 10, 2013 9:19 PM GMT
O'Gara was finished 3 years ago. How he is still playing at this level is baffling???
Report Kelly February 10, 2013 11:29 PM GMT
The fact that the 6 Nations is played in traditionally the 2 worst weather months in Europe is a nonsense . Did  annyone who paid in ( plus travel ) today get value for money in terms of entertainment .  Used to go to the matches in the old amateur days myself , would have hated to have travelled today .

Guess the English supporters are happy  , but they never looked like scoring much outside of Farrell's boot .  Can no one break the gain line these days other than by force ?  Or were Kyle , Gibson , Campbell , John just different class to their opponents .
Report richters February 11, 2013 3:35 PM GMT
the big problem in modern international rugby nowadays is pure and simple....professionalism........or lack of........the players do not care about beating england because their pay cheques will be in the accounts regardless....go back to the few who kelly has named and add in the like of ringland,galway,keane who were doing their weeks work and then would of put their life on the line to beat england or france or scotland for that matter...this latest crew are living on their own importance from the heights they reached a couple of years ago and sadly performances like this is all to common......this is what the gaa has to look forward to if it even contemplates the pro route.......the overhyped self importance brigade do not care....FULL STOP.........
Report Rocketfingers February 11, 2013 3:40 PM GMT
It's only Feb and you've already have the stupidest post and poster for 2013 wrapped up, congrats.
Report Rocketfingers February 11, 2013 3:42 PM GMT
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Report richters February 11, 2013 3:59 PM GMT
stick to scrabble DLAfingers
Report db1974 February 11, 2013 4:26 PM GMT
RF - you need to get that toupee right!
Report Rocketfingers February 11, 2013 4:48 PM GMT
Ya db keeps on sliding off of him :)
Report workrider February 11, 2013 6:55 PM GMT
kelly i.m surprised you left out keith wood in your list there was a man who had pride in his jersey....
Report Kelly February 11, 2013 7:16 PM GMT
My guys all played outhalf  , workrider , Gibson was also acknowledged by the All-Blacks as the best rugby player they had ever seen , but playing centre at that stage .   9 and 10 control the game  , just watch Pienaar sometime .
Report richters February 11, 2013 7:18 PM GMT
eric elwood kelly.....a former galway minor....his mother used to serve us breakfast in the spinnaker hotel in salthill......
Report Kelly February 11, 2013 7:28 PM GMT
Ah Salthill , richters .  Never stayed there  but visited a fair bit from our base in Mayo .  Kids loved the size of the pool there as I remember ( cant swim for toffee myself , I sink ) . Elwood is still making his way in the rugby world too , good to see that sort of continuum .
Report richters February 11, 2013 7:32 PM GMT
its closed this few years now kelly.....salthill is a shadow of its former self......a large slovakian bar seems to be the main premises on bothar na tra now.....the 2 large hotels still very busy tho.....
Report Kelly February 11, 2013 7:41 PM GMT
There was a huge ballroom in Salthill , name ?
Report richters February 11, 2013 7:45 PM GMT
not sure kelly.....but there is a ballroom type building in upper salthill which was once a strip club.....angels.....
Report Kelly February 11, 2013 7:51 PM GMT
Strip clubs were after my time , richters  , John Charles would not have allowed such  with a bit of help from the powers who encouraged comely maidens dancing at the crossroads .   Silver something springs to mind .
Report Arklearkle February 11, 2013 8:08 PM GMT
Getting back to Rugby again it could be 2049 when we win the next grand slam. With the likes of BOD Darcy and OConnell near retirement the cupboard will be quite bare apart from a few including Johnny Sexton. It is true what Richers says most of them are overpaid and full of their own importance.
Report Ozymandius February 11, 2013 8:25 PM GMT
Agree with Rocket, Richters post is one of the most absurd I have read on here.

I would like to suggest that you say to the face of any of these incredibly brave men that they are only in it for the money. 

A large number of them have had countless opportunities to move abroad and increase their wealth (even allowing for their tax breaks here), instead they have consistently chosen to take less money and stay loyal to their province and Irish system.  Sexton is the only exception to date (and everyone agrees he is doing the right thing), its a miracle there is only one so far and it tells you all you need to know about their motivation.

As regards being overpaid, the Irish system is entirely self funded with little or no debt, with no sugar-Daddies to pay salaries so how you come with 'overpaid', I will never know.  The incredible efforts and successes of these players and coaches over the last 10 years has lead to increased crowds and increased revenue.  They have earned their salaries and some.

The Davy Tweed reference suggest your frame of reference is, as it is on all matters, skewed because of a deep and bitter bias and hatrid.
Report richters February 11, 2013 8:36 PM GMT
Agree with Rocket do realise how ridicolous that opening statement makes you sound like rocket full of stories of hedonistic lifesyles and tales a plenty.....2 of the biggest bullsh1t artistes on the forum...which most will you even know who the players myself and kelly mentioned are...i doubt it....the big rugby man that you are...........the closest you got to landsdowne road was when the tinnelly demolition lorry drove past your house with the rubble from the old terrace ffs.......rocket will be pleased you have jumped to his defence here ozy but the truth is neither yourself nor him know very much about anyone or anything mentioned in the thread......
Report Ozymandius February 11, 2013 8:45 PM GMT
As a matter of fact I played there on a number of occasions and practically spent every second weekend of my childhood there as my older brother played there on a continuous basis for 10 odd years.  My Father has played there also and my Grandfather's ashes are scattered at the (old) ground.  (God only knows where they are now!).  So I think I can safely say I know the place!

Why not respond to the main content of my post rather than blustering away about Rocket and other tangential matters  Or perhaps that is beyond you?
Report richters February 11, 2013 8:55 PM GMT
ozy i never doubted anyones bravery.....but in fairness there wasnt much bravery shown point being ozy a performance like yestredays from an irish rugby team pre pro era wouldnt of happened.......i can think back to ireland teams getting beat by usually superior england teams with the likes of matthews,hamilton,staples,geoghean,bradley,i could go on...but christ a performance like yestredays wasnt witnessed.......and yes ozy i will stand by my remark that many of them are caught up in their own hype very much like the majority of intercounty gaa footballers nowadays......mainly due to the over exposure by the media nowadays.....fairplay on the landsdowne road connections ozy i obviously used the tinnelly remark tongue and cheeck.......
Report Ozymandius February 11, 2013 9:03 PM GMT
In the amateur era we were all bluster for 5 minutes, then knackered.  Our only tactic was the garryowen.  In short, we were almost always rubbish, despite having the occasional superstar Kelly has mentioned.

As regards our performance yesterday, England didn't make a singe line break and never looked like scoring. We gained parity at scrum time, a huge achievement and probably shaded the lineout battle too.  We didn't play well granted, but we lost a few key players to injury early, and we dropped too many balls even allowing for the conditions.  It was a close run thing in a poor match in difficult conditions against a team who have just beaten the ABs.  I think your reaction about the performance is well OTT.
Report richters February 11, 2013 9:06 PM GMT
fair enough oz but the phrase schoolboy errors would come to mind when summing up yday......
Report Ozymandius February 11, 2013 9:10 PM GMT
agreed, there were 5 or six dropped balls that shouldn't have been dropped, even allowing for the conditions but that is a long way away from your original position of saying they simply didn't care, were only in it for the money and the old amateurs would have cared more.
Report richters February 11, 2013 9:15 PM GMT
i still stand by that remark oz.....its my same argument against gaa going semi makes the world go round.....and the sexton transfer will open the floodgates....
Report lapsy pa February 11, 2013 9:18 PM GMT
Agree it was a bad game,Ireland had a dose of the dropsys,like yourself Ozy i was shocked O Gara went for the penalty kick on 70 mins.
Report richters February 11, 2013 9:22 PM GMT
ozwald essential viewing har TE 1 9.35
Report Kelly February 11, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
For years and years England were easy meat ( relatively ) . Lots of the Irish (forwards mainly) were not particularly fit , and seldom lasted 80 minutes anything near flat out .

But the backs were fit and fast , try running against David Hewitt over 100 yards  then , reckon he would beat any of current players  , saw him clock 10 secs for 100 yards when he was a schoolboy , on the grass track at Cherryvale --Queens playing fields  . He was a super Lion too .  And O'Reilly could move too . The forwards were generally slow , remenber Keith Woods dad playing --Bernard Gordon Malleson Wood --we did their pension scheme , had to have 3 initials to play for Ireland in those days --Cameron Michael Henderson Gibson . Those were the days , but they were great craic .
Report Kelly February 11, 2013 10:01 PM GMT
On a down memory lane note , went to Dublin for a rugby international when I was a uni student , think a couple of the Irish team were fellow students although I was tied up with the GAA , and neer the twain would meet or  tread the same paths in those days . Anyway gave a couple of fellow students ( female ) a lift somewhere in Dublin the day after the game  , they had been to a dance on the Saturday night after the game . 

One of them got "lifted " by a certain Irish player at the dance --possibly Clontarf , remember going there a couple of times -- and she recognised him ( who wouldn't at that time in Ireland ?). In the course of conversation she asked him what he wanted to do ( or be) when he had finished study .  Straight back came the answer--I am going to be President of Ireland .  She laughed , but you know what , if he had wanted it he could have been !

But Ireland was too small for him !  Larger than life . Truly independent .
Report richters February 11, 2013 10:09 PM GMT
kelly ye will never believe who i met in connemara last thursday...a former down great?
Report Kelly February 11, 2013 10:14 PM GMT
Try initials richters .
Report richters February 11, 2013 10:16 PM GMT
Report Kelly February 11, 2013 10:26 PM GMT
James ?
Report richters February 11, 2013 10:29 PM GMT
uimbhir a cuig dheag i968
Report Kelly February 11, 2013 10:42 PM GMT
Never met him , richters , more familiar with the 1960 team , they were more or less my vintage . Know a few of the 68 team well , and have played golf with a few of their team mates  over the years  , but did not run across him in my travels . Hope you had good craic as I am sure you visited memory lane .
Report db1974 February 22, 2013 11:53 AM GMT
Week 3

4-2 so far from the 6 matches

Italy +9 vs Wales - 1 win and 1 defeat for each team so far with both sides having beaten France didn't think I'd be typing that for 10 years at least!) while Wales lost to Ireland in Week 1 after a sluggish 1st half and Italy lost to Scotland in Week 2 despite having the ball for almost the whole game. I'm siding with Italy at home with the points again this week as I think their defeat to Scotland was a very flattering result for the Scots. They scored 2 breakaway tries in that match, incl one where an Italian try-scoring pass was intercepted in the Scottish 22 and run the length of the field for a Scotland try. That knocked the stuffing out of the Italians and they never looked like getting back into it after that. Back in Rome however they are a different proposition than on the road so, as in previous weeks, although I expect Wales will win the match, I don't think it will be any more than a 1-score game so 9 points in generous enough IMO

England -7 vs France - bit of a guessing game as to which French team will show up. If the French team that we all know and love shows up, they could give England a game and blow the Championship wide open. However if the French team that we have seen show up, England will murder them, we are talking potential record scoring here. I'm plumping for the latter

A couple of small bets on alternative handicaps might be worth small stakes, I'm thinking

1/2 pt @ 11/2 on England -19
1/4 pt @ 8/1 on England -22
1/4 pt @ 11/1 on England -25

Ireland -2.0 @ Scotland - as stated above, I think Scotland were very flattered by their victory over Italy. Ireland are a class above the Italians and should win this easy enough. If we lose this then we could very easily get the wooden spoon and RF would have been right. And no-one wants that (the wooden spoon bit obviously!) Laugh
Report db1974 February 22, 2013 12:02 PM GMT
Those altern England hcps are with Lads BTW

Paddy goes

11/2 for -25
4/1 for -22
3/1 for -19

No arb available on the other side in case anyone was wondering Wink
Report Ozymandius February 22, 2013 12:26 PM GMT
First time I have strongly disagreed with you all season, db1974.

Regarding your alternative handicap bet on a large margin Engand win.......England didn't make one line break against Ireland and never looked like scoring a try.  Ok Tuilaigi is back, but they are not a team that easily pull away from opponents.  Essentially they get field position, keep their discipline and rely on Farrell to keep the scoreboard ticking over.  I don't think it will tick over to the extent that you require based on penalty kicking alone.

This is the first proper French backline selected all season.  Plus France have the ability to compete with England at set piece time, hence the 'negative' England selctions of Hartley and Lawes in the backrow.

Should be a humdinger.

Struggling to make up my mind on the other two games.
Report db1974 February 24, 2013 3:43 PM GMT
My God that was a disgrace
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