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wildmanfromborneo
05 Dec 12 21:30
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Date Joined: 30 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 21,252 | Blogger: wildmanfromborneo's blog
I have long complained about the laziness of the flat handicapper and his just handicapping by ratings,this caused great mirth for Paddywhacker and the usual Redbait quote " a new low for the forum" but hard as it is to credit the National Hunt handicapper is just as bad.He doesn't view the races just lazily presses his rating button and there is his handicap.I should probably be staying quiet because there is hay to be made but the trick is get your horse handicapped switch codes and race away while you are not racing you are going down the weights,it can be either way but mostly Chasers going back to hurdling.We see it going on week in week out yet when Bog Warrior reverted to hurdles did the handicapper review his form no he just pressed his trusty old button and out came the old hurdle rating,result a solo for him and all behind him being given no chance.

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Replies: 191
By:
one last chance
When: 05 Dec 12 21:37
if you thought the rating was to low you shud have had a good bet on him then GrinGrin
By:
BJG
When: 05 Dec 12 21:38
His hurdle rating was given after his maiden win - which was beating 100 rated horse by 4l
Horse in 3rd was a PTP'er
Horse in 4th rated 106 beaten around 11l

Takin a line thru the 2nd and 3rd u could say 122 was even too high imo!
By:
BJG
When: 05 Dec 12 21:40
Obviously given what he did over fences he was absolutely lobbed in but the handicapper had to give him a hurdle mark after the maiden hurdle win and he improved massively afterwards over fences and they decided to take advantage of a previously given mark. Not a lot the handicapper can do
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Dec 12 21:44
He can raise his weight he has discretion.
I did back him and I backed Clashnabrook as well.
By:
Prospero
When: 05 Dec 12 21:58
As a general rule, you'd likely do better opposing than backing this type of horse, tend to be well overbet.
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 05 Dec 12 21:59
Can you just highlight these handicap blots Wildman on the AM of each race day and we can all join in the handicap. You're currently the number aftertimer on any bf forum.
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 05 Dec 12 22:14
number 1 that should read
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Dec 12 22:19
It wouldn't affect you as you don't bet,you would probably recycle it on the racing forum saying " my sources in my stable tell me this can't be beaten "
This thread is about the handicapper and his refusal to review races,BJG is again correct that his handicap mark was correct then but subsequent events showed it to be a nonsense and he did nothing,did he not notice who the horse was,has he not some duty to the other horses in the race,did he not notice the trainer was a man who has made a fool of him on many an occasion he just
Azily pressed that button.
By:
huddys
When: 05 Dec 12 22:20
If you didnt know bog warrior wasnt a handicap snip rocket you should give up on the horse racing front.did you not look at the card yourself and notice the horses was a complete penalty kick?
By:
huddys
When: 05 Dec 12 22:24
Do you remember the drumconvis run in a lowly handicap hurdle at naas about 4 years ago wildman,won at think 6/4 in a near 30 runner handicap,barely coming out of a hack canter,another example of what your saying
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Dec 12 22:29
I remember it well because I didn't back the beast.
Bog Warrior wasn't stopped or anything it was the handicappers fault but notice the Martin horses are running on their merits,thevGigginstown Stud influence.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 05 Dec 12 22:30
Wildman the day you start handicapping on anything other than form is the day handicapping loses its credibility. You can't handicap based on who the trainer is or other similar methods, far too arbitrary. Theres also a very good reason why horses have both hurdles and chases marks, many horses have ten pound swings or more between the different disciplines and still can't win off whichever mark is lower. Cases like Bog Warrior are always going to occur but they are hardly happening every day nor even every week. He has been put up 20 pounds over hurdles after winning but you cannot change marks based on the evidence of what they do in another discipline. It wouldn't be far removed from putting them up over jumps if they start winning on the Flat.

I remember Gemini Lucy having a number of goes at handicap hurdles off around 100 and she didn't get near drawing even though she had a mark of 135+ over fences.
By:
Colonel Sanders
When: 05 Dec 12 22:32
Brave Inca another example. Won a handicap hurdle off 93 after good bumper form, I was in up to my neck that day
By:
huddys
When: 05 Dec 12 22:34
Yes that backs up your point about the gigginstown horses,always trying,im sure tony if he could would of loved to mess around with a few of them.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 05 Dec 12 22:35
Saddlers Storm is another example of master handicapping by Martin. Brave Inca was a bit different because you could get them handicapped and then go back for a bumper (or bumpers in his case).
By:
Tolmi
When: 05 Dec 12 22:37
I always look closely at chasers returning to run off lower hurdle handicap marks.I have found over a period of time that it pays to oppose these types as a rule of thumb.They tend to attract RP comments such as cannot be opposed off 20 lbs lower than their chase mark etc..As such they then tend to start at a shorter price than they should.Obviously each case should be taken on its merits but my initial inclination would be to lay them.

And yes I did lay Bog Warrior!!I was not sure if he was back to the horse he threatened to be and at the price I was willing to take him on.I suppose you could call this admission reverse aftertiming!!
By:
misslimerick85
When: 05 Dec 12 22:39
brave inca a handicappers nightmare with his style of running
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Dec 12 22:54
Allduckornodinner he is not handicapping on form he is doing it on ratings.He doesn't seem to take into account ease of victory or things like trouble in running,years ago there were different handicappers for different tracks,also I can't agree that you can't factor in trainer and if you see a horse at it the old rule was of in doubt handicap them out.
Tolmi I hope you didn't lay Clashnabrook or Whiskey And Red last week.
Most of the good poster here commented on the solo Twinlight got in Listowel,the race was a match after the first the horse that jumped off ten lengths behind that day was Saoirse Dun it is obvious the handicapper did his usual and just pressed his button again without taking into account the way the race panned,Saoirse Dun has now notched up a hatrick and I slept for his Naas triumph so have not backed him yet.
By:
workrider
When: 05 Dec 12 22:55
Laugh tolmi ...
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Dec 12 23:02
Brave Inca was stopped in three maiden hurdles then reverted back to bumpers won two of them and then exploited his lenient handicap mark in Fairyhouse and Navan,this I always found ironic as they were owned by a holier than thou syndicate and we still get some requests for money from one of the leaders of that syndicate,BI
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 05 Dec 12 23:05
Tolmi
Date Joined:     18 Mar 06
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05 Dec 12 22:37 Joined: 18 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 370 | Blogger: Tolmi's blog
I always look closely at chasers returning to run off lower hurdle handicap marks.I have found over a period of time that it pays to oppose these types as a rule of thumb.They tend to attract RP comments such as cannot be opposed off 20 lbs lower than their chase mark etc..As such they then tend to start at a shorter price than they should.Obviously each case should be taken on its merits but my initial inclination would be to lay them.

I don't often see eye to eye with Tolmi, but this to me is probably one of the shrewdest comments on here i've seen in a while. I can where you're coming from with that tolmi, basically these things are just overbet, with the likes of wildman and i see chitty laughing as well above, coming in and betting these horses at whatever price forcing the price further away from value and basically being value ignorant. It would be interesting if there was some sort of research done into this. Although as you say tolmi it's a case by case strategy rather than just robot betting these horses. Respect man !
By:
Tolmi
When: 05 Dec 12 23:09
Wildman,

As it turned out I laid neither.Whiskey and Red had changed trainer since its last chase run which put me off laying it and I did not lay Clashnabrook because I was busy at the the time of the race.I did have a small lay of him at Tramore previously though.

I keep a long term record of my bets/lays broken down into headings where I categorise the reason for backing/laying.All I can say is that I have made a profit in that column for nine of the last ten years.
By:
huddys
When: 05 Dec 12 23:14
I take it then you didnt look at last saturdays card at fairyhouse then rocketfinger and notice bog warrior running in a low grade hurdle race and notice it was a good thing?
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 05 Dec 12 23:15
He doesn't give marks out where he isn't happy with a horses run. I know of more than one horse that had to run in a 4th maiden hurdle and unsurprisingly showed a little more than they had previously as they weren't given a mark when entered in a handicap. You can only handicap on what you see on the track, thats pretty basic stuff. The likes of Martin have had plenty of very middling horses too and it would be unfair for, say, a horse only capable of winning off 90 being being discriminated against by the handicapper via an automatically inflated opening mark.

I would be pretty good at spotting horses that are well handicapped in comparison to what they are likely to be capable of (e.g. horses with useful p2p form being handicapped or nice staying types running over two miles as young horses). However, it is purely guessing until they go and do it. To give horses punitive marks simply because they may be capable of better is wrong as it'll be unjust on the ones that you call wrong (and there will be many).
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Dec 12 23:16
I accept without question what you say and I am impressed.
I had to give up the laying as despite some spectacular successes I ended up losing the lot on three separate lays I only back now.It seems to me the layers on here are the lads in the know or the market manipulaters.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Dec 12 23:18
Allduckornodinner what was your opinion of the Twinlight race at Listowel and do you think the handicapper even watched the race.
By:
Tolmi
When: 05 Dec 12 23:22
Rocketfingers

As you say we might not agree on many things but we can agree on value being vital.I remember reading a book on betting by Alan Potts called Against the Crowd.It basically gave his theories on how to make a profit with value being paramount.It also chronicled his betting diary for a period and it amazed me how many of the same horses we had backed considering I knew nothing about him at the time I backed them.

Some American pro gambler said once learn to love bets not winners..I have trained myself this way.I would prefer to back a horse at 10/1 that goes off at 5/1 and gets beaten than a winner at 1/1 which returns 5/4.I know from the former that I was able to discern the value but in the latter I backed a horse at a bad price.Obviously this assumes that SP is an accurate indicator of a horses chance.With the advent of Betfair I think in the long run it is very accurate.
By:
Tolmi
When: 05 Dec 12 23:26
As far as I am aware the UK handicapper has the discression to increase a horses hurdle mark if it has shown improved form over fences since its last hurdle run.
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 05 Dec 12 23:26
Huddys your missing the point, tolmi never said robot laying these animals was the way to go tbf, i believe he said it was a case by case basis they should be looked on. It would be perfectly understandable if these horses were over bet as they're usually very well flagged up by the media and i would imagine traders not pricing them too big either, of course it does not mean they'll never win, but it would tend to make sense what he is saying and i would imagine if that is the case you would make a long term profit and if you were very good you could also be quite selective.

Btw what price was Bog warrior Huddys?
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 05 Dec 12 23:28
I missed Listowel that day and haven't seen that race. Up until recently though I thought Twinlight was quite ordinary and that what was behind him all wanted further so it wouldn't have been easy race to rate.

What mark would you have given Saoirse Dun on her runs over fences and what would have been the basis for said mark?
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Dec 12 23:29
The Irish handicapper has the same discretion but he just never uses it.
By:
Tolmi
When: 05 Dec 12 23:33
Are you sure Wildman?
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Dec 12 23:37
Allduckornodinner I used to do my own handicaps and I would do a literal reading of the form first then adjust for ease of victory and other extenuating circumstances but it is time consuming and I am unpaid,uthe handicapper just does the literal reading of the form because he has it on computer,that is lazy and wrong,in the Listowel race the handicapper never factored in the solo he got plus the fact that Saoirse Dun gave the field a bit of a start.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 05 Dec 12 23:40
Saoirse Dun is obviously a he.

The handicapper can change marks freely and he's often reassessed ratings where subsequent form may show a horse may have gotten a lenient rise. He draws the line at adjusting marks based on form in different disciplines. I imagine it is because, unlike England, you cannot run in Handicap chases without first running in novice chases here.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Dec 12 23:42
Tolmi not positive but Asked that question at Thurles and was told he has,we had a long discussion on this about the flat handicapper and there was a divergence of opinion on it.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 05 Dec 12 23:44
Wildman you're saying now three wins later that the handicapper did a poor job. Surely you can put a figure (even a ballpark one) on what you would have given him since you've obviously looked at the listowel race closely. It was the best of his three runs so it would be the one that you would be using for ratings purposes.
By:
Tolmi
When: 05 Dec 12 23:45
Not sure where the flat handicapper comes into it?I would be fairly certain that nothing achieved on the flat after getting a hurdle rating will alter the rating originally got.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 05 Dec 12 23:53
Allduckornodinner I posted about thevListowel race at the time and pointed out the race run by Saoirse Dun,the fact I missed the horse running in Naas is my own fault but not really relevant as my point is the handicapper did not review the race and just used the exact form.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 06 Dec 12 00:03
Even assuming that what you say it true about the handicapper is true that's not what I'm interested in. I'm asking what mark you would have given the horse after it? As far as I can see the handicapper was on a hiding to nothing with this horse given his recent exploits. He couldn't but give the horse a mark in the 80's in my view. Also in this case Philip Rothwell is the trainer, hardly a man renowned for laying out his horses.

There's tons of horses with similiar runs to Saoirse Dun in novice chases that are stone cold useless so it ain't that simple to accurately access them all on what is pretty limited evidence.
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