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10 May 12 13:22
Date Joined: 05 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 11,054 | Blogger: zilzal1's blog
Nearly time for this great eventCool
Pause Switch to Standard View Keen Leader-Eurovision
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Report itcanbedone May 10, 2012 4:45 PM BST
Obviously the great mans in-depth analysis goes far beyond merely liking a song, but the UK entry, Love Will Set You Free, beautifully performed by Engelbert Humperdinck is a true classic.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y May 10, 2012 4:47 PM BST
Engelbert Humperdinck - bloody heck that is some name Laugh
Report db1974 May 10, 2012 4:50 PM BST
Engelbert has the coffin draw though, what with being in Stall 1
Report itcanbedone May 10, 2012 5:11 PM BST
Keeping Engelbert on the straight and narrow for the week out there will be no easy task.  They don't call him The Hump for nothing.
Report frank60 May 10, 2012 6:54 PM BST
WILL BE interesting to see what K.L makes of the Russian verison of THE SPICE GIRLS.Laugh
Report RoyalAcademy May 11, 2012 8:40 AM BST
I thought Engelbert was in the coffin!
Report Newmanix May 11, 2012 11:33 AM BST
Eurovision.  The Special Olympics of Music.
Report db1974 May 11, 2012 12:04 PM BST
Here's my notes from last year:

1. France backed from 33/1 into 2/1 fav in the week leading up to final - finished 15th of 25 entries

2. Ireland backed from 40/1 into 5/1 2nd fav in the week leading up to final - finished 8th of 25

3. Azerbaijan (eventual winners) were absolutely smashed off the boards both during the show and just before voting started from 10/1 into 2/1 jt-favs with France

I think Jedward have an outside chance and 20/1 each-way should hopefully see some return

One bet I have done so far is the 13/8 from Stan James is for Ireland to get at least one 12-pointer in the final. Surely the great X-Factor-viewing British public will give the boys a maximum again, as they did last year. IMO this is nailed on.
Report Bassanio May 11, 2012 1:37 PM BST
I would not be slagging off your opinion in any way db, but most on here will be awaiting keen leader's opinion as he has proven time and again that his inside knowledge is a very valuable commodity when it comes to this competition.

Good luck with your bet though.
Report Bassanio May 11, 2012 1:40 PM BST
I myself have not got a clue as to who will win. Neither can I recall the betting patterns from last year.

If I ever bet on this, it is very small, as I usually watch the voting in the pub, but never endure the songs, but all information that will be on this thread should be useful.
Report Tony Fenton May 11, 2012 4:11 PM BST
Time for the Eurovision to get back into the closet.
Report Bassanio May 11, 2012 8:20 PM BST
The thread was titled Keen Leader Eurovision.

It was not titled calling Tony Fenton nor do I see that request in any of the posts.

If you don't like it, stay off the thread.
Report tobywong. May 11, 2012 8:45 PM BST
well said bassanio Devil
Report wildmanfromborneo May 11, 2012 9:55 PM BST
Strange Tobywong on a thread before an event but has yet to give his prediction,presumably that will happen in a forthight.
Report frank60 May 11, 2012 10:58 PM BST
i listened to most of the songs [hard going in some cases]  but a good bet i belive is SERBIA .. a song that grows on you....
Report BigRob1 May 21, 2012 6:25 PM BST
Is there no preview this year Cry
Report robo May 21, 2012 6:52 PM BST
More than likely for the relevant websites to be updated,when this is done Keen leader can pass on his gems and actually pretend that he has listened to every song and made a judgement.
Report Ozymandius May 21, 2012 7:05 PM BST
Keen Leader more than likely going through his 20th listen of each track as we speak.  Chewing over Eastern European maps, immigration trends, running orders, past voting records, youtube views, record sales etc. etc.

The Irish Forum stands ready for the pronouncement.

Come on Keen Leader, lets be having you.
Report robo May 21, 2012 7:20 PM BST
Exactly ozymandius,thats the kind of scenario that i have a little trouble swallowing.No person in their right mind would listen to a song in this rubbish not to mind have an opinion on the overall winner.
Report Ozymandius May 21, 2012 7:43 PM BST
You need to broaden your horizons, Robo.  Or failing that, just let others be.
Report Bassanio May 21, 2012 9:29 PM BST
I was under the impression that Keen Leader is related to someone that works with the event and that is how he gets the information?

I find it hard to believe he would actually listen to all the songs.
Report frank60 May 21, 2012 11:03 PM BST
IF Memory serves me Bassanio.. KL gives his opinion after the s/finals ...the guy has good judgement on such matters' ..i happen to have a very good Musical ear myself [its shaped like a Trumpet Laugh]  ....but for what its worth i cant see SWEEDEN loseing but 7/4 is not Very tempting  ...Serbia 14/1 e/w with PP 1ST 4  is good value in the event off the swedish singer veil catching in her Gob at the wrong time during her Performance .Whoops
Report Bassanio May 21, 2012 11:06 PM BST
He tips before the semi finals with recommended semi final bets and qualifying bets. His record has been brilliant over the past few years.
Report keen leader May 21, 2012 11:53 PM BST
keep it simple

have the house on russia at 1.4 or bigger to finish in the top ten, ought to be 1.01.

and if russia gets a late slot in the final it will take all the beating, so the 8/1 to 10/1 range at the moment is real each way thieving territory, though make sure you bet with a proper 1/4 1234 odds bookie.

the other cert at 1.3 is serbia to finish in the top ten.

i think sweden could be a very weak jolly, a bit like france 12 months ago, if it gets a poor draw in the final, it will be a 7/2+ shot on saturday.

ireland will get little or no votes in the balkans or within the ex soviet territory, and unless it gets a very late slot in the final, could be destined for a non top 8 finish.
Report BJG May 22, 2012 2:24 PM BST
Russia Shocked
Report BigRob1 May 22, 2012 6:40 PM BST
db1974 its a bit worrying that stan james never shortened the Ireland 1 or more maximun at 13/8.

I taught that price would'nt last long.
Report frank60 May 22, 2012 7:14 PM BST
Why the Shocked look BJK after all it is the Eurovision,   SRY about that Bassanio you are right , ...Have to agree with you K.L about Russia and Serba, they are more of a cert then Frankel was last sat.....and Slightly better odds as well,.... I had a good bet on Serbia at 14/1 e/w today with P.P [7/2 A PLACE... only just over 9/4 with betfair 1st 4] .. i hope your right about Sweeden K.L.  .. BUT i think its the the best song by a long way...but as we know the best song does,nt allways win the Eurovision.Happy
Report Dan Chipowski May 22, 2012 9:02 PM BST
Those grannies will go a long way!
Report timberman May 22, 2012 9:03 PM BST
Suffering jesus..after seen Russia there....What next...i'm on them regardless on your judgement Keen Leader..I Hope none of the Band drops dead before saturdays final!
Report Dan Chipowski May 22, 2012 9:08 PM BST
Report thefly10 May 22, 2012 9:27 PM BST
Mother of God.. Such tripe.
Report db1974 May 22, 2012 10:16 PM BST
LOL @ timberman
Report Monte Christo May 23, 2012 9:48 AM BST
I Hope none of the Band drops dead before saturdays final!

Laugh Very good timberman.

Fair play to Jedward on reaching the final but the Russian entry wtf is that all about.
Report punchestown May 23, 2012 11:07 AM BST
There was a time when the song mattered but those times vanished when they changed the voting system and basically allowed the general public (particularly Eastern Europe)to rip the pi$$ out of it every year.
Report db1974 May 23, 2012 2:44 PM BST
Jedward drawn 23 of 26 for Saturday
Report Dan Chipowski May 23, 2012 2:59 PM BST
Russia drawn 6? Not the best.
Report Ozymandius May 24, 2012 8:12 PM BST
Loving the Russkie grannies, hope the early draw doesn't derail them.

Not quite as taken with the Serbian effort.
Report I've 2 Moves (Fold and Reload) May 25, 2012 2:25 AM BST
Follower of the KL tips for 4/5yrs. As always, getting a great run for our money however tomorrow night turns out.
Russia & Serbia both 1/5 for Top 10 now.
Cheers KL!
Report bobbybocala May 25, 2012 10:20 AM BST
Great fan of keen leader myself.....would like to know how to subscribe to his tipping service.....and how much is it.....i have tried googling keen leader and also his real name declan phelan.....but i have had no luck at all.....Is there anybody who already like to get involved and not just the few freebies he throws to us here.....
Report donal May 25, 2012 1:16 PM BST
Norway are a solid each-way bet at 40/1. Similar singer and song to Swedish entry last year which came third, get on......
Report timberman May 25, 2012 6:04 PM BST
Sweden Whats your view on Sweden at this stage?..good thing or too short?
Report timberman May 25, 2012 6:05 PM BST
That question was meant to be adressed to The Great Man Himself..Keen Leader
Report BigRob1 May 25, 2012 9:04 PM BST
PP have UK to give Ireland 12 points at 2/5
Ladbrokes cut it from 8/11 to 8/15

The 13/8 any country is looking better by the day.
Report I've 2 Moves (Fold and Reload) May 25, 2012 9:24 PM BST
Another question for KL, if he should have a minute...

Why are Serbia (1.14) so much shorter than Russia (1.23) in Top 10 mkt now, even though Russkis are lower price than Serbs in all Winner, Top 3 & Top 4 books?
Report Steveirll May 25, 2012 10:44 PM BST
donal • May 25, 2012 1:16 PM BST
Norway are a solid each-way bet at 40/1. Similar singer and song to Swedish entry last year which came third, get on......

Shocked solid? only 4 places !! how are they solid.
Report Steveirll May 25, 2012 10:57 PM BST
I think TURKEY 5/4 top 10 is a great bet
Report keen leader May 25, 2012 11:10 PM BST
to answer....i would price both russia and serbia as 1.01 shots to finish in the top ten....absolutely no danger of my main bets not coming in. these 2 countries are certain of 5(serbia) and 8 (russia) 12 pointers. t, he one that captures the floating vote of the pair stands an outstanding chance of winning, with russias novelty act and europewide celebrity, i think they will amass votes across a range of countries and it may be enough to see them win.
for sweden or italy, to oblige, i figure that one or other will need to monopolise the top marks for the neutral mid and west and nordic countries, if they split the votes they kill one another. i still contend sweden are awful favs...i havent laid them, i have backed russia at between 8 and 14/1 over the last month and i am happy with my lot.
norway, zero chance of a top 4 finish, and hard to say if it will top ten, i doubt it. turkey has a helpful diaspora, i see it as a borderline 8th to 12th placer, so a toss up to top ten.

and jedward...between balkan, east mid europe, the med and soviet countries, about 19 of the 42 voting nations, they got a combined total of less than 12 votes last year, unless they crack that market this time, it will again be tough to get into the top ten for them.
Report Fayzer May 26, 2012 12:39 AM BST
Are you a Laois man KL? if so, and from reading your posts up and down I believe you are where do you hail from?
Report frank60 May 26, 2012 12:41 AM BST
to answer....i would price both russia and serbia as 1.01 shots to finish in the top ten....absolutely no danger of my main bets not coming in.... Now thats what i call confidence K.L.... My 2 bets on russia at 1.36 [top ten] and serbia 14/1e/w 1st 4 with PP on tuesday [only giving 1/5 e/w today] is looking good value. i AGREE about Sweden K.L 5/4 seems a very SKINNY price, while there song is the best one ..Location, Location, Location might be there undoing.Happy
Report donal May 26, 2012 2:11 AM BST
What I dont understand is how Russia could be so short if the voting is 50/50 jury and televoting.
Surely any music industry professional on a jury is not going to award Russia anything considering they are basically a joke act!

Sweden has by far the best song and would be worthy winners......pretty sure Ireland will give Sweden 12 and they will get very high scores from all western europe. They should win it.

Im going against Keen Leader.....Norway will deffo finish in the top 10 and I still think they are value at 40/1.
Report frank60 May 26, 2012 11:52 AM BST  [HD] Rona Nishliu-- Suus (Albania)..  wont win .. but what a singer.  i would love to hear the song in english.Plain
Report keen leader May 26, 2012 1:09 PM BST
donal, you are well wide of the mark suggesting russia will not score with the juries, select information says they were in the top two with the juries in their semi final..why you may ask, i suggest everyone wants to back a winner, and with all the publicity juries are looking favourable on the grannies, as few juries would want to be seen as giving nothing to country which is topping the televoting.if you think norway will top 4, this game is not for you.

one last wee wager, the 4/7 with ppower that uk get no 12 pointers is very fair, outside of malta i cannot see where they could unearth a top vote...lithuania are the jollies for the irish 12 voters, their diaspora have helped them to be the top telepollers in ireland since televoting arrived. nailed on for either the 10 or 12 points, unless the irish jury stymie them.
Report BigRob1 May 26, 2012 1:12 PM BST
Keen Leader no UK maximun is 1/1 with stan james
Report BigRob1 May 26, 2012 2:57 PM BST
Anyone who backed Ireland at 13/8 to get 1 or more maximin can now back
no maximun with PP at 15/8


Stan James have Ireland total points at over 105.5 5/6

Ladbrokes have Ireland total points at under 124.5 5/6

you lose a litle if only 1 wins but a  chance of hitting the the middle and collecting twice.
Report Millionaire_Morse May 26, 2012 6:07 PM BST
Report galwaygunner May 26, 2012 6:33 PM BST
what time will jedward be on
Report flushgordon1 May 26, 2012 6:34 PM BST
after being in ireland last week and listening to the country and western sh!te which was prevalent on a lot of stations,i quite believe you lot see this as cutting edge get down with it groovin toons,
may isay there has been prog rock,punk rock,new wave  and a dose of different stuff,
ffs for a country which produced rory gallaher ,horslips,thin lizzy,u2,slf,undertones,
WHY WHY WHY is there so much cuntry and western on your feckin radio stations.
Report flushgordon1 May 26, 2012 6:34 PM BST
Report kerryman May 26, 2012 9:48 PM BST
Flushgordan - try switching station

Is the presenter their version of Brian Dowling
Report Millionaire_Morse May 26, 2012 9:48 PM BST
LOL keen leader being made look a huge mug again
mug russia don't stand a chance pmsl
Report Millionaire_Morse May 26, 2012 9:59 PM BST
Report donal May 26, 2012 10:11 PM BST
Late money coming for the ****ing Russians........would be a joke of a result...
Report Millionaire_Morse May 26, 2012 10:47 PM BST
just like i told u mugs
sweden the winners
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods May 26, 2012 10:48 PM BST
Sweden awful favs Confused

The messiah may have lost his touch methinks
Report timberman May 26, 2012 11:14 PM BST
Well done Keen leader Main Bet Russia in top ten romps home at 1.4...2nd bet Serbia 1.33 also in the bag...backed both on here as you say didnt complicate things other than that...well Done KL...
Report donal May 26, 2012 11:29 PM BST
Completely off the mark with Norway...............but I was right with Sweden!!

Glad Mr Eurovision know-it-all was wrong with Sweden, "awful favourites" were well wrong!!!
Report frank60 May 26, 2012 11:47 PM BST
KL two naps were to back russia and serbia at around 1.4 to be in the top ten [both came in 2nd and 3rd]   he also said that sweden were week favs at the price but he did,nt lay them. The object OF the exercise is to show a profit ..this he did... ANYONE can pick a winner at EVENS BUT IN A FIELD OF 26 IT WAS A RISKY BET ..THATS THE POINT HE WAS MAKING. Happy
Report donal May 26, 2012 11:52 PM BST
Sweden were way bigger than Evens in the weeks leading up to the Eurovision...7/2 they were at stage.

Ok he did make a profit but Im just saying he was totally wrong about Sweden.....and its was clear he fancied Russia to win.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 26, 2012 11:56 PM BST
Thanks KL and well done, Jedward got their answer too
Report frank60 May 27, 2012 1:11 AM BST
The best price i ever saw about Sweden Donal was 7/4 , Your remark about KL was unnecessary[Glad Mr Eurovision know-it-all was wrong with Sweden, "awful favourites" were well wrong!!!] THE guy is asked for his opinion ever year on the forum and he obliged..the same way as he told you not to back Norway to save you money. THATS ALL M8
Report Tolmi May 27, 2012 2:46 AM BST
Interesting that the man who said Norway would "deffo" be placed in the top 10 is able to criticise someone who annually has given clear concise well reasoned and Profitable betting advice.Were Norway in the top 40????
Report moneypenny May 27, 2012 2:53 AM BST
keen leader may have been wrong in his overall view of things the last couple of years but yet again he has come through with his strong selections as always- hats off too the man imho
Report I've 2 Moves (Fold and Reload) May 27, 2012 11:01 AM BST
Thanks again, KL. Kerching :)
Report attitude adjuster May 27, 2012 2:01 PM BST
Sweden didn't just win...they p1ssed it.

That's why there's a bit of stick.
Report Ozymandius May 27, 2012 2:19 PM BST
Well done and thanks Keen Leader.
Report donal May 27, 2012 3:44 PM BST
I already admitted I was well off the mark with Norway.

But my argument with Keen Leader earlier was that Russia were not going to score well with the juries and that's what happened.

They got the public vote but the reason the juries were brought was to prevent a JOKE ACT from winning and that's what happened.

I'm just surprised an "expert" could have thought Russia would win!
Report ballaman68 May 27, 2012 6:09 PM BST
Donal you fool,

KL tipped two bets, serbia to make the top 10 and russia to make the top 10. they both came in what more do you want?

he also made some observations , but the fact remains that he is making it pay and hes passing that information on to us.

Cheers KL a profit for the 3rd year for me. Top tipping !!
Report ilikewavingatbuses May 29, 2012 6:01 PM BST
diff gravy as always. tells people to put their house on the 1.4 shot, says the serbs will oblige too, then advises a 'wee wager' on the UK not getting 12 points, all 3 comfortably go in and he gets crabbed by the lunatics on here for saying he didnt lay sweden but thought they were poor favs.

u couldnt make it up.

wd K.L, u gave a confident opinion and everything u actually advised as decent bets (1.01 shots iyo) won win their head in their chest to use a much over used racing cliche.

quite remarkable there will ALWAYS be knockers.
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