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mincer11
13 Feb 12 14:55
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Date Joined: 22 Feb 06
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Colm has announced that his star mare will head for the World Hurdle without an other run.Now i have never ever rated Murphy as much of a trainer even though he has had a good return from some Grade 1 horses,overall i find it a much of a muchness outfit.He has been lucky with a few once in a lifetime animals supplied by small owners,the likes of Big Zeb,Voler La Vedette,Brave Inca,Feathard Lady,Zaarito are extremely unlikely to be replaced.There is every likelihood that next year he wont have a horse of any consequence in his yard depending on how Quito De La Roque fares at Cheltenham if he does actually even get there.Back to voler la vedette and this decision is a real headscratcher,it has one horse to beat in the mares race,it would have been around 3 or 7/2,it will be 16/1 in the world hurdle and looks to have no realistic chance.Strange choice but not a surprising one.

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Replies: 201
By:
neill d
When: 13 Feb 12 15:13
strange to me as well, but maybe he feels that 3 miles on fastish ground might bring out the absolute best in her whereas he might see no possible scenario where he could beat Quevega at 2m4f. He probably thinks he has a faster horse than Nicholls or Henderson and if thinks drop he might land a big one, they absolutely crawled in the stayers last year.

that is the most plausable explanation I can come up with anyway. FWIW, I don't like the mares race and don't think it should be there along with a few other races and I'd admire the ambition of the owners.
By:
frank60
When: 13 Feb 12 15:47
Have to say i agree with both of you would be 4/6 to be placed in the mares race;7/2to be placed in the world hurdle[ more if mullins runs 3 or more horses in the world hurdle] but as neill d says  Murphy may have big plans but unless Big bucks is brought down in the world hurdle Voler has no chance.Confused
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 13 Feb 12 16:29
An incredible decision and wrong.We know Big Bucks is fit and well,we are not so certain about Quevega.
Quito De La Roque needs stoking throughout his races and needs bottomless ground,it would be a brave jockey who would ride him in England six month ban would follow.
By:
stevo1
When: 13 Feb 12 16:29
Think will to struggle to beat Oscar Whisky among others as well, strange choice.
By:
neill d
When: 13 Feb 12 16:32
Probably be her last season so that might explain part of it, they could go back to Presenting for another try, nothing she does on the track will add much to her value as a broodmare now I'd guess,hoping to still get evens quevega on the day, it will be some fastest finger first to get the 5 points in the tipping comp on that
By:
BJG
When: 13 Feb 12 16:41
Spot on mincer


No chance whatsoever of Evens Quevega on the day if VLV doesnt run - Will go off 2/5 imvho if Hurricane Fly wins as well and be very surprised if she's anythin better than 1/2 on the day
By:
yourlack
When: 13 Feb 12 16:52
5pts to win 2, ye id say that will make some difference to the comp alright.
By:
neill d
When: 13 Feb 12 20:05
I was projecting evens at the timeLaugh and competition notwithstanding at 2/5 she is probably still a '5 point bet'
By:
db1974
When: 13 Feb 12 21:46
Big Bucks might drift to evens now!

Wink
By:
Arklearkle
When: 13 Feb 12 22:49
Db we wish!
By:
neill d
When: 14 Feb 12 01:00
happened with both her and BB last season, if there are a few turn ups in the first 3 races you wouldn't know what could happen although i'll have to admit it was a pretty stupid comment on my part. We live in hope, big price for Quevega at the off means Fly got beat though I'd guess
By:
db1974
When: 14 Feb 12 11:17
That's true neill d

There'll be a lot of Sprinter Sacre / Hurricane Fly / Quevega trebles on Day 1

If the first 2 win, Quevega will be very short
By:
BI
When: 14 Feb 12 13:14
"He has been lucky with a few once in a lifetime animals supplied by small owners,the likes of Big Zeb,Voler La Vedette,Brave Inca,Feathard Lady,Zaarito"

That made me laugh. Lucky ha ha. 20 grade 1s? How many does Gordon Elliott have?

"Quito De La Roque......it would be a brave jockey who would ride him in England six month ban would follow."

Davy seemed to be able to ride him ok last season in Aintree
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 14 Feb 12 13:18
BI Have you not heard of the new whip rules?
By:
BI
When: 14 Feb 12 13:22
Ability will come into it more than the whip. Davy's well able to shovel on the coal without the whip. If the horse is good enough.
By:
mincer11
When: 14 Feb 12 13:47
BI its a bit premature to compare Elliott with Murphy,in time Elliott will have a better record than Murphy.He already is on a different planet to Murphy as regards being a racehorse trainer.The big difference between the two is that Elliott will know when they are going to win and Murphy wont.He has been absolutely poxed with horses from small owners,miracle horses who have never been replaced and never will be either.All these grade 1 winners are owned by people who have hardly had another horse with him since.Bigger owners have put their faith in Murphy and the results have been less than spectacular,apart from Quito De La Roque there isnt a horse in the yard.He never wins a bumper even though quite amazingly his horses are often supported in such contests.Admittedly his Cheltenham record is good but that is not really a gauge to a trainers ability as everybody knows.Mouse Morris,Murphy,Taaffe,Nolan,Tom Hogan even have had winners at the festival in recent years.Noel Meade has sruggled at Cheltenham for some unknown reason and the best Irish trainer by some considerable way  hasnt had a winner there in over 20 years even though he has sent fancied horses there year in year out.Overall Murphys record is less than awe inspiring,he has been lucky no question about that,for his sake hopefully his luck wont run out.
By:
BI
When: 14 Feb 12 14:33
Mincer, you do make me laugh. So you put success down to how many bumper winners you have or when you know you will win a middling handicap hurdle. How many of Willie's stable of bumper winners progress into Grade 1 winners? There are oceans of ways to judge a trainer. I think winning grade 1s with two mares and 10/11 year olds is pretty impressive. Their longevity is also the reason I would never back one in a bumper.....its a marathon, not a sprint. Refer to Willie's stable of bumper winners above.

Elliott may be the second coming but I was just pointing out his grade 1 record. You listed five horses below and I believe connections of four of them have other horses with him. Interestingly, it took Nicky Henderson a lifetime to win the Champion Hurdle/QM/Gold Cup and Nicholls hasn't done it yet. At the start of the season Quito looked like it would give Murphy a chance to emulate Henderson. Some going for a useless trainer but why don't we let O'Leary decide. He won't stick around you if you don't produce results.
By:
mincer11
When: 14 Feb 12 14:57
O Leary is hardly the barometer to judge anything by ,they have horses with plenty of ordinary trainers.Hourigan,Nolan,O Dwyer,Swan,Fenton,Taaffe, would hardly be the most prolific sextet that ever trained horses.As I said Cheltenham success is not proof positive that somebody can train.John Murphy won the Champion Chase,Taaffe won the Gold Cup,Hourigan the stayers hurdle,Henrietta won 3 gold cups,John Carr won the champion hurdle as did Michael Cunningham.
By:
BI
When: 14 Feb 12 15:13
So each of those trainers had one miracle horse....and Murphy had how many? Are you going to nominate him as the luckiest man in the world? Plenty of trainers ruin good horses but it takes top class trainers to keep a number of high class horses sweet for a number of years. VLV, Big Zeb, Brave Inca, Quito all have one thing in common. They all improved as they got older. That was by design and not luck.
By:
Brasco
When: 14 Feb 12 15:17
Giving Murphy no credit for the good horses that have been in his yard and putting the whole thing down to luck tells me that ye bluffers no fock all about the game.
By:
mincer11
When: 14 Feb 12 15:36
Horses are being campaigned more sparingly nowadays hence the reason why most trainers have a much better record with longivity than they once had.Most horses will get better as they get older,thats common sense.I always think that trainers who have a poor record with fancied horses and then have winners with unfancied ones always leave a bit to be desired.
By:
db1974
When: 14 Feb 12 15:37
A bit unfair to put Murphy's success down to pure luck

I would still think that Elliott will turn out to be the better trainer though. As every young trainer has to when starting out, he has shown what he can do in handicaps (he learned his trade from the master there anyway) and will start to get the better class of horse in the next 3-4 years and will be able to show what he can do in the better class races. How many runners has Elliott had in Grade 1s anyway? Can't be more than a handful.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 14 Feb 12 15:48
BI it's pointless getting involved in this argument. You know a lot more than anyone on here about Murphy and his set-up and you have had plenty of success with him. The opinions of those who have these preconceived notions and don't yield to reason shouldn't bother you. For what it's worth a blind man could see that Murphy is in the top 10 NH trainers in the country.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 14 Feb 12 15:59
Well able to get one ready for a gamble,Brave Inca landed two monster gambles in handicaps at Fairyhouse and Navan and more recently Glam Gerry was backed off the boards in a Leopardstown handicap chase at Christmas.
Allduckornodinner you are at it again,do you know everybody on here.
By:
mincer11
When: 14 Feb 12 16:07
Thank you allduckornodinner,you have helped my argument no end.Murphy is quite possibly in the top 10 trainers in the country,big deal.Its a small country so thats hardly a glowing recommendation.He trains about 20 odd winners a year,incapable of having 30.His average strike rate is around 12%.He is also absolutely clueless when it comes to riding arrangements,employed Barry Cash for Brave Inca,has now put Power up on Big Zeb,furthermore he put up Thornton on Big Zeb one year ignoring a few better Irish jockeys not to mention some English ones.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 14 Feb 12 16:14
When did Barry Cash ever ride a bad race on Brave Inca,beat War of Atrition a short head at Cheltenham also beat Royal Shakespeare a short head at Punchestown they unfairly blamed him for Brave Inca falling at Liverpool,a disloyal crew.
By:
mincer11
When: 14 Feb 12 16:16
Yes wildman,but brave inca started his upward curve with a 20 length bumper success at 25/1,my point exactly.As usual he hadnt a clue what he had,and to get a chmpion hurdler to win a handicap hurdle off 95 is hardly a training feat now is it.
By:
mincer11
When: 14 Feb 12 16:20
Well wildman the bould BI is one of those disloyal crew as you put it,the initials are a giveaway.Cash as has been subsequently proven was never a grade 1 jockey,the mistake made was ever putting him up in the first place.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 14 Feb 12 16:33
They managed to get Brave Inca beat in three maiden hurdles,i think Barry Cash was helpful in that regard so he had to be rewarded.
By:
Temlett
When: 14 Feb 12 16:43
He was rewarded by riding him to 2 handicap hurdle wins and 3 grade 1s and earned a significant income from this.

The decision to replace him for Punchestown was correct and vindicated when AP gave him a great tactical ride and did not simply try and burn off Harchibald, allowing the latter to cruise up after the last and win comfortably.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 14 Feb 12 16:58
Why was he replaced?
What did he do wrong?
By:
ReimerpYsatnaf
When: 14 Feb 12 17:03
He was replaced as AP McCoy is a better jockey, i'd imagine anyway.

It doesn't matter what he did or didn't do wrong. AP McCoy is a better jockey, became available and they booked him.

The owners of the horse pay the bills so they have the right to decide who they wish to ride their horse. You may not like it, others may not like it but that does not matter as you have no say in the matter and they have done nothing wrong.


He can't be that bad a trainer with his record. Also i'm amazed to find out by reading this thread how easy it is to train Cheltenham festival winners, think i'll start training a few myself seen as it's a piece of piss.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 14 Feb 12 17:08
They were disloyal,you may not value loyalty but i do.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 14 Feb 12 17:09
Wildman it would be widely known on here that BI is involved in the Winning Ways syndicates that have enjoyed plenty of success with Colm Murphy. That he has at various stages in the run up to the major store sales advertised on here that a new syndicate was in the process of being formed and invited any interested forumites to contact him would make it obvious enough to the normal man that he would be involved with Murphy. I hope that makes sense in your head now.

Mincer it's a tenuous enough argument that Murphy is a poor trainer because he doesn't have many bumper winners. He buys horses for the long term and doesn't have dozens of new horses arriving every year. Therefore he needs to look after them and pushing young horses to win bumpers isn't condusive to the vast majority of horses careers. It's much easier for Wille Mullins to grill his horses early because he knows that whether they make it to the top or not he has large owners bringing over scores of horses from France in addition to getting p2p winners from here.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 14 Feb 12 17:16
Allduckornodinner have you settled your differences with Jimeen?
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 14 Feb 12 17:17
One assumes Barry Cash was replaced by AP because he was on board when the horse suffered a string of defeats in his second season over hurdles. A notable feature was the horses ponderous hurdling. When AP took over after the horse fell in Aintree the change was instant. A match made in heaven. The horse also overturned several defeats by Macs Joy and established himself as comfortably better than that horse under AP. You can value loyalty all you like Wildman but the horse probably wouldn't have won a Champion Hurdle under Barry Cash.
By:
ReimerpYsatnaf
When: 14 Feb 12 17:18
Why i bothered replying to you is beyond me, back to the snide remarks are we then? Yes i am such a disloyal person!!

They did what they felt gave their horse the best chance. They where totally vindicated as he went on to win the Champion Hurdle.

I cannot see anything wrong with what they did, they just maximised their chances of victory by putting one of the best jockeys of all time on their horse.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 14 Feb 12 17:21
Where is the snide remark,you are over sensitive.
By:
ReimerpYsatnaf
When: 14 Feb 12 17:24
'you may not value loyality but i do' Think it's pretty clear what you where trying to imply.

At the end of the day connections of Brave Inca will be able to say for the rest of their lives they owned a Champion Hurdle winner. I doubt they give a toss if they upset you by what you class as being disloyal.

I've nowt else to say on the matter
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