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keen leader
16 Sep 11 22:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 145 | Blogger: keen leader's blog
it would appear that martin mcguinness is now in the field.

given that the rest of the runners are a bunch of dull boring forgetable characters, is it not a given that the bulk of the media attention will be on the derry man and unlike others in sinn fein, he is capable of bagging loads of floating votes, especially the ff ones. i would put him on a very good first preference, circa 30-35% and that might be enough to get him home.

higgins has never been a great vote puller, and fg picked the wrong candidate. mitchell would struggle to win a by election in dublin, even in these heady poll topping days for fg.

the indos have no chance, one assumes that norris will fail to get on the ballot, and despite positive polls, he in reality never had a ghosts chance, ireland is not that liberal yet.

so the game from now on, is mcguinness versus the combined higgins/mitchell vote.......i know loads of younger to middle aged who were not voting for either, and now if mcguinness runs i guess he will appeal.

political betting is tricky as events on a daily basis can be game changers.

in this election the public may play the man, not the ball(sf which remain unpalatable to most)..m mcg has excelled in his role in stormont, and this could be the greatest modern stunt of all for sf, to get him into the aras for the 1916 100 year celebrations...in some ways he deserves the position much more than the other candidates.

now 4/1 with pp, no liquidity here, i make him an even money shot to win and my hunch is he will win, the thoughts on any of the others as president is sickening.

in the big picture, the citizens of the roi now get one big test....the unionists did not like the idea of power sharing with sf and m mcg as deputy, they bit their tongues and got on with it and i dont see much marxist sf ideology in stormont......if a former head of the ira at the top at stormont is now not a big deal, then surely the notion that the same guy with his past ought be acceptable down south?...or have most of the south/roi been fake green/united ireland all along, this election and the debates along the way may answer that question.
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Report MALAY October 25, 2011 12:02 AM BST
No chance
Report paddletoe October 25, 2011 12:03 AM BST
You can dress someone in a nice suit but it cant give them any more integrity and honour than they were born with.

What is obscene about Gallagher being 72 hours away from being President is its people like him who have caused all the problems we have today and now he is trying to win such high office by saying he is the man to solve them.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle October 25, 2011 12:03 AM BST
Not if the army Anti SG have their way.

He be hounded out of office, after the boys get a dig into his financial dealing and his association with Real IRALaugh
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle October 25, 2011 12:04 AM BST
The Problem is that he is dishonest and therefore a liar and man with no integrity
Report Viva Pataca October 25, 2011 12:09 AM BST
Hugh Morgan !! http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1356555/Gerry-Adams-fuel-smuggler-Sinn-Fein-leader-rents-election-office-firm-owned-convicted-criminal.html

This is the man Irish Betfair forumites are willing to take the word of ahead of Sean Gallagher. Well sometimes one wonders......
Report Barney Rock October 25, 2011 12:12 AM BST
The look on that Traitors face was priceless :) "smugglers" "brown envelopes"  "not that i recall" text book Fianna Fail
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle October 25, 2011 12:12 AM BST
How could you take Sean Gallagher's word he lied on National TV and then reversed his position to make himself even worse. The man as Omar in the Wire famously quoted

"Joe you been so devious you just gone and caught yourself up in a web"
Report Viva Pataca October 25, 2011 12:14 AM BST
What was the lie Ruby?
Report MALAY October 25, 2011 12:17 AM BST
he lied at first about the incident, then then said it happened when the man was being produced, did you watch the programme ?
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle October 25, 2011 12:18 AM BST
He said he had no recollection of the any cheque. Then he said oh yes maybe but i was not aware and then finally oh yes but it had Fianna Fail Money written on it.

He said he left the party in 2009 yet only resigned this year and then said he was a grassroots member but was actually a key member of the internal structure of the part of fundraising.

He was in contact with a member of the Real IRA to raise for Funds for Fianna Fail a convicted criminal.

Mr Gallagher has lied about his past with Fianna Fail. He lies are so bad he can't stop. A bad case of verbal diarrohea.
Report kavvie October 25, 2011 12:18 AM BST
viva he got caught...nixon like..it was total and frankly embarrasing..
Report Viva Pataca October 25, 2011 12:22 AM BST
He did not recieve 5,000Eu from the fuel smuggler / tax evader - that is what he said.
Report MCKENNA October 25, 2011 12:23 AM BST
Said he might have received a cheque, then seemed to say "well it was payable to FF".
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle October 25, 2011 12:23 AM BST
That isn't the issue as i see it. He was a fundraiser for Fianna Fail a blatant lie if we use all his previous comments are to go by
Report MALAY October 25, 2011 12:23 AM BST
he did receive 5000 euro from the fuel smuggler for his close friends, a play on words,
Report Barney Rock October 25, 2011 12:29 AM BST
Get out and vote, keep this Traitor and all he stands for out, Ireland deserves better.
Report Viva Pataca October 25, 2011 12:29 AM BST
Well I would have no problem with anybody fundraising for any political party. He had no influence in the decisions the country's leaders made over the last 5/6 years, and I believe that is supposed to be the crux of the problem as regards, Gallagher's assiocation with FF.
Report Vubiant October 25, 2011 12:30 AM BST
Another Fianna Fail fraud outed.
Grin
Report Viva Pataca October 25, 2011 12:31 AM BST
Barney Rock has labelled Sean Gallagher a "traitor". Strong words. Is Barney even able to define the word "traitor"? Probably not. Intelligent forumite.
Report Mordin. October 25, 2011 12:32 AM BST
Gallagher tarred and feathered live on National Television by Sinn Fein, welcome to Dragons Den. Great TV!!
Report MALAY October 25, 2011 12:33 AM BST
Mordin it was absolutely brilliant TV.
Report Viva Pataca October 25, 2011 12:36 AM BST
Gallagher tarred and feathered live on National Television by Sinn Fein, welcome to Dragons Den. Great TV!!

Indeed Mordin. Come back to me Thursday when the electorate have spoken. And see then who fares best - Gallagher or "Sinn Fein".
Report MALAY October 25, 2011 12:39 AM BST
Dont think McGuiness will win but hes done his bit tonight keeping the dragons den charlatan out.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle October 25, 2011 12:39 AM BST
Gallagher wants to get rid of The National Anthem and modernise it to include entrepeneur's and businessmen and fundraiser instead
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle October 25, 2011 12:42 AM BST
Anyways that was a fun night. Goodnight everybody!
Report GANT007 October 25, 2011 12:43 AM BST
If his bandits can dig up some dirt on Michael D........McGuiness might come with a late rattle.
Any man that can run a home, raise a family and have a holiday home on £300 stg a week deserves a crack at the job.
Report Mordin. October 25, 2011 12:43 AM BST
The accountant in the audience also gave Gallagher his fill of it over the company accounts. Poor Gallagher! It was humiliating for the poor lad.
Report MALAY October 25, 2011 12:45 AM BST
I suppose i'd be seething myself if i'd bet the fundraiser at big odds too ?

Incidentally was the cheque in white or brown envelope ?
Report revedesivola October 25, 2011 12:45 AM BST
if gallagher decided he was going to stay at home scratching his b@lls tonight rather than going to the debate hed have been better off
Report Viva Pataca October 25, 2011 12:45 AM BST
Pay McGuinness 300Eu a week or whatever he wants, and you will get a President worth 300Eu a week.

Better to give someone like Sean Gallagher the proper presidental salary, and provide the taxpayer (the person who pays his salary) with some value, or as Gallagher himself calls it, a return on investment.
Report revedesivola October 25, 2011 12:50 AM BST
taxpayer...fianna fail...value? eh no thanks
Report MALAY October 25, 2011 12:52 AM BST
i wonder if wee bertie helped get him his job in dragons den ?
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 25, 2011 12:55 AM BST
gallagher exposed tonight!! dont know how anyone could vote for him on that performance tonight!!

going to peoples houses he 'didnt know' with envelopes?

trying to talk his way out of the 89k 'loan', against a woman who knew exactly what she was talking about and he was spouting absolute nonsense, shambolic is correct!! the man is a liar and thats it!!

few credible candidates at all!
Report revedesivola October 25, 2011 12:58 AM BST
mickey d the only credible one left, il be voting for him provided hes still gracing us with his presence come voting time
Report spurs to buy big October 25, 2011 1:21 AM BST
mickey d owes mmg a large drink ...gallagher should be gone after this ...mitchell a cranky disaster ...norris had a great night but probably too late to do much more than save his deposit ..the much malighned pat was excellent ...mdh to win but martin could top the poll
Report paddletoe October 25, 2011 1:52 AM BST
I must say i dont know very much about most of the candidates. However, i like to think i can spot a bad un and it would be obscene if Gallagher got the gig.

Really cant be having Norris and Dana by all accounts seems more conservative than Sarah Palin.

I dont think my own views that Martin Mc Guinness deserves the presidency and would make a very good president will be shared by enough people. Fair enough.

Higgins seems a bit old and lacking in any strong opinions but at least he seems harmless.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan October 25, 2011 11:03 AM BST
Tweet to radio 1 this morning - (about the McGuinness / Gallagher confrontation last night).....

"Martin certainly knows how to deliver a knee capping !" Shocked
Report Catch Me ifyoucan October 25, 2011 11:05 AM BST
'Irish Sport' at it's best Laugh
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle October 25, 2011 12:05 PM BST
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VwidQilUWPs#!

How can we not vote Michael D compared to the master of the dark arts
Report jadesdillemma October 25, 2011 12:21 PM BST
how the fxck can any person on ere or any field sport person vote 4 michael d was he not former vice chairman of icabs the organisation that would stop all hunting, greyhound racing, coursing,point 2 point,horse racing etc.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle October 25, 2011 12:28 PM BST
Laugh but he didn't and it didn'tCool
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 25, 2011 12:30 PM BST
he goes the galways races every year!!
Report Mr Mischief October 25, 2011 3:56 PM BST
MDH is a gentleman of the Turf
Report workrider October 25, 2011 4:02 PM BST
if the americans see that ..... he'll have every american company pulling out of ireland...this fellow is anti everything american ....cant be good for jobs imo...
Report mincer11 October 25, 2011 4:18 PM BST
Would you ever get out of here wonky
Report db1974 October 25, 2011 4:20 PM BST
Dustin should have run this year - he would have got in!
Report workrider October 25, 2011 4:26 PM BST
obsessed.....Laugh
Report Vubiant October 25, 2011 4:27 PM BST
Here's the amount of sh1ts the USA business community couldn't give about who is the tenant in the Irish Presidential Palace .......2 ( Two).
Report mincer11 October 25, 2011 4:31 PM BST
Exactly vubiant,about as much as they care who wins the Airtricity League.
Report workrider October 25, 2011 4:33 PM BST
i feel you miss read the american businessman vubiant ....they want the help they give this country highlighted ...its simply good business....
Report mincer11 October 25, 2011 4:39 PM BST
You are out of your depth here wonks,there are some very intelligent people on this thread.Your grasp of the English language is atrocious.Stick to the smileys,Rovers,etc as its about your level.
Report workrider October 25, 2011 4:40 PM BST
obsessed...Laugh
Report Rocketfingers October 25, 2011 4:41 PM BST
My head hurts with these posts !

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Report mincer11 October 25, 2011 4:42 PM BST
Thats more like it wonks,you are alot more comfortable with the smileys.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle October 25, 2011 4:44 PM BST
MDH is Anti Rendition thru Shannon as we should all be if we are not to be considered hypocrites on being a Neutral Country which we are not.
Report workrider October 25, 2011 4:47 PM BST
have you had a word with your shrink mincer....for god sake do as quickly as possible .....getting to know how you let me into your head every minute of everyday , will make him a fortune.....Laugh obsessed.....
Report scoobyknows October 25, 2011 4:47 PM BST
One gentleman commented on twitter that voting for gallagher because you are angry at the government,is like sawing your balls off because your trousers are too tight..!
Report workrider October 25, 2011 4:49 PM BST
how come when russia was at war with afganistan and refulled at shannon ...no left wingers protested ..have you ever asked yourself that question....it never fails to amaze me .....
Report mincer11 October 25, 2011 4:51 PM BST
Could you please make a bit of sense with even one post wonks,you are really embarassing yourself and your family now.
Report workrider October 25, 2011 4:52 PM BST
Laugh obsessed ...
Report mincer11 October 25, 2011 4:52 PM BST
Theres alot of stuff that never fails to amaze me wonky,most of your posts in fact for starters.
Report Rocketfingers October 25, 2011 4:53 PM BST
Why on earth would Russia be refulling in Shannon if they were fighting a war with Afganistan? LaughLaughLaugh

Anyway to be fair it's Anti Rendition flights the boys were talking about not refueling planes.
Report workrider October 25, 2011 4:55 PM BST
mincer11     25 Oct 11 15:49 
Fat head,thick neck,big ego and absolutely clueless
thats the nice mincer re paul nicholls over on the racing forum...
who needs friends when mincers on your side.....Laugh
Report workrider October 25, 2011 4:58 PM BST
russia planes were refueling at shanonn during their war with afganistan ...of course they never brought 1 afgani prisoner though shannon in that 10 year war.....Laugh
Report Distant View October 25, 2011 6:07 PM BST
Afghanistan bordered the old Soviet Union.
Why would Soviet planes fly across to the far end of the far side of Western Europe, to refuel planes on the way to a bordering country?
Report tobywong. October 25, 2011 6:13 PM BST
Laugh
Report paddletoe October 25, 2011 6:52 PM BST
Big difference in the betting on who will get most first preference votes. Laddies go 4/5 the bagman Gallagher while Paddies make the lying crook a 2/5 shot.
Report moneypenny October 25, 2011 7:16 PM BST
I think your mixing up Russia with USA workrider Shocked
Report Vubiant October 25, 2011 7:34 PM BST
Easy error . Laugh
Report mincer11 October 25, 2011 8:18 PM BST
LOL at wonky,that is the funniest thing I have ever seen on this forum,and he said it with such authority as well.I'm ashamed to say warfare and geography wouldn't be high on my list so I didn't know the difference.Now I'm not a bit surprised the tool is a million miles off the mark,.when isn't he?.Wonky ,please take my advice as it would save you embarrassing yourself each time,the general knowledge and intelligent threads are not for you ,the Rovers and LOI ones are more your cup of tea
Report Blackwater October 25, 2011 9:23 PM BST
Torrent of money coming for MDH now.

He was 2/5 last week and we may headed back there.
Report workrider October 25, 2011 10:40 PM BST
least we forget ..the former ussr held sway over most of eastern europe ...bringing misery to millions of europeans....their puttets in many countrys ruining the live of millions ..just look at the division of germany for instance...torture most foul perpetrated against so many ....of course they never brought ANYONE into shannon from ANY of their satillite countries ..as pure as the driven snow were the old ussr  ....ask any left winger .....Laugh
Report workrider October 25, 2011 10:40 PM BST
puppets even ...Laugh
Report Wallflower October 25, 2011 10:47 PM BST
Blackwater 25 Oct 11 21:23 
Torrent of money coming for MDH now.

He was 2/5 last week and we may headed back there.

--------------------------------------------------------

Ok, my views of Sean Gallagher well-known on this forum (spoofer, liar, unqualified).

But this is betting forum not a political one (though its hard to keep one's peacePlain). The bookies haven't a clue - and as events (like polls) occur the price completely over-reacts. 2/5 is madness - I'll predict around 1.9-2.0 the pair on Friday. Problem is the 40% who were going for Gallagher - are made-up of hardcore FF, those who don't like Higgins, those who will decide this is a SF/media smear campaign against their man. He needs to lose serious following to be caught - I think Higgins could catch him be but its going to be very very close, all the way down to last count, McGuinnness's transfers. Wouldn't even rule out big swings even on Friday. Not for the faint-herated.
Report mincer11 October 25, 2011 11:17 PM BST
There must have been cheap diesel in Shannon to say it was worth coming all the way from Russia to get juice to go into Afghanistan.This is classic wonky,the funniest ever.He is brilliant,he really is.What on gods name had Russia got to do with the division of Germany ?,maybe they used Russian blocks to build the Berlin wall.Give it a break wonks please,I keep telling you,stick to the rovers threads
Report Vubiant October 25, 2011 11:25 PM BST
Way I see it -Higgins should edge it .
If the polls are more or less accurate Gallagher was about 38/39 % ( 40 seems unlikely)
It would be amazing if even 1 in 10 of that 38/9 didn't change ( even allowing for the pre-hominid nature of that cohort ) so that could bring him down to 34/5.
Higgins should gain and clock in around 28/9 %. The transfers should bridge the gap -as Gallagher's transfer attractiveness should be dimluted too.
There may be a few minor surges among the others but hardly anything to alter the current scenario.
Report Wallflower October 25, 2011 11:43 PM BST
Not far away from you in that view Vubiant. Agree, if Higgins does do it he edges it.

I don't get the 4/9 PP, 1.6 on here for Higgins. Way off.
Report Wallflower October 25, 2011 11:45 PM BST
My issue is I should be all over the Gallagher price here - but I'm having a moral crisisLaughLaugh
Report revedesivola October 25, 2011 11:52 PM BST
vincent browne is currently tying to smoke gallagher out of the burrow hes been hiding inLaugh
Report Barney Rock October 26, 2011 12:00 AM BST
The three Seans, Fitzpatrick, Quinn, Gallagher.

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

My money is on Higgins fingers crossed.
Report Vubiant October 26, 2011 12:10 AM BST
There's something demonic about that name 'Sean' ...
I think of such  twisted nutters as Seán South and Seán Mac Stiofáin ...Sad
Report Kelly October 26, 2011 11:31 AM BST
Little interest in this episode , except that the world's perception of us ( and the world views us South and North as Ireland ) means the result affects us all .  Particularly given the high profile world media coverage our last 2 Presidents have enjoyed ( deservedly ) .

Trust the electorate down South have their sensible heads on when it comes to filling out the ballot papers , if not could be the final nail in an increasingly worrying coffin .
Report Toto82 October 26, 2011 11:47 AM BST
The bookies are not clueless, they set their opening prices and alter them as th emoney comes in and its clear that the money has been pouring in for MDH this week (and last week).  I'll be laying MDH if he goes any lower than 1.4
Report Barney Rock October 26, 2011 10:57 PM BST
Where is Viva Pataca ??? Is he in hiding with Sean Gallagher or what ??
Report Blackwater October 27, 2011 11:43 PM BST
Early exit polls reportedly give Gallagher a 5-point lead on the first count.

In making Michael Dee 1/4, it looks likes the market has over-reacted again.
Report paddletoe October 27, 2011 11:49 PM BST
I am not expert on transfer voting but i would have thought Gallagher would have needed a very big first count lead.
Report Blackwater October 27, 2011 11:54 PM BST
True, 5 points probably wouldn't be enough.

But the exit poll will have a margin-of-error and transfer patterns are very hard to call.

If Gallagher realy does lead by 5 on the first count, he would be maybe a 6/4-2/1 shot probably.
Report steeringjobnap October 28, 2011 9:45 AM BST
Good analysis, BW.

However, if he is really on 5 pct clear on FP, then his chances of winning are surely greater than 33-40%.

Personally, I'd want at least 4/1 now before backing him.

MDH will be very transfer friendly' he even admitted himself that being 5% behind on the first count
gave him an incredible chance of winning.
Report irishro October 28, 2011 10:49 AM BST
All over bar the counting it seems.
"With all 7 boxes tallied in Sean Gallagher's home town of Blackrock, Co Louth the predictions are that Michael D Higgins is beating him 2:1."
Report GANT007 October 28, 2011 11:25 AM BST
Lets hope Michael D. leaves his nose out of RURAL IRELAND...........As a greyhound/horse  owner/breeder I could not vote for this man..........
Report reb October 28, 2011 2:12 PM BST
Could you vote for him as a person who cares about the welfare of humanity and animals ?
Report Vubiant October 28, 2011 2:29 PM BST
Lots of deer to feed in the park .Grin
Report Joseph of Arimathea October 29, 2011 4:54 AM BST
Haven't been on the site for a while but really enjoyed the debate. Magnificent contributions from very informed people who are obviously no fools and who know their facts. Loved the comments and input from Malay - Thank you. I had to laugh at the contributor (Viva Pataca) who came across as a very tired & weary spin doctor for Seanie Gallagher and his Fianna Fail masters. It so reassuring to know that there is a sizable proportion of people on this island that will not have the wool pulled over their eyes. My faith has been restored.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan October 29, 2011 2:46 PM BST
Jo,

It so reassuring to know that there is a sizable proportion of people on this island that will not have the wool pulled over their eyes. My faith has been restored.

You can thank M.McG.

"Martin certainly knows how to deliver a knee capping !"
Report Blackwater October 29, 2011 6:34 PM BST
It was a great market to trade while it lasted.

Lots of volatility and plenty of action around a dozen different candidates.

Pesronal highlight - laying Norris at 2/1, because I figured Ireland would never elect a baldy, camp old intellectual as president.

Personal lowlight - laying Gallagher at 99/1. So thank you Martin McGuinness. Others might think of you as a murderer, but I'll always remember you for that two hundred quid you saved me.

Hope everyone finished in front.
Report ACE JACK DOUBLE SUITED October 29, 2011 11:00 PM BST
I see my first post on this got deleted by the bf police from earlier this morning....so i wont call him any names this time. 504,964 people gave Gallagher a first preference vote...I find this unbelievable..
Report dlarssonf October 29, 2011 11:09 PM BST
nearly as unbelievable as all the t wats who voted fianna FAIL in the by election
Report Blackwater October 30, 2011 12:07 AM BST
Now that it's over and we're free not to talk our own books...

I couldn't agree more with the last two comments. And anyone who wants a scary nightmare for Halloween can reflect on what might have happened had Martin McGuinness not intervened in the way that he did.

And for all the happy clappy stuff today, no one I spoke to gave Higgins a positive vote. It was all about him being the least bad amongst a miserable selection of candidates.
Report Giant Strides October 30, 2011 7:13 AM GMT
He was never going to win but I`m amazed at how poorly McGuinness did around the border counties tbh. 
And congrats to Gallagher for getting so close to the finishing line before the extent of his FF past was revealed. 
This country is in many ways a political vacuum. There are some good politicians but no worthy leaders of note.
Report soapp November 11, 2011 6:55 PM GMT
Looking at the ceremony on the box today, the only big shot I didn't see there was Bertie. That's not to say he wasn't there but the camera was never on him when I was watching it. Most of the other former Teeshee got their mugs on screen.
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