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keen leader
16 Sep 11 22:12
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Date Joined: 05 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 634 | Blogger: keen leader's blog
it would appear that martin mcguinness is now in the field.

given that the rest of the runners are a bunch of dull boring forgetable characters, is it not a given that the bulk of the media attention will be on the derry man and unlike others in sinn fein, he is capable of bagging loads of floating votes, especially the ff ones. i would put him on a very good first preference, circa 30-35% and that might be enough to get him home.

higgins has never been a great vote puller, and fg picked the wrong candidate. mitchell would struggle to win a by election in dublin, even in these heady poll topping days for fg.

the indos have no chance, one assumes that norris will fail to get on the ballot, and despite positive polls, he in reality never had a ghosts chance, ireland is not that liberal yet.

so the game from now on, is mcguinness versus the combined higgins/mitchell vote.......i know loads of younger to middle aged who were not voting for either, and now if mcguinness runs i guess he will appeal.

political betting is tricky as events on a daily basis can be game changers.

in this election the public may play the man, not the ball(sf which remain unpalatable to most)..m mcg has excelled in his role in stormont, and this could be the greatest modern stunt of all for sf, to get him into the aras for the 1916 100 year celebrations...in some ways he deserves the position much more than the other candidates.

now 4/1 with pp, no liquidity here, i make him an even money shot to win and my hunch is he will win, the thoughts on any of the others as president is sickening.

in the big picture, the citizens of the roi now get one big test....the unionists did not like the idea of power sharing with sf and m mcg as deputy, they bit their tongues and got on with it and i dont see much marxist sf ideology in stormont......if a former head of the ira at the top at stormont is now not a big deal, then surely the notion that the same guy with his past ought be acceptable down south?...or have most of the south/roi been fake green/united ireland all along, this election and the debates along the way may answer that question.

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Replies: 420
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 16 Sep 11 22:26
Great post Keen Leader, i can only speak for myself i am no fan of SF but McGuinness i always thought (rightly or wrongly) was the best of them. I have to say i like none of the others in the race, i could be swayed to vote for McGuinness. Although i would hate to see Adams and MaryLou celebrating anything.
By:
timberman
When: 16 Sep 11 22:32
From what i can see theres only 2 candidates now An elderly Michael D Higgins or Martin Mcguiness( a man who even Ian Paisley has managed to accept)........
By:
irish_guy_13
When: 16 Sep 11 22:40
Michael D.Higgins  8/11 

Gay Mitchell  3/1 

Martin McGuinness  9/2 

David Norris  11/1 

Mary Davis  14/1 

Sean Gallagher  16/1 

Labhras O Murchu  50/1 

with pp.


norris worth a shot @11/1  just incase he does re-enter.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 16 Sep 11 22:55
Think McGuiness will have my vote.

If Paisley can accept him I certainly can't say he doesn't deserve a shot. He is reaching out so much in the past few years it has been quite a interesting yet surprising from the former IRA man.

I willing to look forward rather than back. Such is the lack of any credible opposition he could nearly win it. Sinn Fein are going to try and take over FF ground and this is a smart move IMO. Hopefully the DUP will accept this. Robinson owes McGuiness who stood by him after the affair etc last year with his wife.

9/2 seems to big, could be favorite in 2 weeks for me
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 16 Sep 11 22:57
Also I think this is the closest we may ever get to a United Ireland vision that so many of are ROI people rant and rave about. FF supporters should be swayed if their ideology means anything other than British Bashing that so many of them spout.
By:
Pull Hard
When: 16 Sep 11 23:03
If you do a bit of searching on the lads site M McG is a 13/2 shot
By:
keen leader
When: 16 Sep 11 23:14
tell you what pull hard, you go and have a monkey on that 13/2, i have put up a monkey to lay at 6.6 here ,,,you get a free arb, i cannot be fairer
By:
thecookiemonster
When: 16 Sep 11 23:20
Martin will have my vote
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 16 Sep 11 23:28
I'll vote for Martin McGuinness.
By:
frank60
When: 16 Sep 11 23:52
YOUR record on the forum specks for itself K. L ANYONE FOLLOWING YOU TIPS ARE WELL AHEAD ; I will have a bet on Martin McG for that reason only; but i have to be honest its a bet i wont mind loseing, thanks for the post M8.
By:
irish_guy_13
When: 17 Sep 11 00:22
Michael D.Higgins  10/11 

Gay Mitchell  10/3 

David Norris  7/2 

Martin McGuinness  9/2 

Mary Davis  14/1 

Sean Gallagher  16/1 

Labhras O Murchu  50/1 

with pp now
By:
Sligored
When: 17 Sep 11 00:48
not a fan keen - but backed him on your advice as you have never let the punter down on here - took 13/2 with lads
By:
DistressedPostRace
When: 17 Sep 11 01:01
McGuinness a generally decent bloke but no chance of winning. Remember how many people read the Sindo. A rare cul de sac for keen leader.
By:
Blackwater
When: 17 Sep 11 01:13
To become President a candidate must eventually get over 50% of the vote.

No Sinn Fein nominee is going to do that. McGuinness in particular hasn't a hope because of his IRA background.

It seems to me that his entry into the race helps Higgins and Mitchell. It creates a reason for Fine Gael voters to turn out. And Higgins will almost certainly be the main beneficiary of transfers from SF.

The polls still give Norris a chance, but how does he get nominated? That 7/2 with PP looks ridiculous.

If I had to have a bet tonight, I'd lay McGuinness and possibly back Mitchell.
By:
Madam-Editor
When: 17 Sep 11 03:00
KL,
Please forgive the un-timely hour of this post.

Sorry no time to read any/all of the above (after g&t's) BUT

Please consider the 'Other' gender when one is about to vote.

p.s. will revert if replies are warranted Love
p.p.s. on our way Hogan Stand !
By:
Giant Strides
When: 17 Sep 11 07:19
I would have voted for Gerry Adams. I think he could have won.
I will not vote for McGuinness. I think the people of the south have far less empathy with him than Adams.
I don`t think he can win.
By:
itcanbedone
When: 17 Sep 11 09:11
If Martin McGuinness wins I will be handing back my passport.
By:
MALAY
When: 17 Sep 11 09:18
Why should an ex IRA man not be president, it was the IRA who gained independence, Connolly, Pearse are the main train stations in Dublin.

Hopefully he wont need the west brit vote.
By:
Santry
When: 17 Sep 11 09:30
Martin McGuinness a good candidate for Sinn Fein and should go very close. A big winner from his entry to the race may be Gay Mitchell ,as dull as dishwater,but will now surely benefit from the sizeable anti republican sector of society who will be anybody but McGuinness. Just watch the Tony O Reillys bulldogs and the Daily Mail get their teeth into McGuinness now. But still think McGuinness a decent bet at 9/2.
By:
timberman
When: 17 Sep 11 09:31
Martin Mcguiness is a pillar of society compared to that criminal Bertie Ahern!..iF peter robinson is able to work with McGuiness its a poor reflection of people down south if we cant move on...after all Mcguiness was the main man convincing the less peace thinking republicans to accept a ceasefire...
By:
scoobyknows
When: 17 Sep 11 11:31
Lord Muck of Londonderry is nothing but a Traitor and a Tout,he has no chance..!
By:
GANT007
When: 17 Sep 11 11:35
The whole thing is only a joke now.......put the names in a hat and draw one out on the news some night.
By:
scoobyknows
When: 17 Sep 11 11:48
www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/10363585-accused-british-spy-mcguinness-running-for-president
By:
zipifried
When: 17 Sep 11 12:04
i Haven't a clue who any of the other candidates are but i will vote in the free state for the 1st time and support MMG. One of the greatest leaders ever to come out of this country, helped turn what was a horrid life of discrimination and fear for a large part of the north into what it is becoming today, free from Orange rule forever.
By:
insideinfo
When: 17 Sep 11 12:18
LOL @ zipifried.Martin has accepted the status quo in the North and for that i applaud him and wish him well!
By:
zipifried
When: 17 Sep 11 12:25
As long as you are consistent Insideinfo and accept what the status quo becomes in the coming years and what important new laws will be established by the biggest political party in the island of Ireland for the good of us all, then i applaud you and wish you well.
By:
BraveInca2006.
When: 17 Sep 11 12:45
I look forward to Itcanbedone handing his passport back because he is unwilling to accept the democractic wishes of the Irish people.

You sound like the type of child who takes their football home when the game starts going against them.
By:
itcanbedone
When: 17 Sep 11 12:52
Does anyone know if it is possible to renounce citizenship?  What do I do if I don't qualify for citizenship of any other country [:(]
By:
timberman
When: 17 Sep 11 13:24
Thought you were british insideinfo?
By:
Anaglogs Daughter
When: 17 Sep 11 17:05
Asked boyles for £20 @9/2 got laid €1
By:
Kriskin
When: 17 Sep 11 17:12
Some boys on here u wouldn't think were true Irish men.  Itcanbedone do u know ur history?
By:
Anaglogs Daughter
When: 17 Sep 11 17:17
My mother 81 bless her and has her full faculties, when told M.McG is running for President said, she wouldn't vote for him. I said "We have to let the past go, we don't have to forget it but we have to move on". She said "Nothing to do with the past". We've a Northern president in at the moment i think it should be a southern one now". She said, "It should be rotated around provinces".  So old people have a funny way about thinking Happy.  I just looked it up the last 3 presidents where Ulster, Connaught, Leinster, maybe Munster should get a go this time Silly
By:
Blackwater
When: 17 Sep 11 17:21
Keen Leader's suggestion about having a monkey on seemed a bit optimistic.

Anaglogs, you should drive around twenty Boyle's shops and put one euro on in each.
By:
Kriskin
When: 17 Sep 11 17:24
Anaglog - tell ur mother were one island.  No difference in North & South
By:
freddiek
When: 17 Sep 11 19:43
ONE euro!

LaughLaughLaughLaugh


Boils need to phuck right off
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 17 Sep 11 20:14
Why would Martin McGuinness want the job,he has a powerful job at the moment.
By:
Blackwater
When: 17 Sep 11 21:52
He doesn't want the job and won't get it.

Sinn Fein polled less than 10% at the general election. They are not about to win the presidency six months later.

The only reason McGuinness is running is to build on that 10% figure and to try and position SF as the main opposition party in the State.

I cannot for the life of me figure out why people think he's value at 5/1.
By:
Anaglogs Daughter
When: 17 Sep 11 21:55
Coz you can eat value.
By:
frank60
When: 17 Sep 11 22:13
See what your post  caused K.L Laugh
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