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29 Jul 11 00:01
Date Joined: 09 Feb 11
| Topic/replies: 933 | Blogger: TradeFair's blog
Have to put my hands up here. Apologies to anyone who took the 18/1 Obligation. I was going to put him in 10/1 but changed by mind and decided on 8/1. Unfortunately I never deleted the digit "one" and it went up on the website as 18/1 at 17.28. After getting filled in our liability trigger system automatically went 11/1 at 19.03. It was only at 19.21that  one of my colleagues realised the mistake. All bets placed before 19.21 will come under the palpable error rule and will be settled at the correct price of 8/1. Customers will also have the option to void the bet.
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Report TradeFair July 30, 2011 9:25 PM BST
Did I ever give you back that pony?
Report steeringjobnap August 1, 2011 8:34 PM BST
Lads the horse was beaten so it doesn't matter whether they got the 18/1 or 4/1.

An absolutely incredible comment from some-one claiming to be a compiler.

FFS, would you lay me 1.05 that tomorrow isn't a Bank Holiday??
Report TradeFair August 1, 2011 8:36 PM BST
You number crunchers get caught up in this whole value bubble. The horse got beat. I'd love a William Hill shop full of the like of you.
Report steeringjobnap August 1, 2011 8:39 PM BST
Like the shop in Ballybricken?

Bit the dust with an attitude like that, boy...
Report TradeFair August 1, 2011 8:41 PM BST
It's not an attitude it's a personal mantra...
Report steeringjobnap August 1, 2011 8:46 PM BST
Ok then boy.

Riddle me this:-

the following question was regularly posed to odds' compiling job interviewees in the UK in the 1980's.

In a 3 runner race between Cram, Coe & Ovett, how would you price each of the three up?

Interested to know your thoughts...
Report TradeFair August 1, 2011 8:57 PM BST
Tough call:

At the 800:  11/8 Coe, 7/4 Cram, 9/4 Ovett

At the 1600: 13/8 Cram, 13/8 Coe, 2/1 Ovett
Report steeringjobnap August 1, 2011 9:05 PM BST
I'd take your arm off on both those Ovett prices.

The answer required was [á la Malcolm Boyle's books]:-

- "true" price each of three was 2/1 [natch];
- Ovett's desire always made him the one to swerve as a layer [didn't always mean he won, I know];
- any price about him from 5/4 up to 7/4 was accepted as the "true" answer; BECAUSE
- don't want to lay him "too short", as you'd then get picked off with value prices about the other

That was the response that got the applicant the role.

Do you still want me in wan of your shops?
Report TradeFair August 1, 2011 9:08 PM BST
But that's matter of opinion. If I had lazily put up 7/4 7/4 7/4 you would have been impressed? Not much of a test is it.
Report steeringjobnap August 1, 2011 9:11 PM BST
I'd still have smacked the 7/4 about Ovett, tbh.

But you miss the point - the thought process allied to swerving the one selection that
sharks would want to be on [at the price] was missing.

The above example struck me as apt when you stated laying an 8/1 shot at 19.0 was acceptable, merely
because the horse got the road.
Report TradeFair August 1, 2011 9:13 PM BST
But it is a matter of opinion that Ovett is the one not to lay. I'm sure with a bit of research anyone could argue laying any of the three at 7/4 or lower.
Report steeringjobnap August 1, 2011 9:14 PM BST
a matter of opinion that Ovett at the right price.

can't really emphasise that the last point any more.
Report TradeFair August 1, 2011 9:16 PM BST
Yes but the fact remains that he's probably inferior to the other two at both distances. I'd not saying your wrong for a second but just that it's an opinion and can't be proved either way.
Report mincer11 August 1, 2011 10:41 PM BST
Nobody could price this hypothetical race,that is a garbage example.In all propabilty trade fair couldn't price a penny sweet,most odds compilers would be the same.If they were any good then it's unlikely they would be pricing the races,they would be too busy exploiting the existing compilers
Report lapsy pa August 1, 2011 11:05 PM BST
Great runners the three of them,Cram as far as i remember was just slightly after the other two.Think if the 3 were priced up equally Ovett would definitely would be punters choice(not saying shrewd) for the simple fact he had a bit of charisma ie the i love you, the other two were and not faulting them fairly soulless.
Report TradeFair August 2, 2011 3:35 AM BST
In all propabilty trade fair couldn't price a penny sweet,most odds compilers would be the same.If they were any good then it's unlikely they would be pricing the races,they would be too busy exploiting the existing compilers

I can price anything. Whether I get it right is not based on opinion.
Report jasonk178. August 2, 2011 10:23 AM BST
how come hills are always last up with irish prices then?? you are totally clueless imo.
Report TradeFair August 2, 2011 1:38 PM BST
Every company has a different strategy. I'd be more inclined to say shame on everyone for letting Bet365 control the early Irish prices. Everyone else is copy and pasting.
Report punchestown August 2, 2011 1:54 PM BST
Split personality thread?
Report TradeFair August 2, 2011 2:07 PM BST
Who said that?

You did.

Report mincer11 August 2, 2011 4:10 PM BST
Now I never priced a race in my life trade fair but I would be willing to pit my wits against you at some stage.I was thinking maybe a race meeting on Sunday where the decs are out 48 hours in advance but there are no betfair or bookmaker markets formed to help anybody.Try next Sunday for example,I would be willing to price every race at curragh or downpatrick or even both if you would do same,that is before anybody else prices the races.Looking forward to hearing from you trade fair
Report TradeFair August 2, 2011 4:19 PM BST
Name it and you're on.
Report mincer11 August 3, 2011 8:16 AM BST
Next sundays six race card in downpatrick,the fields should be small so it shouldnt be too hard.The decs will be out on friday morning at 10.30 and we will both have till lunchtime saturday to formulate our tissues.We will agree a time to post our prices at exactly the same time so there is no chance of anybody altering theirs.That sound ok to you?
Report slickster August 3, 2011 10:39 AM BST
my money's on mincer...
Report TradeFair August 3, 2011 11:18 AM BST
How do you declare a winner? Who is closet to SP? Who is shortest about the winner? Who is closet to the morning prices? It's a bit like how long is a piece of string.
Report mincer11 August 3, 2011 12:21 PM BST
Closest to sp is the best way of declaring a winner,morning prices can vary alot from firm to firm,while the other method is far too subjective.Closest to sp is the one where there can be no arguments.
Report Bigwillystyle August 3, 2011 1:18 PM BST
Mincer11 is a 1/3 shot.
Report TradeFair August 3, 2011 5:10 PM BST
I don't care how we do it but predicting a horse's SP is not really that exciting a contest.
Report neill d August 3, 2011 5:12 PM BST
Think it is a bit of a pseudo science myself and working out who won is going to be especially tedious.
Report TradeFair August 3, 2011 5:14 PM BST
Exactly Neil, It proves very little. I'd rather we both do a tissue and than have a bet on each others prices, say £100 per race. That would involve far more skill. I reckon I would lay him the dead ones in every race at value prices.
Report neill d August 3, 2011 5:34 PM BST
Probably fairer yep, the problem with predicting sps as well, what if the horse has got decent form, but isn't off, we've all seen 6/1 shots drift like bargepoles on Irish racecourses
Report mincer11 August 4, 2011 9:57 AM BST
A two year old child could tell who was the better compiler after one minute,by looking at thir attempts and the sp's, which after all are the prices that horses are sent off after the whole world has had a chance to get involved in the market.Any idiot could bet to 150% knowing the sp will be propably 110,therefore he is going to be shorter about most horses in every race,and in all probability the winner as well.Thats not odds compiling,it may be for the clowns that work with these 2 bob firms who lay nothing,but its risk free stuff,the kind of thing they like.As for the 100 pound cyberbet,how exactly does the winner seek remuneration?.If you dont feel you are up to it then i can understand that,but please dont make lame excuses
Report mincer11 August 5, 2011 9:42 AM BST
You seem to be gone very quite trade fair,hope everything is ok in the trading office.
Report TradeFair August 5, 2011 10:55 AM BST
Everything is  fine. It's just I fell asleep reading your last post. Just woke up now.
Report mincer11 August 5, 2011 11:12 AM BST
So that means we are going to see an exhibition of your compiling talents or have you any confidence in your ability ?Suppose that normally when ye make a bollixx of it,you have the traders making a decision to save ye,this way there would be no hiding place.
Report TradeFair August 5, 2011 11:36 AM BST
Hiding place from what? No matter what prices I put up I can't win because everyone on the forum has made their mind up about me, yourself included.
Report workrider August 5, 2011 11:50 AM BST
i think you do yourself an injustice tradefair might not be the most popular guy on here ...but to say the forum has made its decision and we have decided against you is in all fairness a bit of a cop out...
take this motormouth on and show us what your made of ....
then and only then will the forum judge you.....
let battle commence...
Report mincer11 August 5, 2011 12:21 PM BST
Thats one of the most sensible retorts ever produced by workrider,hats off to the said gentleman.Im going to be more than fair here,i will allow worky to be the sole judge and will not open my mouth when he gives his verdict,win or lose.I cant be any fairer than that
Report TradeFair August 5, 2011 12:58 PM BST
Right what races are we doing?
Report mincer11 August 5, 2011 1:12 PM BST
The full card at downpatrick, 6 races,not big fields either.What time would suit you to post them up?,tomorrow morning won't suit me unfortunately ,but tonight or lunchtime saturday is fine
Report TradeFair August 5, 2011 1:16 PM BST
Report mincer11 August 5, 2011 1:19 PM BST
Fair play trade fair,what time?
Report TradeFair August 5, 2011 1:19 PM BST
Later the better
Report mincer11 August 5, 2011 1:24 PM BST
10 o clock ok?
Report TradeFair August 5, 2011 1:30 PM BST
I'm thinking 11
Report mincer11 August 5, 2011 2:52 PM BST
Ok 11 it is so,both of us post their prices at exactly 11 o clock.I shall be watching sky sports news so the second that comes on at 11 then i will press the button.Thats fair enough
Report neill d August 5, 2011 3:08 PM BST
Are both of you full time gamblers?, just out of interest? if ye don't want to anwser that's grand
Report mincer11 August 5, 2011 3:16 PM BST
Trade fair is a proffesional odds compiler neill,i'm a small time punter who bets when he has money which isnt all of the time.I win and i lose but i would think i dont do much damage over the year,in fact i know i dont because i havent got the discretionary income to be a big loser.I do have a job with unusual working hours and get quite a bit of free time.Always fancied a go at odds compiling,maybe i will make a balls of it,but what harm.To answer your question neill,I am not a full time gambler,nothing like it.
Report neill d August 5, 2011 3:17 PM BST
Like me so mincer, was just wondering, cheers for the frankness of your reply
Report Princesse D'Anjou August 5, 2011 3:27 PM BST
Good luck both - look forward to it [:)]
Report neill d August 5, 2011 3:31 PM BST
I lost a serious amount for me a few years ago, 4 figures like, never been quite the same since, I definitely now only bet within my parameters. There was one in particular that sickened me, it would have gotten me out of a right hole, Psycho in the Pierse Hurdle if anyone remembers, there was a real lack of control on my part after that. The numers I bet in then, I just wouldn't even consider it now, I bet about 1/10th of the amounts I used to.

I've roled back the years with a right good bet on Spain to win the Euros however, win or lose, I thought the price was wrong so even if they get turned over, I won't feel so bad about it.

I also think Gatepost looks a big price at the weekend and will probably have a bit of a cut off of that, Tyrone to do in Dublin at 6/4 looks value as well as many have said.

I no longer listen to 'word' for horses either, loads of that where I come from. A fella who I went to school with used to follow the money for Charlie Byrnes horses when he was clueless imo, he seemed to have a line into the stable because the ones he was backing seemed to shorten, it used to make up nearly all his betting, anyway he got absolutely cleaned, gave it up about 2 1/2 years ago, since then Byrnes seems to have gotten a lot shrewder, this fella hardly even follows the game any more.
Report workrider August 5, 2011 4:52 PM BST
there are better judges than me on here i'll leave the final judgment to them if you dont mind robo....
Report benny_ROBS_roy August 5, 2011 5:08 PM BST
trade fair ringing every man and his dog to get assistance in pricing up the races imo
Report punchestown August 5, 2011 5:12 PM BST
neil d,there'll be plenty more in trouble with betting  if the Irish Stewards don't cop themselves on to the goings on in Irish racing which seems to have got so much worse since the advent of this place.
Report neill d August 5, 2011 5:23 PM BST
indeed punchestown
Report TradeFair August 5, 2011 10:05 PM BST
Apologies - I have been distracted with work issues this evening and I am unable to post the tissue for Downpatrick at the agreed time.

Will have to sort something out next week if Mincer is still on for it?
Report thegalwayman August 5, 2011 10:50 PM BST
Predictable enough really.
Report mincer11 August 5, 2011 10:59 PM BST
Downpatrick sunday
2.20        2.50      3.20         3.50        4.20       4.50

1.8/1       1.2/7     1.10/1       1.5/2       1.7/2      1.20/1
2.2/1       2.3/1     2.5/1        2.12/1      2.13/2     2.20/1
3.4/1       3.25/1    3.5/1        3.8/1       3.25/1     3.10/1
4.33/1      4.50/1    4.16/1       4.4/1       4.25/1     4.6/1
5.25/1                5.12/1       5.6/1       5.6/1      5.7/1
6.20/1                6.3/1        6.7/1       6.6/1      6.6/1
7.6/1                 7.10/1       7.9/2       7.7/1      7.33/1
8.20/1                8.20/1       8.33/1      8.11/1     8.8/1
9.7/2                 9.12/1       9.50/1      9.25/1     9.33/1
10.25/1              10.8/1       10.33/1     10.20/1    10.33/1
                     11.20/1                  11.33/1    11.5/4
                     12.14/1                  12.12/1    12.16/1
Report mincer11 August 5, 2011 11:03 PM BST
Didnt realise trade fair had been too busy to post,my prices are a little all over the place but they shouldnt be too hard to decipher
Report da fallon factor August 5, 2011 11:11 PM BST
at least you didnt chicken out
Report Bigwillystyle August 5, 2011 11:14 PM BST
One massive mistake in your pricing mincer11
Report insideinfo August 5, 2011 11:16 PM BST
Tradefair is a cowardly piece of welching dirt,quite fitting that he works for H1lls.
Report workrider August 5, 2011 11:17 PM BST
oh ..a row about to break between littleman and the butcher ..cant wait....
Report wildmanfromborneo August 5, 2011 11:19 PM BST
You are not giving yourself much wriggle room,116% in the first and 119% in the third ,Paddy Wilmott would love to do business with you.
Report mincer11 August 5, 2011 11:55 PM BST
I am sure that my prices are littered with errors bigwillystyle,so its up to anybody who spots a glaring mistake to nail his or her colours to the mast and point out each error that they think they see.Pointing them out beforehand is what needs to be done,there is no good pointing them out afterwards.Wildman,I would expect them to bet to those percentages in those races,they probably will bet to a slightly greater percentage in the bumper.When they put the markets up here I will match the first 4 people that disagree with these to lose 500 euro per horse,I can't be fairer than that
Report Bigwillystyle August 6, 2011 12:01 AM BST
Mincer only mistake i see is Shernaz in second last race.  10/1 shot at the most.  No other mistakes to my eyes.
Report mincer11 August 6, 2011 12:19 AM BST
Well bigwillystyle ,fair is fair ,and I will stick to my word ,if you want I shall lay it to lose a monkey at my price.When the Market opens,put up the bet and I will match you,best of luck
Report TradeFair August 6, 2011 12:41 AM BST
Atlanta Falcon will be 4/7 and Elliott's will be dead in the bumper. Knowing the SP of every horses is merely top class guessing.
Report sirwinalot August 6, 2011 1:18 AM BST
tradefair, if a platoon of spineless men had spent a decade in conclave scribing the epitome of a spineless riposte to mincer's they wouldn't be within a greedy spread of you.

Christ lad, what are you at?
Report dkelly69 August 6, 2011 1:36 AM BST
Fair Play mincer. A good friend of mine always says
its easy to spot a rick but try price a race off a
blank page. Havent checked out the card yet coz theres
too much drinking to be done between now and sunday morning
but cant wait to compare
prices to see how you get on :-)
Report Bigwillystyle August 6, 2011 9:05 AM BST
Mincer11 it's d only mistake I spotted. It's a fair effort. Not going to take up your kind offer. If it was tradefair I would. Much easier for him to price it now he has yours for comparrison. Tradefair you are a joke.
Report mincer11 August 6, 2011 9:39 AM BST
That is very decent of you bigwilly,because you are in fact 100% correct.25/1 is a blatant error for Shernaz,not trying to make excuses but when i was pricing it up off irish racing .com,i'm pretty certain that either it wasnt jocked up or somebody else was down to ride it,i'm pretty sure Russell wasnt booked up.If i had noticed the jockey booking then i would have been a good bit shorter,probably half the price.To be honest i still wouldnt fancy it,but you are correct,win or lose the price was wrong.
Tradefair,you have dissapointed me by not posting your prices,i will give you the benefit of the doubt about being too busy.We seem to have a difference of opinion concerning Atlanta Falcon and his chances,you make him 4/7,well i thought a bit shorter,so i am willing to put up 1000 at 1/2 on here later,and you can feel free to match up all or any part of it.Maybe your team at Hills will row in with you when they hear that you can lay a 4/7 shot at 1/2,that should be music to their ears
Report workrider August 6, 2011 9:43 AM BST
hey littleman ..surely a propunter like yourself MUST avail himself of that error by mincer....or are you REALLY a propunter ...Laugh
Report Bigwillystyle August 6, 2011 10:43 AM BST
Wonky i would if it was the bookies but this is a bit of craic and mincer11 was decent enough to offer the bet unlike the bookies who would hide behind their rules.
Report workrider August 6, 2011 11:32 AM BST
Laugh fook me a pro with a soft heart're going down mate  going down ..a guy offers you free money and you turn it down ..defo not a propunter .....Shocked
Report neill d August 6, 2011 3:05 PM BST
That is an excellent effort in fairness.
Report mincer11 August 6, 2011 5:01 PM BST
Trade fair,that grand has been up all day for Atlanta Falcon and it remains untouched.Unfortunately my bank has been weakened so I am going to take it back down as ammunition is required for Kilbeggan.Should you wish me to place the bet again,please just say so,otherwise I will forget it.
Report BJG August 7, 2011 2:51 PM BST
Date Joined: 09 Feb 11
Add contact | Send message
When: 06 Aug 11 00:41
Date Joined: 09 Feb 11
| Topic/replies: 620 | Blogger: TradeFair's blog
Atlanta Falcon will be 4/7


Good effort with ur prices mincer, spot on
Report TradeFair August 7, 2011 2:59 PM BST
Like I keep saying, judging the SP is just top class guessing. As a compiler I'd have made this a match and been looking to get Atlanta Falcon in the book away from Perth. There is no way he was entitled to be that short on his Kilarney run. Does that make me an idiot? On this forum, probably.
Report benny_ROBS_roy August 7, 2011 3:25 PM BST
yes, you are an idiot
Report TradeFair August 7, 2011 3:34 PM BST
And you're opinion counts for what exactly?
Report Temlett August 7, 2011 3:35 PM BST
Whatever it counts for, it is shared by most, if not all of the forum.
Report benny_ROBS_roy August 7, 2011 3:44 PM BST
you asked a question, i simply gave an honest answer
Report TradeFair August 7, 2011 3:46 PM BST
Yes and I pointed that out earlier in the thread.
Report jasonk178. August 7, 2011 4:12 PM BST
yup! tradefair you are a first class idiot! every post you make only confirms this further.
Report TradeFair August 7, 2011 4:29 PM BST
And every post the likes of you make confirms you are bitter people who can't take a joke or see a wind up even when it's right in front of your eyes.
Report jasonk178. August 7, 2011 5:03 PM BST
"atlanta falcon will be 4/7 and elliots will be dead in the bumper" LMFAO!
Report TradeFair August 7, 2011 5:09 PM BST
Yeah dead as in the market, you can't get on. i.e a certainty. You boys don't know the trading room expressions. I got the whole card spot on and William Hills cleaned up.
Report wildmanfromborneo August 7, 2011 7:36 PM BST
Mincer seemed to do a great job on his odds so well done but even if he made a mess of it,it didnt matter because his opponent didnt put up any odds.His excuse was he was too busy yet he hasnt stopped posting on here,he has actually turned Mincer into the good guy some achievement,not so sure Mincer will like his new found role.
Report mincer11 August 7, 2011 7:57 PM BST
Thank you wildman for those kind words,to be brutally honest I thought I did poorly,quite a way out in lots of races,but it was an experience all the same.It is difficult enough to price certain people's horses as you can appreciate,and having no guide makes life more difficult for anybody attempting it.I'm a bit confused regarding trade fair,not sure whether he is or ever was an odds compiler,or whether he was stringing me along all the time and never had a notion of ever pricing the races in question.For the record I actually went a bigger price 5 out of the 6 winners so therefore I have alot to learn,in other words if a firm took my prices this morning,they would have been torn asunder .Trade fairs mob filled the bag today so maybe even in his absence he should be declared the winner
Report lapsy pa August 7, 2011 8:22 PM BST
Mincer, fair play you put yourself in the spotlight, not sure with sp but i checked them on oddschecker this morning and thought you made a good fist of it.Also your keenness to lay atlantic falcon was a plus.
On a general note think its a good exercise in whatever sport to have a go at pricing it up yourself rather than being swayed by looking at the betting first.
Report TradeFair August 7, 2011 8:58 PM BST
I was the one keen to lay Atlanta Falcon. You lot would not know the formbook if it smacked you in the face.
Report lapsy pa August 7, 2011 9:09 PM BST
To be very fair mincer put a grand up at 1/2 for a while,actions not words.
Report mincer11 August 7, 2011 9:50 PM BST
Trade Fair is correct about that,he made the horse a 4/7 chance,I dont know whether he laid it or not,if he did then well done to him.Saying that it's reasonable to assume that he didn't fancy the last favourite even though he has said otherwise post race.
Report Gearoid VI August 7, 2011 9:54 PM BST
Look lads this whole thread was a wind up. It was fun for a while.
Report murphyjust. August 7, 2011 10:35 PM BST
haven't got involved in this but f*ck me tradefair is some tool....he should be forever embarassed to post here again. Well done mincer, tough ask that and u bakced it up with dough as well
Report bobbybocala August 8, 2011 1:27 PM BST
mincer you havent a breeze boy..if a fella was following you he`d end up on the piss for a month..
Report mincer11 August 8, 2011 1:56 PM BST
If somebody was following me bawby then he wouldnt be able to go the piss for a night,let alone a month.That is unless they had a friendly barman that allowed them to drink on tic.On a different note,its high time you apologised to wildmanfromborneo,we all do a bit of slagging from time to time on here but your posts were way out of line,there was no need for such viciousness,none at all.
Report bobbybocala August 8, 2011 2:37 PM BST
mincer the wildpr1ck has  the same chance of getting an apology from bobby as frog wards son has of getting a birthday card from padraig nally...
Report mincer11 August 8, 2011 2:49 PM BST
Nally couldnt send Wards son a birthday card as he wouldnt be sure where to send it,and if he did,would Ward be able to read it?.Also was Wards son,his brother,his father,his cousin,his uncle,who knows?,at least there is only one wildman,its time to bury the hatchet.
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