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keen leader
16 Jun 11 21:56
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 634 | Blogger: keen leader's blog
before i mention the wagers, i want to say that i am not ramping as there is no liquidity here on the markets i am pinpointing and because paddypows lead on the gaa prices all the others follow and if you cannot get on with team tallaght then plenty of friendly independents will give you their prices, as is routine.

to pay for your summer the medium of attention is saturday afternoons game, the hurling qualifier between cork and laois in portlaoise.

i believe, and the sharpest gaa punter i know agrees, that the bookies led by team ppower have completely got the line on this game wrong...they say 10/11 cork minus 11, their call....we are certain the line should be 20 points.
some of you know i have very good knowledge of both camps and because the line is so wrong not alone can you clean up on the various handicaps, you can win big on the side markets as well as they are linked to the 11 point median line.

laois are dire, they managed to beat an appalling clare in the league and that is the sole reason i can see the bookies with the low handicap. laois' defeat by down in the league is a fairer reflection of their standing...in a nutshell they ran limerick close 2 years ago when bro philip was at the helm, since he left the standard has dropped and the subs bench against 14 man antrim was a farce.

since the defeat to antrim 3 weeks ago, training, if you call it that, has been a shambles...they had 2 challenge games since....one they lost to waterford u21s and had to "borrow"  a player from the deise to make the 15 ...and last weekend 13 of this weeks named laois team scrapped a 1 pt win over a below strength kilkenny intermediate team...furthermore they are not physically fit for real championship action and with no fitness work in the past month.
cork on the otherhand are in great nick and gave tipp a good run for their money.

a good guide is a challenge game the 2 sides played on may 8th where a full strength laois side lost 3-18 to 0-13, with cork emptying the bench early in the 2nd half.
according to one of the laois hurlers i spoke to yesterday, he wants to avoid injury so as not to interfere with his travel plans to the USA..that is the prevailing attitude in the laois camp, whereas i gather cork are keen to clock up some goals, and they dont face brendan cummins this time.

not even bad weather will stop a hammering, i think a score line in the ballpark of 5-25 to 1-10 is on the cards maybe more severe as  cork may go on the rampage in the closing stages when their superior fitness starts to tell.
the last 3 decent county teams laois faced in a knockout game at o moore park in the past 5/6 years were tipp(won by about 28pts), galway won by 20plus 2 years ago and offaly won by 15 or 16....

so to make your summer killing, assemble a bank of 30 points and play as follows on ppower markets and priced as of now thursday night.

5pts cork -13pts at 7/5
4pts cork -16pts at 11/4
2pts cork -18pts at 9/2

9pts  cork to score over 27 1/2 pts score tally at 5/6

4pts cork to score over 2 1/2 goals at 6/4
2pts cork to score over 3 1/2 goals at 7/2
2pts cork to score over 4 1/2 goals at 8/1
2pts cork to score over 5 1/2 goals at 14/1.

i am writing this in advance of fridays racing post tips, so i am not influenced by any other source except my inside knowledge of the laois camp.

when cork play offaly in the next round the line will be 7-9 pts and offaly would hammer laois by the same, so feast on the prices served up this weekend.
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Report thefly10 June 17, 2011 12:48 AM BST
Great stuff Keen Leader!
Report joe9000 June 17, 2011 1:45 AM BST
Sorry to change the subject altogether, but i seen something on the Hills site that caught my eye. They have a page of Joe Canning specials and have him at 6/4 to get an all-star, seems on the big side to me. Anyone got an opinion on him this year?
Report Tony Fenton June 17, 2011 11:48 AM BST
Joe's aarse seems a bit on the big side to me.
Report Dan Chipowski June 17, 2011 11:54 AM BST
I see the Racing Post's GAA section today tips up 'goal shy' Cork to score under 27.5pts. Shocked
Report workrider June 17, 2011 12:05 PM BST
nasty nasty boy toby.....Laugh
Report tobywong. June 17, 2011 12:11 PM BST
needed to be said workrider
Report GANT007 June 17, 2011 12:19 PM BST
Cork could have had a few goals against Tipp and Laois as we all know aint in that league.......-11 well worth a cut.

Big day for Joe on Saturday and on the frees by all accounts.
Report scoobyknows June 17, 2011 12:42 PM BST
That Cork side is poor,Cooper is an average junior club hurler..!
Report thefly10 June 17, 2011 9:44 PM BST
On Galway v Dublin, I think the Dubs will be brought back down to earth on Sunday. Galway need to show big things if they are to lay a marker as All Ireland contenders. Its the first round of the championship and McIntyre is still unsure about what his best side is, I think this is a good thing. Canning will be the difference.
Report Tony Fenton June 18, 2011 2:14 PM BST
It's on at 7 tonight not Sunday just in case you want to watch it thefly.
Report tobywong. June 18, 2011 2:16 PM BST
interesting game , looking fwd to it
Report Tony Fenton June 18, 2011 2:30 PM BST
Yeah be kind and say 2 unreliable championship teams. Could go either way. Hope Plunkett rips them apart with his pace when he gets on.
Report The Icchantika June 18, 2011 3:00 PM BST
what is your bet tobes?
Report GANT007 June 18, 2011 3:25 PM BST
Cork will bang in 5 or more goals.............
Report Millionaire_Morse June 18, 2011 3:29 PM BST
LAOIS JUST SCORED A GOAL.
IT'S ALL GOING PEAR SHAPED FOR U MUGS LOL LOL LOL.
THEY THINK IT'S ALL OVER. IT IS NOW.
Report kiddo112 June 18, 2011 3:29 PM BST
2-6 to 1-7 to Cork

Cork need to get the finger out
Report GANT007 June 18, 2011 3:32 PM BST
3-6 to 1-7.........
Report stayonyourfeet June 18, 2011 3:35 PM BST
3-8 1-8 now
Report GANT007 June 18, 2011 3:39 PM BST
Cork 7 points up at halftime........3-9 to 1-8..........they should kick on from here.
Report Dan Chipowski June 18, 2011 4:06 PM BST
4-13 to 1-10 now. Cool

Bets being landed by the second. Need to drive it on now Silly
Report Dan Chipowski June 18, 2011 4:10 PM BST
5-13 now Love
Report limestone lad June 18, 2011 4:11 PM BST
now 6 goals mighty keen leader that was 14/1
Report GANT007 June 18, 2011 4:11 PM BST
6-15 to 1-10.........all over now.
Report redbait June 18, 2011 4:11 PM BST
This is a very good thread!
Report Tolmi June 18, 2011 4:11 PM BST
Might go down in history as the best piece of betting advice ever written on this forum.
Report GANT007 June 18, 2011 4:12 PM BST
7-15........go and collect lads....
Report BJG June 18, 2011 4:12 PM BST
Im sick i didnt go as far as over 5.5

Had some on over 4.5 tho so wont complain

Eccellent shout KL Cool
Report Dan Chipowski June 18, 2011 4:12 PM BST
Agreed entirely, Tolmi.

Mighty stuff.
Report redbait June 18, 2011 4:13 PM BST
A mate of mine in Paddy Powers has told me the traders are currently having a meeting about whether to withhold payment of bets due to the suspicious level of support for Cork in all markets............
Report scoobyknows June 18, 2011 4:13 PM BST
Top Tipping..! Well Done..!
Report Dan Chipowski June 18, 2011 4:15 PM BST
Wouldn't be at all surprised if plenty of Laoismen will be a lot richer tonight. Laugh
Report BJG June 18, 2011 4:15 PM BST
All bets gonna come in ShockedDevilCool
Report The Icchantika June 18, 2011 4:16 PM BST
Very well played.
Report Recession Buster June 18, 2011 4:17 PM BST
Excellent well thought out tipping. Hope you cleaned up! Well done!!
Report BJG June 18, 2011 4:18 PM BST
8-15 to 1-10

Shocked
Report Santry June 18, 2011 4:18 PM BST
Well done KL. Prove once again you are one real shrewdie.Thanks
Report tobywong. June 18, 2011 4:19 PM BST
super
Report Dan Chipowski June 18, 2011 4:20 PM BST
Legendary thread. Only sorry I didn't get involved in all the markets Laugh
Report stayonyourfeet June 18, 2011 4:21 PM BST
Cheers for the tip buddy, last leg of Jacksonslady, Await The Dawn, this -11 treble :)
Report GANT007 June 18, 2011 4:21 PM BST
9-17....wow.
Report jair1970 June 18, 2011 4:21 PM BST
I'm English.  What sport is this?  Happy
Report paddyirishman June 18, 2011 4:21 PM BST
outstanding tipping keen leader and thats from a corkman
Report paddyirishman June 18, 2011 4:21 PM BST
outstanding tipping keen leader and thats from a corkman
Report Deplasterer June 18, 2011 4:23 PM BST
Wow, missed this, best i've seen in a long time.
Report Dan Chipowski June 18, 2011 4:23 PM BST
Cork 9-18 Laois 1-13

4 minutes left.

Cigar time. Cool
Report kiddo112 June 18, 2011 4:24 PM BST
Congrats Keenleader. Bet you will enjoy working out the return Grin

Had a good lump on Cork over 1.5gls @1/2, weighed in nice and early.
Report Dan Chipowski June 18, 2011 4:24 PM BST
Commentator on Midlands Radio said 'This Laois team have trained as hard as any team in the country this year'.

Yeah fking right pal. LaughLaughLaugh
Report tobywong. June 18, 2011 4:25 PM BST
they will surely get the ten goals yet Shocked
Report Dan Chipowski June 18, 2011 4:28 PM BST
10-20 Laugh
Report stayonyourfeet June 18, 2011 4:28 PM BST
10-20 fack
Report reb June 18, 2011 4:29 PM BST
Great credit to Keen Leader, not just for giving out the various tips to us but also for taking the time to write an excellent and (now we know) accurate assessment of how the game would pan out.
Report joe9000 June 18, 2011 4:33 PM BST
Big up Keen Leader!
Report Distant View June 18, 2011 4:36 PM BST
Why was there no bets on over 6.5 and over 7.5 goals?
A shocking oversight!!
Report ballaman68 June 18, 2011 4:38 PM BST
Great write up KL, well thought out and researched piece. Its threads like this that made the Irish forum a treat to read.

Keep it up and thanks !!
Report TradeFair June 18, 2011 4:57 PM BST
How many odds compilers will be sacked Monday?

8/11 Over 5.5
EVS Under 5.5
Report Rocketfingers June 18, 2011 4:58 PM BST
Well in KL !
Report Winner alright!!! June 18, 2011 5:05 PM BST
Be interesting to know how Powers and Laddies bet in running on these matches whilst not televised. Take it thats its one odds compiler at the match feeding the change of odds back to head office.
Was clear from listening to Newstalk commentary that the cork forwards had only one thing on their mind when got the ball and that was to go for goal. Scored 3 in first half and could have have had 3 more.

Cork playing with Wind in 2nd half and Powers odds compiler still felt that over 5.5 cork goals was a 11/2 shot....... Ouch!!!!
Report spurs to buy big June 18, 2011 6:06 PM BST
quality tipping .....well done
Report neill d June 18, 2011 6:11 PM BST
WD, what more can ya say.
Report Giant Strides June 18, 2011 6:11 PM BST
Incredible piece of tipping.
Just be happy I didn`t jinx you!
Congratulations KL.
Report one last chance June 18, 2011 6:14 PM BST
cheers Keen Leader made me a few quid 2day with the effort that went into that post i had 2 have a bet on it [:D]
Report neill d June 18, 2011 6:16 PM BST
My mate is a big GAA man, but a bit thick, he was all on about the pride of intercounty players and how could -11 be a certainty, I'm going to give him a right old slagging nowLaugh, Its amazing really, the difference between a fella who knows about sport and a fella who knows about betting AND sport, as soon as I said 'just short of even money' he wasn't interested and looked at me like I'd 2 heads. That was the bet of the decade after Kilkenny to beat Limerick in the 2007 final at 4/7.
Report Win only - Sp only June 18, 2011 6:25 PM BST
fantastic stuff from Keen Leader, took them by the roots - well played, great analysis and reasoning.
Report db1974 June 18, 2011 6:40 PM BST
Great stuff OP
Report ko2 June 18, 2011 6:49 PM BST
wd keen leader
Report the jolly June 18, 2011 6:59 PM BST
fantasitc stuff - sorry i didnt see this this morning
Report kavvie June 18, 2011 7:05 PM BST
any time kl posts i usually follow his advice.the shrewdest of the shrewd.i backed cork minus 11 at evs...handicap betting is what i usually go for but its tricky.last week i really thought waterford were certs to beat the handicap...sadly i was wrong.i got it back thanks to kl tho!!
Report BraveInca2006. June 18, 2011 7:16 PM BST
Extremely well spotted KL. I cant recall 10 goals being conceded in a senior championship match previously. Disgraceful performance from Laois and not unexpected given the preparations you described.
Report Cupwinkcook June 18, 2011 7:28 PM BST
First up, super stuff.

I placed my bets about 20 mins before the start and the prices I got seem to be way skinnier than KLs.
The cashier read them out from a screen.

For example : over 5.5 goals for Cork, 9/2

Did she give me the price for over 5.5 goals for both teams?
Report Berbatov6 June 18, 2011 7:32 PM BST
I'd imagine KK and others simply moved the market. the original post was up here two days ago.
Report lapsy pa June 18, 2011 7:35 PM BST
Very well done Keen leader,spot on and put it up for anyone to agree or not, no bet but this stuff makes a good forum.
Report Dan Chipowski June 18, 2011 8:42 PM BST
Cupwink;

You were quite obviously given the price for the match goals and not the Cork goals. No way Cork over 5.5 goals was 9/2 before the match.
Report Cupwinkcook June 18, 2011 11:02 PM BST
looking at the prices of the Tipp v Clare match, looks that way alright

will have a tough job convincing them though given the cleanout they will have suffered
Report waysidewill June 19, 2011 12:11 AM BST
Wow, well done OP (keen leader), epic success. Very seldom you see someone stick their neck out so much and be 100% correct on every part of a bet. I'd say the second half of that match is getting some serious scrutiny from some betting firms. Don't watch a whole lot of hurling but would definitely be interested in watching the last half hour of that match.
Report dinglemick June 19, 2011 12:03 PM BST
Keen Leaders opening thread should be cut out and put in a frame at the top right hand corner of the screen every time you open the irish sports forum  !!!!!
Report Tony Fenton June 19, 2011 12:37 PM BST
Blush great write up kl.
Report sinndar001 June 19, 2011 4:57 PM BST
Well done Keen Leader. Fantastic stuff.
Report Colonel Sanders June 19, 2011 10:19 PM BST
Tremendous tipping. Unloaded on Cork -11 at 10/11. Probably should have had a few more bets but happy enough

Anyone any idea what this cost Paddy's? Every time I looked at Oddschecker the handicap line seemed to go up by a point
Report ko2 June 20, 2011 9:57 AM BST
hope the firms who copy got hit as well, shculd employ people to come up with their own prices
Report ilikewavingatbuses June 20, 2011 10:11 AM BST
quite outstanding KL.


i put this just a head of rorys achievements yesterday, just!


and once again morse proves hes the worst gambler of all time!

wd all that followed.
Report playthegameboy June 20, 2011 1:00 PM BST
Was in a Laddies shop in Cork on Saturday and the guy behind the counter was telling all the regulars to get across the road to PP and get on the handicap. Giving it away was the phrase he was using. Not into GAA betting so had no interest myself but great tipping all the same!!
Report punchestown June 20, 2011 1:15 PM BST
Ditto for me regards GAA betting but well done all the same,it's what this place should be all about.
Report DistressedPostRace June 20, 2011 2:18 PM BST
great tipping, almost psychic
Report MCKENNA June 20, 2011 3:19 PM BST
Great stuff KL,keep up the good work. Didnt get invloved myself but was listening to some of the 1st half and was a bit worried for your followers when Laois got the goal and it looked like there was a game on - what do I know!!
Report Anaglogs Daughter June 20, 2011 3:20 PM BST
Has Keen Leader still got his Laois Managers job this morning Laugh
Report Prospero June 20, 2011 4:27 PM BST
This thread is the ****. Well done KL.
Report Ernie__Bert June 20, 2011 5:16 PM BST
Guinness
Report Mr Mischief June 20, 2011 7:13 PM BST
SuperbBlush
Report TradeFair June 20, 2011 7:39 PM BST
Goalpost in the RP should ask Keen leader to do a column every week. It would make a nice change. They should at least run a story on the gamble landed.
Report Murphys Stroke June 20, 2011 8:22 PM BST
I doubt they will tradefair since nearly all of their so called experts were going the other way.By the way well done KL on probably the best bit of gambling advice I have ever seen on this forum.
Report dj876 June 21, 2011 3:37 AM BST
Great right up kl ,I heard it was observed by a few shrewd corkonians.
Report frank60 June 21, 2011 2:09 PM BST
lets face KL was lucky/ Cork only won by 34pts and i only say this post todayCry
Report Cupwinkcook June 27, 2011 10:58 PM BST
got paid at prices slightly less than KL's originals so a tidy profit

thanks again
Report ilikewavingatbuses September 19, 2011 8:29 PM BST
this was AWESOME!!

easily the single best advice ive ever read on the forum, and the op was on the money in every aspect of his detailed write up and was as confident in his convictions.

i hope he cleaned them out and fair play for taking the time to write it up.

legendary thread!
Report ilikewavingatbuses September 19, 2011 8:30 PM BST
never took th advice but did read it pregame and was v impressed!

its a gem!
Report RoyalAcademy September 20, 2011 2:26 PM BST
yesterday's newspaper wraps fish and chips
Report ilikewavingatbuses September 20, 2011 7:12 PM BST
dont be jealo fella[;)]
Report Deplasterer September 21, 2011 8:56 AM BST
Has to be up there with best betting thread of the year so far. Read it pre match, didn't get involvedCry.

Funniest thread of the year candidate is betfair resident headbanger Doh Wah diddy on the N American forum Laugh:

http://community.betfair.com/north_american/go/thread/view/94138/28251777/hello-america?pg=3
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 12, 2012 4:29 PM GMT
ttt........for any newbie's
Report Toto82 November 12, 2012 9:26 PM GMT
Thanks catchme. i hadnt seen this before.  We need more threads like this.  Who will be the next hero>
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