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10 Apr 11 21:47
Date Joined: 27 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 58 | Blogger: Gallistic's blog
Keen Leader, will you be writing a Eurovision Preview this year? It has been excellent the last two years.
Pause Switch to Standard View Calling Keen Leader re: Eurovision
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Report Distant View May 10, 2011 2:10 PM BST
France were 33s when betting opened.

They were 7/2 this day last week.

Whether they win or not, the value is long gone on them.
Report Rocketfingers May 10, 2011 2:20 PM BST
Distant view it's fair enough to say that in a normal bet but France wins so actually yes there is value.
Report GANT007 May 10, 2011 2:30 PM BST
Rocketfingers......Deep down I always wanted to be a professional punter/trader like you.

Mairead Farrell on the Ray Darcy show tipped France 2 weeks ago..........she also fancies Germany, Hungary and Ireland in the top 10 and with a bit of luck a top 5 for Ireland............she was at the live rehersals and confirmed her fancies the other morning and also reported that the English representatives Blue put on a very nervous out of tune performance...........I fancy Bosnia outright @16/1 E/W.......4 PLACES.
Report Rocketfingers May 10, 2011 2:38 PM BST
Gant but deep down you must know that with your unique brand of ignorance & the your sheer thickness you were always made to be a cop !

Lads we had to wait to closer to the time to get the markets liquidity higher. I am happy with my lot I wonder did Mairead give the lay Armenia to qualify from their semi as well Laugh
Report GANT007 May 10, 2011 2:44 PM BST
Wrong again..........but I'm sure you are use to that by now..........I aint one of them lads who give deadly stares to you and your eirigi pals while you hijack peaceful protests.
Report GANT007 May 10, 2011 2:47 PM BST
Liquidity.......just go into a pp shop and place the bet..odds are almost the same as you put up..........I think them asain agents you employ are taking you for a ride.
Report Rocketfingers May 10, 2011 2:49 PM BST
Lay Serbia to qualify at 1.55 from their semi final
Report Rocketfingers May 10, 2011 2:49 PM BST
Report db1974 May 10, 2011 2:53 PM BST
What does 3/10 mean - only 3 out of 10 cats like this one?
Report Rocketfingers May 10, 2011 3:02 PM BST
basically there are 10 of us in the room judging each song/bet, 3 of us think this is a good bet db, hope this makes sense mate GL !
Report db1974 May 10, 2011 3:09 PM BST
LOL - Who are the other 9? Workrider? Wildman? The 2 lads in Westlife who are from Sligo?
Report Tony Fenton May 10, 2011 3:10 PM BST
30% of his brain thinks this is a good bet. The other 70% of his brain doesnt. Simples.
Report Rocketfingers May 10, 2011 3:38 PM BST
Cheers Baloney Fenton
Report Tony Fenton May 10, 2011 3:50 PM BST
Report Market Wizard2 May 10, 2011 5:27 PM BST
think il stick with the name on this thread title,keen leader not let us down in last 3 or 4 yrs that iv followed him.first time seeing the forum name rocketfingers post on eurovision unless on separate threads previously!
Report Rocketfingers May 10, 2011 5:49 PM BST
Remember the name Market as the brewskies are on me saturday evening !
Report Distant View May 10, 2011 6:42 PM BST
Spot on Market.
Report Toto82 May 10, 2011 8:56 PM BST
this was a good thread til the usual MUPPETS started arguing
Report Toto82 May 10, 2011 8:58 PM BST
more Eurovision betting talk:
Report Market Wizard2 May 10, 2011 9:57 PM BST
thanks toto
Report Rocketfingers May 10, 2011 10:17 PM BST
Lads thats how you do it !!!! IZI money IZI money

10 May 11 14:08 Joined: 20 May 10 | Topic/replies: 1,647 | Blogger: Rocketfingers's blog
Lay Armenia to qualify from their semi final (Semi Final 1) @1.44 3/10
Report keen leader May 10, 2011 10:27 PM BST
quite predictable tonight, with so many of the former ussr members in the group, neighbourly love brought most of them home barring armenia.......i think either azerb or russia won tonight, i would be shocked if russia is not in the frame.
Report Rocketfingers May 10, 2011 10:29 PM BST
Who's the pick to win it outright Keen?
Report revedesivola May 10, 2011 10:35 PM BST
did ireland get thru?
Report Rocketfingers May 10, 2011 10:37 PM BST
Thursday night Rev, were punted today to make top 10
Report revedesivola May 10, 2011 10:40 PM BST
ah rite, were we not in dis semi final ting tonight no?
Report Toto82 May 10, 2011 10:59 PM BST
good call rocketf

Wish I laid Turkey at 1.1!!
Report frank60 May 11, 2011 12:11 AM BST
hope your right KL backed russia  to win first s/final for small money from 8.8 T0 9.2,
Report donal May 11, 2011 2:03 AM BST
Serbia & Georgia were the two to take from Semi Final 1, imo. But it seems like the winner is France already even though the song is SH1T.
Report BJG May 11, 2011 1:57 PM BST
Ireland 2nd favs to win ShockedShockedShocked
Report revedesivola May 11, 2011 2:00 PM BST
Report GANT007 May 11, 2011 2:06 PM BST
For a novelty event it is stirring up some interest in the betting shops...........People who before this did not know where the local betting shop was are having  €5's and €10's on Jedward.
Report db1974 May 11, 2011 2:45 PM BST
Georgia are 100/1 with Billys and will sing last*

Probably worth a fiver each-way at that price.

*(courtesy of Oddschecker email)
Report Dan Chipowski May 11, 2011 2:52 PM BST
Feel sorry for the fools wasting money on Jedward.
Report BJG May 11, 2011 3:04 PM BST
Some shop was reportin a 5k bet on Jedward earlier on the radio = [smiley:crazy][smiley:crazy][smiley:crazy]
Report GANT007 May 11, 2011 3:07 PM BST
The whole thing is only a bit of craic....if they were eastern european they would be certs.
Report Toto82 May 11, 2011 7:25 PM BST
They are surely a great lay now at 7s?
Report Rocketfingers May 11, 2011 8:29 PM BST
Yes i would think so toto, i would hazard a guess they were being bet because of how they done in the google vote, where they won it well. You would imagine that would not cover a certain demographic type?
Report Toto82 May 11, 2011 10:16 PM BST
The important factor to remember is that half of the votes for each country come from a jury.  This has lessened the chances of the "novelty" acts.
Report Rocketfingers May 11, 2011 10:22 PM BST
Well anyway thats why there has been money for them toto, can't see them get too many votes from juries.
Report Rocketfingers May 12, 2011 11:47 AM BST
Slovenia to qualify from the second semi final @1.59 5/10
Lay Sweden to qualify at @1.32
Belgium to qulify @7.00 1/10
Israel to Qualify @2.75 3/10

One more lay bet to come if the price settles down
Report BJG May 12, 2011 12:08 PM BST
Ireland hittin towards 5/1 on here


Not a chance of winnin surely Confused
Report Rocketfingers May 12, 2011 12:26 PM BST
Some craic if they did :)
Report Rocketfingers May 12, 2011 1:10 PM BST
Lay Moldova @1.87 3.5/10
Report db1974 May 12, 2011 4:35 PM BST
Bosnia are 10/3 for tonights semi but 16/1 to win overall

Ireland are 9/2 (SkyBet) for tonight's semi but 5/1 overall

What's the story there?
Report vinnie_roe May 12, 2011 5:17 PM BST
db1974 - crazy market, but bosnia 16/1 eway 4 places is a great bet with paddies.
Report Izita_Monstar May 12, 2011 8:02 PM BST
Wat time are Ire due on?
Report BJG May 12, 2011 8:06 PM BST
This is the line-up of the Second Semi-Final of the 2011 Eurovision Song Contest:

   1. Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dino Merlin - Love In Rewind
   2. Austria: Nadine Beiler - The Secret Is Love
   3. The Netherlands: 3JS - Never Alone
   4. Belgium: Witloof Bay - With Love Baby
   5. Slovakia: TWiiNS - I'm Still Alive
   6. Ukraine: Mika Newton - Angel
   7. Moldova: Zdob și Zdub - So Lucky
   8. Sweden: Eric Saade - Popular
   9. Cyprus: Christos Mylordos - San Aggelos S’Agapisa
  10. Bulgaria: Poli Genova - Na Inat
  11. F.Y.R. Macedonia: Vlatko Ilievski - Rusinka
  12. Israel: Dana International - Ding Dong
  13. Slovenia: Maja Keuc - No One
  14. Romania: Hotel FM - Change
  15. Estonia: Getter Jaani - Rockefeller Street
  16. Belarus: Anastasiya Vinnikova - I Love Belarus
  17. Latvia: Musiqq - Angel In Disguise
  18. Denmark: A Friend In London - New Tomorrow
  19. Ireland: Jedward - Lipstick

The voting opens b4 they even sing?? Surely this is a disadvantage for those who are near the end[:x]
Report steeringjobnap May 12, 2011 8:22 PM BST
Slovakia - well f*** my shoes Laugh
Report BJG May 12, 2011 8:24 PM BST
Slovakia [:p][:p]
Report Market Wizard2 May 12, 2011 8:26 PM BST
just after seeing end of solvakia wow[:p][:p]
Report BJG May 12, 2011 8:53 PM BST
Some 1 check if this Israel one has an adams apple plz Shocked
Report Giant Strides May 12, 2011 9:11 PM BST
Theres some hot chicks on display here! Silly
Report BJG May 12, 2011 9:14 PM BST
Id be checkin a few of em for a bulge first tho Laugh
Report Giant Strides May 12, 2011 9:15 PM BST
Who Jedward!? Laugh
Report GANT007 May 12, 2011 9:19 PM BST
Take out the hot chicks and it's like a bad karaoke in any village pub............
Report BJG May 12, 2011 9:20 PM BST
Karaoke would be better quality!
Report BJG May 12, 2011 9:22 PM BST
These poor 2 sods, cant sing for love nor munny Laugh

At least they have a bit of a beat behind em
Report GANT007 May 12, 2011 9:26 PM BST
Super performance by Jedward........A lad on KFM RADIO said today they were the best thing to come out of Kildare since Glen Ryan.
Report boca87 May 12, 2011 9:27 PM BST
How many qualify from the semi finals? And whats Jedwards chance of qualifying baring in mind the UK can't vote?
Report Giant Strides May 12, 2011 9:27 PM BST
Fair play to them. Gave it socks. Hope they qualify.
Report BJG May 12, 2011 9:28 PM BST
Well after watchin mst of tonight, they should qualify

Some awful shoite on tonight

I think 10 qualify out of the 19?? Not sure tho
Report Dan Chipowski May 12, 2011 9:29 PM BST
Gave it their best shot.

Wasn't all thatBlush bad
Report boca87 May 12, 2011 9:35 PM BST
Thanks BJG. I thought that too but just want to clarify. I don't think they are 1/5 shots to qualify though.
Report Cupwinkcook May 12, 2011 9:44 PM BST
laid them at 7 for the overall on the off chance they bomb out
Report anfeild May 12, 2011 9:49 PM BST
Going last will probably help them.
Report BJG May 12, 2011 9:55 PM BST
Eastern European domination so far [:x]
Report BJG May 12, 2011 9:56 PM BST
wd Jedward Cool[:x]
Report Dan Chipowski May 12, 2011 9:56 PM BST
Well done lads
Report boca87 May 12, 2011 9:56 PM BST
And so they are through. I underestimated the support they have there. Biggest cheer of the night.
Report BJG May 12, 2011 9:57 PM BST
Mad as a box of drunken frogs
Report grade 1 May 12, 2011 10:11 PM BST
Super performance by Jedward........A lad on KFM RADIO said today they were the best thing to come out of Kildare since Glen Ryan.

FFS did C Moore ever write " The ballad of Glen Ryan " [:p]
Report Giant Strides May 12, 2011 10:19 PM BST
Delighted for them. Fully deserved. Blush
Report Deep Impact May 13, 2011 5:09 PM BST
Shocking draw for Bosnia

What's the plan of action now, KL?

Thanks in advance
Report Byerley_Racing May 13, 2011 5:13 PM BST
Deep Impact,

You must follow the obvious steps.

1. Wait for the easy trade position to arise later tomorrow evening.
2. Once you have executed your easy trade you must bask in its glory.

Report kavvie May 13, 2011 5:52 PM BST
i was gonna lay france...any one stop me?
Report db1974 May 13, 2011 6:37 PM BST
Coffin draw for Bosnia - everyone listens for first song and then goes to make a cup of tea and/or switches channel until the voting

Mahoosive price now though
Report lustrumm May 14, 2011 12:27 AM BST
I think France are too short. On a personal level I have had great luck with the Eurovision doen the years. However I can never seem to get the Irish Entry right and even backed Dusting the Durkey at 4/6 to qualify the year they were in it.
For some reason I cannot get Ireland out of my mind. The song is catchy, the boys are doing everything right over there and the tournament seems really uncompetitive this year. After leaving 40's behind  on here and 25's and 20's fixed odds I finally stepped in today at 5/1 to win and 7/4 top 4 (Why are they 7/4 to place, is it because people think they will do well or bomb out.
I think Ireland at 7/4 top 4 is a cracking bet. I certainly wouldnt back any of the other acts on what I have seen. Jedward are superstars already and I don't think you could say that about any of the other acts in the competition
Report zilzal1 May 14, 2011 10:16 AM BST
Evens Bosnia to finish ahead of the UK in a head to head with Laddies !!!!
Report Dan Chipowski May 14, 2011 12:45 PM BST
Azerbaijan e/w looks the bet now given they have a nice draw (19).

I didn't think Ireland could win but surely the draw in 6 has killed off any lingering hopes.
Report BraveInca2006. May 14, 2011 6:35 PM BST
The draw was the final nail for me on the Irish entry and i have reached for the pink button on the Lucan lads in a big way. Same for the UK entry.

Small bets on Georgias Linkin Park-esque entry with the prime last slot. Slight concern that 160s on there now in win market. Think they should be odds on for top 10. Austria also interesting position with an excellent singer and a good posi.

Having had very strong opinions on Norway and Germany the past 2 years, i am struggling a bit this year to frame the competition. The Azeri entry seems to have good momentum but it is an apology of a country and shouldnt be allowed to compete IMHO.
Enjoy all.
Report keen leader May 14, 2011 6:52 PM BST
final original statement narrowed the field down to just 5...france, germany, bosnia, russia and ireland.....the winner comes from these 5 ...nothing else can win.

secondly, the voting, draw bias is not that important any more...since the voting is now 50-50 public-pro jury, the pro juries will know the songs inside out and the positioning of songs in the final is no longer that significant....the best songs have won in the last 2 years and would have won no matter what stall they came from.

it would not surprise if the majority of the top 6 are drawn in the first 12 positions, only germany will score highly of those later.

bosnia have been written off......they are still the one song going to get all the top balkan scores and the bonus of the elimination of turkey and armenia is going to help big time as the muslim vote will go to them, and a number of possible 5 0r 6s become 7 or 8s.............still a banker for the top 6  and they are  even money that get more votes than the uk with ladbrokes, and that is simply the red banner offering you free cash, dont miss the opportunity to spsnk them.
Report Dan Chipowski May 14, 2011 11:14 PM BST
Azer weighed in Cool
Report Distant View May 14, 2011 11:20 PM BST
That was some French red herring
Report moneypenny May 14, 2011 11:27 PM BST
fair play to ye keen leader. had a lump on bosnia to beat uk at evens with laddies
Report vinnie_roe May 14, 2011 11:30 PM BST
First Semi-Final

   1. Greece
   2. Azerbaijan
   3. Finland
   4. Iceland
   5. Lithuania
   6. Georgia
   7. Hungary
   8. Serbia
   9. Russia
  10. Switzerland
Report vinnie_roe May 14, 2011 11:31 PM BST
Second Semi-Final

   1. Sweden
   2. Denmark
   3. Slovenia
   4. Romania
   5. Bosnia & Herzegovina
   6. Ukraine
   7. Austria
   8. Ireland
   9. Estonia
  10. Moldova
Report tobywong. May 14, 2011 11:34 PM BST
great stuff kl , took your advice in the match bet
Report Viva Pataca May 14, 2011 11:35 PM BST
Keen Leader, well done with the Bosnia prediction, you appear to know your stuff.

However, I think you are very wrong with the voting bias - it was all very predictable. The introduction of a jury appears to have done little to combat that.
Report Viva Pataca May 14, 2011 11:37 PM BST
By the way, the winning song was very ordinary in my opinion when compared with others.
Report BraveInca2006. May 14, 2011 11:44 PM BST
How on earth did Greece win a SF with that thrash? I made it in the bottom 5 songs. Incredible. Very surprised by Italy. Given their reluctance to enter in the past few years, I would have to question how they managed to finish second with that song. I imagine they may have got huge jury votes.
Report vinnie_roe May 14, 2011 11:47 PM BST
Great result for the bookmakers. Cleaned up in the semi finals and the final.
Report Giant Strides May 14, 2011 11:48 PM BST
The only thing worthwhile aboutit now is the hot chicks, from countries who never ever give us a point! WALOFS
Report frank60 May 14, 2011 11:48 PM BST
Had many bets and ended up winning 12euro mainly due to laying bosnia as low as 8.2 in running, any of the top 6 winning exceeped the winner would have been a great result, pity bosnia did/nt hold on to a top 4 place but had a lot of fun with 3 pages of bets. tx K.Laugh[;)] L.
Report Market Wizard2 May 15, 2011 1:01 AM BST
Well cant complain i guess.first year in 3 or 4 that KL was off as regards predictions.bosnia top 4?russia top 4?bosnia e/w in outright .bosnaia and russia e/w in their respective semi finals??overall he ow4es us nothing at all as it has been free money until this year completely the opposite. swings n roundabouts i guess!!!
Report ACE JACK DOUBLE SUITED May 15, 2011 2:46 AM BST
Report Giant Strides May 15, 2011 9:22 AM BST
What`s Blue and can`t sing?
BLUE Laugh
Report ballaman68 May 15, 2011 10:12 AM BST
MW2 i have to say that as a result of keenleader i made money, laid uk to be in top 4 and top 5 and backed bosnia at 19s and again at 44s and laid off during the show.

excellent analysis and well thought out betting plan.

Cheers KL and keep up the good work.
Report Market Wizard2 May 15, 2011 12:47 PM BST
ya i agree the lays obviously worked re the uk.wasnt in position to lay off during show on bosnia.clearly my own fault.hopefully i didnt seem critical just meant other years went better.any losses this yr far surpassed by the wins of previous 3 or 4 yrs purely down to KL which im very grateful for!
Report the jolly May 16, 2011 9:58 AM BST
Seems there was a decent chance to make a few quid in running here - the voting order was put up on a thread under Specials on Sat night.  There seems to be strong evidence that the order was contrived to make the results more exciting.  It did that with the UK, Ireland, Bosnia, Sweden and Denmark all geting a run of decent votes - made for good tv viewing and also presented great lay opportunities. How long were Bosnia stuck on 125 points after getting a great run of scores? Italy then came with a wet sail, but any decent analysis of the order would have told you that Ukraine or Azer were nailed on.  DOnt have the time to put into this sort of voting analysis but this comp presents some serious opportunities to those that do.
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