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A Pattern developing in Ballydoyle gambles.

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Replies: 248
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 28 Apr 12 13:17
And an even greater difference between you and I mincer is that you believe everything you say is 100% correct and where anybody has a differing opinion to yourself or where your viewpoint is shown to be fallacious they are nevertheless idiots. If myself or KL came on and said the sky was blue you'd probably disagree with us. It reminds me of when, after I put up a few Emma Lavelle horses to follow for the year (all bar one of which yielded a healthy individual level stakes profit for the year and the remaining horse unfortunately got killed), you came on saying she hadn't a clue and you'd go broke following her. Funnily enough she's just after her best year ever and has plenty to look forward to next year. Kudos should also go to GH who buys 90% of her horses and given they operate in the very competitive 20k-50k middle market at the store sales they can be rightly proud of the stables progress this year especially considering they haven't a brain cell to rub together according to you.

As I already said I doubt Tabor would be having a bet with VC the firm for obvious reasons and this was more than likely a private bet with Victor himself. It may well be that he doesn't wish to mix the business of the firm with his own. Given the person that told me I am assuming there is a high degree of truth to it but to be honest I don't really care whether it is or not. It may have never occurred to you but there's quite a substantial chance that you have in the past youself been told an embellished story by a trusted source without you realising it. This is Ireland after-all. The point of posting the story was to give an example of the kind of stories that do the rounds about big punters like Tabor. I have heard many spurious and outlandish stories about racing personalities as the average racing fan loves those kinds of rumours but I generally wouldn't take any notice. However when it comes to him I find it hard to believe that he is a poor punter as has been suggested here and outside of that I find it impossible to believe that he could be cut out of the organisation of which he us a major component of in the manner put forward by other posters.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 28 Apr 12 13:26
Silver you could adopt that attitude to any person or organisation that has been successful in any industry throughout history. You need a fair degree of luck and timing is also crucial. It has been said that the late Steve Jobs and Bill Gates amongst many others in the computer industry were lucky to have been born in the Baby Boomer era and that if they hadn't there would be no Apple or Microsoft today. Of course luck plays it's part but there was a lot of hard graft and money put in before Sadlers Wells established himself. I cannot for the life of me understand how people can knock Coolmore for what they have achieved.
By:
silvergreaser
When: 28 Apr 12 14:04
Steve Jobs didn't invent the mp3 player it was already invented, he just made it hip and cool looking with white ear phones, Apples first mp3 product wasn't any better than the competition in fact inferior to some, Jobs made it a fashion item, everyone wanted one, a simple concept which allowed him to take a strangle hold on the market, the result was the eventual ipod/iphone near total domination.

Yeh Coolmore were already a successful operation before Sadlers came along but not in anyway powerful enough to take on the arabs, but not even Magnier could foresee what was to come next the rest they say is history.

Wasn't Magnier one of the biggest instigators of the rash almost suicidal Classic Thoroughbreds plc, a desperate attempt to try and win back their domination from the arabs as such they very nearly destroyed Ballydoyle for ever more, if Vincent was thinking of holding on for a few more years the fiasco that was Classic Thoroughbreds almost certainly hastened his retirement, Sangster was all washed up and virtually disappeared after his Manton operation bombed, even Rodrigo De Triano couldn't save him.

Thank the Lord Sadlers Wells was around to bail Magnier out!.
By:
Allduckornodinner
When: 28 Apr 12 14:17
Silver Steve Jobs established the Apple company as the premium brand a long time before anyone was concerned with mp3 players. The point I was making that even a genius like him had timing and luck on his side. It shouldn't detract from what he achieved though.

Coolmore didn't have the financial resources to compete head-to-head with the Arabs and would have needed a gamechanger to take over. That came with SW but to put their success and standing down simply down to luck is disingenuous for me anyway.
By:
silvergreaser
When: 28 Apr 12 14:56
The point I'm making duck, Ballydoyle/Coolmore were on the ropes battered and bleeding profusely, legs buckling but still just about able to stand up, Sadlers at this time was still only a good sire soon to be a super sire, it should not be underestimated the influence this one horse has had on allowing Magnier/Coolmore to eventually punch their way off the ropes to become the all powerful they are today.

The Arabs wrestled the power from Ballydoyle not because of good business protocol but sheer weight of money, Ballydoyle built up their 70's/80's empire through Vincents vision, concentrating mainly on Northern Dancer stock and offspring and then by clever syndication which made them almost untouchable but even they couldn't fend off the oil rich arabs, pride can be dangerous thing, it was this pride that nearly wiped them off the face of the earth.

They then made the mistake of getting into a sustained battle with the arabs at the sales, a battle they never stood a chance of winning, horses going for ridiculous amounts of money, Keeneland weren't complaining!.

Magnier and co might have made some good business decisions down the years but he and his entourage were also guilty of making some incredible foolhardy decisions.
This ruthless business man as the media like to describe him was as fallible as the rest of us.

When Ballydoyle did actually outbid the arabs they paid a kings ransom, the horse would have had to have been a Sea the Stars to come close to recouping the money back at stud, most of these ridiculously expensive horses turned out to be duds.
The arabs didn't care about the kings ransom dud horses they purchased because they had at that time a bottomless pit, the Ballydoyle pit was almost empty when they eventually conceded the war was lost.

Classic Thouroughbreds suffered the same faith soon after.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 28 Apr 12 16:00
John Magnier was a periphereal figure in Classic Thoroughbreds plc farce. Vincent O Brien was the man behind that and Magnier learned a few very important lessons from that.

On Imperial Monarch plenty of cash for him now. Gamble??
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 28 Apr 12 16:03
Magnier has done a fantastic Job with Coolmore.

He has bought for the most part very wise. Foal Shared exceptionally very well and invested heavily in mares and Bloodlines for the future.

I could not imagine one man with his limited resources(does not have a countrys wealth to finance his hobby) done any better in a very risky and tough market and make massive profits. On Tabor, Tabor and Smith provided the financially backing to take Coolmore to next level in the last decade and spread the risk. Magnier will always be the main Coolmore man. His sons are already placed to take the business on. Tom Magnier in Australia will eventually take over from "THE BOSS" He has done a great job in Australia and by all accounts is a very nice chap.

Best of luck to them!
By:
silvergreaser
When: 28 Apr 12 17:17
He's peripheral because it suits your arguement or guilty as charged ruby?.

Why then if he was such a shrewd ruthless business man did he not try to rein in his partners when they were losing the total run of themselves?, or was he like Aiden is today a yes man?

I believe Magnier had a huge say in the decisions that destroyed many around him!.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 28 Apr 12 17:30
Didn't Vincent Buy all the and yearlings?. An the lads provided money/business acumen. They bought some incredible duds for fortunes over at Keenland.

Tabor has provided huge financial clout...Smith for my money looks the Magnier type but Tabor by all accounts is a bit of a lad. But sure what harm is Tabor doing only to himself if he wants to gamble millions and lose sure let him at it. I sure Magnier likes the odd gamble but I be very surprised or give a f*&k if they win or not as long as he keeps the turnover of Stallions from Ballydoyle as high as ever. I don't understand why Magnier would have any interest in Gambling to be honest only to keep his future stallions SP for Derby as FAV!
By:
silvergreaser
When: 28 Apr 12 18:09
Ruby, I'm not buying into the wildman thing that Tabor is oblivious to what is going on around him, pure fantasy!.

I'm just pointing out that Magnier was a very very lucky man.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 28 Apr 12 18:18
Completely agree that Magnier was lucky but it takes a lot more than luck and connections to keep that business growing as it had.

He had a vision, he had the financial clout, he had great expierence with Sangster and VOB but he did a very good job himself.
By:
silvergreaser
When: 28 Apr 12 18:33
Thats fair enough ruby, but if Sadlers hadn't become what he became John Magnier would've been what you said earlier a peripheral player.

As allduck says you need a huge slice of luck and John got it, it doesn't disguise the fact that he was intrumental in the decisions that nearly destroyed what was then my favourite Irish racing enterprise "Ballydoyle".

The media will harp over this fact and force feed you, so much so if you're any way naive or not clued up you'll except it as fact, that Magnier is the greatest? when in fact he was on the ropes bigtime!.

Good horses make good jockeys,

Good horses make good trainers, (excluding the weetabix trainers)

Good stallions and mares make good business men!
By:
Newmanix
When: 28 Apr 12 19:00
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Magnier
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 28 Apr 12 20:27
Wasn't it The Green Monkey that cost all the millions in Keeneland ?
By:
silvergreaser
When: 28 Apr 12 21:02
yeh jay but they bought the green donkey well after sadlers had already gave them their new life line they now had money to burn again, Demi O'Byrne was starting to get a bit cocky, bought this horse from a breeze up sale, google the horse!
By:
RicksonG
When: 28 Apr 12 22:04
MI-5 will be putting in a call to you wildmanfromborneo with all this super sleuth work. Its like reading a hardy boys novel with all the theories being put forward.

I thought the Requisition gamble was fairly tame myself. From memory there was an 8 runner market in the morning paying ew 1,2,3. There was a trickle for Requisition early, Bible Black was subsequently taken out and Requisition was about 6,5.5/1 depending where you looked.
Nephrite was around 8/1 for the Guineas before the race but the obvious q to ask was what APOB horse in the last 5 yrs has he given a prep run 2 weeks before the race? certainly not George Washington,HenryTheNavigator or Footstepsinthesand. There is the famous theory of APOB top horses reappearing back outside of Group level which may/may not be relevant here also.

Requisition finished off well over 8f in Galway and looked to have the physical scope to do something better at 3. The market wasnt asking for the highest premium to be paid to see if he could have an impact on the race.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 28 Apr 12 23:26
Well i remember the Hardy Boys but this thread was originally an attempt to find winners,it yielded some nice ones for me.Requisition was 9/1 before Bible Belt was withdrawn but there was no money for it[that is what impresses me]it opened at 7/1 and again nothing then suddenly the plunge followed by the massive drift on the favourite,it was a classic example of my original post.
Silvergreaser have you ever heard of the stallion Danehill,what a champion he was.
John Magnier is a brilliant stallion master and a brilliant innovator and would have been successful without Saddlers Wells.
There is a ring of truth about Allduckornodinners story about Tabor as it sounds similar to the York incident,i have never stated he was being cut out of the organisation just that Magnier was doing the odd punt himself and keeping some in the dark hence the breakdown of the bookies grapevine.
By:
RicksonG
When: 29 Apr 12 00:27
Requisition was 8/1 in a place before Bible Belt was withdrawn as I tried to get €50 ew on it at this price and was reduced to €25. It was 7/1 with L'brokes post withdrawal and 11/2 with P Power. I wasn't at the Curragh on the day but watching on ATR it seemed an absolute sh1t of a day and going to post it certainly looked as if Nephrite was the smaller of the two. It was backed quite heavily but it looked a bread + butter move to my eyes, the rest of the market was potentially very weak.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 29 Apr 12 00:41
Gambles are now multilayered,you have a weak on course market,an off course market in which i include the punters that are able to bet first show and the exchanges.I think it is a fair position to say that the backers of Requisition were fairly confident that Nephrite either hadn`t trained on or wouldn`t stay[i favour the former]so i think twas they were doing the laying,would that not be substantial,there is a tie in between Magnier and the purple as it is known here.
By:
RicksonG
When: 29 Apr 12 01:29
Hadn't trained on, wouldn't stay, wouldn't be fully fit, wouldn't enjoy the ground, pace shape of the race wouldn't suit, disadvantageous draw...how many variables can u think of that need answering when you back something taking 60%+ out of the field? I'm not saying that Ballydoyle horses don't get backed by their owners, but if its a two horse market, one is 1/2 and the other 7/1 I dont know what you expected to happen regardless of who owns them
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 29 Apr 12 10:36
Not much of a hidden gamble on this Father of Science
By:
Ozymandius
When: 29 Apr 12 11:33
Yes but is it Tabor backing a wrong un?  Or is it Magnier preparing the market ahead of a plunge on Exact, the second string?
By:
johnslad
When: 29 Apr 12 12:24
keep taking the TabletsLaugh
By:
johnslad
When: 29 Apr 12 12:25
and stop watching EastendersGrin
By:
Bassanio
When: 29 Apr 12 13:05
Gamble? There is no gamble on this race yet unless you call the tiny amounts this morning, a gamble.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 29 Apr 12 16:00
odds on early doors...out to 11/4.

Exact now moved from double figures into 5.4LaughLaugh
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 29 Apr 12 16:01
exact backed here and fav gone for a walk.

like the look of exact here actually. nice looking horse.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 29 Apr 12 16:03
exact 2nd was pushed to lead but couldntLaugh

lets see...
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 29 Apr 12 16:03
seamie pushing away!
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 29 Apr 12 16:03
no gamble landed here on exact
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 29 Apr 12 16:05
nej.
By:
OnTheSnaff
When: 29 Apr 12 16:05
Both Stuffed Laugh
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 29 Apr 12 16:05
Well those 2 horses wont be winning very much.

Oxx sly dogCool
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 29 Apr 12 16:06
smart winner.
By:
OnTheSnaff
When: 29 Apr 12 16:06
Though FOS ran a perfectly pleasing race if u ignore his morning price
By:
Ozymandius
When: 29 Apr 12 17:47
Magnier burned Laugh
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 29 Apr 12 22:37
Bassanio understands the gambling market and thankfully understands this thread.
Agree with On The Snaff Father Of Science will improve no end from that run.
Lots of Ballydoyle horses are punted by the ordinary public with no betting from the Ballydoyle insiders,some are punted by these same insiders and others the ones i tried to outline are done in my opinion by Magnier only.
I know Ozymandius is skitting but i have a feeling the Ballydoyle insiders had a real good day,they appeared to punt the bejaysus out of Kissed,not sure about Athens but feel thay were layers of Father Of Science.
Noticed at the Curragh recently Magnier in long and animated discussion with the biggest purple layer.
By:
Bassanio
When: 29 Apr 12 23:28
No question I would say that they punted Kissed.

There was initial money for Kissed in the morning, but it then dried up as uncertainty as to how fit she was seemed to take hold, which is understandable. She even moved back to 1.7 from 1.59 on here, although this is insignificant as liquidity is so poor.

However uncertainty quickly lifted in the 10 minutes before the race and she hardened up significantly. It is very difficult to believe that this was proper punters who started this. It would seem that those with full knowledge about her played and then as the question marks were removed, everyone else could join in.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 29 Apr 12 23:41
Succintly put and in my opinion exactly how the market operated.
By:
whatsthewordjohannesburg
When: 30 Apr 12 10:06
test
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