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A Pattern developing in Ballydoyle gambles.

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Replies: 248
By:
3winnersandasecond
When: 02 May 11 21:53
Not having a stable jockey helps with the subterfuge; plus a few bob early on for a fancy from another stable has put away the books. Amazed that Power was available at 13/2 on an opening show on Coolmore Day at HQ
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 02 May 11 21:59
They did it again today.Aiden OBrien had two runners in the opening two year old maiden,Secretary Of State and Power opened 7/2 and 5/1 respectively all the early money for favourite Remember Alexander at 6/4 and then suddenly all hell broke loose.Any price became a good price on Power and backed from 6/1 into 3/1,they were probably lucky to collect but collect they did.The pattern continues keeping the bookies and punters off the scent,trading at prices they would only have dreamed of before,dealing Tabor out,they definitely have some kind of new betting adviser, its working.
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 02 May 11 22:31
Wildman great thread.....but why do you say "probably lucky to collect" as I felt he won well and is more than useful...fran was very easy on the second today was never goin to be his day ....
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 03 May 11 11:32
Would agree with your assessment of Power but i think Remember Alexander could be exceptional.A filly taking on colts in an early season two year old maiden would normally mean little but she was much talked about before race, got very upset in the parade ring,missed the break in the race, ran green and a bit free and then the jinking started, she went left right left again and finally right to the outside where she picked up under hands and heels.
I realise age is against her but i think Jessica Harrington is a brilliant flat trainer and its only a matter of time before some of the bigger owners spot this.
By:
Tony Fenton
When: 03 May 11 11:39
She's a very tall lean filly. Lovely look to her. Think there will be much more to come next year.
By:
valjean
When: 03 May 11 13:36
re: Power - Saw the price drop like a stone on here in the blink of an eye and was reminded of this thread. WMOB you certainly spotted a trend before the pack (although am sure plenty will now claim to have also).
By:
jair1970
When: 11 May 11 19:28
No-one thought Choir had the hallmarks?

Still I backed the Bolger horse!
By:
RicksonG
When: 11 May 11 21:02
A few pennies for him you could say....7/2 into 13/8, was 6/1 during the day.
Looked a nice horse.

The winner of the first, Maybe, was a notable drifter from 11/4 in the morning returning 8/1 on track. Improvement can be expected possibly...
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 11 May 11 21:46
Choir was the best one yet mainly because i had four monkeys it.Ballydoyle won the race last year,i was in the ring watching the market,Whip Rules opened  7/4 Prophesy 2/1 and 6/1 Choir sneaky money at 6/1 i availed of the 4/1 just before a big Limerick trader made his move,he was now backed at all rates into 2/1 with Prophesy a massive drifter out to 5/1,more money came for Choir forcing him into 7/4 and they duly collected.
What is impressive about these gambles is how they are keeping it quiet and putting the bookies off the scent.
By:
huddys
When: 11 May 11 22:27
yes did you see the article in the field under ring tones he is saying the same as you have been for a while in last wkd edition
By:
Giant Strides
When: 11 May 11 22:36
Well they were only getting the some of the cash lost in the first race back on Choir.
I was in a bookies in the town when they show came in. It opened at 7/2. I looked away and by the time I looked again seconds later it was 9/4.
It`s not hard to hide them when you have multiple runners and everyone including the bookies are playing the same guessing game.
By:
Kelly
When: 11 May 11 22:39
Reckon some of the cleverer minds have twigged onto how to manipulate the markets via the exchanges . No money early , possibly lay a horse out to twice its realistic price  , a sprat to catch a whale . In the early morning markets a few hundred can move a price substantially .

Did not see the moves today  , watched the races but no bets myself , although I did back Cliamh Solais at over 2/1 early on here , only succes of the day  for meas it happened . But recently I have been amazed at the fluctuations in prices throughout the day on a variety of horses from all parts of these islands . One horse I backed  early yesterday at 9/2 ( and it traded lower on here subsequently ) started twice that price ( in a small field ) . Nowhere .

Makes life interesting though !
By:
Heisenberg.
When: 11 May 11 23:03
They are slowly killing Flat racing as a sport in Ireland
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 11 May 11 23:13
Giant Strides it is only this year that they have managed to keep things under their hat,maybe that is why they got rid of Murtagh.At the risk of offending Soldier of Fortune and GANT007 i think they are under financial pressure hence the necessity of the gambles.
By:
Giant Strides
When: 11 May 11 23:19
That`s an interesting take on the Murtagh departure!
I wish I was on a few more of them. Really impressed with the filly.
Maybe this and maybe that! Silly
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 12 May 11 00:33
good thread lads, v interesting!
By:
GANT007
When: 12 May 11 11:35
Wildmanfromborneo...............You in no way offended me........We all know you would hardly get on 2 months training fees in the Irish ring at the moment and the liquidity aint great online.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 12 May 11 12:02
There is more bet than you actually think i reckon they won six figures on Choir.
I like Giant Strides but his post of 22;36 has to be the worst he has ever done.If you back two horses on a day and they are both odds against if one wins you are in profit.At Naas Ballydoyle backed Ahimsa in the first for small money but the second race was different,they set this race up by convincing the odds compilers that Prophecy was their selection.He opened up 2/1 was slightly bigger on the exchanges around 3.1 Choir opens up 6/1 and is around 7.6 on the exchanges now that took some doing and for that they deserve credit.They held the line all day no word of any description got out and only moved late obviously by stuffing a Limerick layer/trader.
By:
GANT007
When: 12 May 11 12:13
So you reckon they got €25k + accepted on the course.
By:
Giant Strides
When: 12 May 11 12:17
I`m not arguing with you wmfb, but they backed the first one from 3s into 15/8. That`s not an insignificant gamble in a race in my book. 
Are you saying they lost that one so as to win bigger on the other one!?
I don`t pretend to know anything about the betting ring tbh. The first show on Choir was 7/2 in the shops though.
6/1! It`s a 4 runner race. The layers would surely know the faces at this stage. How much can they really get on at those inflated prices?
By:
Giant Strides
When: 12 May 11 12:18
Exactly GANT!
By:
GANT007
When: 12 May 11 12:31
I'd say the market is as weak as p%ss..........not long ago I know a few lads in a syndicate who had a runner in a maiden hurdle at naas on a Saturday.......8 lads in it and they had €3k to get on beteen them........the horse was 7/2 and they had hassle getting it on at 7/2.........got some at 3/1 and 11/4...........the horse was 3rd in the end.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 12 May 11 12:34
No i am not saying they got that on the course.Between exchanges and off course bookmakers plus the on course mob they won at least 100 thousand.On the exchanges they laid Whip Rules and Prophecy and backed Choir,off course they got some money on opening show.
Giant Strides the first race at Naas was different in that it was mainly public money on Ahimsa that caused it to shorten none of their agents seemed to be on and there was no subterfuge,no attempt to conceal the stable selected even though the outsider won there was no money for it.
By:
GANT007
When: 12 May 11 12:46
2nd race Gowran........2/1 into 1/1 and I reckon it will go off 4/9 or 2/5.........4th in a hot maiden at HQ last time out and eyecatching even though we were all on about Jessies horse that was 2nd.
By:
Giant Strides
When: 12 May 11 12:53
They must be setting this one up for Triumphant so! Plain
By:
dj876
When: 12 May 11 12:56
Grin 
liquidity on irish raing early really is shocking  - 135 % or on this race.
By:
GANT007
When: 12 May 11 13:05
There is no liquidity on Irish midweek racing even the weekend is poor enough....
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 25 May 11 12:03
Wasnt at the Curragh at the weekend but my old china was and followed my formula in the first race.OBrien had two in the race Foot Soldier and Reply with Ryan Moore on Foot Soldier,betting opened 3/1 Foot Soldier 9/2 Reply my friend spotted Magnier backing with Chronicle saw them cut the price on Reply so he had 900 to 200 for himself,it was then backed at all rates into 3/1.In the 1000 Guineas Together opened favourite but all the money was for Misty For Me my friend wasnt sure if Magnier backed it so he left the race alone,he has put me in bad form by telling me i would have backed two winners and taken on Apache in the last a slow slow beast.
By:
Pat Mustard
When: 28 May 11 14:22
Homecoming Queen now in first Navan.
By:
silvergreaser
When: 28 May 11 14:30
Sometimes you feel almost chuffed when one of their sleeveen gambles get turned over.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 28 May 11 20:16
With respect you seem to miss the point.The gambles i am referring to happen when they have it hidden all day,mostly with a second string and the gamble starts when the horse is a decent price.It is the discipline i admire,the bookies grapevine is not working even the exchanges are off the scent and it is that that is the new development.Six of the gambles highlighted have yielded 14/1 7/1 7/2 6/1 9/2 and 11/1 winners.
By:
silvergreaser
When: 28 May 11 23:32
But sleeven eh wildman?
By:
silvergreaser
When: 28 May 11 23:32
sleeveen even
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 28 May 11 23:33
Apache over a mile and a half 2moro Wildman..they have 3 init...while bowing to your greater knowledge I did think Moore was educating Apache the last day and was not too pushed about where he placed in the finish...
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 29 May 11 00:40
Apache looks fast becoming a big dirty pig. Those 2 Montjeu's could spring a surprise. No telling how good they are.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 29 May 11 00:43
The Weld horse was sold for 650k by Kris Weld to Odgen and then re-sent back to Welds who bred it and has done sweet feck all. Weld's must have some bank account these days from selling.

That carribean sunset that used to race for him went for a small fortune at Keenland for a cool 1.25 million for lambe and mr weld got a nice cut from that.

Alas i move off topic
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 29 May 11 09:39
Ruby being GOD is easily 4GIVN
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 29 May 11 11:16
The extra 2 furlongs will suit Apache as all he does is stay.I cant see any plot here as Scribe ran very poorly in Dundalk and Cherokee Brave equally as badly in Tipperary.
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 29 May 11 13:08
All aboard Apache so lads  [;)]
By:
Giant Strides
When: 30 May 11 10:05
I digress.
After Secretary of State lost yesterday I decided to have a look back over APoBs seasonal results to date. That was his 19th runner to start at even money (only 2)or less in Ireland, and the 11th of said amount to lose! Now Apache (a previous culprit!)and F&G improved the record later on, but herein lies the problem.
The public don`t appreciate when the obvious ones are losing on a more regular basis than they should be, while the privileged few are on these very profitable, big priced gambles from their infancy. 
Not that they care of course what the public think!
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