Its hard to access Down because theyve not been on the TV since getting beaten by Tyrone, I remember though they gave Tyrone a good go and it went down to the last 2mins with Down trying to get a goal. Before that they played Donegal, and were very annoying giving the ball away and missing chances before drawing, Donegal traded odds on for the whole game nearly. In the Qualifiers they scraped past Longford by 4 and then offaly by 2, before trashing Sligo but sure we all know what happens to losing provincials. That makes it fairly difficult to know exactly what your getting from them - they could be good or they could be flattered by Sligo and be gash.
On the other side you know what you'll get from Kerry, classy, relaxed, calm football, with a bit of laziness throw in until the last 10mins. Theres a interesting stat, Kerry were 4pts down to Cork at HT twice before doing their stuff in the last 10, then they were also behind to Limerick at HT too. IMO they can win when they want so stroll around looking cool for most of the game until they need to score near the business end. Down/Kerry HT/FT is 6/1 - I had this bet in mind all week but was thinking maybe I'd get 7 or 8 with everyone thinking Kerry are certainties, 6/1 probably near enough to the true odds but Kerry certainly have the stats to back it up. I dont think its worth much, but surely worth a small bet. Down could easily get blown away but Kerry may take the laid back approach, Kerry to win either way IMO, although I'm not backing 30/100.
Like Kerry you know exactly what you'll get from Tyrone, hard work, defense, try keep the game down to as few scores as possible and score when you have the ball, keep the ball, tackle hard. 4/9 appeals because Dublin are gash, but their biggest problem seems to be wides and if they suddenly start getting the ball on target we could see a proper game. I still think Tyrone will have enough power even if that does happen, but for some reason I think we'll see bigger than 4/9 in running, there'll always be bias in the market when Dublin are playing.
I havent researched this myself but on TV last week the comms said that Dublin have won every single throw in at the start bar one game, first scoring play Dublin are 9/4 from play and 5/1 for a placed ball. The bleedin' obvious thing against that though is they'll put it wide being donkeys, €20 on 9/4, €5 cover on 5/1, dont think its worth any more than €25, if but they continue winning the ball well then theyre surely a little shorter to score the first point. Tyrone to win though, although theres a weird feeling in my head that Dublin have been winning while looking absolutely terrible, that they could do it again by some sort of fluke, just hope Tyrone play as well as they can then it should be lights out for the Dubs.