New Posts For Thread: Western Force vs Lions - big middle on hcpshttps://community.betfair.com/irish_sports/go/thread/view/94110/29954881/western-force-vs-lions---big-middle-on-hcpsWest Force +35.0 (Gen)Lions -30.0 (Stanley)Huge 4-point middle thereBoth are 10/11 so a loss is a strong possibility but very small depending on potential profitBasically getting 20/1 about the Lions winning by 31-34 pointsCatch up this debate at another time because as mrs marx said to karl there is a time to stop talking about money and actually start making some of it.https://community.betfair.com/irish_sports/go/thread/view/94110/29954881/western-force-vs-lions---big-middle-on-hcps?post_id=532877337#532877337Catch up this debate at another time because as mrs marx said to karl there is a time to stop talking about money and actually start making some of it.Fri, 07 Jun 2013 06:09:00 -0500Yes, it was clear the main difference between our betting strategies was that DB'S was based on expected value and mine was based on guaranteed profit. Over 100 bets DB'S expected value would average out. The problem he would have would be that he wohttps://community.betfair.com/irish_sports/go/thread/view/94110/29954881/western-force-vs-lions---big-middle-on-hcps?post_id=532877165#532877165Yes, it was clear the main difference between our betting strategies was that DB'S was based on expected value and mine was based on guaranteed profit. Over 100 bets DB'S expected value would average out. The problem he would have would be that he woFri, 07 Jun 2013 05:56:13 -0500Having read the rest of the thread ,one of ye is using expected value and the other is using the difference in probability.Using your example DB (.0909 * 20) - (.9091 * 1) = .9089(you're forgetting to include your stake in 9 winning bets)https://community.betfair.com/irish_sports/go/thread/view/94110/29954881/western-force-vs-lions---big-middle-on-hcps?post_id=532874911#532874911Having read the rest of the thread ,one of ye is using expected value and the other is using the difference in probability.Using your example DB (.0909 * 20) - (.9091 * 1) = .9089(you're forgetting to include your stake in 9 winning bets)Fri, 07 Jun 2013 01:50:39 -050010/1 odds = 9.09% chance Edge = 4.33%20/1 odds = 4.76% chanceEVS odds = 50.00% chance Edge = 7.85%8/11 odds = 57.85% chancehttps://community.betfair.com/irish_sports/go/thread/view/94110/29954881/western-force-vs-lions---big-middle-on-hcps?post_id=532873997#53287399710/1 odds = 9.09% chance Edge = 4.33%20/1 odds = 4.76% chanceEVS odds = 50.00% chance Edge = 7.85%8/11 odds = 57.85% chanceThu, 06 Jun 2013 23:45:07 -0500In my post i could have worded things in a different way. Same difference. I am backing an even money shot to win and then backing it not to win at 11/8. I am not laying it at 8/11. I am BACKING it at 11/8 to win providing a certain outcome happens whttps://community.betfair.com/irish_sports/go/thread/view/94110/29954881/western-force-vs-lions---big-middle-on-hcps?post_id=532869467#532869467In my post i could have worded things in a different way. Same difference. I am backing an even money shot to win and then backing it not to win at 11/8. I am not laying it at 8/11. I am BACKING it at 11/8 to win providing a certain outcome happens wThu, 06 Jun 2013 18:39:55 -0500we could be here all night but an interesting topic.it gets to the hearth of how to bet correctly.laters!good night to ya.https://community.betfair.com/irish_sports/go/thread/view/94110/29954881/western-force-vs-lions---big-middle-on-hcps?post_id=532869453#532869453we could be here all night but an interesting topic.it gets to the hearth of how to bet correctly.laters!good night to ya.Thu, 06 Jun 2013 18:39:20 -0500how am i laying?https://community.betfair.com/irish_sports/go/thread/view/94110/29954881/western-force-vs-lions---big-middle-on-hcps?post_id=532869273#532869273how am i laying?Thu, 06 Jun 2013 18:29:51 -0500but yre laying there.when yre laying an 8% edge on even money shots, will get a better return than 8% edge on 2-1 shots.https://community.betfair.com/irish_sports/go/thread/view/94110/29954881/western-force-vs-lions---big-middle-on-hcps?post_id=532869013#532869013but yre laying there.when yre laying an 8% edge on even money shots, will get a better return than 8% edge on 2-1 shots.Thu, 06 Jun 2013 18:11:50 -0500i put up a post timed at 21.18 tonight. What part of it would you disagree with.https://community.betfair.com/irish_sports/go/thread/view/94110/29954881/western-force-vs-lions---big-middle-on-hcps?post_id=532868795#532868795i put up a post timed at 21.18 tonight. What part of it would you disagree with.Thu, 06 Jun 2013 17:56:12 -0500Okay Kingrat i am following you but can you please expand a little.https://community.betfair.com/irish_sports/go/thread/view/94110/29954881/western-force-vs-lions---big-middle-on-hcps?post_id=532868757#532868757Okay Kingrat i am following you but can you please expand a little.Thu, 06 Jun 2013 17:53:04 -0500