Start Of The Jumps

Couple of horses I like tomorrow - but both running on the wrong ground - Cadell and Plantorama. Maybe they will both be pulled. Cadell would have at least an each-way chance on good ground, and Platorama would be very hard to beat on a similar surface. They took out Plantorama at Lingfield the other day, perhaps they will try and get away with it in a weaker race. As I said last time the prices with the bookmakers would be the same whatever the ground. 5/2 a steal on good ground, on soft, not so sure.

Cadell is an interesting choice in what looks a very hot race. If you look at the runs of Handstands in the Sidney Banks and Welcome to Cartries in the River Don, they both read very well. They don't have chase experience which could be a big disadvantage but then you look at the highest rated in the race, Resplendent Glory, who has 2 good chase runs recently. Cadell has to improve and on good ground I agree he might but on soft it seems unlikely. I will take a chance with Welcome to Cartries. We will also find out if Quebecois is as good as he looked at Chepstow in the 1.58 at Sandown.

Just to clarify I am not backing Cadell. I hope they take him out. Trainer states 'hope it doesn't get too soft'. It already is. 

Surprised that Jurancon isn't running in the novice hurdle at Sandown.

plenty of trainers would be happy with a winner a day
your not a trainer your a punter if your backing blind your backing all the losers as well

Agree about Jurancon. Today is a very low target but could increase penalties next time.

I am not a trainer but I have been an owner and try to read trainers minds.

Not taken Cadell out yet, but the 12/1 and drifting should give them a clue. Plantaroma uneasy.

Looking ahead to tomorrow I think Navan is by far the most interesting card. Big fields and probably lots of potential on view. Lots of threadbare stuff over here.

In the 2.33 at Sandown, Handstands doesn't strike me as a 3 miler. Thought he'd be more a 2 and half miler and jumping out making all type horse and maybe going down in trip

Backing Moorland Rambler E/W in the 1st at Exeter. Been running over fences which didn't seem to suit, should be fit now as had 2 runs this season, goes on the ground and course winner. Best Jock in the race and can see this coming through from 2 out and running on for a place at least.

Very disappointing Plantaroma getting beat that thing, finished very weakly and another McCain horse stopping as though it's been shot.
Maghlaak, the handicapper should tell them to get lost and not give it a mark. Never put in the race and ridden behind other horses

The difference that ground makes. A pathetic performance from Plantaroma. Probably ran more than a stone or more below the Chepstow form. Even jumped much better than the winner, but that made zero difference.

wd with Moorland Rambler. I am pleased to see that Lowrys Bar has been backed. The stable form is erratic at best but this is the best horse in the yard imo. Lowry Bar, Quebecois and Welcome To Cartries my only bets today. I took 7.4 about Rubaud yesterday for tomorrow at Sandown and I am amazed that it has drifted to 9. If it can jump well it should beat that lot.

Made very hard work of it but Lowry's Bar was brave on the run in. first 2 well clear.

Had a small ew bet on Stormy Flight

That was a brave bet. Jeremy Scott has been quiet but Exeter is one of his stamping grounds.

Yeh, just a course form/speed figure stab

Quebecois well beaten by what must be a very good horse in Bill Joyce. The rest were beaten miles.

I think the rest were beaten miles because of the ground rather than it being a strong form pointer. Bill Joyce too much class for Quebecois. He just looks slow, and that's the second time he has been found out upped in class. Bill Joyce did enough to warrant entries in the Turners and Albert Bartlett. Can't even see a quote for the latter race, but you would imagine he should almost be favourite, although you would think he would stay at the shorter trip for the time being.

Favourite to be the first GB horse home but Henry, Willie and Gordon might have 5 or 6 better ones in Ireland. Another Henderson bubble badly dented there.

I don't think that's so obvious this year, certainly not so far.

Denemethy. Anyone got a clue what O'Brien has been doing since he got this horse? He made all, jumping well, to win his point, beating Lowry's Bar. Since then he has run him over the wrong trip, and held him up at the back. It looks clueless stuff.

Talking of clueless trainers. Plataroma and Cadell, two long trips for nothing.

I was impressed with Handstands, enough to back him for the Brown Advisory. He travelled and jumped very well, and stayed on strongly. Only negative at this stage would be his form being mainly right handed.

Sage, I would imagine the drift on Rubaud is down to the likely soft ground, as he needs a decent surface. (If the meeting goes ahead)

Bill Joyce inserted at 20/1 for the Albert Bartlett. Oddschecker lagging behind.

All the Welsh league football has been called off already for tomorrow. Chepstow looks highly unlikely to go ahead and I would imagine all the other jumps fixtures are worse than 50/50 as the winds are forecast to be terrible.

Wetherby inspecting again at 7am

True brandy and with loads of rain forecast Rubaud might not run even if he meeting is on.

Wouldn't say Tom Symonds was clueless. The horse Plantaroma got beat by an improving horse (gave a Willie Mullins one a scare lto) and beat the rest by 13L and more

So in your opinion Plantaroma reproduced the Chepstow run? Mr Escobar isn't very good, he had lost his last ten. He came over here for a reason. Winner probably improved for the ground, but he doesn't jump well and at the moment is no great shakes. The two horses that Plantaroma finished second to on good ground, Royal Infantry and Anno Power are much better than today's winner. The favourite has run way below, and it was predictable that might happen. As I said it was a get away with it mission. For me you don't do that with your better horses. You simply wait for optimum conditions.

Sober Glory trotted up in the bumper, despite the ride. Had there been anything useful in the race he might have been in trouble.

Plantaroma went to Sedgefield for a reason as unlikely to win a novice in the South.
The ground today was good to soft so perfect conditions for Plantaroma
Don't think the trainer is an idiot, just bumped in to one that may be improving.

differentdrum

I don't think that's so obvious this year, certainly not so far.

Denemethy. Anyone got a clue what O'Brien has been doing since he got this horse? He made all, jumping well, to win his point, beating Lowry's Bar. Since then he has run him over the wrong trip, and held him up at the back. It looks clueless stuff.

Talking of clueless trainers. Plataroma and Cadell, two long trips for nothing.

I was impressed with Handstands, enough to back him for the Brown Advisory. He travelled and jumped very well, and stayed on strongly. Only negative at this stage would be his form being mainly right handed.


Did it not win impressivey held up over 2m at Wincanton ?

I think it will win soon. A strongly run race on heavy ground over 2m or over 2m 4f. Looks like it has to go right handed. Jumped well today but blew up

Denemethy,

Yes, he won an ordinary race at Wincanton, I think despite the ride, not because of it. He was far more impressive in that point beating a better horse, and ridden in a completely different manner. That's the best piece of form he has got so why is he even messing about over two miles? Obviously, given the chance I think he should be doing a good deal better. 

mfw,

I couldn't disagree more, but don't really want to get bogged down on one horse. The Chepstow form would mean she could win an ordinary novice hurdle in the south on good ground, mares, or in open company. Everything about her form suggests she is best on good ground. The Racing Post results gives the ground as soft which is supported by the time.

Nemean Lion carrying top weight but can see him running well in this.
Do think there's another good race in this horse & did win 1ST time out
last season,@ Fos Las.He is giving quite a bit of weight away to the field
but past Wnrs have shouldered big weights in this.£26K top wack so hopefully
he should be fairly fit.
Jonbon should've come on for the Cheltenham win,Tingle Creek his to lose,to
me & looking for a good performance,that's if the meeting gets the go ahead.
   GL ALL

Little run through of Navan as it seems the most likely card to survive.

It's guesswork with Mullins' french imports, some hit the jackpot, but some don't. You wouldn't have thought this one would have to be that good to take the opener. Magic Boum's point form looks modest enough, and I would prefer Eastern Legend for the forecast. Well beaten last time, but that looked a much better race than this. Of the pointers in the second race, I would prefer Goraibhmaithagat. Unfortunately, too short to back as trainer and jock are hefty negatives. Echoing Silence cost a fortune, but the form looks pretty weak. Autoportrait, another expensive purchase, but again the form doesn't look great. Very questionable why you would send a decent one to Morris. I didn't think the exposed bumper horses were that good last year so I wouldn't be rushing to take short odds on Jasmin De Vaux. I would be more inclined to look at Workahead each-way. Off the track for quite a while, but the form of his easy point win has worked out well. Ballyburn's full sister, Meetmeinstlouis, makes her debut, but again it's Morris so quite unlikely she will be involved. I have backed Will The Wise each-way in the hope that he ran into a good one last time, and the step up in trip will be a big plus. The Yellow Clay has been good, but not sure he is unbeatable. I did look at Gaoth Chuil in the staying handicap, but perhaps the concession to a few less exposed rivals might be too much. The handicap chase looks too difficult. Arctic Bresil has been a consistent disappointment, but one day he might just pop up. The out of form Torrens takes the ride. I will probably back something in the novice chance, but haven't quite made up my mind. Likely it won't be No Flies On Him, but it will interesting to see if jock tries any harder than he did first time over fences. He Can't Dance priced up as a penalty kick in the bumper. Will he run this time?

Not a single name that I recognise at Navan so if GB is all off I will have a break even day.

Correction. My old friend Lucid Dreams is out again so I will risk a place only.

Wetherby on, but it's a poor card. Most interest for me is Big Zouk. Trainer had a 1/1 pointer run well at Haydock, but that was over three miles. That said this is a poor race, and he wouldn't have to be that good to be competitive. Desert Orchid colours make an appearance in the closing bumper.

As I suggested earlier in the week, I don't think Sandown affords many betting opportinities, if any. You would think Honky Tonk Highway should be good enough if she reproduces her Warwick run. Drops in trip, but given the conditions that shouldn't be an issue. The french import the unknown, but that one is pretty weak at the moment. Skelton also has the obvious one in the novice chase. In what looks like it will be a strongly run race, L'Eau Du Sud should be capable of picking up the pieces. Short priced double for Skelton, or a couple of bookmaker specials? Not that enticing. Jonbon seems to be at his best at Sandown, and testing ground hasn't been any issue in the past. He should win, but again another short one.

Update on Navan. Eastern Legend halved in price, each-way prices on Workahead gone, and Will The Wise very weak. Given I have backed it, not sure why that would be, but you never know with Cromwell.

Reagrds yesterday I couldn't have go Handstands more wrong, the only thing I did get right about him that he would be better bowling along at the front end. Quite impressed with him and something around Ascot would be a good fit for him.

I thought the Winter novice hurdle yesterday was dominated by the two horses who would have appreciated the soft going.
However, Proform have the hurdles course as good to soft yesterday.

Presumably, you mean the Reynoldstown? Yes, that would seem likely, and then the Brown Advisory. Although he has been winning right handed it appeared to me he was jumping straight.

Added Backtonormal in the Navan novice chase. It was that or Waterford Whispers, and the selection is the bigger price, and has the benefit of a run. Another upped in trip. Ile Atlantique was clumsy enough over hurdles, and the second favourite returns after a long absence with an ordinary amateur on board.

Backed JPR One at 20 yesterday which seemed generous and already laid off at 14. A 6/1 free bet just in case Jonbon is not in his usual form. Can't see anything else being competitive in the Tingle. Hartington and Knickerbockerglory my other Sandown bets.

Big Zouk the first reverse for punters. Absolutely smashed up, but looked laboured throughout. Also jumped slightly right. Far less promise than the one that ran in a much better race at Haydock. Will have to hope the horse wants better ground, but had won his point on testing ground.

beauty of earlier starts your best bets are in the bin before the 2nd race at hackney dogs hard even been run back in the day

Added Goraibhmaithaghat each-way 4 places now that it has doubled in price. Soon know it's fate when you see where it lines up.

Mullins favourite on the floor early and a sad end for one of the also rans with a broken hind leg Emotional Roller my only play at Wetherby. Sue Smith finally showing a bit of form.

Emotional Roller worth a try over further but that was a weak race.

Doubt Bolger would've been too happy with O'Sullivans ride there. Race was his for the taking after the fav went and he got in behind other horses on a stayer and looked as though he didn't know where to go down the straight.

Well done dd. That won fairly easily in the end.

OP
Nice Wnr there.
   wd
    GL

Fantastic DD. Great stuff was cheering you on there.

nice win drum

Thanks, I needed a winner. Travelled very well, and I thought he had the race won turning in. He knew what he was doing in his point, and same again today. Won both with something in hand.

Agree about O'Sullivan in the first. Only asked for maximum when he had no chance of winning. Horse is only small, and didn't jump very well. The winner has far more scope to go on.

Very hard work for Honky Tonk Highway. Not fluent, gets in too deep.

Great pick dd, well done

Jasmin De Vaux has got an engine but wouldn't be for me over hurdles watching that.

Jasmin looked beaten until going to the last but then it won fairly easily. Needs to be slicker over hurdles but certainly has an engine. Very hard to judge the quality of novice hurdlers until they run again in a smaller field.

Too much Hislop. We didn't need both Skelton interviews which meant virtually no preview of the Navan race.

Jasmin De Vaux not impressive, particularly for a long odds on shot. It looked as if Workahead came to win his race, and got tired on the run to the last. Meetmeinstlouis showed up well enough to suggest she will find a race.

The Yellow Clay fell over the line, and confirmed he is useful, but certainly no worldbeater. I was quite happy with Will The Wise in running, but he has stopped to nothing once the race really started. The market seemed to know. I cashed out my Backtonormal bet after this race, and it subsequently, bombed as well. Cromwell stable in and out at the best of times, but on this evidence they are not right. La Malmason probably got away with it because she barely had to come off the bridle to win. Gaoth Chuil rewarded each-way backers, but as I suggested found a few too good. It looks as if she needs a bit of help from the handicapper. Arctic Bresil jumped terrible, and was never put in the race. Early days, but Ile Atlantique looked a better chaser than hurdler. He looked as if three miles might suit him even better. The favourite got the job done in the bumper. The second and third both finished their races off, and it will be interesting to see if they frank the form.

The three shorties got the job done at Sandown. Jonbon looks a different horse at Sandown. Quilixios deserved his second, but was outclassed. Don't think Gordon Elliott will be too disappointed with the Henry VIII as I suspect Firefox would be considered to be a good bit better than Touch Ne Not. That horse was beaten less than four lengths after one horrendous mistake. More of a concern for Elliott might be the jockey situation.

It's very irritating listening to Stanley and Nevison at the best of times, but do we really need these jumping figures? If your eyes can't tell you whether a horse is jumping well/badly then it's time to think about giving up. Let's have some stats on trainers who have their horses held up in slowly run races, send out horses half-baked etc. That wouldn't do though would it, as you might be criticising humans instead of horses?

Horses don't have lawyers dd. Jonbon seems to still be improving but the opposition outside of Ireland is rather weak.

Mullins just got 6 of the 1st 7 in the betting in the hillyway tomorrow

Does anyone know who trains Leaky Cauldron? Won a point for Colin Bowe at the start of last season (five out of the next six home have subsequently run well), but didn't go through the sales ring. Bookmakers have quoted across the board for the Festival Bumper although that would seem unlikely as he is nearly 6, and yet to run under rules.

Things must be getting bad when I bother to look at the Huntingdon bumper but with the gale still blowing outside here goes. It is a listed mares bumper with no penalties for the winners in the race. The 4 principles would appear to be: Kapability RPR 116 TS90, High Haven RPR 116 TS61, Supreme Malinas RPR 110 and St Irene RPR 113 TS 102. The first 2 are unbeaten in one run while St Irene won her first but was then sixth in a very hot Cheltenham mares bumper just behind a Mullins winner from Ireland. She was in second place a furlong out that day and weakened up the hill. I took 18 about St Irene yesterday as she seems almost as good as the other 2 but a very different price.

No bet today.

I left the bumper on the basis it wasn't easy to rule too many out. I know Cobden won on the favourite, but he is also very capable of messing up on outside rides, including for Honeyball. Supreme Malinas got a terrible ride last time. St Irene was 25/1 last night, and now 10/1. Ground an unknown.

Only really interested in Only By Night at Cork. She beat the boys first start over fences, and should be favourite. Instead she is third favourite which indicates the current lack of confidence in the Cromwell stable. She is a bridle horse so maybe, similarly to La Malmason, she might be able to get away with it.

Will the rarely seen Ferny Hollow turn over Energumene, and will Banbridge turn in another woeful performance?

I did ask Bet365 for a price on Goraibhmaithagat for the Albert Bartlett, but the reply came back saying they couldn't offer one. Not the first time, but bonkers/embarrassing. How difficult would it be just to say 40 or 50/1? They know my bets are relatively small, what are they worried about? In all honesty he might well be better at shorter, even though his attitude of just doing enough, might suit the longer race.

Why has Woods got the ride on Diva Luna tomorrow? Must be laughing, already got the rides on the Megson horses. In contrast, Jones must be fuming. How can you be half a stable jock? Pauling should have made a clean break.

Backed Theyseekhimthere last night at 20s , not for homage to the Kinks but because I thought it might be a few pounds better than its first novice win in Nov 23 after another wind op . Of course as a mug punter , didnt notice today was a chase .....But still , at least the world agreed .

Poor ride from Jones in the opener at Huntingdon. Given his mount was consistently losing ground jumping needed to show much more urgency to try and get upsides two out. Had he done so it would have been close. He was never going to make up 4-5 lengths in such a short space of time.

Sky Lord, nicely bred, and looked above average. Well ridden, but probably just better than the favourite.

Only By Night did win on the bridle. Just to repeat what I said after the first win, let's hope she can see out her season this time. On that evidence she wouldn't be out of place in an Arkle. Better that than stepping up in trip. As per usual, bookmakers no imagination, and only quoting her for the Mares'. She is so obviously speed over stamina.

Djelo made a couple of supposed Grade 1 horses look like plodders. He isn't a Grade 1 so the others very disappointing.

I don't like to see jocks falling off, but given his pathetic performance last time, it would have been a disgrace had Banbridge prevailed for bookmakers favourite, Joseph O'Brien.

Where do you think that puts Energumene compared to Jonbon? It is hard to come back to where he was and Dinoblue had to concede weight but I would make it Evens each of 2 between them.

If it was at Sandown, you would be all over Jonbon, but he seems to have more problems with the fences at Cheltenham. At the prices I wouldn't be rushing to back either. Gaelic Warrior not exactly what you would call a safe bet. I was hoping Ferny Hollow might have shown a little more - he would have been fourth or fifth - but it's probably odds on he won't make it. I would imagine that Banbridge will turn up, but which version?

Supreme Malinas, surprise surprise, ridden completely differently, won a shade comfortably, despite Skelton coming close to departing. St Irene, picked up the pieces, aided by a wayward Kapability and Cobden. Another outside ride, another duffer.

I don't think that St Irene was helped by the heavy rain which increased the stamina required. She was also ridden from the rear which didn't help. The winner ran on really well. I did lay off so no harm done and she will win a normal bumper if given the chance.

Any reason for not backing it each-way? It was available at 25/1 last night, and even at 18/1 you could have made a tidy profit?

Very little to get excited about today ahead of a very good midweek card at Punchestown tomorrow. Smokeringinthedark was the horse who, had he not jumped so badly, would have beaten Orderoftheday (creditable effort in a bumper a few days ago) in his point. Diva Luna the main interest at Lingfield. Mumbles has probably got the most pronounced soft ground action you could see, but hasn't always delivered on that surface - 2/6 on heavy.

so how do you get excited about bumpers at gaff tracks  which are now basically legalized schooling sessions ?

After Venetia's only runner yesterday, Djelo, cruised in the Peterborough Chase, she's got one runner again today... 2.30 Lingfield... Haute Folin... Won first time out a year ago, then pulled up 3 times in the spring... First time maybe the time to catch him... Got 5s on here earlier, trading about a point shorter now
In the same race, Kim has Imperial Hurricane which has been off 20 months... Was some 12s plus on here earlier, been backed into 8s now

Should leave the race alone but can't help getting involved

GL all

I agree that aspect has got worse with supposed top trainers taking them less seriously, than they once did. Henderson the very obvious example. That said plenty of the sport is guesswork with lots of horses being sent out for a run round. The sport just isn't policed properly, but that's what punters have to put up with on a daily basis. The sport doesn't want punters to win, at least not on a consistent basis. Personally, I much prefer races where bookmakers have less to go on. You have to put the work in, but it's still just about possible to win. Some people get excited about veterans' races. I have never understood that. Why would you want to bet on races where you could easily get a different result if the race was run the following day? Some pundits get very excited about difficult handicaps. Great when you solve one, but let's forget about all the times you don't. It boils down to personal choice, and doing what you are best at.

FYI

In a stable interview the trainer says that Diva Luna is the best novice mare in the country! A bold statement, if true it should win this in 2nd gear.

Trainer doesn't talk his horses down so I would take with a large amount of salt.

Just caught the backend of Hayley Moore talking to Patrick Mullins. I am assuming she didn't even bother to ask about Ferny Hollow?

Bumper winner quite impressive in what was probably a pretty weak race. I rarely back flat breds in any jump race, but he had by far the best pedigree in that race. Lots of black type winners.

Dec 9, 2024 -- 6:43AM, differentdrum wrote:

Bumper winner quite impressive in what was probably a pretty weak race. I rarely back flat breds in any jump race, but he had by far the best pedigree in that race. Lots of black type winners.

Fair play to the Goon Show on Sky for their in depth analysis of why the 1/4 shot was last

Ben Pauling, dear oh dear. It didn't look as if Woods didn't make anywhere near enough use of a relatively easy lead. Don't suppose the useless Moore asked why the stable jock wasn't riding?

Mumbles managed to fool punters again with a woeful effort.

Quite a promising debut from Smokeringinthedark who attracted a little bit of support. Fortunately, jumped a little better as the race progressed. That said looked as if the jock on the favourite arrived about a furlong too soon.

Pauling was over the moon with the run, happy as Larry.
It's not clear who is the stable jockey as Woods seems to ride as many as Jones.

Sad news about Ferny Hollow. If he 'passed away from his injuries shortly afterwards' why has it taken 24 hours to announce? Unfortunately, I will have to remember him as my worst ever cash out. I backed him for the Bumper on the strength of his impressive point win, but cashed out a 25/1 ticket after he looked very wayward in his initial bumpers.

Two early each-way bets for Punchestown. Dancing City has three Grade 1 wins, but at no stage did I think I can't wait to see him over a fence. At 7, I am a little surprised, given how uncompetitive the Stayers division is, that they didn't at least try him down that route. If it goes pear-shaped perhaps they will. I backed Shannon Royale at double figures yesterday on the basis that if he reproduces his chasing debut, he should at least be in the mix for a place. That looked a step up on his hurdles form. Probably worth keeping an eye on Buachaillbocht to see if the step up in trip, and slower ground makes a significant difference. The Great Nudie ran away with a late season point. Although she probably didn't beat much, it was perhaps surprising that she wasn't sold on. It's a family that has had more misses than hits, but it does trace back to The Dikler. I had her down as a good ground horse, but she was disappointing in two bumpers on a quicker surface. Upped in trip for her hurdling debut, and on much softer ground, I thought she did well to see off the Mullins favourite, the pair clear. Her jumping was sharp, and it was to her disadvantage that flights were omitted. Double figures looks reasonable.

dd going back to St Irene, I only bet on the exchange so it is always a separate bet for a place and the odds from memory were not that good for a place. Liquidity place only is not as good as the win so it is much harder to trade out. With hindsight place was the bet but I still think the win bet looked value the day before. Yesterday was as dire as it gets and I am getting rather worried about the kind of racing being served up. I very rarely look at Ireland these days but I do watch French flat racing.

Both of mine quite weak. Perhaps the market thinks they want softer ground? Not so sure with The Great Nudie. That improvement could easily have come from the step up in trip, and a professional jock.

Only race I was interested in other here was whether Hollygrove Cha Cha would remain unbeaten. Katira Du Mestivel has been strong, weak, and now strong again in the market. Not sure the point form is much good. She was headed and beaten when coming down at the last in her point. The winner, Easy Love, was a disappointing favourite in her bumper, looking pretty slow. The leader also ran out at the second last in that point. I would be disappointed if the favourite didn't win again.

I was quite impressed with Dancing City, enough to take the double figure price for the Brown Advisory. His jumping was the best of the four. That said, had it have been softer, Shannon Royale might have got even closer. Not sure what Gary O'Brien was watching, but he closed all the way to the line. Another solid effort, and one each-way landed. Olympic Man travelled very strongly.

Agree with Dancing City, looked pretty good and Townsed was confident enough to go on with him. Will take some beating no idea what Mullins will run against him at this point. Good starting point

The Great Nudie doubled in price. For a fair amount of that race she appeared to travel as well as anything, but was eventually outpaced from two out. So perhaps up in trip, or softer ground. She's only small, but she can win again.

Decent performance from Jingko Blue beating those on debut and giving weight away. Surely have a look at a graded race after that. Scilly Isles maybe

Dancing City is entered in the Long Distance Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, 8/1 available.

Hollygrove Cha Cha made life much more difficult for herself by jumping so badly. That would be exposed upped in class. 4/4 But remains very much a work in progress.

Another bridle job for Cromwell in the last at Punchestown. Glenashling had earlier looked a big, slow boat. A long way removed from Special Tiara.

Dancing City now no better than 8/1 for the Brown Advisory. Mullins will have any number he can run in a particular novice chase prior to then.

Very little to excite tomorrow. Can the not so big I've Madeupmymind make up for her latest bumper debacle? Not so sure, although she gets a stone from the second favourite. Doctor On Call probably the most reliable option in the bumper as you never know what Skelton will be up to. Looks as if it's the Courage colours on Cuillin Ridge.

Now the Turner's is no more, isn't the 5/1 about Ballyburn for the Brown Advisory a little too tempting, isn't it a case of deciding what price is big enough to take in the hope that further races over the minimum trip begin to highlight/suggest that it is now time to step him up in trip ?

Ballyburn was never a Champion Hurdler. That was always a lot of wasted breath, generated by a combination of media and the trainer making his usual wishy washy statements. Anyone but Mullins and he wouldn't be an Arkle horse either. He doesn't need to be running over two miles again. The Turners would probably have been his race so it then comes down to how much they actually need to run at Cheltenham. If he were mine I would miss it, and go for the Grade 1 at Fairyhouse instead. The trainer has others for the Brown Advisory including today's winner. You could come out and say that now, but chances are Mullins will not declare his thinking until a few weeks before the Festival so the same ridiculous scenario will play out as it does every year.

What makes you think that Ballyburn wont turn up in the Arkle?

I am not saying he won't, with Mullins anything is possible. He has usually gone down the shuffling the pack route, rather than choosing the best race for the individual horse. He chose the right race for Ballyburn last season, but was still whinging about not winning the Supreme. He should have been more than satisfied that his best novice had produced one the best displays of the meeting. I think you train Ballyburn as future Gold Cup horse, and trying to get away with it over two miles would be a mistake. As others have now pointed out last year's novices don't look that good. That's probably why he got away with it over hurdles. It doesn't mean the same will happen over fences.

Obviously if Mullins decides to run Ballyburn over two miles then it wont be a mistake, he is the maestro.

Time will tell. I tend to believe anyone can make a mistake, and that includes Mullins. I assume you have backed him for the Arkle? Unlike last year, I haven't backed him for either race. Too dangerous, might not be good enough, might not turn up.

No, I wouldnt dream of backing any Mullins horse anti post, best to wait until they are actually declared close to the race day, although I do think that the Arkle is the way they will go.