Start Of The Jumps

It is clear that at least some of the horses are not healthy. You don't get many of his out of the first 4 when things are going well but now we have seen 7 pulled up in a week and many others stopping quickly from 3 out. There will always be outliers which run well or even win and a casual glance at the stat of 7 wins from 56 might not seem that bad but it covers up the number that are running really well below form. Skeltons had a big success with A New Lion but 5 from 47 is also below par until you look at the number of placings and there are very few getting tailed off or pulled up. Every yard has these spells but the trick is to know how to deal with it. Harry Derham has had a very different experience with his gallops being destroyed by the flooding a while back. Once he is back firing he could have a flood of winners.

Other than Stay Gold, who I think would have finished in the five, it was a poor punting day yesterday. Today looks horrible and any bet at all might well be a mistake.

I cashed out Harbour Highway last night for no loss. I didn't want to be involved with one of JP's that looked like it was being supported, and then very quickly drifts back out to bigger than it should be.

So it's an exercise in having a small interest, and trying to keep losses to a minimum. In the opener at Kelso I have gone with Far From Over without the favourite. A little improvement on seasonal debut should put him in the mix. I have persuaded myself to back Brighterdaysahead. In an ideal world you could back her each-way, but trying to actually win the race might well let in one of the rags. Bookmakers delighted if it does. In the last I have gone with William Butler, again without the favourite. He has been very weak in the market, but has a reasonable pedigree, and although looking pretty clueless on debut, he eventually finished very strongly. Obviously, a concern about the inexperienced jock. I did consider Jus De Citron in a tight little race at Doncaster, but the jock/trainer combination are not in form, and the horse may have had a problem. He finished very tamely (having looked the winner) in his last point, and a tongue tie is fitted today.

Most of De Bromhead's running very solid races re ently, has some good chances today.

I did back Matuana as I thought that a 3yo would not take much getting fit. She was lucky with the fav falling but that could be the start of a Derham revival. Not all at once of course but Pyffo has some decent recent form so should also be fit enough in the 2.47. Suzuka my other bet today but not over jumps. I can never resist those colours.

So why not make the case for the winner before the race?

Nice to start with a 'winner'. No match for the favourite in the end, but comfortably second best. Needs to jump a bit better, but should be up to winning one of these.

Argento Boy jumped very poorly, and blew out completely.

Two nasty reverses for favourite backers in the first two at Leopardstown. Ballybrittas one to watch if/when they put a proper jock on board. Much too free.

I did mention the Derham news earlier and made a last minute decision to back and lay it. Only one to beat and that fell. I don't spend as much time as you studying form dd. My bets are often made after the off on impulse and typically laid off for 1 or 2 point profit. I have not even looked at any of the Irish racing today as I have family coming so only popping back to the TV every now and again. And Derham has just won again with a horse that had not run for ages which is why I ignored it. His flood has started today. Jus de Citron should improve a lot.

I did give Jus De Citron a good mention, but the stable wasn't in form before today. I haven't seen the race. A lot of my preparation is in the head/intuition.

Loved that from Brighterdaysahead. It's great when a plan comes off. State Man might have been below his best, but he has had it too easy for too long. His overall record is a reflection of the lack of opposition. The Champion Hurdle is far from over as some people suggested after the Christmas Hurdle.

Big Stage was lucky not to be brought down twice, but clearly didn't stay. Dropped in trip he could be one for the new novices' handicap chase.

Very happy with 2/2 today so cashed out the William Butler bet.

I flagged Sam Ewing up earlier in the season when he was just beaten on Shannon Royale. Brighterdaysahead has just produced by far her best performance with him on board. I don't believe in giving jocks sympathy votes, he should stay on board. Kennedy has been injured far too many times. It's hard to believe you can be unlucky that many times. The price for the Champion Hurdle looks too big to me. Surely Mullins will commit Lossiemouth as well. State Man looks washed up, and is much too short. He only won last year because they deliberately diverted Lossiemouth to allow him his one win. We have already seen that Constitution Hill is a weak stayer upped in trip. How much will he find in a strongly run race if they get him off the bridle? Given how fragile he is, and the strength of the opposition, he is now much too short.

Agree Diff. I’m happy whichever race Brighter goes in now. Thinks she wins either whatever runs.

What's a weak stayer upped in trip got to do with a 2M race?
Constitution Hill will win what ever the pace of the race is.
They all turn up 100%,by far the best horse in the race.State
Man clearly not right today.

You appear to be all over Constitution Hill as your previous comments after the Christmas Hurdle confirm. Personally, I think you are massively over confident.

Even at his best, which for me is open to debate, I think he is going to need to see his race out strongly. Both Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth will be better opponents than he has met before. I think it's worth pointing out the only time he has been upped in trip he hasn't looked at all impressive. I think that's worth pointing out, you don't, fine.

I only saw the last half mile of the Irish hurdle so no idea how State Man got 30 lengths behind by then. Didn't look as if Townend made more than nominal effort from the turn in. Winterfog finished about the right distance behind Brighterdaysahead so State Man ran 20lb below form.

Sir Gino would laugh at any of them but now he has run and won over fences there is no going back.

2 completely different types of race.Nothing to do with a 2M Chmpn Hdle.

Townend made made minimal effort because the horse had nothing to offer. Do you honestly believe he just gave away finishing second?

Terrific effort from Maxxum over a trip short of his best. In a weak renewal worth a Stayers entry.

He may well have known that State Man had nothing to offer from half way but he showed no obvious effort to ask the horse to do anything in the part I saw. Like many Mullins horses as well as Nicholls and others, some of his older horses are running below form-apart from Galopin des Champs who ran the most impressive race I have seen from any horse since he won the Gold Cup in March. When looking at March, some of the weekend form could be very unhelpful.
penzance, Sir Gino won the Fighting Fifth in a canter and galloped all over CH in a private gallop. I happen to think he is the best we have seen in years.

I think you need to see the whole race. They went quick and State Man couldn't live with it. Had he tried to chase he would have finished even further behind.

Farce of a race for the bumper. I made the right call on William Butler, but I wouldn't give up on him. He was clueless when they quickened, but he has finished better than anything bar the winner. Koktail Brut disappointing. Winner nicely bred with plenty of winners under both codes, and clearly has a good change of pace. Boost for Amen Kate. The bumper division has yet to sort itself out.

18 months ago constitution hill was winning the
gold cup 3 mile 2
ascot gold cup 2 mile 4
and the boat race 4.5 miles
now he,s a weaker finisher  at 2 miles

Again a really poor day tomorrow.

Just one bet, Clondaw Royale extra places in the Haydock opener. Second run back over hurdles. Only win for a claimer, and still young enough to improve. Trip is the (big) question mark. Price has gone, but Bet365 still out on a limb.

Dec 29, 2024 -- 3:11AM, MJK wrote:

Dec 28, 2024 --  7:17PM, sageform wrote:Regents Stroll was keen to post, pulled very hard and in the end was not far off second. Give him his head in a truly run 2 miles race. But even if he won,it would make him even keener the next time.Nicholls saying that he's not convinced everything is right with the stable. Making excuses or a genuine concern? Not what odds on backers want to hear if they plan on lumping on Insurrection today.

Total blowout again. Hopefully not too many lumped on.

Anyone know why Ewing isn't riding at Punchestown on Tuesday? Unfortunately, Gainford jocked up on Shannon Royale.

Had to chuckle when I read about Mullins talking about upping Ballyburn in trip as if he had just discovered the wheel. 'People were saying before that he could be a Champion Hurdle horse...' Wasn't that you, and the media clowns just followed? Isn't it you that decided to run a staying horse three times over two miles? Aren't you the reason the horse has two defeats on his record? Lovely piece of attempted blame shifting.

Suspended

Is this a quiz? What's suspended?

Apologies, too tied up with Mullins.

You asked a question.
He's suspended.

Thanks, for some strange reason I was initially thinking a race market had been suspended.

I could cash out my Clondaw Royale bet for a nice profit, but it's small enough to just let it run. All about whether he can get home on the ground. Fingers crossed.

A Couple of interest in  HC chases today.

Happy And Fine (2.30 HAY) - Won this last year in a good time in similar conditions and tends to go well fresh. Looks a little over-priced.

School For Scandal (3.27 Tau) - won over C&D on his penultimate start in a fast time to follow up the Wincanton win. Might have got bogged down in the mud last time but ran well for a long time and drying ground will be in his favour today. A prominent ride might make him hard to peg back and he has been well backed this morning.

GL today

Lucky talking his usual amount of cheerleading twaddle. Thankfully, I will only dip in and out today, more out than in.

Just to correct what's been written and talked about in the media. I watched the interview with Michael O'Leary and he wasn't adamant about where Brighterdaysahead would end up going. Media making it sound as if was 90/10 in favour of the Mares' when it was more like 60/40. Whatever, it will be a great shame if both the mares don't turn up for the Champion Hurdle.

*Happy And Fine 1.30 not 2.30

good shout dd
clondaw !!!

Great call DD

Well done dd with Clondaw Royal. 10lb allowance much more important than having a top jockey although he rode it fine.

WD dd but Bushy Park was traveling much the best when it fell.

Thanks 25/1-11/4. Jumping sketchy for most of the race, but jumped well up the straight. If only that happened all the time.

Excellent pick at the price nonetheless

Nice performance from Laganhill. Looks fine, nice pedigree, where has he been, and why haven't they managed to sell him? Shouldn't have too much trouble in that direction now.

Henry Daly has been on a bit of a roll and Stan Shepherd is underestimated imo. 2 big yards in opposition skewed the odds but I am not really betting today.

Nice performance from Hollygrove Cha Cha. If you wanted the direct opposite of her optimum it would be Taunton, on quick ground, and over the minimum trip. The big plus would be she jumped much better, albeit still not quick enough for a two-mile race. Back up in trip she will be difficult to beat, and you can see her ending up in that Newbury race over the intermediate trip.

Disappointing that it appears Pauling is going to divert Handstands away from Cheltenham in favour of Aintree. Seems strange to me as he looks a more thorough stayer than The Jukebox Man. If The Jukebox Man has to go to Cheltenham why not run both?

Happy And Fine jumped well but annoyingly faded out of the places in the straight.
School For Scandal couldn't get to the front and never really looked like winning. This may have been a better quality race than the one he won here and also might need better ground.

Not a great day again tomorrow, but a few races of interest.

It looks a weak Punchestown bumper. Bambino Fever is probably bargain basement for Mullins. She was three lengths down when the leader departed in her point. I don't think she would have won. The horse that did come down won next time and was sold to Tony Mullins for 100,000. I thought it was worth taking an each-way chance on the well-bred Queen Of Zim.

At Warwick, I am glad I missed the 7/1 on Ballymackie. At 7/2 there is no decision to be made. I have flagged this one up, but it goes in off top weight having shown virtually nothing in races it had no chance of winning. It's jumping is a concern, as it has shown a tendency to drag it's rear end through the fences. Keops Des Bordes might be the star of the day, but who knows what Skelton will be up to tomorrow. We know the owner isn't always too bothered about winning if there is a long-term gain. For what it's worth the horse travelled well on the front end when winning his point. Skelton bought the second. No Drama This End won a weak English point. He looked professional, but the second gave away most of the winning margin by continually jumping right. I think he likely needs a lot better to be in contention.

I have backed Rock Sensation each-way in the closing Uttoxeter bumper. No surprise if it goes off favourite as her point form is probably the best on offer. She was eventually outspeeded by Future Prospect in her point. Supreme Malinas had come down before the race had taken shape. My worry would be is whether she has enough pace as she looks a scopey, staying type. Hopefully, she is ridden forward.

Added Mags Collins with extra places in the Punchestown bumper. She shaped well enough in a much better race on debut, and given that she was outpaced, the step up in trip should be a benefit.

best price am nearly 100 percent positive,
clondike royal was around 15@s, did ye make a typo
with ye 25 into 11/4 ...??
or wich bookie ye get 25@s AT ??

No, the first price quoted was Bet365's 25/1.

Even though it was my idea to keep the thread running, I will leave you guys to it now. It's a bit of a solo thread for dd really. I admire his knowledge, but not his pedantry, tbh. No interest whatsoever in anyone's views but his own...

Even though it was my idea to keep the thread running, I will leave you guys to it now. It's a bit of a solo thread for dd really. I admire his knowledge, but not his pedantry, tbh. No interest whatsoever in anyone's views but his own...

I don't have to do this and when I read posts like that I wonder why I do. Of course it's a solo for me if nobody else posts. To say I ignore people's views is just nonsense. You were pretty disparaging about a 25/1 winner today. Do you think they grow on trees? There are a lot of views on this thread, I suspect many from people who probably don't post at all because they don't want to get involved in this sort of forum nonsense. I am putting a load of good information on this thread for free, but if people don't appreciate it then it's pointless doing it.

lucky u w .36,
i cant get feck all on w them

ignore 101
keep this going
u move markets as y well no

quality fred
end of
best of the donlkeys as ye well no dd
fook the nay sayers
av made a good few dollars readin this for
last few weeks
and plenny more peepes will have

I have enjoyed being on here but find the attitude to post race analysis  disappointing on the whole. Dd clearly does a lot of research and benefits as does George on the flat but we are all different and entitled to our own way of following the sport. For me after 70 years of enjoying racing it is about people and breeding on the flat and owners and trainers over jumps. I was a keen follower of Hobbs for many years and knew many of the owners there.

I am really pleased to see his recent revival after some very thin years.

The Hobbs' runner (Uttox. 1.00) Kikijo presents a very tricky puzzle today. A single winning run in France as a 3yo rules it out of maiden races so it is straight into handicaps. The first UK run a month ago suggested that the mark of 121 is too high and todays race is not much easier so I suspect that a few runs are needed to get a better idea of ability. Having said that, the yard form is much improved recently. The other yard runner Jatiluwih is consistent for David maxwell but does not often win.

Christ guys , any info is good info particularly when is comes from left field .

dd, just on a point of fact, I wasn't disparaging about your 25-1 winner, I merely said another horse was traveling better when it fell. I am entitled to my opinion. I have congratulated you on almost all your good winners including that one.

Kikijo outpaced in the straight as I thought he would be. I put El Granjero in the last day of the tipping comp but of course it was second! Boultbee Brooks continues to get placed horses and the odd winner. Thanks for the heads up Reg.

The two runs this season for Golden Ace is suggesting a non stayer, in spite of the horse's wins last season. Very confusing. Jockey today looked like he didn't think the horse would get home and rode accordingly.

If differentdrum has thrown the towel in on this thread, then it’s a real shame.

As a headmaster, I would comment differentdrum is a diligent student who is totally committed to his work.
His knowledge of the chosen specialised subject is top class.
Nevertheless, he finds it difficult to accept criticism and his insensitivity to alternative views requires latitude.

DD was probably getting fed up with the aftertiming that was going on. Relentless!

So I have now started a new thread where proper debate including aftertiming is welcome. Those who object to anything apart from free tips please avoid it.

Is there a reason you need a new thread Sageform?

I started it because the original one seemed to have been taken down. If you read the posts on mine you will see that I offered to return to this one but others have asked that it stays. I really do not mind either way. I was quite happy with this one but when we get posts like the one from Whipping, I can see why many are not.

Have you guys looked at Sandown on Saturday yet ? Doddiethegreat should have perfect conditions (even more than at Kempton) and is 3lb lower than Betfair 4th. This is weaker field with veteran hurdlers and although he’s not the youngest he looks just about at bet at 100/30. Staying will be the game.

Jan 2, 2025 -- 1:35PM, sageform wrote:

I started it because the original one seemed to have been taken down. If you read the posts on mine you will see that I offered to return to this one but others have asked that it stays. I really do not mind either way. I was quite happy with this one but when we get posts like the one from Whipping, I can see why many are not.

Cheers

Hibore, I will wait to see which meetings survive the frost before spending much time studying. Nicky could run the stable cat and win on recent evidence.
One horse that puzzled me yesterday. Twig ran blinders in the Cheltenham and Aintree staying handicap chases. Now he has been returned to hurdles and run relatively poorly 3 times. I wonder what they are aiming it at?

Jan 1, 2025 -- 2:19PM, MJK wrote:

The two runs this season for Golden Ace is suggesting a non stayer, in spite of the horse's wins last season. Very confusing. Jockey today looked like he didn't think the horse would get home and rode accordingly.

Golden Ace reverting back to 2M. The horse doesn't stay any further anymore apparently.

sounds like the BETFAIR then speculative  go at champion if she runs well enough

Massive jump from mares only. I know that Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead have managed it but there are no more than 5 mares each year that can cut it against geldings over hurdles or fences. If it was mine, she would be in the mares hurdle but good luck with whatever they do.

I think they might run Betfair and swerve Cheltenham and go to Aintree. Better ground and sharper track with fresh horse. Can’t see her placing in any race at Cheltenham.

Cons Hill seems bit easy in the market today ?

even the moaning OAP,s wont get out of bed now for a 100 grand race,just 9 in the veterans final ,been 20 runners in the past

Seems like 1/5 to be cancelled.

They’ll race at Sandown, I’d have thought.

I’m about mile away and not over cold here. Last night was far worse with cars frozen by now.

Think it will be ok.

Spillane's Tower not entered for the Gold Cup. The assumption then is the Ryanair, or are they waiting for Aintree?

Just 5 GB Gold Cup entries and I doubt whether we will see more than 2 of them run. GDC looks a winner bar injury now.
Meanwhile Taunton might be in doubt from the local BBC weather just now. Could be minus 3 and even snow there tomorrow morning. After that we can only hope for Kelso on Sunday or Exeter on Monday. Cheltenham on New Years Day a fading memory for jump fans.

Lulamba only around 6s for the Triumph and hasn't had a run yet for Henderson. Down to go at Kempton on Saturday. So do they cut it again if it wins?

If it goes ahead of course...

Hacks up,they probably will.

Salvator Mundi back on the track Sunday

Lets hope Ballygunner Castle can avoid the other horses !

Looking like Ballyburn will run in the 2M5F Novice at the DRF. Not entered in the Arkle there. They should have listened to DD at the start!

The Towton was a bit of a non event in that only 2 finished but I suspect that I learned quite a bit. Firstly Handstands is an improving top class novice chaser and secondly that Lord of Thunder paid another compliment to Lowry's Bar.

I learned THE SKELTONS GOT THE LOT, around 5 to 2 /9 to 4 strong 2nd fav 24 hrs ago any price you like and sent to where you rarely see a Skelton WANTED  out in front and went out back of tv like a light in 6 strides

Repeat what I said earlier in the thread after it's last run, Tullyhill needs stepping up in trip.

Asian needs a jockey putting on top,that was embarrassing,made brod Munroe Wilson look like John francome

A Dream To Share given a poor ride last time and should have finished closer. Disappointing if that can't be put right today.

Non runner. Boooo.

Jan 8, 2025 -- 3:19AM, MJK wrote:

Salvator Mundi back on the track Sunday

Gotta be described as workmanlike

Sin on nother site that e as ad wind operation

Townend said he wanted to hold him up for education and that stopped him jumping fluently. He did well to win from where he was 2 out but he did not look like a speed horse to me going forward to the spring and likely quicker ground.

In general I've never seen so many Mullins' novices make so many mistakes in races as they have this season so far.

Yes and they also always used to send the good ones straight to front and front run them. They seem to now put them in behind as tactic alot more

maybe because they gallop and jump at home on heavy ground that hasn't been seen much this season

Hobbs again! 5 out of 10 in 2025. I didn't back that one against a potential Henderson hotpot but it stayed on well. Livin on Luco the only other one today.

Betting seems to suggest they've decided on the Champion Hurdle for Brighterdaysahead

Dylan Johnston can surely expect a ban for failing to ride out for 3rd at Hereford

Jurancon won another competitive novice. He doesn't do much in the early stages which is in his favour as he saves energy for later.

Couple today that I have backed and have shortened a bit. Double Digits 11.55 Newcastle from a good owners and had decent ptp form. Libre de Choueur now joint fav for Ludlow 1.15 for Boultbee Brooks.

One poor and one non runner yesterday so here goes again.
MR 2.35. I have backed both of the Tizzard runners in the Veterans chase as I did before it was abandoned last time. Just prefer Eldorado Allen to have more pace round a tight track.
Windsor 1.15. Myretown has bottom weight in a decent handicap but well backed and looks like an improver.

Lulamba, books cut him alright,6/4.