Thirsk. 3:50

AGNES GREY   Favourite at time of post

Blinkered for 1st time, won 16-runner handicap at Carlisle (5.8f, good to soft, 14/1) 5 days ago, driven out. Carries penalty. Heading back in the right direction recently.      Above race.   Horse

Risky if you believe Timeform

Unplaced

WD :)

16:50 Thirsk

If Lokana fails and we expect Style Of Life and Fibonacci Sequence to take the first two spots, the horse most likely to come in third is:

Hostelry
Recent Form: Hostelry has been running consistently in handicaps, with a few placed efforts in recent starts. Notably, she finished third at Nottingham over a similar distance last month and has shown she can compete at this level.
Course and Distance: Hostelry is a course and distance (C&D) winner, having previously won at Thirsk over a mile. This familiarity with the course and conditions gives her an advantage, as some of her competitors lack proven form on this track.
Suitability: She has been running respectably in her recent races, including a sixth-place finish at Hamilton over slightly longer on soft ground, indicating she can handle today's conditions.
Equipment: The use of cheekpieces suggests an attempt by her trainer, Ruth Carr, to get the best performance out of her.
Odds and Market Support: Hostelry is not among the market favourites, generally around 5.5 to 6.0, making her an attractive option for a place. Her steady performances and course familiarity justify her inclusion as a likely third-place finisher.
Summary of Likely Outcome
If Lokana underperforms, Style Of Life and Fibonacci Sequence are likely to take first and second, with Hostelry well-placed to come third, leveraging her course experience and consistent recent form.

Bet Placed

Forecast
16:50 Thirsk
Reverse Forecast

Lines
2
Stake
£2.00
Returns
TBD
Total Stake
£2.00
Total Returns
TBD

Fibonacci Sequence
7.6
£3.00
If Win
£23.76
If Placed
£0.96
If Unplaced
-£6.00
Ref: 361321595063 Matched: 16:34 16-Sep-24

No boom this time :(

Why did you do it,tip it.

Look, I did not tip anything as I believe everyone should Pick-There-Own.

The form analysis points to the Style of Life being the top pick if Lokane underperforms.

I Noggin the Nog it and lost, but placing the bet was my decision alone.

Even newbie punters know you cannot pick the winner every time.

Totally agree Jack,

Thanks for posting on the horse race threads.

Conclusion
Mahato could indeed be a false favourite due to the combination of its long absence and the disappointing run on its second start. The market may be placing too much emphasis on the debut win, overlooking the uncertainties introduced by the time off and previous underperformance. Additionally, this is a novice stakes race, which often presents unpredictable outcomes.

Recommendation
Given the potential vulnerabilities of Mahato, laying the horse or seeking value in alternatives like Zip It Up or Kalik might be a more prudent approach. However, always keep in mind the nature of novice stakes, which are inherently unpredictable.

Back (Bet For)
Odds
EW Stake
Zip It Up
7.8
£1.00
If Win
£8.16
If Placed
£0.36
If Unplaced
-£2.00
Ref: 361333632175 Matched: 18:24 16-Sep-24

BOOM!