Havlin's ride in the Derby

Yes he played it way to cool easy to say after the event though.

think he knew might struggle to get home travelling that well horse stuck on well thou

I thought it was a typical Havlin ride, in that he teased his backers into thinking he was actually going to win, before finding a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Moore had his eye on him the whole way round, they knew that was their only danger. Havlin didn’t have a clue where Moore was, and was sat up on the bridle behind that loose horse when he should have been gone. Moore got first run and it was decisive. The only saving grace for Havlin is that he probably wouldn’t have won anyway, but we will never know.

I never backed him.

You may well be correct Booster but i read it differently , firstly i can't believe they thought pre-race that the 2nd was their only danger and secondly if he'd have gone as early as hindsight demands then can't for the life of me see how he could have held off the winner who was increasing the margin the further they went , then of course there would have been a meltdown that Rab had gone too early and left a target for Ryan.

It's all about opinions though mate   

Yes, I’ve read about a million different opinions on the subject, everyone is going to see it differently.

I just can’t watch that back and not come to the conclusion that Moore outrode Havlin.

But as you say, he could have kicked on, got collared late on, and snides like myself would be out slagging him for going too soon!

Looking back at the Lingfield trial Ambiente looked a strong stayer. City Of Troy was going up four furlongs. Pre race it wasn't a stretch to assume City Of Troy would be the quicker horse. The second horse has ran all the way to the line, as you would have expected pre race. To wait until the winner had gone past before riding his horse out was clearly the wrong choice by Havlin. As well as his horse's guaranteed stamina, which he hasn't used, he has allowed the winner the momentum. As I said in a previous whether the winner would have still won is immaterial(I think he would),  a poor ride is a poor ride and this was one.

hornby got it in the neck for doing on westover exactly what havlin is now being castigated for

imo its not all about opinions. some are worthless

Of course some are worthless but in your opinion mitolo 

Havlin's getting criticised because he's Havlin.
Gave the horse every chance to win that race.City
Of Troy too good for him.3RD horse was over 3Ls back.
If what I've read about Ambiente Friendly's owners is
correct,they want to avoid the wnr in future.

The better horse won on the day regardless how Havlin might or might not have ridden. If one inputs the data for both horses into a computer for simulated race City Of Troy will still come out the winner unless Moore falls off him before the line or Moore gets caught up in traffic. But, as it was neither was the case. Thus Moore and City Of Troy would always have won on saturday; Havlin did not lose the race.

"a Dettori or a Buick would have kicked on."

Dettori made a very similar mistake 2 years ago in the Oaks on Emily Upjohn, when Moore went for home on Tuesday, and Dettori didn't notice until his rival had 2 lengths on him. On that occasion it did matter, and he lost a race he should have won.

Of course it's all much easier watching on the telly.

dun nowt rong..winner pi$$ed up.

im not a havlin fan tbh, but his position for 90% of the race was perfect and whether he misjudged the pace of the winner or whether he simply didn't have the gears you'll never know, i don't think the coolmore horse would have been beaten whatever he'd done, it was so much better than the rest

Still has to learn how to keep his heed still in a finish though.

I think Emily Upjohn stumbled and lost many lengths at the start.She ran out of puff at the business end despite going easily and 1f out; Tuesday was not to be denied.

People saying Moore took the 'brave man's route' but clearly being on that fresh strip around the inner was a good thing, watching how the races played out on the day.

Grade 3 in a grade 1 not a good recipe…..

Starkey came wide (no traffic issue) on Dancing Brave but too far back. Also, Shahrastani had 1st run and did not stop at the business end either; Auguste Rodin caught King Of Steel because he was the better horse on the day.

I think even if City Of Troy was upside Ambiente Friendly (going easily) on saturday the former would still have won because City Of Troy was stretching away at the business end - he was finishing the stronger of the two, I reckoned.

Didn't make a difference to the result imo but swap the jockeys, would Ryan have sat there motionless? I think not. The usual ride Nudging/cajoling pinching a foot a yard here and there getting every inch out of the situation. There are jocks that wait for something to happen and others that make things happen Rab bang average imo. Did alright in the Lockinge tho

El Gran Senor and Secreto. Was that Eddery's fault holding onto the former? El Gran Senor was walking all over Secreto bar the line despite edging infront for a few strides when given the rein. Here, El Gran Senor was outstayed or worried-off by Secreto, I believe.

There's a time for holding and a time for getting on with it. Moore was holding on to COT at times during the race.

Short snippet for tobymugs >>>>>>>>>>.........you lost in excess of 10k for every furlong covered by the winner. Can we have the screenshot please?

No thought not

It is good to read these different points of view with regard to Moore and Havlin. No-one knows what would have happened if the race had been run differently but my view is that Moore set his horse alight going downhill whereas Havlin asked his horse to quicken going uphill. Huge difference. Moore was in full flight going past Havlin and that was a huge advantage.

George.B has the the correct answer,a gold star to him.

Booster Rooster dead on...one of the classic worst rides in a classic ever...Rab take a bow lol...

MJK hits the nail on the head...exactly right ...AF had not got a jock with a brain on top ..if he had it woulda played to horses strengths and probably got done for speed by C.o.T but if he had gone on and got collared i for one woulda said fair play Rab you gave your horse every chance but got beat by a speedier horse over the distance.. to fall asleep was comedy gold but connections got karma imv ..

George B re strip of ground bang on too...Havlin kicks on ..goes to rail like any proper jock does in that scenerio imv of course means Moore has to ho round him in the chase ..thats a length ... if he d gone 2 up when he coul have hi ho ..who knows..i think C.o.T collars him a neck or so but AF given every chance so no complaints ..didnt back Rab as burnt yrs ago and tebd to learn the lesson but his backers id say annoying watch as per...

Havlin not as good a jockey as Moore.

How much difference does it make, a few pounds?

All the diff in the world ...dont think amyone could argue comparison..id have Rab below all jocks imo. ..think it can add 2/3 lengths a good jock makes but some argue none at all but i believe they make a diff

I backed the second, mostly in the place market, and have no complaints over the horse coming second. The winner was always the best horse.

BUT, BUT, BUT, Havlin did rather sit there for too long and did seem unaware for a couple of seconds or so that COT and Moore had quickened past him. He still would not have won but he could have been closer.

To back this view up, consider this: Had Moore been on the second he surely would have not let another horse take almost two lengths out of him before asking for maximum effort. And, he would have certainly been aware that a horse was coming past him with a devastating run and taken action. Of course, he still would not have won on it but he would have finished closer.

All in all, was it worthwhile the owners of the second deposing the regular jockey for Havlin. I think not...

C'mon lads,Havlin was/is never going to win a Derby, that's just the way it is.

Ambiente ran a grand race and was given a good ride. He was beat by a right good one
but bested the rest of the field easily. No disgrace for the horse or jockey.

Ambiente ran a grand race and was given a good ride.

No, Ambiente Friendly ran a grand race and was given a bad ride. It is however possible that he would have been beaten anyway by City of Troy; we cannot know.

Quite why Callum Shepherd was jocked off is one of the enduring mysteries of our time. You could understand it if Frankie had phoned up from America to offer his services, but Havlin is a journeyman at best, and at worst a journeyman who cannot ride Epsom.

In the past five years before last week, Havlin had only one ride at Epsom. I looked back as far as 2013 but could not find any wins for Havlin at the track.

To be fair to Havlin and the Gosdens, they have previously teamed up in pattern races. Perhaps I am being harsh in suggesting the decision was unfathomable, and it was just clearly wrong. Maybe they missed the Epsom factor because who'd expect competence in racing?

The owners threw their toys out of the pram after Callum got beat on the heavily backed Too Friendly at Newmarket is my guess. A very poor decision and therefore karma for them to see Havlin mess things up. Ambiente Friendly had proved that he stayed well in the Lingfield Derby Trial, where he took it up the running a fair way out and went well clear in a very strong running style. For Havlin, to be sitting pretty doing nothing for a few seconds when he could have grabbed the race by the scruff of the neck was simply poor jockeyship. Obviously as things turned out City of Troy was very strong to the line and would probably have won anyway by a reduced margin. That doesn't take away from the incompetency of the ride. He didn't optimise the ability and chance of his horse. If Ambiente had been a doubtful stayer it would have been understandable but pre race he was one of the few proven over the trip.

asparagus you're echoing what I said previously on this thread. I never understand the 'he wouldn't have won anyway' argument used by people defending what was clearly a poor ride. Some winning rides can also be poor rides. I can only think Havlin s**t himself and didn't know what to do.

Plainly didn’t see COT come thru on the inside,and thought he had the other horses covered so sat thinking he was going to win the race easy and be the hero without moving a muscle.

I agree with you Cowboy - on all counts.
Poor Rab.  Him and Hornby should form a club.

Hornby does take the cake

I'd think City Of Troy will finish stronger than any Flat horse in training here and in Ireland at the moment over 8f, 10f and 12f given the same starting point. I believe once City of Troy gets in gear, his turbo kicks in, and he's away and gone - nothing will get near him - including Ambiente Friendly, Economics or Arabian Crown.

I think he'll finish stronger than even Notable Approach over 8f, if he does not repeat his 2000G running eg making the running like he did in The Dewhurst or coming from n=behind pacesetters; betting 1/3 City Of Troy, 3/1 Ambiente Friendly from 1m to 1m 4f, probably any ground too.

There are some good points being made in this thread, especially about the positions on the track when the two horses quickened up.

I backed Ambiente Friendly at 17/2 ew and during the race was panicking when Havlin took a pull, as could see the path opening up for Moore on the inside. Having watched the race a few times, Havlin gave the horse a good ride, well positioned, but caught out by the winner suddenly bursting through to his inside. Moore got lucky with his path opening up, whilst Havlin had to deal with the loose horse in front of him and slightly fight the camber to get past.

Watch Ezeliya win the Oaks, got a similar ride and Dance Sequence got the run on her on the inside. The difference was Dance Sequence didn't finish anywhere near a strong as City of Troy. I think if Havlin had gone earlier he would have got run down, it just would have been closer. The take out for me is Ambiente Friendly looks like a horse worth following and will likely be backable prices...

Indeed 'Storm Alert'. My money will always be with City Of Troy with 1f or 2f to run if level over 8f, 10f or 12f unless City Of Troy has an off-day eg 2000G or AOB has treated him like God!

Could be the horses just ran to form...OR 124-111-111...so Ambiente Friendly maybe improved a bit by beating Los Angeles by 3 lengths?

Still not a bad payday for the Gredleys :

Prize Money Breakdown
1st – £882,407.60
2nd – £334,540
3rd – £167,425.60
4th – £83,401.60
5th – £41,856.40
6th – £21,006

So at the end of the season will Ambiente Friendly be rated higher than City of Troy?

Didn't realise City of Troy ran in the Royal Lodge when trained by Sir Michael Stoute....

Moore got lucky with his path opening up - hmmm between his 2 stablemates - that's what AOB is talking to his jocks about in front of the world before the race in the centre of the course.  You Declan try to make the running at a fast clip - You Wayne try to ride wingman and take it up around 3 out - both of you - leave a gap on the rails and between yer - Ryan will be taking the fresh strip along the rails and expect him between 2 and 1 out as all the non stayers will now be out with the washing. The lads have done it before - very occasionally the front runner does not come back. If you are RH and JF you surely must be expecting this scenario - so RH expect Ryan to be shooting through on the rails - in other words if you have a double handfall 2 out go for broke because that's the way Coolmore play it.  In fact RH could see 2 parts of the jigsaw in front of him all down the straight - he clearly had a dilemma - go for the line because your lad stays and we all know if CoT is somewhere around at this stage he has speed. So RH should not have waited - it's plainly the wrong decision.

Overall, if RH had gone - I suspect he would have been mown down about 100yds out.

Obviously the poster has never picked up on the phrase "Went to soon"

When he did go the tank emptied pretty quickly and was no danger to the winner.

Gone earlier all that would have happened is the tank would have emptied sooner

No - the tank did not empty at all - run on well against a horse that run on even better having got the jump on him.

It was outspeeded, not outstayed, hence why kicking on when he had the chance was the obvious ride he should have done, correct cowboy.

Thread is proof of a Mass Psychosis Event.

'breadnbutter', what does that mean bearing in mind almost everyone here is not psychiatry inclined?

Ryan made his move going downhill and had all the momentum
Rab sat too long and asked his horse to quicken where the course flattens out/rises
I agree with Brigust

he kicks on when op indicates and still looses by same amount or even more. Run that race 1000 times and it's the same winner 995 times.

He doesn't kick on and loses the race a 1000 times out of 1000 - that's what differentiates RM from RH.

What really amazes me is how many are trying to defend a rank awful ride by Havlin, he's done it 100s of times before, so it's fecking obvious too!

Whether he would have won will always be debateable, but whether it was his (usual) shoight riding is far less debateable

If it was that bad a ride surely his connections would want
to take the wnr on again?Read that they want to avoid him
in future races.

Agree with the 100% Havlin loses the race by letting Moore get the jump on him by 2L he loses every time.

Bigust and few others have it correct

Do try and keep up penzance - he made a very bad decision around 2 out. No-one is saying that if he kicked on 2 out he would have won - but what he did ensured that he would lose. Let's see if the Gredleys put him up next time.

Would have loved Ambiente Friendly to run on strongly to be beaten around 1/2-3/4 length....then we could have really enjoyed the post mortem.

This is ridiculous. The race is long gone...it's history. Can we move on, plz? Otherwise, Havlin might have a fan club out of sympathy.

Add Skidmark to the club..lets see him get so logical beat here... Notable Speech would eat up C.o.T over the gns distance imp..

Nice..let it drift back from a nice position and still got to lay it at 2/1 :( back Faheys
...lay Skidmarks order of the next few days imv..

Could he get Ms Kubelik beat with her form runner up to Notable Speech fto beat..be tough i think but if any man can..

Elmaka that should say...

Nice one Tom...Hollie chart better course be much better though ffs .Skidmark ya beaut..JG nags bang oooootttt oe form