Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread

Well done Lucky , Andrew and all involved, as a punter of moderate knowledge I really miss Andrews contributions to the forum , is there anywhere else to hear the great man , please keep this thread alive and indeed Trusty is a man with good contributions please continue to share thoughts here ,

Nice one lads, never noticed was running to be honest, but well pleased for all in syndicate.

I did not realise AIS could not post. Grateful to timberman to be considered within AIS's shadow.

Today's offering is Master Milliner in the 1.50 Goodwood. Ran reasonably well at Ascot FTO after 2 years off, next time out at Newbury drifted like a barge out to 50/1 ISP and 150/1 on here. Never ever remotely put in the race by today's rider and when mounting some sort of run immediately shoved in behind some other runners. I thought immediately that they would be targeting this race and managed another 3lb off from the h'capper. Frankly 14/1 is a miserable price for what we have seen so far but that in itself tells a story imo. E/W 1st 6 with a few books.

Meant to say trainer form 0/11 last 14 days but they have been there abouts just not winning.

Cheers and GL Trusty, Madness were good as expected, although I missed a good bit having a drink inside.
Andrew travelled back to Sweden earlier this morning so I'm guessing a bit busy but is trying to get his access back.

Well done Trusty - great shout!

Very well done Trusty, a nice drift in the betting as well.

Great spot, Trusty, VWD

Well done with Salamanca Lad, guys

Top tipping Trusty 25/1 
Trained for the race

Top bombing.

Crikey Trusty great shout   

Thanks gents, just watched the reply and you could see right from the start that he was up for the race today, so different to LTO, can't believe the ISP and BFSP would have been worried about that drift but was busy today so just saw result on sporting life.

WD Trusty

Of course I missed it …but my faith in you was proven to be spot on Trusty - well done . I normally drop in here on Saturdays before I go to local bookies and post my erratic naps in competition forum lol

Good early pick Trusty, vwd.

Received earlier this morning from Andrew


Good morning Guys,

I've asked Lucky Luciano to post on my behalf due to my forum rights being revoked; i have contacted them, but it appears there will be no let-up, obviously due to posting from Germany/Sweden (i'm actually in Linköping now, returning to München this evening).

Many thanks for the Salamanca Lad Posts, pre and post-race, very much appreciated.

Bringing up the hat-trick on Wednesday was incredible, an excellent ride from a very likeable jockey based on his post race interview video. Front running, the blinkers and tongue-tie have certainly made a difference in his recent runs.

I think he will go up 3lb to 75 on Tuesday.

After his first couple of runs, we could never have imagined he would win 3 on the spin later, we really got lucky with the buy, many syndicates don't win a race. Icing on the cake, was i won the trophy in the stable prize draw, so i get to keep it. I haven't seen it yet, i guess it's a glass bowl or similar, one of the team will pass it on to me next time i'm over that is almost certainly 2 weeks time.

Salamanca Lad is entered at Ffos Las (4.50) in a class 5 0-72 on Tuesday with Jim Crowley up and a 6lb penalty. Fingers crossed for a 4-timer.

Trusty, VWD on the selection, superb, hope you made a few bob.

Timberman, many thanks for the kind comments, it's flattering to know the thread is popular and still gets a lot of views.

I'm not going to ask Lucky Luciano to post for me on a regular basis, even though i know he doesn't mind, but as he is today, one horse i think could go well later is Puchkine in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville (3.07). Winner of 4 from 7, his only down the field run was in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 guineas) but even then he was only beaten 4.5L after fading in the final furlong. Rated 114 (converted) behind Mill Stream (117) but receives 4lb age allowance and won well on course LTO, albeit over slightly shorter. Well drawn in 2. Currently 8.4 on here, i will have a small win and hope that Beauvatier, a horse i've backed a few time doesn't win.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Mill Stream 4 me

Good to hear from you again and well done with Salamanca Lad.Hope you get your posting rights sorted soon.

Good luck with Salamanca tomorrow at Haydock.

Will try and post a decent outsider tomorrow.

No selection at a big enough price worth posting, contenders were:- 3.05 New Jumby and 4.30 Asc Talis Evolvere but both are only 12/1 and I was hoping for at least 20's considering the risks.

Frankly probably the worst Saturday cards in a while.

Thanks for the thoughts anyways Trusty , might stick them in my Ascot ew lucky 15

Well this owning business was looking too easy but a fourth successive handicap was always going to be difficult. Still very much a success story.

Thanks All. I received the following email from Andrew today so am posting this on his behalf

Most readers will know i recently lost my forum posting rights due to closure of a BF account (i have access to another for betting purposes) so i asked Mr Spreadsheet to post the below on my behalf.

Good morning All from the Premier Inn T4 Heathrow, arrived Thursday late evening, returning to München tonight.

Many thanks for posts since my last one on August 4th, prior to Salamanca Lad at Haydock. After running up a hat-trick, the 4 timer was always going to be difficult, we knew this and were not so disappointed, even though we were obviously hopeful. Since Ripon he's gone from a mark of 65 to 76 and the Haydock field was decent for the class, 6 rivals rated between 73 and 77, and up against the likes of Varian, Beckett and Crisford. Claire (Kübler) mentioned that 4 races in 6 weeks had probably taken the edge off him so a rest was required. He could be running next on bank holiday Monday, but if not, Sandown thereafter. His mark was left unchanged at 76.

Good news on my other syndicate share, a 2 year old Kodi Bear filly, Agouti Bear (bought as a Christmas present for my daughter) she ran at the Curragh (2.50) yesterday, her first run and what a run it was finishing runner-up, at one stage i thought she may win. She knew her job, up with the pace from the off and stayed on really well to earn connections 4750 euros. Curragh maidens are difficult to win (almost 15K to the winner) so a lovely run from the filly that shows promise for the future. Her next race has already been lined up, but out of respect to other shareholders (including the poster Workrider) i will not post the plans here.

A superb day on Friday, one of the SL syndicate members and i went to Sarsen Farm, Dan and Claire Küblers training facility, i was very impressed with their set-up and the scenery there is just wonderful to see. Everyone in the yard was very friendly and happy to talk to, including Dan who also drove us up to the gallops and around the Lambourn area and several stables including Nicky Hendersons. Only my 2nd ever visit to a racing stable (the other was George Bakers) i loved it.

In the afternoon, we went to the Didcot railway museum as my syndicate mate is one of the part time volunteers that keep it running. I'm a military aerospace nerd, but seeing old steam locomotives and their workings as an engineer was incredible, i can recommend it to anyone.

Whilst i'm here i will mention a decent card at Deauville where i will be backing the AOB trained Whistlejacket (small) in the G1 Prix Morny (2.50). This race is well known to English racing fans and often throws up a class sprinter, including the likes of My Swallow, Arazi and Zafonic in bygone years and more recently Dream Ahead (same rating as Frankel as a 2 year old) No Nay Never and Lady Aurelia. Drawn next to the likely favourite (2 and 1 respectively) Shareholder who beat him last time they met, but has improved since then to win the G2 July stakes at Newmarket and was beaten by the 2 year old filly seen out so far, Barbouche giving her 3 lb LTO.

A good field as you would expect, but i think Whistlejacket is decent and will win this afternoon.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

WD with Whistlejacket Andrew

Morning all

Got to have a stab at the Nunthorpe today, I know it is not a h'cap but a very short price favourite in Asfoora at 2.5 (I am laying that) helps make the market. I would have backed Starlust at 16/1+ e/w as his form at York is 211, but I have missed it and at 10/1 it is not so appealing. Looking further down I like the look of Ponntos 30/1 e/w first 4 or 28/1 e/w first five with Slybet if you can get more than 50p. Barzalona comes over for the one ride having won on him twice before, drawn one on the favoured strip of ground and with some rain overnight just easing the going slightly, he has every chance of trying to make all.

GL.

Thanks for your thoughts Trusty , best of Luck as always

Well you got a trade if nothing else was 40.0 on here when I posted, now 21.0. Has an even better chance now LITD a n/r as won't be contested for the lead. Bizarrely Starlust now 20/1 in places, so going to have to back that e/w as well!

Wonder if Andrew is having a little bet on Vauban today? Not the best G2.

3rd and 5th with the fav only 4th. 5th place only paid at Slybet if you could get on. No winner though.

Good write up Trusty   

Andrew, good luck with Salamanca Lad today in the 5.35 Southwell.

Another great run , must be a joy to own such a consistent horse   

ran well.

Yes, very unlucky not to hold on, consistent horse.

Great run again,

Another good run for the syndicate.

Good morning Guys,

I requested Mr Spreadsheet to post this on my behalf; regular readers are fully aware of my current forum closure issues, although a return is work in progress, albeit not easy considering where i am.

Many thanks for the Salamanca Lad posts and to Trusty for his Nunthorpe thoughts.

The syndicate has been extremely lucky with SL, when we bought him at the HIT sales almost a year ago, a few of us thought if he could win a race it would be a bonus, but after Goodwood we began to have doubts, although that was a strong field on very sticky ground. A fantastic afternoon in the owners enclosure nevertheless.

Next time out at Ripon we were encouraged with a close 3rd place, and a few of us thought he would win at Leicester as it was a poor field. Another 2 wins and a close 2nd since is mind blowing to be honest. A line can be put through Haydock where he was going for a 4-timer; Claire (Kübler) mentioned 4 races in 6 weeks took the edge off him.

Currently rated 88 by Timeform, a RPR of 85 from the Southwell run and 78 OR, an improvement of a stone since Ripon. Dan and Claire have done a really good job with him from their impressive set-up at Lambourn, adding the tongue tie and blinkers have worked wonders.

The original plan was to keep him a year and sell at the same HIT sale next month, but a few of the team are thinking maybe we should keep him to run as a 4 year old, although there's a risk attached there of course, albeit a nice problem to have. With the sale additions he cost us 14100 + VAT and in my opinion it wouldn't surprise me if he went for double that, so my 10% share could cover a lot of the years expenses. If sold, we plan to buy another.

He could run at Newbury next Thursday, class 4, up in trip to 10f, although if soft is in the going description he won't run.

My other horse, a 2 year old filly, Agouti Bear (5% i bought for my daughter) runs in the opener at Navan (2.15) this afternoon. She ran really well on debut at the Curragh LTO and may be the favourite, but maidens are always an unknown, Ger Lyons has a newcomer with an inside draw, and Willie McCreery's runner drawn next to us was also runner-up on debut. Fingers crossed, although i suspect my daughter will be more interested in spending any potential prize money in Zara or Bershka female fashion outlets.

Haydock this afternoon is not a bad card, but i wasn't overly enamoured with the other meetings, although the group race meeting Longchamp tomorrow is interesting, featuring the Prix Du Moulin where i favour Charyn over Notable Speech slightly. As always, be aware of French going descriptions there.

Looking further ahead, i'm off to Paris next Saturday for the Arc trial meeting the following day and looking forward to watching the 3 year old filly Aventure in the Prix Vermeille, my AP bet at decent odds (average 27) for the big one in October as previously mentioned in posts on 3rd/16th June. Lightly raced, rated 112 (converted from French ratings) so has to improve, but this is a given. Never raced against colts before, but she's progressive, and the type have a good record in the Arc. Trials day is often a good meeting, 20 euros entry, reserved seat, but you basically sit where you want, the crowds are never large, surprisingly enough. Recommended for anyone that has never been.

On to this afternoon, if i do bet at Haydock, stakes will be small W/P. In the Betfair Sprint (3.35) Shouldvebeenaring back at 6f is my selection; 5 of his 6 wins were over the trip and he was runner-up in this race last year. Only 2 runs over CD, figures of 2-2 and will certainly get the strong pace he needs here. On his day he's decent and will need to be on top of his game in this field, but i think he can win. Odds of 15.0 and 3.0 for 4/TBP for a small profit if he's placed.

The Old Borough (2.25) is as tricky as it always is, and not really my choice of betting race, but i often put up a selection on a Saturday decent handicap. My rusty pin has fallen on Dancing In Paris off a lowly mark of 87, a low draw in 4, has won on the course and over the trip, but will need a personal best to win and bookmakers love these races, so really only a fun bet if i play. I will certainly be dancing in Paris next month if Aventure obliges in the Arc. Currently odds around 9.60.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Good to hear from you AIS, via MR S.

I do have a selection for the OBC, as usual a big price one from me but I can't get my eyes of Law Of The Sea. 66/1 e/w first 5 places with Sportsbook if you can get on; same price with all the other but only 4 places.

Ian Williams has a good record in the race 2-3-11 in the last 10 years but does unfortunately run three this afternoon, with the likely stable selection, Oneforthegutter, being ridden by Ryan Moore and AIS has picked the other stable runner Dancing In Paris!

My selection was 20L behind Divine Comedy giving that horse 2lb over 2 miles earlier in the year, today he receives 20lb and is over 2F shorter and on drying ground. Who knows if he is fit etc etc but any sort of return to form could see him at least run into a place.

GL.

Just gone 100/1 with Paddy & Sportsbook. 62p allowed for me FFS.

Good luck Trusty - its so annoying with the bookies - can't place a bet with most and those I can I'm limited too

It is a shame, really spoils it for me. I would have liked 25 e/w @ 100/1. I really don't think that is a big bet on a horses that has less than 1% chance of winning.

I have laid Kilt in 3.15 Kemp. No three year old winner in this race last 10 years 3yo 0-8-29, although Haggis has a good record in the race ,William Haggas 2-3-5, so only laid for £50. Hopefully 2-4-6 for him by 3.20.

I like to do a lay most days Trusty and he was on a short list for me today. I laid Kilt at Haydock when SL ran but I have laid Liosa tonight at Wolverhampton instead. A gelding who is genuine enough but needs to learn to settle and at 3.00 Im happy to take on. Good luck.

Issues with where Ikeaman is? Why would Slough be an issue, the old crooner still trying the con, might soon be time to tell you who and what he actually is!!

Trusty 62p   

You need to start backing a few losers Trusty or you'll never get on   

Laybet - Arkhalia Flynn 4.40 Haydock,on the drift but not under 5/2,but may be backed before off.

Good luck with the Bear Andrew.

Just touched off late on by a rag, very bad luck but ran a cracking race again, touched 1.03 IR

cracking run from his filly. Surely more to come. VWD AIS

After losing that 62p surely back to full stakes allowed Trusty

Just a note for " Mr spreadsheet", writing in the first person on behalf of a 3rd party requires a bit of work!! hth

.... jealousy has always been an Ugly trait imo.

Envy of a serial loser conman would be a new concept GC and you obviously have not yet cottoned on despite all the evidence so just for you to let you know a bit..........Where Do I Begin........Almost There!!!

Ikeaman know the significance!! hth

Fortunately I cannot read CagliariG's posts as I blocked him years ago. But I know it will be b0ll0cks.

Reasonable day for me, back came nowhere but led for 12 furlongs so feel I got a run for my money. Lay beaten out of sight, slow away and pulled like a nutter.

Well done Trusty for ignoring the obvious porkies but using a dead thread to your own ends instead of having the guts to start one!!!

No damage as he can't read the above!!

Well done Trusty - 100% correct re CagLIARiG - full of b0ll0cks as you say

He probably refreshes his forum thread every 5 seconds waiting in anticipation for a reply, It's all very sad.

Extremely sad that "Mr Spreadsheet " looks in a dead thread and carries on the con!! IMVHO

I asked Mr Spreadsheet to post the below on my behalf, although this will not be a regular occurrence by any means.

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the Agouti Bear run comments, well backed (5/2f) she was always prominent, took it up inside the final furlong and quickened to go a length up, but was run out of it close home by a strong finishing rag. I thought we had it in the last half furlong and many must have agreed, she went 1.03 IR as Stewart mentioned (sadly not laid by me). A good run nevertheless, although i think she's still a bit green, so fingers crossed for her next outing.

Over 8.2K for 2 runner-up finishes in 2 runs, not to be sniffed at and it keeps my expenses down. Mind you, when she was leading, i suspect my daughter was already logging on to the Zara website after calculating 5% of 14K for the winner. ;-)

In my post yesterday, i inadvertently mentioned Salamanca Lad will be running at Newbury next Thursday, but this was an entry from last week that didn't get taken up due to the ground. He's in the early entries for Chester next Friday (17.40) class 4 (0-80) over an extended 10f. This will be his stiffest task to date up in trip, but with an RPR of 85 could be competitive, so hopefully the draw is kind to us.

I've mentioned before that posters Mr Spreadsheet and Lucky Luciano are also involved with the horse (we often meet up for racing with a few others) and they will be going up to Chester, but i will not be attending on this occasion as i'm travelling the following morning.

A decent card at York for a Sunday this afternoon, but nothing really jumps off the page as a bet, although i did think Marine Wave in the listed race (4.00) was a potential EW bet at double figure odds. She won in the class LTO, although it's a better field this afternoon and has a 3lb penalty that makes life more difficult, but she could be improving and was impressive at Pontefract in a decent time by standard on the day. A 4/TBP could pay even money.

Across the channel at Longchamp, as much as i feel Notable Speech is pretty decent, i will be backing Charyn to win the Prix Du Moulin, albeit with a sensible stake. There's plenty of pace in the field, including Tribalist who will probably make the early running with Henry Longfellow not far away, setting it up for a sprint finish between the 2 protagonists.

Although they are racing on fresh ground, the going will certainly be on the soft side of good after 25mm rain on Thursday. Chantilly, north of the capital looked soft yesterday and we know he will handle the conditions. Of course this does not mean that Notable Speech will not.

It could be a good race, the front two in the betting are both rated 122 and HL on 121. I doubt the French horses will be involved in the finish, although i feel Ramadan is overpriced @ 40/1 (B365) albeit only for 2 places.

Finally, i noticed the forums' very own 'Baldrick' having a pop, just as he has done regularly since October 2019. Posting references to the singer Andy Williams to make out he knows who i am is hardly Sherlock Holmes. I've mentioned my name (Andrew Williams) on here before and there are photos on my profile page where my name is mentioned (KLM/AF tickets when he asked me to post proof i was travelling to Paris or Linköping for example).

He doesn't seem to have the mental capability to take in there are quite a few posters on here that know me, some very well, i go racing with them, in fact 6 of them are on my WhatsApp group and they know exactly where i live/work etc. A very sad, lonely, OCD individual in my opinion; i was going to say completely whacko, but i have my forgiving head on this morning.

Trusty

WD with the lay selection.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Andrew, just to let you know if you didn't already, that as an owner you are not allowed to Lay your horse IR (went 1.03 as stated) even as a stake saver or even to put in as a keep bet, so just as well that you couldn't. Good luck today.

Finally, i noticed the forums' very own 'Baldrick' having a pop, just as he has done regularly since October 2019. Posting references to the singer Andy Williams to make out he knows who i am is hardly Sherlock Holmes. I've mentioned my name (Andrew Williams) on here before and there are photos on my profile page where my name is mentioned (KLM/AF tickets when he asked me to post proof i was travelling to Paris or Linköping for example).

He doesn't seem to have the mental capability to take in there are quite a few posters on here that know me, some very well, i go racing with them, in fact 6 of them are on my WhatsApp group and they know exactly where i live/work etc. A very sad, lonely, OCD individual in my opinion; i was going to say completely whacko, but i have my forgiving head on this morning.

Just realised as the Bear is in your daughters name, then you may be able to lay it, before race or IR, you'll need to check up on that.

Well done on your lay last night Mr_S. I seemed to have missed AIS's winner - too much to read LOL. WD AIS as well.

Thanks Trusty - I don't have a lay today but am going to watch the 2:50 @ Longchamp - I took the 8/13 on HL for 3 places - thought that was too big - we shall see

I am laying Desert Flower in May Hill, 3PM at Donny tomorrow. I have already laid a ton at 2.26 and have another order in at 2.12. Yes it may win but I believe there are plenty of things in my favour. Trainer is not really firing like normal this year 1/5 last 14 days doesn't tell us enough but I feel the yard have underperformed this year. He has had two runners in the race in the last 10 years and both have placed, his last runner was Alpen Breeze that finished third to Powerful Breeze in 2019.

I am laying it tonight as you get the advantage of the ridiculous BF reductions if there are any non-runners tomorrow and also because I think 11/10 is already very short.

Turns out there was no rush to lay Desert Flower as it has been backed further overnight into 4/5.

These are the fancies today mainly expecting places, win will be bonus.

2.25 Cairdeas 22/1 generally 4 places. William Haggas 1-3-4. 100% place record.

3.00 Serving With Style 50/1 3 places.  K R Burke 2-1-4. Can improve on better ground imo.

3.35 Sweet Memories 16/1 3 places. John & Thady Gosden 2-2-4. Gosden farms this race.

Fingers crossed for a nice payday.

Thanks for your thoughts Trusty - Best of Luck

Lay wins easily and all the backs are unsighted. Poor selections, apologies.

No worries Trusty , keep posting them   

Unlucky Trusty. I've laid Faro Di Notte today in the 16:50 @ Sandown. 4 runs to date but she's a keen filly and needs to learn how to settle. I've liad @ 3.40 but she's drifted since then. Good luck all

Thought I had found 3 good prices yesterday, everything I back is mainly based on trainer record in races, and today I just cannot find anything. If forced to bet it would be Another Abbot in the opener at Sandown but will wait for tomorrow.

GL with yours.

Well done with your Lay Mr Spreadsheet and well done Trusty with your selection Meribella in the forum competition!

Well done with your Lay Mr Spreadsheet and well done Trusty with your selection Meribella in the forum competition!

formoftheace 08 Sep 24 10:19 
Finally, i noticed the forums' very own 'Baldrick' having a pop, just as he has done regularly since October 2019. Posting references to the singer Andy Williams to make out he knows who i am is hardly Sherlock Holmes. I've mentioned my name (Andrew Williams) on here before

who's david loch?

Rico-Dangleflaps 14 Sep 24 22:42 
formoftheace 08 Sep 24 10:19 
Finally, i noticed the forums' very own 'Baldrick' having a pop, just as he has done regularly since October 2019. Posting references to the singer Andy Williams to make out he knows who i am is hardly Sherlock Holmes. I've mentioned my name (Andrew Williams) on here before

who's david loch?

Ignore this p!ss….Rico being Rico…

I asked Lucky Luciano to post the below on my behalf; most readers know my forum account issues.

Good morning Guys,

Thanks to all for the posts and selections.

A weekend in Paris, and Longchamp later, returning to München tomorrow evening.

A decent afternoon of group racing in several countries including the Arc trials in France, Irish and German St Legers and the Stockholm Cup in Sweden where Archie Watson sends Outbox who has finished runner-up in the race for the past 3 years.

5 group races at Longchamp, although i'm not interested in the G3 (12.33) and will probably not arrive until later for first of the Arc trials, the Prix Foy (1.33). Continuous is the rightful favourite, although 4/6 is short enough and Iresine who has a record if 3-1-2 in this race could make a race of it. Not sure if i will have a bet in the race, but if i do, it will be 2TBP on the latter.

The Prix Vermeille (2.57) is the race i'm most interested in, albeit more for my AP bet in the Arc, regular readers know i'm on Aventure (odds of 27) so she has to run well at least.

Lightly raced, only once out of the first 3 when a close 4th in the Prix De Diane (French Oaks) over an insufficient trip. Won at Deauville LTO after a 2 month break and has a good turn of foot. A low draw is a positive as long as Maxime isn't too far back in the early stages. I still have the vision of him showboating to the crowd in the final furlong when she won at Chantilly in June.

If there is a lay of a favourite on the card, i think Bluestocking could be one in this race, i'm not sure 12f is her trip (all wins between 8f and 10.5f).

The Prix Neil (3.40) is the best race on the card, featuring the front two in the betting for the Arc, Look De Vega and Sosie, and Delius, a promising 3 year old who is 3 from 4.

Look De Vega is unbeaten in 3 runs and beat Sosie by a comfortable 2.5L in the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) but that was over 10.5f. Sosie has won well since and is proven over the trip, winning the Grand Prix de Paris beating Illinois who finished runner-up in the the St Leger at Doncaster yesterday. I will be backing Sosie.

A low draw is a big advantage in Longchamp sprints, but much of the pace in the G3 (4.15) appears to be amongst the higher numbers, in particular the Czech runner and well travelled and CD winner Ponntos. If i stay for this race, i may play the Richard Hughes trained No Half Measures, but only as a fun EW bet.

Not many bets today, my afternoon is all about a meeting i often go to, in a city i love; in fact i'm returning with a couple of posters (and a few others) in October. I think we may have seen the Prix L'Abbaye winner last Friday, additionally, i may have the winner of the Prix Marcel Boussac, both on Arc day.

The weather is good here, it will be a relaxing afternoon without the stress of a lumpy bet later. Looking forward to it.

Changing topic, our Syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad didn't run at Chester on Friday due to the going, but is entered at Yarmouth and Sandown on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. My other one, Agouti Bear could be running next weekend, but is not a definite. Fingers crossed for both.

Stewarts Rise

Correct, Agouti Bear is registered in my daughters name (via Kildare Racing). I bought the 5% share as a Christmas present, the deal is i pay the monthly training and vets bills, she receives her share of the prize money (over 8K at present) and any sale proceeds we will split.

She couldn't lay the horse of course (she's not a punter anyway) but i can, although i didn't at Navan.

Trusty

Apology not necessary, i'm happy you and others put up selections on this thread.

Rico/FOTA,

I'm sure you both know i was referring to CagliariG

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

sew f@rty is the famous singer?

Thank you   ANDREW   4.2  Iresine 

Well done with Sosie and Iresine Andrew, pity about Blue Stocking though, hope you didn't lay it.

Yeah, pretty good going beside the possible lay suggestion Andrew

Good luck today Andrew with Agouti Bear

Yes Good luck Andrew, tough draw to overcome though, shamie will need to bounce her out and get to the nearside rail in straight.

Ran well again just outstayed i'd say.

I asked Lucky Luciano to post the below on my behalf; regular readers are aware of my forum rights being revoked due to where i'm located.

Good morning Guys,

A relaxing 2.5 days in Paris last weekend, the highlight being the Arc trials at Longchamp on Sunday where i had a good day considering i only really had one strong fancy (Sosie) and an AP Arc bet to watch without a bet. I was always against the 2 odds-on jollies on the card (Continuous and Look De Vega) although i didn't lay either.

I didn't arrive until just after 13.00, i wasn't interested in the earlier G3 and Arab group race. A warm, sunny afternoon and the crowd appeared to be larger than it has been in recent years, although i could still basically sit anywhere, even on the upper levels (i was on stage 3 most of the time). 20 euros for the quality of racing and no queues for anything is a bargain.

Only 3 bets on course, 2 winners and the loser was only a fun win bet on the Richards Hughes trained No Half Measures in the G3 sprint who finished 6th, albeit only beaten 0.75L in a bunch finish after finishing well. Sods law the winner was ridden by my favourite French jockey at 54/1.

As for No Half Measures, i didn't know RH had entered it again at Newbury yesterday, it won at 6/1. She's an improving filly, soft/heavy is not an issue and if she returns to Longchamp for the Prix L'Abbaye on Arc day may be worth an EW bet assuming a low draw, that is so important in the race.

My first bet, Iresine was only in the 2TBP market, but it paid 1.7 (PMU) that was more than i expected. After reviewing the field in depth, i thought there were question marks for all the field with exception of Iresine who now has a 3-1-2-1 record in the race and the place was a good bet. As an Arc trial though, it wasn't really beneficial as he's not qualified to run.

My AP bet for the Arc, Aventure ran well in the Prix Vermeille, there was a moment i thought she may win, but fair play to Bluestocking who rallied well after  being headed. The last 3 x 200 metre sectionals for Aventure were good, it was the fastest time by standard, only beaten 0.75L and goes for the Arc with a decent chance in my opinion, although i'm surprised she's still odds of 27 on BF, the average price i've backed her at since early June. Mind you, a lot depends on the draw in the Arc. As for the winner Bluestocking, i have a feeling she will not run and go to Ascot instead.

Unfortunately, i laid Bluestocking in the morning, albeit not heavy and Iresine covered it with profit as well.

Sosie was a win bet at 4.3 (PMU) and i always felt good about this one. Lightly raced, 3 unbeaten runs at Longchamp (including a G1 and G2) and over CD. He was eased down and won cosily to my eyes, so i assume Maxime will choose Sosie over Aventure, although he did have a riding agreement with the owners in 2018 (i'm not aware if this was extended).

I'm not convinced Look De Vega is a 12f horse and he prefers heavy going, although that is a possible on Arc day of course.

Maybe the best Arc trial was actually run in Ireland the previous day, not by Economics who won the Champion stakes in a fast time (will not run in the Arc) but by the Japanese colt Shin Emperor. I'm not suggesting he will win and he probably needs decent going, but this was a good run.

Moving on to my syndicate horse (including Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet) Salamanca Lad (11/2) was stepped up in trip (10f) and class (4) at Sandown on Wednesday, making the pace and looked booked for 2nd, but lost a couple of places late on to finish 4th, beaten a couple of necks for 2nd. He will drop back to 8f (maybe even 7f) next time out and we expect he will have 1 or 2 runs before being sold at the HIT sales in October (reserve permitting).

Agouti Bear (5/2f) ran well and finished in the same position at Dundalk on Friday, but had the worst draw (17, effectively 14 due to NR's) and wandered a bit late on. She actually led in the final furlong (1.31 IR) but the early exertion of getting across took its toll.

The usual Sunday cards this afternoon, i'm not interested in anything really and there are no decent meetings in France either (a listed race in Creon) but Charlie Appleby sends Rebels Romance to Germany for the G1 Preis von Europa, a race he won in 2022. I may have a small win bet.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Good luck with your daughters share in the Bear today Andrew, the blinkers should help her concentrate in final furlong. She's ran 3 decent races and mark doesn't seem too high so lets hope she can hang on this afternoon.

Likedbymike just enhanced the form of last run Andrew, that was the trainers first winner for 13 years, i'd posted about it lto on the Irish Sports forum, hopefully a good sign.

Not to be, but again went odds on IR, travelled well but just not getting home. That's also the problem so many very good apprentices taking weight off the first 3. Might be better back at 5fs perhaps.

I asked Mr Spreadsheet to post on my behalf.

Good afternoon Guys,

Stewarts Rise

Many thanks for your interest in the 2 year old filly, Agouti Bear and the associated posts, much appreciated. I wasn't aware she went odds-on IR, but 2f out i thought she would be placed. It was a decent nursery, almost 30,000 euros for the winner, but we nicked 500 for 6th to take her total prize money to £9322 in 4 runs. She usually races prominently as you know, although the plan was to hold her-up this time, but i tend to agree with you about the trip.

She's still a baby, so fingers crossed for next year; it's possible she may be put away over the winter now, Danny will decide in due course.

My other one, Salamanca Lad is entered for a couple of races next Monday (7th) at Pontefract and Yarmouth amongst others on 9th, 12th and 13th, the latter at Goodwood. As he will be going to the HIT sales at Newmarket later this month (28th-1st November) i will certainly make every effort to come over; i'm actually hoping it's Goodwood, i love it there. If we do sell (he will have a reserve) we plan to buy another and a short list is already in progress.

I'm off to Paris on Friday afternoon for Arc weekend, 6 of us going, the same group as last year, including posters Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet. Really looking forward to it, my favourite 2 day meeting, one i rarely miss and will be posting on Saturday and Sunday (via one of the pre-mentioned).

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.

Good morning Guys,

Staying in La Defense area of Paris for the Arc weekend, 4 of our 'group' arrived yesterday, three more to follow this morning (one more than anticipated) including posters Mr Spreadsheet and Lucky Luciano.

My favourite weekend of racing, one i try not to miss since my first in 1980 when Pat Eddery won on Detroit, 9 races per day with a total of 13 group races including the 2 Arab races. For anyone who has never been, i can recommend it, at 64 euros for a 2 day ticket (booked in advance) for non-reserved seating, it's good value compared to other major festivals.

Free transportation to the course from a couple of metro stations in the West of Paris, and although queueing to place bets, buying food and drink still exists, it's nowhere near the level as bygone years at the old course, whether in the grandstand or the garden area.

Todays card looks a little sub-standard compared to previous years, although Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore look likely to bring euros home in a couple of the earlier group races, but i think the locals will outperform us later.

The going is currently soft (3.7) although such measurements are rarely accurate there, last years Arc day a typical example, 'good to soft' but 6 of the 8 races were won in 'fast by standard' times. Having said that it certainly looked soft enough at St Cloud yesterday that is almost walking distance from Longchamp.

An earlier start than Sunday with the Prix Chaudenay (12.23 UK time) and Illinois, the only non-French trained runner should win the opener, take him out, it's a poor G2 field and he has the plum draw in stall 1. Ante-post backers of Sosie for the Arc will be watching this race with interest as he finished a 2L 2nd to him in the Grand Prix De Paris in August. In my opinion, this is the banker of the day, more so than Kyprios, but he's priced accordingly.

I will not be playing in the Arab group race next up, i don't recognise any of them and wouldn't have a clue.

Kyprios looks another likely winner for the AOB/RM team in the G1 Prix Du Cadran, a race he won so impressively in 2022, but again will be priced accordingly. Mind you, i have a lot of time for who is probably his main rival in Double Major, regular readers of this thread know i have backed this one a few times. One of the better French stayers, winner of the G1 Prix Royal Oak last year and was impressive when winning at Deauville by 7L LTO. Stepping up in trip and by some distance (+5f) but it wouldn't be a shock if he won.

I will be backing both shorties, but not significantly, my banker of the 2 days runs tomorrow.

I'm not interested in the handicap that follows and from a betting perspective, nor the 2 year old race (14.50) although i may have a small EW bet on Relaxx. She ran well at Deauville to finish a close 3rd after winning easily at Chantilly and although easily brushed aside over 7f on course LTO, not many got into the race behind an impressive winner.

In the G2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein i will have a small EW bet on my favourite French trainer/jockey combination and Ramadan at double figure odds. If he can reproduce his earlier season form, including 5th in the French Guineas he could figure in the finish.

An O'Brien could win the Prix Du Royallieu (3.25) but on this occasion, the younger one with Thunder Roll, another at double figure odds. Well beaten in this race last year, but was drawn in 12 and didn't have a clear run. Ran well at Leopardstown LTO and is drawn in 3, i make her the best EW bet of the afternoon.

Finally, a lay, and one that will be fancied, Anmatt in the G2 Prix Dollar (16.35) winner of the race in 2022 and a record of 8/13. A decent gelding, but now approaching 7 years old and although winning LTO, will need to do more in what is a half-decent and open field.

The weather looks reasonable today, sunny with 17c forecast, better than expected for tomorrow.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Posting on behalf of Andrew in Sweden

A good, interesting and informative read as usual, have a great weekend with the boys and best of luck with your picks.

Can't fail to be a great weekend in that place win or lose , enjoy Andrew & team   

Well done with Ramadan Andrew, should pay the expenses at the very least.

Yes excellent pick Andrew, unfortunately you've got to fast, reflect and pray for a month now ,  unfortunately i missed the race as i was busy in Ireland.

short price double wins 18/1 winner 25/1 placer and horse lay well beat top bombing

Great tipping Andrew

Ramadan WON
Thunder Roll 4th
Anmatt (Lay) Unplaced

How did I miss this post!

Was on early but didn't see it and missed all the races as dragged to buy daughter's wedding dress. £2k down for the day, these tips would have covered that!! Really fantastic tipping, doubt we will hear anything today, going to be some sore heads this morning

Posting on behalf of Andrew In Sweden (regular readers know my forum access had been revoked due to location).

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts yesterday, much appreciated. Stewarts Rise, the only praying i will be doing this afternoon is just before the opening race ;-).

A superb day in Paris yesterday, and not only at Longchamp where Mr Spreadsheet and i had a winning afternoon, the others preferring to walk around the city. Today, we're all going, 7 of us and could be meeting another 2 later.

A reasonable crowd for the Saturday, and as per normal at this meeting, English speaking racegoers were in abundance. Weather was good, sunny, around 17c, ideal for me as i was suited.

Illinois stayed on really well after momentarily looking beaten in the straight, so a good start with my biggest bet of the day (PMU 1.40). Kyprios won the Cadran as most of us expected and although i mentioned AOB would win with these, i didn't back him in the end, deciding to watch him run without a bet in the race.

Ramadan won at 18/1 (PMU 14.6) a good result financially and also my favourite French trainer/jockey combination. Roll of Thunder finished 4th at 25/1 (PMU 32) only beaten a neck for 3rd after looking likely to place before Christophe Soumillon came with a Dancing Brave run on the outside to win going away. This was Aidan's 4th winner on course, and for good measure he also had a double in Ireland, superb trainer, but he needs reporting to the monopoly's commission.

My lay, the well backed 5/4f Anmaat was well beaten (i was amazed at the short SP) to round off a good afternoon, but i also had a fun win bet on Almagam (PMU 14) who made it an exciting race for me with RM getting a good run out of him only to be beaten a head.

We left the course after this race, met up with the others for dinner in the Latin Quarter and had a fun evening with plenty of banter.

On to today, a good card overall, as expected on Arc day with 7 G1 races if you include the Arabian world cup (14.40) featuring Al Ghadeer, the 'Frankel' of this horse type who won the race in 2023 and will probably start the shortest odds of the afternoon.

The far rail will be moved to provide fresh ground with a 6 metre wide cut-away 450 metres from the first winning post. Going will be soft (currently 3,6) as winning times yesterday support this.

My first bet will be in the opener, the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac (12.55) normally run later on the card and a guide to the following years 1000 guineas. A race i like and won by 2 of my favourite French fillies in Blue Rose Cen (2022) and Zarkava (2007) who both went on to better things, including an Arc win for the latter.

In my opinion, Zarigana, a grand-daughter of Zarkava with a similar running style is the best 2 year old filly in France and i've thought this since her win over CD last month. On ratings alone, she has improve to win, but considering she's only had a couple of runs (won both) this is anticipated. A decent draw in 5, she will probably race mid-field, but has inherited a superb turn of foot from her Grandmother and i expect Mickael Barzalona to 'press the button' at the 400 metre pole and go on to win. I will be disappointed if she doesn't, but like all punters, it's all about opinions, i've been wrong before and will be again, although i have a feeling this filly is special and could be a potential Arc winner in 2025.

The G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (13.30) appears to be open, and although i think Field of Gold will be overbet, i doubt i want to lay it. If i play, it will be a small EW on the French colt Misunderstood who was impressive on the course LTO and could be anything. A tricky draw in 7 could be offset by making the running as i envisage.

The Prix L'Abbaye (14.05) is a benefit race for British stables, in fact the home team have only won it on 4 occasions since 1987 (i couldn't be bothered to check back further). The French don't do sprinters, not a total surprise considering L'Esgargots (Snails) are a delicacy over there, and in a 16 runner field this afternoon, they are only represented by 3 entries, a couple of them 66/1.

On soft going, a low draw is paramount and my original selection, the Richard Hughes trained No Half Measures has been handed the 12 stall, so my EW stake will be reduced and that's even if i decide to back it. Mind you, he ran well to finish 6th over CD on trials day from stall 10 and was only beaten 0.75L in a bunch finish, although it's a stronger field today.

Moving on to the Arc, the main event, even though the field could be described as 'not a vintage one' by any means, but it's certainly an open one. Sadly the non-participation of City Of Troy, Economics and White Birch, combined with the ridiculous rule that restricts geldings from running has robbed racing fans of what could be deemed the best field for some time. Goliath, Calangadan, Iresine and Rebels Romance being this years recipients on the 'lost his wedding tackle' list. Having said that, it's a reasonable field, albeit with question marks over several. 

Regular readers know i have been backing Aventure (win only at average odds of 27) since June after she won impressively at Chantilly. 9 of the last 16 Arc winners were fillies/mares and 3 year olds in particular have a decent record. She ran well to finish a close 2nd behind Bluestocking, only beaten 0.75 after taking the lead before the 200 metre pole in the Prix Vermeille on trials day. Fair play to the winner who rallied well, but i think Aventure went too soon and in a match bet, i would want to be on her.

I was on course 3 weeks ago for the trials and readers know i was on Sosie at 4.2 that day; i think he will confirm form with Lopa De Vega who i'm not convinced stays 12f.

This afternoons Arc is difficult to weigh up, none with a rating normally required to win the race and 50% are 3 year olds with no real stand-out, at least not today. It wouldn't surprise me if there was shock result, and to this end i will have a fun EW on Zarakem who could out-run his high double figure odds if he can reproduce his Prince of Wales Ascot form behind Auguste Rodin. I will be backing Aventure for a place to cover my Arc win bet with a small profit.

I don't have a fancy for anything in the Prix L'Opera (16.05) and will probably sit this one out.

Finally, i will be laying the likely favourite, Kinross in the G1 Prix de la Floret (16.40). As with Anmaat yesterday, a decent type, one i have backed several times, but approaching 8 years old now and his previous G1 win was 2 years ago on Ascot Champions day. There's certainly plenty of pace in the field with Tribalist and Big Rock and this will suit him, i simply feel he's not the horse he was.

Changing topic, our syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad had several possible entries next week, including Pontefract and Yarmouth tomorrow, Nottingham on Wednesday and Goodwood on Sunday, but soft going has negated this. He will be entered for Southwell in a class 4 (0-80) on 21st before going to the HIT sales at Newmarket on 28th.

My other one, a 2 year old filly in Ireland, Agouti Bear has done enough for the season and although a 4 race maiden, ran well with a record of 2-2-4-0 (idled on her 2nd race, beaten 1.03 IR). She's still immature, so hopefully she comes back stronger in 2025.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

WD again Andrew.

The EW double across the two days at 25/1 and 22/1 would have been a nice payout. Thought about it but just did EW Singles in the end. I'm sure you all had a great time.

Bad luck with Aventure Andrew, nearly landed the Ante post bets, i was out most of yesterday and haven't seen the racing yet but looks like you had a very profitable weekend with the lads, Your lay Kinross also btn again.