Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
03 Feb 24
07:52
Joined:
Date Joined:
22 Apr 19
Good morning Guys from the lovely city of Dublin
A new year, so a new belated lay thread, the concept i originally started in April 2018 and have repeated since although the original format with a P/L got side-tracked in recent years, partly due to increased workload, and in last years case, a poor run to start off when i think a touch of despondency crept in. No excuses, simply 6 selections that i felt good with pre-race, but made me look foolish after the winning post.
Although the P/L selections stopped, the thread didn't and there were winners (and losers) not only from myself, but others that actually like to discuss horse racing. I really appreciate all the efforts from those involved and the thread per se is still popular, even if the forum isn't what it was. Hopefully posters will continue to contribute, but sadly more than one passed away (including Smirnoff) and The Anorak (Alan Potts) can't post at the moment, although i'm in email contact with him.
The original lay selection format was based on only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched to win a stake of £50 (not liability). A copy of the matched bet is shown, together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For transparency i will post the P/L status and everything will be recorded on this thread only.
Overall, the threads are in profit (breakdown below) but if Timeform rated me, the term 'regressing' would be mentioned and duly warranted as can be seen.
. 2018 was a good year, although i was home convalescing for several weeks so i had far more time on my hands then. Liquidity is also an issue these days, back in time i could post mid-morning with a matched bet, it's difficult to do that today except for the decent cards.
Lay Threads Record
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425
Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2019
Total 78 selections
Success 55/78
Strike rate 70%
Overall profit +£219
Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Total 28 selections
Success 18/28
Strike rate 64%
Overall profit +£0.50
Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Total 18 selections
Success 10/18
Strike rate 55%
Overall Loss -£202.50
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Overall Loss -£362.50
Note the figures above are without commission, but i'm honest enough to say the only reason i do not deduct commission is winning £50 has a better ring than £49.
Good luck in 2024.
Off to Leopardstown and the DRF later, the card has lost a little lustre with Gaelic Warrior withdrawn from the Arkle, but this was hardly a surprise. I'm a fan of the latter, but i was always going to back Marine National, specially over 17f on this track, he could be a bit special, although the odds reflect this. GW may do better over the longer trip on Sunday.
I want and expect Marine National (2.25) to win, but prior to this i will be interested to see how the Tony Bloom owned/WPM trained Bunting runs in the Spring Juvenile (1.50).
As mentioned on my previous thread, i've posted the Cheltenham Triumph winner AP in the past 2 years, Vauban and Lossiemouth; both at decent odds (16/1 and 6/1) and followed both off a cliff in their juvenile runs.
I've backed him @ 10 and 12 for the Triumph, albeit only small and i will have a EW fun bet on him tomorrow. Paul Townend has chosen the favourite Storm Heart who was impressive LTO, but he doesn't always get it right (we're alike in this context).
The breeding isn't anything to scream about, but he's a once raced maiden winner at Fontainebleau, France and the form is not too shabby with a subsequent group race runner in behind, who was only 12/1 for the G1 Grand Prix De Paris won by Feed The Flame. Jumped and ran well on hurdle debut at Limerick, but clearly has to improve to win. If he's in contention at the last, his flat race pace will be an asset. Has drifted in the betting to 14/1 (10/1 yesterday) and appears to be WPM's 5th string, but he could spring a surprise. If he doesn't, a small bet at double figure odds is not going to ruin a nights sleep.
As always, contributions are more than welcomed.
Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
A new year, so a new belated lay thread, the concept i originally started in April 2018 and have repeated since although the original format with a P/L got side-tracked in recent years, partly due to increased workload, and in last years case, a poor run to start off when i think a touch of despondency crept in. No excuses, simply 6 selections that i felt good with pre-race, but made me look foolish after the winning post.
Although the P/L selections stopped, the thread didn't and there were winners (and losers) not only from myself, but others that actually like to discuss horse racing. I really appreciate all the efforts from those involved and the thread per se is still popular, even if the forum isn't what it was. Hopefully posters will continue to contribute, but sadly more than one passed away (including Smirnoff) and The Anorak (Alan Potts) can't post at the moment, although i'm in email contact with him.
The original lay selection format was based on only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched to win a stake of £50 (not liability). A copy of the matched bet is shown, together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For transparency i will post the P/L status and everything will be recorded on this thread only.
Overall, the threads are in profit (breakdown below) but if Timeform rated me, the term 'regressing' would be mentioned and duly warranted as can be seen.
. 2018 was a good year, although i was home convalescing for several weeks so i had far more time on my hands then. Liquidity is also an issue these days, back in time i could post mid-morning with a matched bet, it's difficult to do that today except for the decent cards. Lay Threads Record
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425
Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2019
Total 78 selections
Success 55/78
Strike rate 70%
Overall profit +£219
Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Total 28 selections
Success 18/28
Strike rate 64%
Overall profit +£0.50
Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Total 18 selections
Success 10/18
Strike rate 55%
Overall Loss -£202.50
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Overall Loss -£362.50
Note the figures above are without commission, but i'm honest enough to say the only reason i do not deduct commission is winning £50 has a better ring than £49.
Good luck in 2024.
Off to Leopardstown and the DRF later, the card has lost a little lustre with Gaelic Warrior withdrawn from the Arkle, but this was hardly a surprise. I'm a fan of the latter, but i was always going to back Marine National, specially over 17f on this track, he could be a bit special, although the odds reflect this. GW may do better over the longer trip on Sunday.
I want and expect Marine National (2.25) to win, but prior to this i will be interested to see how the Tony Bloom owned/WPM trained Bunting runs in the Spring Juvenile (1.50).
As mentioned on my previous thread, i've posted the Cheltenham Triumph winner AP in the past 2 years, Vauban and Lossiemouth; both at decent odds (16/1 and 6/1) and followed both off a cliff in their juvenile runs.
I've backed him @ 10 and 12 for the Triumph, albeit only small and i will have a EW fun bet on him tomorrow. Paul Townend has chosen the favourite Storm Heart who was impressive LTO, but he doesn't always get it right (we're alike in this context).
The breeding isn't anything to scream about, but he's a once raced maiden winner at Fontainebleau, France and the form is not too shabby with a subsequent group race runner in behind, who was only 12/1 for the G1 Grand Prix De Paris won by Feed The Flame. Jumped and ran well on hurdle debut at Limerick, but clearly has to improve to win. If he's in contention at the last, his flat race pace will be an asset. Has drifted in the betting to 14/1 (10/1 yesterday) and appears to be WPM's 5th string, but he could spring a surprise. If he doesn't, a small bet at double figure odds is not going to ruin a nights sleep.
As always, contributions are more than welcomed.
Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Show More
Good morning Guys,
I requested Mr Spreadsheet to post this on my behalf; regular readers are fully aware of my current forum closure issues, although a return is work in progress, albeit not easy considering where i am.
Many thanks for the Salamanca Lad posts and to Trusty for his Nunthorpe thoughts.
The syndicate has been extremely lucky with SL, when we bought him at the HIT sales almost a year ago, a few of us thought if he could win a race it would be a bonus, but after Goodwood we began to have doubts, although that was a strong field on very sticky ground. A fantastic afternoon in the owners enclosure nevertheless.
Next time out at Ripon we were encouraged with a close 3rd place, and a few of us thought he would win at Leicester as it was a poor field. Another 2 wins and a close 2nd since is mind blowing to be honest. A line can be put through Haydock where he was going for a 4-timer; Claire (Kübler) mentioned 4 races in 6 weeks took the edge off him.
Currently rated 88 by Timeform, a RPR of 85 from the Southwell run and 78 OR, an improvement of a stone since Ripon. Dan and Claire have done a really good job with him from their impressive set-up at Lambourn, adding the tongue tie and blinkers have worked wonders.
The original plan was to keep him a year and sell at the same HIT sale next month, but a few of the team are thinking maybe we should keep him to run as a 4 year old, although there's a risk attached there of course, albeit a nice problem to have. With the sale additions he cost us 14100 + VAT and in my opinion it wouldn't surprise me if he went for double that, so my 10% share could cover a lot of the years expenses. If sold, we plan to buy another.
He could run at Newbury next Thursday, class 4, up in trip to 10f, although if soft is in the going description he won't run.
My other horse, a 2 year old filly, Agouti Bear (5% i bought for my daughter) runs in the opener at Navan (2.15) this afternoon. She ran really well on debut at the Curragh LTO and may be the favourite, but maidens are always an unknown, Ger Lyons has a newcomer with an inside draw, and Willie McCreery's runner drawn next to us was also runner-up on debut. Fingers crossed, although i suspect my daughter will be more interested in spending any potential prize money in Zara or Bershka female fashion outlets.
Haydock this afternoon is not a bad card, but i wasn't overly enamoured with the other meetings, although the group race meeting Longchamp tomorrow is interesting, featuring the Prix Du Moulin where i favour Charyn over Notable Speech slightly. As always, be aware of French going descriptions there.
Looking further ahead, i'm off to Paris next Saturday for the Arc trial meeting the following day and looking forward to watching the 3 year old filly Aventure in the Prix Vermeille, my AP bet at decent odds (average 27) for the big one in October as previously mentioned in posts on 3rd/16th June. Lightly raced, rated 112 (converted from French ratings) so has to improve, but this is a given. Never raced against colts before, but she's progressive, and the type have a good record in the Arc. Trials day is often a good meeting, 20 euros entry, reserved seat, but you basically sit where you want, the crowds are never large, surprisingly enough. Recommended for anyone that has never been.
On to this afternoon, if i do bet at Haydock, stakes will be small W/P. In the Betfair Sprint (3.35) Shouldvebeenaring back at 6f is my selection; 5 of his 6 wins were over the trip and he was runner-up in this race last year. Only 2 runs over CD, figures of 2-2 and will certainly get the strong pace he needs here. On his day he's decent and will need to be on top of his game in this field, but i think he can win. Odds of 15.0 and 3.0 for 4/TBP for a small profit if he's placed.
The Old Borough (2.25) is as tricky as it always is, and not really my choice of betting race, but i often put up a selection on a Saturday decent handicap. My rusty pin has fallen on Dancing In Paris off a lowly mark of 87, a low draw in 4, has won on the course and over the trip, but will need a personal best to win and bookmakers love these races, so really only a fun bet if i play. I will certainly be dancing in Paris next month if Aventure obliges in the Arc. Currently odds around 9.60.
Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
I requested Mr Spreadsheet to post this on my behalf; regular readers are fully aware of my current forum closure issues, although a return is work in progress, albeit not easy considering where i am.
Many thanks for the Salamanca Lad posts and to Trusty for his Nunthorpe thoughts.
The syndicate has been extremely lucky with SL, when we bought him at the HIT sales almost a year ago, a few of us thought if he could win a race it would be a bonus, but after Goodwood we began to have doubts, although that was a strong field on very sticky ground. A fantastic afternoon in the owners enclosure nevertheless.
Next time out at Ripon we were encouraged with a close 3rd place, and a few of us thought he would win at Leicester as it was a poor field. Another 2 wins and a close 2nd since is mind blowing to be honest. A line can be put through Haydock where he was going for a 4-timer; Claire (Kübler) mentioned 4 races in 6 weeks took the edge off him.
Currently rated 88 by Timeform, a RPR of 85 from the Southwell run and 78 OR, an improvement of a stone since Ripon. Dan and Claire have done a really good job with him from their impressive set-up at Lambourn, adding the tongue tie and blinkers have worked wonders.
The original plan was to keep him a year and sell at the same HIT sale next month, but a few of the team are thinking maybe we should keep him to run as a 4 year old, although there's a risk attached there of course, albeit a nice problem to have. With the sale additions he cost us 14100 + VAT and in my opinion it wouldn't surprise me if he went for double that, so my 10% share could cover a lot of the years expenses. If sold, we plan to buy another.
He could run at Newbury next Thursday, class 4, up in trip to 10f, although if soft is in the going description he won't run.
My other horse, a 2 year old filly, Agouti Bear (5% i bought for my daughter) runs in the opener at Navan (2.15) this afternoon. She ran really well on debut at the Curragh LTO and may be the favourite, but maidens are always an unknown, Ger Lyons has a newcomer with an inside draw, and Willie McCreery's runner drawn next to us was also runner-up on debut. Fingers crossed, although i suspect my daughter will be more interested in spending any potential prize money in Zara or Bershka female fashion outlets.
Haydock this afternoon is not a bad card, but i wasn't overly enamoured with the other meetings, although the group race meeting Longchamp tomorrow is interesting, featuring the Prix Du Moulin where i favour Charyn over Notable Speech slightly. As always, be aware of French going descriptions there.
Looking further ahead, i'm off to Paris next Saturday for the Arc trial meeting the following day and looking forward to watching the 3 year old filly Aventure in the Prix Vermeille, my AP bet at decent odds (average 27) for the big one in October as previously mentioned in posts on 3rd/16th June. Lightly raced, rated 112 (converted from French ratings) so has to improve, but this is a given. Never raced against colts before, but she's progressive, and the type have a good record in the Arc. Trials day is often a good meeting, 20 euros entry, reserved seat, but you basically sit where you want, the crowds are never large, surprisingly enough. Recommended for anyone that has never been.
On to this afternoon, if i do bet at Haydock, stakes will be small W/P. In the Betfair Sprint (3.35) Shouldvebeenaring back at 6f is my selection; 5 of his 6 wins were over the trip and he was runner-up in this race last year. Only 2 runs over CD, figures of 2-2 and will certainly get the strong pace he needs here. On his day he's decent and will need to be on top of his game in this field, but i think he can win. Odds of 15.0 and 3.0 for 4/TBP for a small profit if he's placed.
The Old Borough (2.25) is as tricky as it always is, and not really my choice of betting race, but i often put up a selection on a Saturday decent handicap. My rusty pin has fallen on Dancing In Paris off a lowly mark of 87, a low draw in 4, has won on the course and over the trip, but will need a personal best to win and bookmakers love these races, so really only a fun bet if i play. I will certainly be dancing in Paris next month if Aventure obliges in the Arc. Currently odds around 9.60.
Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Good to hear from you AIS, via MR S.
I do have a selection for the OBC, as usual a big price one from me but I can't get my eyes of Law Of The Sea. 66/1 e/w first 5 places with Sportsbook if you can get on; same price with all the other but only 4 places.
Ian Williams has a good record in the race 2-3-11 in the last 10 years but does unfortunately run three this afternoon, with the likely stable selection, Oneforthegutter, being ridden by Ryan Moore and AIS has picked the other stable runner Dancing In Paris!
My selection was 20L behind Divine Comedy giving that horse 2lb over 2 miles earlier in the year, today he receives 20lb and is over 2F shorter and on drying ground. Who knows if he is fit etc etc but any sort of return to form could see him at least run into a place.
GL.
I do have a selection for the OBC, as usual a big price one from me but I can't get my eyes of Law Of The Sea. 66/1 e/w first 5 places with Sportsbook if you can get on; same price with all the other but only 4 places.
Ian Williams has a good record in the race 2-3-11 in the last 10 years but does unfortunately run three this afternoon, with the likely stable selection, Oneforthegutter, being ridden by Ryan Moore and AIS has picked the other stable runner Dancing In Paris!
My selection was 20L behind Divine Comedy giving that horse 2lb over 2 miles earlier in the year, today he receives 20lb and is over 2F shorter and on drying ground. Who knows if he is fit etc etc but any sort of return to form could see him at least run into a place.
GL.
Just gone 100/1 with Paddy & Sportsbook. 62p allowed for me FFS.
Good luck Trusty - its so annoying with the bookies - can't place a bet with most and those I can I'm limited too
It is a shame, really spoils it for me. I would have liked 25 e/w @ 100/1. I really don't think that is a big bet on a horses that has less than 1% chance of winning.
I have laid Kilt in 3.15 Kemp. No three year old winner in this race last 10 years 3yo 0-8-29, although Haggis has a good record in the race ,William Haggas 2-3-5, so only laid for £50. Hopefully 2-4-6 for him by 3.20.
I have laid Kilt in 3.15 Kemp. No three year old winner in this race last 10 years 3yo 0-8-29, although Haggis has a good record in the race ,William Haggas 2-3-5, so only laid for £50. Hopefully 2-4-6 for him by 3.20.
I like to do a lay most days Trusty and he was on a short list for me today. I laid Kilt at Haydock when SL ran but I have laid Liosa tonight at Wolverhampton instead. A gelding who is genuine enough but needs to learn to settle and at 3.00 Im happy to take on. Good luck.
Issues with where Ikeaman is? Why would Slough be an issue, the old crooner still trying the con, might soon be time to tell you who and what he actually is!!
Trusty 62p
You need to start backing a few losers Trusty or you'll never get on
You need to start backing a few losers Trusty or you'll never get on
Laybet - Arkhalia Flynn 4.40 Haydock,on the drift but not under 5/2,but may be backed before off.
Just touched off late on by a rag, very bad luck but ran a cracking race again, touched 1.03 IR
cracking run from his filly. Surely more to come. VWD AIS
After losing that 62p surely back to full stakes allowed Trusty
Just a note for " Mr spreadsheet", writing in the first person on behalf of a 3rd party requires a bit of work!! hth
.... jealousy has always been an Ugly trait imo.
Envy of a serial loser conman would be a new concept GC and you obviously have not yet cottoned on despite all the evidence so just for you to let you know a bit..........Where Do I Begin........Almost There!!!
Ikeaman know the significance!! hth
Ikeaman know the significance!! hth
Fortunately I cannot read CagliariG's posts as I blocked him years ago. But I know it will be b0ll0cks.
Reasonable day for me, back came nowhere but led for 12 furlongs so feel I got a run for my money. Lay beaten out of sight, slow away and pulled like a nutter.
Reasonable day for me, back came nowhere but led for 12 furlongs so feel I got a run for my money. Lay beaten out of sight, slow away and pulled like a nutter.
Well done Trusty for ignoring the obvious porkies but using a dead thread to your own ends instead of having the guts to start one!!!
No damage as he can't read the above!!
No damage as he can't read the above!!
Well done Trusty - 100% correct re CagLIARiG - full of b0ll0cks as you say
He probably refreshes his forum thread every 5 seconds waiting in anticipation for a reply, It's all very sad.
He probably refreshes his forum thread every 5 seconds waiting in anticipation for a reply, It's all very sad.
Extremely sad that "Mr Spreadsheet " looks in a dead thread and carries on the con!! IMVHO
I asked Mr Spreadsheet to post the below on my behalf, although this will not be a regular occurrence by any means.
Good morning Guys,
Many thanks for the Agouti Bear run comments, well backed (5/2f) she was always prominent, took it up inside the final furlong and quickened to go a length up, but was run out of it close home by a strong finishing rag. I thought we had it in the last half furlong and many must have agreed, she went 1.03 IR as Stewart mentioned (sadly not laid by me). A good run nevertheless, although i think she's still a bit green, so fingers crossed for her next outing.
Over 8.2K for 2 runner-up finishes in 2 runs, not to be sniffed at and it keeps my expenses down. Mind you, when she was leading, i suspect my daughter was already logging on to the Zara website after calculating 5% of 14K for the winner. ;-)
In my post yesterday, i inadvertently mentioned Salamanca Lad will be running at Newbury next Thursday, but this was an entry from last week that didn't get taken up due to the ground. He's in the early entries for Chester next Friday (17.40) class 4 (0-80) over an extended 10f. This will be his stiffest task to date up in trip, but with an RPR of 85 could be competitive, so hopefully the draw is kind to us.
I've mentioned before that posters Mr Spreadsheet and Lucky Luciano are also involved with the horse (we often meet up for racing with a few others) and they will be going up to Chester, but i will not be attending on this occasion as i'm travelling the following morning.
A decent card at York for a Sunday this afternoon, but nothing really jumps off the page as a bet, although i did think Marine Wave in the listed race (4.00) was a potential EW bet at double figure odds. She won in the class LTO, although it's a better field this afternoon and has a 3lb penalty that makes life more difficult, but she could be improving and was impressive at Pontefract in a decent time by standard on the day. A 4/TBP could pay even money.
Across the channel at Longchamp, as much as i feel Notable Speech is pretty decent, i will be backing Charyn to win the Prix Du Moulin, albeit with a sensible stake. There's plenty of pace in the field, including Tribalist who will probably make the early running with Henry Longfellow not far away, setting it up for a sprint finish between the 2 protagonists.
Although they are racing on fresh ground, the going will certainly be on the soft side of good after 25mm rain on Thursday. Chantilly, north of the capital looked soft yesterday and we know he will handle the conditions. Of course this does not mean that Notable Speech will not.
It could be a good race, the front two in the betting are both rated 122 and HL on 121. I doubt the French horses will be involved in the finish, although i feel Ramadan is overpriced @ 40/1 (B365) albeit only for 2 places.
Finally, i noticed the forums' very own 'Baldrick' having a pop, just as he has done regularly since October 2019. Posting references to the singer Andy Williams to make out he knows who i am is hardly Sherlock Holmes. I've mentioned my name (Andrew Williams) on here before and there are photos on my profile page where my name is mentioned (KLM/AF tickets when he asked me to post proof i was travelling to Paris or Linköping for example).
He doesn't seem to have the mental capability to take in there are quite a few posters on here that know me, some very well, i go racing with them, in fact 6 of them are on my WhatsApp group and they know exactly where i live/work etc. A very sad, lonely, OCD individual in my opinion; i was going to say completely whacko, but i have my forgiving head on this morning.
Trusty
WD with the lay selection.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Good morning Guys,
Many thanks for the Agouti Bear run comments, well backed (5/2f) she was always prominent, took it up inside the final furlong and quickened to go a length up, but was run out of it close home by a strong finishing rag. I thought we had it in the last half furlong and many must have agreed, she went 1.03 IR as Stewart mentioned (sadly not laid by me). A good run nevertheless, although i think she's still a bit green, so fingers crossed for her next outing.
Over 8.2K for 2 runner-up finishes in 2 runs, not to be sniffed at and it keeps my expenses down. Mind you, when she was leading, i suspect my daughter was already logging on to the Zara website after calculating 5% of 14K for the winner. ;-)
In my post yesterday, i inadvertently mentioned Salamanca Lad will be running at Newbury next Thursday, but this was an entry from last week that didn't get taken up due to the ground. He's in the early entries for Chester next Friday (17.40) class 4 (0-80) over an extended 10f. This will be his stiffest task to date up in trip, but with an RPR of 85 could be competitive, so hopefully the draw is kind to us.
I've mentioned before that posters Mr Spreadsheet and Lucky Luciano are also involved with the horse (we often meet up for racing with a few others) and they will be going up to Chester, but i will not be attending on this occasion as i'm travelling the following morning.
A decent card at York for a Sunday this afternoon, but nothing really jumps off the page as a bet, although i did think Marine Wave in the listed race (4.00) was a potential EW bet at double figure odds. She won in the class LTO, although it's a better field this afternoon and has a 3lb penalty that makes life more difficult, but she could be improving and was impressive at Pontefract in a decent time by standard on the day. A 4/TBP could pay even money.
Across the channel at Longchamp, as much as i feel Notable Speech is pretty decent, i will be backing Charyn to win the Prix Du Moulin, albeit with a sensible stake. There's plenty of pace in the field, including Tribalist who will probably make the early running with Henry Longfellow not far away, setting it up for a sprint finish between the 2 protagonists.
Although they are racing on fresh ground, the going will certainly be on the soft side of good after 25mm rain on Thursday. Chantilly, north of the capital looked soft yesterday and we know he will handle the conditions. Of course this does not mean that Notable Speech will not.
It could be a good race, the front two in the betting are both rated 122 and HL on 121. I doubt the French horses will be involved in the finish, although i feel Ramadan is overpriced @ 40/1 (B365) albeit only for 2 places.
Finally, i noticed the forums' very own 'Baldrick' having a pop, just as he has done regularly since October 2019. Posting references to the singer Andy Williams to make out he knows who i am is hardly Sherlock Holmes. I've mentioned my name (Andrew Williams) on here before and there are photos on my profile page where my name is mentioned (KLM/AF tickets when he asked me to post proof i was travelling to Paris or Linköping for example).
He doesn't seem to have the mental capability to take in there are quite a few posters on here that know me, some very well, i go racing with them, in fact 6 of them are on my WhatsApp group and they know exactly where i live/work etc. A very sad, lonely, OCD individual in my opinion; i was going to say completely whacko, but i have my forgiving head on this morning.
Trusty
WD with the lay selection.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Andrew, just to let you know if you didn't already, that as an owner you are not allowed to Lay your horse IR (went 1.03 as stated) even as a stake saver or even to put in as a keep bet, so just as well that you couldn't. Good luck today.
Finally, i noticed the forums' very own 'Baldrick' having a pop, just as he has done regularly since October 2019. Posting references to the singer Andy Williams to make out he knows who i am is hardly Sherlock Holmes. I've mentioned my name (Andrew Williams) on here before and there are photos on my profile page where my name is mentioned (KLM/AF tickets when he asked me to post proof i was travelling to Paris or Linköping for example).
He doesn't seem to have the mental capability to take in there are quite a few posters on here that know me, some very well, i go racing with them, in fact 6 of them are on my WhatsApp group and they know exactly where i live/work etc. A very sad, lonely, OCD individual in my opinion; i was going to say completely whacko, but i have my forgiving head on this morning.
He doesn't seem to have the mental capability to take in there are quite a few posters on here that know me, some very well, i go racing with them, in fact 6 of them are on my WhatsApp group and they know exactly where i live/work etc. A very sad, lonely, OCD individual in my opinion; i was going to say completely whacko, but i have my forgiving head on this morning.
Just realised as the Bear is in your daughters name, then you may be able to lay it, before race or IR, you'll need to check up on that.
Well done on your lay last night Mr_S. I seemed to have missed AIS's winner - too much to read LOL. WD AIS as well.
Thanks Trusty - I don't have a lay today but am going to watch the 2:50 @ Longchamp - I took the 8/13 on HL for 3 places - thought that was too big - we shall see
I am laying Desert Flower in May Hill, 3PM at Donny tomorrow. I have already laid a ton at 2.26 and have another order in at 2.12. Yes it may win but I believe there are plenty of things in my favour. Trainer is not really firing like normal this year 1/5 last 14 days doesn't tell us enough but I feel the yard have underperformed this year. He has had two runners in the race in the last 10 years and both have placed, his last runner was Alpen Breeze that finished third to Powerful Breeze in 2019.
I am laying it tonight as you get the advantage of the ridiculous BF reductions if there are any non-runners tomorrow and also because I think 11/10 is already very short.
I am laying it tonight as you get the advantage of the ridiculous BF reductions if there are any non-runners tomorrow and also because I think 11/10 is already very short.
Turns out there was no rush to lay Desert Flower as it has been backed further overnight into 4/5.
These are the fancies today mainly expecting places, win will be bonus.
2.25 Cairdeas 22/1 generally 4 places. William Haggas 1-3-4. 100% place record.
3.00 Serving With Style 50/1 3 places. K R Burke 2-1-4. Can improve on better ground imo.
3.35 Sweet Memories 16/1 3 places. John & Thady Gosden 2-2-4. Gosden farms this race.
Fingers crossed for a nice payday.
These are the fancies today mainly expecting places, win will be bonus.
2.25 Cairdeas 22/1 generally 4 places. William Haggas 1-3-4. 100% place record.
3.00 Serving With Style 50/1 3 places. K R Burke 2-1-4. Can improve on better ground imo.
3.35 Sweet Memories 16/1 3 places. John & Thady Gosden 2-2-4. Gosden farms this race.
Fingers crossed for a nice payday.
Lay wins easily and all the backs are unsighted. Poor selections, apologies.
Unlucky Trusty. I've laid Faro Di Notte today in the 16:50 @ Sandown. 4 runs to date but she's a keen filly and needs to learn how to settle. I've liad @ 3.40 but she's drifted since then. Good luck all
Thought I had found 3 good prices yesterday, everything I back is mainly based on trainer record in races, and today I just cannot find anything. If forced to bet it would be Another Abbot in the opener at Sandown but will wait for tomorrow.
Well done with your Lay Mr Spreadsheet and well done Trusty with your selection Meribella in the forum competition!
Well done with your Lay Mr Spreadsheet and well done Trusty with your selection Meribella in the forum competition!
formoftheace 08 Sep 24 10:19
Finally, i noticed the forums' very own 'Baldrick' having a pop, just as he has done regularly since October 2019. Posting references to the singer Andy Williams to make out he knows who i am is hardly Sherlock Holmes. I've mentioned my name (Andrew Williams) on here before
who's david loch?
Finally, i noticed the forums' very own 'Baldrick' having a pop, just as he has done regularly since October 2019. Posting references to the singer Andy Williams to make out he knows who i am is hardly Sherlock Holmes. I've mentioned my name (Andrew Williams) on here before
who's david loch?
Rico-Dangleflaps 14 Sep 24 22:42
formoftheace 08 Sep 24 10:19
Finally, i noticed the forums' very own 'Baldrick' having a pop, just as he has done regularly since October 2019. Posting references to the singer Andy Williams to make out he knows who i am is hardly Sherlock Holmes. I've mentioned my name (Andrew Williams) on here before
who's david loch?
Ignore this p!ss….Rico being Rico…
formoftheace 08 Sep 24 10:19
Finally, i noticed the forums' very own 'Baldrick' having a pop, just as he has done regularly since October 2019. Posting references to the singer Andy Williams to make out he knows who i am is hardly Sherlock Holmes. I've mentioned my name (Andrew Williams) on here before
who's david loch?
Ignore this p!ss….Rico being Rico…
I asked Lucky Luciano to post the below on my behalf; most readers know my forum account issues.
Good morning Guys,
Thanks to all for the posts and selections.
A weekend in Paris, and Longchamp later, returning to München tomorrow evening.
A decent afternoon of group racing in several countries including the Arc trials in France, Irish and German St Legers and the Stockholm Cup in Sweden where Archie Watson sends Outbox who has finished runner-up in the race for the past 3 years.
5 group races at Longchamp, although i'm not interested in the G3 (12.33) and will probably not arrive until later for first of the Arc trials, the Prix Foy (1.33). Continuous is the rightful favourite, although 4/6 is short enough and Iresine who has a record if 3-1-2 in this race could make a race of it. Not sure if i will have a bet in the race, but if i do, it will be 2TBP on the latter.
The Prix Vermeille (2.57) is the race i'm most interested in, albeit more for my AP bet in the Arc, regular readers know i'm on Aventure (odds of 27) so she has to run well at least.
Lightly raced, only once out of the first 3 when a close 4th in the Prix De Diane (French Oaks) over an insufficient trip. Won at Deauville LTO after a 2 month break and has a good turn of foot. A low draw is a positive as long as Maxime isn't too far back in the early stages. I still have the vision of him showboating to the crowd in the final furlong when she won at Chantilly in June.
If there is a lay of a favourite on the card, i think Bluestocking could be one in this race, i'm not sure 12f is her trip (all wins between 8f and 10.5f).
The Prix Neil (3.40) is the best race on the card, featuring the front two in the betting for the Arc, Look De Vega and Sosie, and Delius, a promising 3 year old who is 3 from 4.
Look De Vega is unbeaten in 3 runs and beat Sosie by a comfortable 2.5L in the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) but that was over 10.5f. Sosie has won well since and is proven over the trip, winning the Grand Prix de Paris beating Illinois who finished runner-up in the the St Leger at Doncaster yesterday. I will be backing Sosie.
A low draw is a big advantage in Longchamp sprints, but much of the pace in the G3 (4.15) appears to be amongst the higher numbers, in particular the Czech runner and well travelled and CD winner Ponntos. If i stay for this race, i may play the Richard Hughes trained No Half Measures, but only as a fun EW bet.
Not many bets today, my afternoon is all about a meeting i often go to, in a city i love; in fact i'm returning with a couple of posters (and a few others) in October. I think we may have seen the Prix L'Abbaye winner last Friday, additionally, i may have the winner of the Prix Marcel Boussac, both on Arc day.
The weather is good here, it will be a relaxing afternoon without the stress of a lumpy bet later. Looking forward to it.
Changing topic, our Syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad didn't run at Chester on Friday due to the going, but is entered at Yarmouth and Sandown on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. My other one, Agouti Bear could be running next weekend, but is not a definite. Fingers crossed for both.
Stewarts Rise
Correct, Agouti Bear is registered in my daughters name (via Kildare Racing). I bought the 5% share as a Christmas present, the deal is i pay the monthly training and vets bills, she receives her share of the prize money (over 8K at present) and any sale proceeds we will split.
She couldn't lay the horse of course (she's not a punter anyway) but i can, although i didn't at Navan.
Trusty
Apology not necessary, i'm happy you and others put up selections on this thread.
Rico/FOTA,
I'm sure you both know i was referring to CagliariG
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Good morning Guys,
Thanks to all for the posts and selections.
A weekend in Paris, and Longchamp later, returning to München tomorrow evening.
A decent afternoon of group racing in several countries including the Arc trials in France, Irish and German St Legers and the Stockholm Cup in Sweden where Archie Watson sends Outbox who has finished runner-up in the race for the past 3 years.
5 group races at Longchamp, although i'm not interested in the G3 (12.33) and will probably not arrive until later for first of the Arc trials, the Prix Foy (1.33). Continuous is the rightful favourite, although 4/6 is short enough and Iresine who has a record if 3-1-2 in this race could make a race of it. Not sure if i will have a bet in the race, but if i do, it will be 2TBP on the latter.
The Prix Vermeille (2.57) is the race i'm most interested in, albeit more for my AP bet in the Arc, regular readers know i'm on Aventure (odds of 27) so she has to run well at least.
Lightly raced, only once out of the first 3 when a close 4th in the Prix De Diane (French Oaks) over an insufficient trip. Won at Deauville LTO after a 2 month break and has a good turn of foot. A low draw is a positive as long as Maxime isn't too far back in the early stages. I still have the vision of him showboating to the crowd in the final furlong when she won at Chantilly in June.
If there is a lay of a favourite on the card, i think Bluestocking could be one in this race, i'm not sure 12f is her trip (all wins between 8f and 10.5f).
The Prix Neil (3.40) is the best race on the card, featuring the front two in the betting for the Arc, Look De Vega and Sosie, and Delius, a promising 3 year old who is 3 from 4.
Look De Vega is unbeaten in 3 runs and beat Sosie by a comfortable 2.5L in the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) but that was over 10.5f. Sosie has won well since and is proven over the trip, winning the Grand Prix de Paris beating Illinois who finished runner-up in the the St Leger at Doncaster yesterday. I will be backing Sosie.
A low draw is a big advantage in Longchamp sprints, but much of the pace in the G3 (4.15) appears to be amongst the higher numbers, in particular the Czech runner and well travelled and CD winner Ponntos. If i stay for this race, i may play the Richard Hughes trained No Half Measures, but only as a fun EW bet.
Not many bets today, my afternoon is all about a meeting i often go to, in a city i love; in fact i'm returning with a couple of posters (and a few others) in October. I think we may have seen the Prix L'Abbaye winner last Friday, additionally, i may have the winner of the Prix Marcel Boussac, both on Arc day.
The weather is good here, it will be a relaxing afternoon without the stress of a lumpy bet later. Looking forward to it.
Changing topic, our Syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad didn't run at Chester on Friday due to the going, but is entered at Yarmouth and Sandown on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. My other one, Agouti Bear could be running next weekend, but is not a definite. Fingers crossed for both.
Stewarts Rise
Correct, Agouti Bear is registered in my daughters name (via Kildare Racing). I bought the 5% share as a Christmas present, the deal is i pay the monthly training and vets bills, she receives her share of the prize money (over 8K at present) and any sale proceeds we will split.
She couldn't lay the horse of course (she's not a punter anyway) but i can, although i didn't at Navan.
Trusty
Apology not necessary, i'm happy you and others put up selections on this thread.
Rico/FOTA,
I'm sure you both know i was referring to CagliariG
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Well done with Sosie and Iresine Andrew, pity about Blue Stocking though, hope you didn't lay it.
Yeah, pretty good going beside the possible lay suggestion Andrew
Yes Good luck Andrew, tough draw to overcome though, shamie will need to bounce her out and get to the nearside rail in straight.
I asked Lucky Luciano to post the below on my behalf; regular readers are aware of my forum rights being revoked due to where i'm located.
Good morning Guys,
A relaxing 2.5 days in Paris last weekend, the highlight being the Arc trials at Longchamp on Sunday where i had a good day considering i only really had one strong fancy (Sosie) and an AP Arc bet to watch without a bet. I was always against the 2 odds-on jollies on the card (Continuous and Look De Vega) although i didn't lay either.
I didn't arrive until just after 13.00, i wasn't interested in the earlier G3 and Arab group race. A warm, sunny afternoon and the crowd appeared to be larger than it has been in recent years, although i could still basically sit anywhere, even on the upper levels (i was on stage 3 most of the time). 20 euros for the quality of racing and no queues for anything is a bargain.
Only 3 bets on course, 2 winners and the loser was only a fun win bet on the Richards Hughes trained No Half Measures in the G3 sprint who finished 6th, albeit only beaten 0.75L in a bunch finish after finishing well. Sods law the winner was ridden by my favourite French jockey at 54/1.
As for No Half Measures, i didn't know RH had entered it again at Newbury yesterday, it won at 6/1. She's an improving filly, soft/heavy is not an issue and if she returns to Longchamp for the Prix L'Abbaye on Arc day may be worth an EW bet assuming a low draw, that is so important in the race.
My first bet, Iresine was only in the 2TBP market, but it paid 1.7 (PMU) that was more than i expected. After reviewing the field in depth, i thought there were question marks for all the field with exception of Iresine who now has a 3-1-2-1 record in the race and the place was a good bet. As an Arc trial though, it wasn't really beneficial as he's not qualified to run.
My AP bet for the Arc, Aventure ran well in the Prix Vermeille, there was a moment i thought she may win, but fair play to Bluestocking who rallied well after being headed. The last 3 x 200 metre sectionals for Aventure were good, it was the fastest time by standard, only beaten 0.75L and goes for the Arc with a decent chance in my opinion, although i'm surprised she's still odds of 27 on BF, the average price i've backed her at since early June. Mind you, a lot depends on the draw in the Arc. As for the winner Bluestocking, i have a feeling she will not run and go to Ascot instead.
Unfortunately, i laid Bluestocking in the morning, albeit not heavy and Iresine covered it with profit as well.
Sosie was a win bet at 4.3 (PMU) and i always felt good about this one. Lightly raced, 3 unbeaten runs at Longchamp (including a G1 and G2) and over CD. He was eased down and won cosily to my eyes, so i assume Maxime will choose Sosie over Aventure, although he did have a riding agreement with the owners in 2018 (i'm not aware if this was extended).
I'm not convinced Look De Vega is a 12f horse and he prefers heavy going, although that is a possible on Arc day of course.
Maybe the best Arc trial was actually run in Ireland the previous day, not by Economics who won the Champion stakes in a fast time (will not run in the Arc) but by the Japanese colt Shin Emperor. I'm not suggesting he will win and he probably needs decent going, but this was a good run.
Moving on to my syndicate horse (including Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet) Salamanca Lad (11/2) was stepped up in trip (10f) and class (4) at Sandown on Wednesday, making the pace and looked booked for 2nd, but lost a couple of places late on to finish 4th, beaten a couple of necks for 2nd. He will drop back to 8f (maybe even 7f) next time out and we expect he will have 1 or 2 runs before being sold at the HIT sales in October (reserve permitting).
Agouti Bear (5/2f) ran well and finished in the same position at Dundalk on Friday, but had the worst draw (17, effectively 14 due to NR's) and wandered a bit late on. She actually led in the final furlong (1.31 IR) but the early exertion of getting across took its toll.
The usual Sunday cards this afternoon, i'm not interested in anything really and there are no decent meetings in France either (a listed race in Creon) but Charlie Appleby sends Rebels Romance to Germany for the G1 Preis von Europa, a race he won in 2022. I may have a small win bet.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Good morning Guys,
A relaxing 2.5 days in Paris last weekend, the highlight being the Arc trials at Longchamp on Sunday where i had a good day considering i only really had one strong fancy (Sosie) and an AP Arc bet to watch without a bet. I was always against the 2 odds-on jollies on the card (Continuous and Look De Vega) although i didn't lay either.
I didn't arrive until just after 13.00, i wasn't interested in the earlier G3 and Arab group race. A warm, sunny afternoon and the crowd appeared to be larger than it has been in recent years, although i could still basically sit anywhere, even on the upper levels (i was on stage 3 most of the time). 20 euros for the quality of racing and no queues for anything is a bargain.
Only 3 bets on course, 2 winners and the loser was only a fun win bet on the Richards Hughes trained No Half Measures in the G3 sprint who finished 6th, albeit only beaten 0.75L in a bunch finish after finishing well. Sods law the winner was ridden by my favourite French jockey at 54/1.
As for No Half Measures, i didn't know RH had entered it again at Newbury yesterday, it won at 6/1. She's an improving filly, soft/heavy is not an issue and if she returns to Longchamp for the Prix L'Abbaye on Arc day may be worth an EW bet assuming a low draw, that is so important in the race.
My first bet, Iresine was only in the 2TBP market, but it paid 1.7 (PMU) that was more than i expected. After reviewing the field in depth, i thought there were question marks for all the field with exception of Iresine who now has a 3-1-2-1 record in the race and the place was a good bet. As an Arc trial though, it wasn't really beneficial as he's not qualified to run.
My AP bet for the Arc, Aventure ran well in the Prix Vermeille, there was a moment i thought she may win, but fair play to Bluestocking who rallied well after being headed. The last 3 x 200 metre sectionals for Aventure were good, it was the fastest time by standard, only beaten 0.75L and goes for the Arc with a decent chance in my opinion, although i'm surprised she's still odds of 27 on BF, the average price i've backed her at since early June. Mind you, a lot depends on the draw in the Arc. As for the winner Bluestocking, i have a feeling she will not run and go to Ascot instead.
Unfortunately, i laid Bluestocking in the morning, albeit not heavy and Iresine covered it with profit as well.
Sosie was a win bet at 4.3 (PMU) and i always felt good about this one. Lightly raced, 3 unbeaten runs at Longchamp (including a G1 and G2) and over CD. He was eased down and won cosily to my eyes, so i assume Maxime will choose Sosie over Aventure, although he did have a riding agreement with the owners in 2018 (i'm not aware if this was extended).
I'm not convinced Look De Vega is a 12f horse and he prefers heavy going, although that is a possible on Arc day of course.
Maybe the best Arc trial was actually run in Ireland the previous day, not by Economics who won the Champion stakes in a fast time (will not run in the Arc) but by the Japanese colt Shin Emperor. I'm not suggesting he will win and he probably needs decent going, but this was a good run.
Moving on to my syndicate horse (including Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet) Salamanca Lad (11/2) was stepped up in trip (10f) and class (4) at Sandown on Wednesday, making the pace and looked booked for 2nd, but lost a couple of places late on to finish 4th, beaten a couple of necks for 2nd. He will drop back to 8f (maybe even 7f) next time out and we expect he will have 1 or 2 runs before being sold at the HIT sales in October (reserve permitting).
Agouti Bear (5/2f) ran well and finished in the same position at Dundalk on Friday, but had the worst draw (17, effectively 14 due to NR's) and wandered a bit late on. She actually led in the final furlong (1.31 IR) but the early exertion of getting across took its toll.
The usual Sunday cards this afternoon, i'm not interested in anything really and there are no decent meetings in France either (a listed race in Creon) but Charlie Appleby sends Rebels Romance to Germany for the G1 Preis von Europa, a race he won in 2022. I may have a small win bet.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Good luck with your daughters share in the Bear today Andrew, the blinkers should help her concentrate in final furlong. She's ran 3 decent races and mark doesn't seem too high so lets hope she can hang on this afternoon.
Likedbymike just enhanced the form of last run Andrew, that was the trainers first winner for 13 years, i'd posted about it lto on the Irish Sports forum, hopefully a good sign.
Not to be, but again went odds on IR, travelled well but just not getting home. That's also the problem so many very good apprentices taking weight off the first 3. Might be better back at 5fs perhaps.
I asked Mr Spreadsheet to post on my behalf.
Good afternoon Guys,
Stewarts Rise
Many thanks for your interest in the 2 year old filly, Agouti Bear and the associated posts, much appreciated. I wasn't aware she went odds-on IR, but 2f out i thought she would be placed. It was a decent nursery, almost 30,000 euros for the winner, but we nicked 500 for 6th to take her total prize money to £9322 in 4 runs. She usually races prominently as you know, although the plan was to hold her-up this time, but i tend to agree with you about the trip.
She's still a baby, so fingers crossed for next year; it's possible she may be put away over the winter now, Danny will decide in due course.
My other one, Salamanca Lad is entered for a couple of races next Monday (7th) at Pontefract and Yarmouth amongst others on 9th, 12th and 13th, the latter at Goodwood. As he will be going to the HIT sales at Newmarket later this month (28th-1st November) i will certainly make every effort to come over; i'm actually hoping it's Goodwood, i love it there. If we do sell (he will have a reserve) we plan to buy another and a short list is already in progress.
I'm off to Paris on Friday afternoon for Arc weekend, 6 of us going, the same group as last year, including posters Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet. Really looking forward to it, my favourite 2 day meeting, one i rarely miss and will be posting on Saturday and Sunday (via one of the pre-mentioned).
Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Good afternoon Guys,
Stewarts Rise
Many thanks for your interest in the 2 year old filly, Agouti Bear and the associated posts, much appreciated. I wasn't aware she went odds-on IR, but 2f out i thought she would be placed. It was a decent nursery, almost 30,000 euros for the winner, but we nicked 500 for 6th to take her total prize money to £9322 in 4 runs. She usually races prominently as you know, although the plan was to hold her-up this time, but i tend to agree with you about the trip.
She's still a baby, so fingers crossed for next year; it's possible she may be put away over the winter now, Danny will decide in due course.
My other one, Salamanca Lad is entered for a couple of races next Monday (7th) at Pontefract and Yarmouth amongst others on 9th, 12th and 13th, the latter at Goodwood. As he will be going to the HIT sales at Newmarket later this month (28th-1st November) i will certainly make every effort to come over; i'm actually hoping it's Goodwood, i love it there. If we do sell (he will have a reserve) we plan to buy another and a short list is already in progress.
I'm off to Paris on Friday afternoon for Arc weekend, 6 of us going, the same group as last year, including posters Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet. Really looking forward to it, my favourite 2 day meeting, one i rarely miss and will be posting on Saturday and Sunday (via one of the pre-mentioned).
Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Good morning Guys,
Staying in La Defense area of Paris for the Arc weekend, 4 of our 'group' arrived yesterday, three more to follow this morning (one more than anticipated) including posters Mr Spreadsheet and Lucky Luciano.
My favourite weekend of racing, one i try not to miss since my first in 1980 when Pat Eddery won on Detroit, 9 races per day with a total of 13 group races including the 2 Arab races. For anyone who has never been, i can recommend it, at 64 euros for a 2 day ticket (booked in advance) for non-reserved seating, it's good value compared to other major festivals.
Free transportation to the course from a couple of metro stations in the West of Paris, and although queueing to place bets, buying food and drink still exists, it's nowhere near the level as bygone years at the old course, whether in the grandstand or the garden area.
Todays card looks a little sub-standard compared to previous years, although Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore look likely to bring euros home in a couple of the earlier group races, but i think the locals will outperform us later.
The going is currently soft (3.7) although such measurements are rarely accurate there, last years Arc day a typical example, 'good to soft' but 6 of the 8 races were won in 'fast by standard' times. Having said that it certainly looked soft enough at St Cloud yesterday that is almost walking distance from Longchamp.
An earlier start than Sunday with the Prix Chaudenay (12.23 UK time) and Illinois, the only non-French trained runner should win the opener, take him out, it's a poor G2 field and he has the plum draw in stall 1. Ante-post backers of Sosie for the Arc will be watching this race with interest as he finished a 2L 2nd to him in the Grand Prix De Paris in August. In my opinion, this is the banker of the day, more so than Kyprios, but he's priced accordingly.
I will not be playing in the Arab group race next up, i don't recognise any of them and wouldn't have a clue.
Kyprios looks another likely winner for the AOB/RM team in the G1 Prix Du Cadran, a race he won so impressively in 2022, but again will be priced accordingly. Mind you, i have a lot of time for who is probably his main rival in Double Major, regular readers of this thread know i have backed this one a few times. One of the better French stayers, winner of the G1 Prix Royal Oak last year and was impressive when winning at Deauville by 7L LTO. Stepping up in trip and by some distance (+5f) but it wouldn't be a shock if he won.
I will be backing both shorties, but not significantly, my banker of the 2 days runs tomorrow.
I'm not interested in the handicap that follows and from a betting perspective, nor the 2 year old race (14.50) although i may have a small EW bet on Relaxx. She ran well at Deauville to finish a close 3rd after winning easily at Chantilly and although easily brushed aside over 7f on course LTO, not many got into the race behind an impressive winner.
In the G2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein i will have a small EW bet on my favourite French trainer/jockey combination and Ramadan at double figure odds. If he can reproduce his earlier season form, including 5th in the French Guineas he could figure in the finish.
An O'Brien could win the Prix Du Royallieu (3.25) but on this occasion, the younger one with Thunder Roll, another at double figure odds. Well beaten in this race last year, but was drawn in 12 and didn't have a clear run. Ran well at Leopardstown LTO and is drawn in 3, i make her the best EW bet of the afternoon.
Finally, a lay, and one that will be fancied, Anmatt in the G2 Prix Dollar (16.35) winner of the race in 2022 and a record of 8/13. A decent gelding, but now approaching 7 years old and although winning LTO, will need to do more in what is a half-decent and open field.
The weather looks reasonable today, sunny with 17c forecast, better than expected for tomorrow.
Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Staying in La Defense area of Paris for the Arc weekend, 4 of our 'group' arrived yesterday, three more to follow this morning (one more than anticipated) including posters Mr Spreadsheet and Lucky Luciano.
My favourite weekend of racing, one i try not to miss since my first in 1980 when Pat Eddery won on Detroit, 9 races per day with a total of 13 group races including the 2 Arab races. For anyone who has never been, i can recommend it, at 64 euros for a 2 day ticket (booked in advance) for non-reserved seating, it's good value compared to other major festivals.
Free transportation to the course from a couple of metro stations in the West of Paris, and although queueing to place bets, buying food and drink still exists, it's nowhere near the level as bygone years at the old course, whether in the grandstand or the garden area.
Todays card looks a little sub-standard compared to previous years, although Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore look likely to bring euros home in a couple of the earlier group races, but i think the locals will outperform us later.
The going is currently soft (3.7) although such measurements are rarely accurate there, last years Arc day a typical example, 'good to soft' but 6 of the 8 races were won in 'fast by standard' times. Having said that it certainly looked soft enough at St Cloud yesterday that is almost walking distance from Longchamp.
An earlier start than Sunday with the Prix Chaudenay (12.23 UK time) and Illinois, the only non-French trained runner should win the opener, take him out, it's a poor G2 field and he has the plum draw in stall 1. Ante-post backers of Sosie for the Arc will be watching this race with interest as he finished a 2L 2nd to him in the Grand Prix De Paris in August. In my opinion, this is the banker of the day, more so than Kyprios, but he's priced accordingly.
I will not be playing in the Arab group race next up, i don't recognise any of them and wouldn't have a clue.
Kyprios looks another likely winner for the AOB/RM team in the G1 Prix Du Cadran, a race he won so impressively in 2022, but again will be priced accordingly. Mind you, i have a lot of time for who is probably his main rival in Double Major, regular readers of this thread know i have backed this one a few times. One of the better French stayers, winner of the G1 Prix Royal Oak last year and was impressive when winning at Deauville by 7L LTO. Stepping up in trip and by some distance (+5f) but it wouldn't be a shock if he won.
I will be backing both shorties, but not significantly, my banker of the 2 days runs tomorrow.
I'm not interested in the handicap that follows and from a betting perspective, nor the 2 year old race (14.50) although i may have a small EW bet on Relaxx. She ran well at Deauville to finish a close 3rd after winning easily at Chantilly and although easily brushed aside over 7f on course LTO, not many got into the race behind an impressive winner.
In the G2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein i will have a small EW bet on my favourite French trainer/jockey combination and Ramadan at double figure odds. If he can reproduce his earlier season form, including 5th in the French Guineas he could figure in the finish.
An O'Brien could win the Prix Du Royallieu (3.25) but on this occasion, the younger one with Thunder Roll, another at double figure odds. Well beaten in this race last year, but was drawn in 12 and didn't have a clear run. Ran well at Leopardstown LTO and is drawn in 3, i make her the best EW bet of the afternoon.
Finally, a lay, and one that will be fancied, Anmatt in the G2 Prix Dollar (16.35) winner of the race in 2022 and a record of 8/13. A decent gelding, but now approaching 7 years old and although winning LTO, will need to do more in what is a half-decent and open field.
The weather looks reasonable today, sunny with 17c forecast, better than expected for tomorrow.
Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
A good, interesting and informative read as usual, have a great weekend with the boys and best of luck with your picks.
Can't fail to be a great weekend in that place win or lose , enjoy Andrew & team 
Well done with Ramadan Andrew, should pay the expenses at the very least.
Yes excellent pick Andrew, unfortunately you've got to fast, reflect and pray for a month now , unfortunately i missed the race as i was busy in Ireland.
, unfortunately i missed the race as i was busy in Ireland.
short price double wins 18/1 winner 25/1 placer and horse lay well beat top bombing
Great tipping Andrew
Ramadan WON
Thunder Roll 4th
Anmatt (Lay) Unplaced
Ramadan WON
Thunder Roll 4th
Anmatt (Lay) Unplaced
How did I miss this post!
Was on early but didn't see it and missed all the races as dragged to buy daughter's wedding dress. £2k down for the day, these tips would have covered that!! Really fantastic tipping, doubt we will hear anything today, going to be some sore heads this morning
Was on early but didn't see it and missed all the races as dragged to buy daughter's wedding dress. £2k down for the day, these tips would have covered that!! Really fantastic tipping, doubt we will hear anything today, going to be some sore heads this morning
Posting on behalf of Andrew In Sweden (regular readers know my forum access had been revoked due to location).
Good morning Guys,
Many thanks for the posts yesterday, much appreciated. Stewarts Rise, the only praying i will be doing this afternoon is just before the opening race ;-).
A superb day in Paris yesterday, and not only at Longchamp where Mr Spreadsheet and i had a winning afternoon, the others preferring to walk around the city. Today, we're all going, 7 of us and could be meeting another 2 later.
A reasonable crowd for the Saturday, and as per normal at this meeting, English speaking racegoers were in abundance. Weather was good, sunny, around 17c, ideal for me as i was suited.
Illinois stayed on really well after momentarily looking beaten in the straight, so a good start with my biggest bet of the day (PMU 1.40). Kyprios won the Cadran as most of us expected and although i mentioned AOB would win with these, i didn't back him in the end, deciding to watch him run without a bet in the race.
Ramadan won at 18/1 (PMU 14.6) a good result financially and also my favourite French trainer/jockey combination. Roll of Thunder finished 4th at 25/1 (PMU 32) only beaten a neck for 3rd after looking likely to place before Christophe Soumillon came with a Dancing Brave run on the outside to win going away. This was Aidan's 4th winner on course, and for good measure he also had a double in Ireland, superb trainer, but he needs reporting to the monopoly's commission.
My lay, the well backed 5/4f Anmaat was well beaten (i was amazed at the short SP) to round off a good afternoon, but i also had a fun win bet on Almagam (PMU 14) who made it an exciting race for me with RM getting a good run out of him only to be beaten a head.
We left the course after this race, met up with the others for dinner in the Latin Quarter and had a fun evening with plenty of banter.
On to today, a good card overall, as expected on Arc day with 7 G1 races if you include the Arabian world cup (14.40) featuring Al Ghadeer, the 'Frankel' of this horse type who won the race in 2023 and will probably start the shortest odds of the afternoon.
The far rail will be moved to provide fresh ground with a 6 metre wide cut-away 450 metres from the first winning post. Going will be soft (currently 3,6) as winning times yesterday support this.
My first bet will be in the opener, the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac (12.55) normally run later on the card and a guide to the following years 1000 guineas. A race i like and won by 2 of my favourite French fillies in Blue Rose Cen (2022) and Zarkava (2007) who both went on to better things, including an Arc win for the latter.
In my opinion, Zarigana, a grand-daughter of Zarkava with a similar running style is the best 2 year old filly in France and i've thought this since her win over CD last month. On ratings alone, she has improve to win, but considering she's only had a couple of runs (won both) this is anticipated. A decent draw in 5, she will probably race mid-field, but has inherited a superb turn of foot from her Grandmother and i expect Mickael Barzalona to 'press the button' at the 400 metre pole and go on to win. I will be disappointed if she doesn't, but like all punters, it's all about opinions, i've been wrong before and will be again, although i have a feeling this filly is special and could be a potential Arc winner in 2025.
The G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (13.30) appears to be open, and although i think Field of Gold will be overbet, i doubt i want to lay it. If i play, it will be a small EW on the French colt Misunderstood who was impressive on the course LTO and could be anything. A tricky draw in 7 could be offset by making the running as i envisage.
The Prix L'Abbaye (14.05) is a benefit race for British stables, in fact the home team have only won it on 4 occasions since 1987 (i couldn't be bothered to check back further). The French don't do sprinters, not a total surprise considering L'Esgargots (Snails) are a delicacy over there, and in a 16 runner field this afternoon, they are only represented by 3 entries, a couple of them 66/1.
On soft going, a low draw is paramount and my original selection, the Richard Hughes trained No Half Measures has been handed the 12 stall, so my EW stake will be reduced and that's even if i decide to back it. Mind you, he ran well to finish 6th over CD on trials day from stall 10 and was only beaten 0.75L in a bunch finish, although it's a stronger field today.
Moving on to the Arc, the main event, even though the field could be described as 'not a vintage one' by any means, but it's certainly an open one. Sadly the non-participation of City Of Troy, Economics and White Birch, combined with the ridiculous rule that restricts geldings from running has robbed racing fans of what could be deemed the best field for some time. Goliath, Calangadan, Iresine and Rebels Romance being this years recipients on the 'lost his wedding tackle' list. Having said that, it's a reasonable field, albeit with question marks over several.
Regular readers know i have been backing Aventure (win only at average odds of 27) since June after she won impressively at Chantilly. 9 of the last 16 Arc winners were fillies/mares and 3 year olds in particular have a decent record. She ran well to finish a close 2nd behind Bluestocking, only beaten 0.75 after taking the lead before the 200 metre pole in the Prix Vermeille on trials day. Fair play to the winner who rallied well, but i think Aventure went too soon and in a match bet, i would want to be on her.
I was on course 3 weeks ago for the trials and readers know i was on Sosie at 4.2 that day; i think he will confirm form with Lopa De Vega who i'm not convinced stays 12f.
This afternoons Arc is difficult to weigh up, none with a rating normally required to win the race and 50% are 3 year olds with no real stand-out, at least not today. It wouldn't surprise me if there was shock result, and to this end i will have a fun EW on Zarakem who could out-run his high double figure odds if he can reproduce his Prince of Wales Ascot form behind Auguste Rodin. I will be backing Aventure for a place to cover my Arc win bet with a small profit.
I don't have a fancy for anything in the Prix L'Opera (16.05) and will probably sit this one out.
Finally, i will be laying the likely favourite, Kinross in the G1 Prix de la Floret (16.40). As with Anmaat yesterday, a decent type, one i have backed several times, but approaching 8 years old now and his previous G1 win was 2 years ago on Ascot Champions day. There's certainly plenty of pace in the field with Tribalist and Big Rock and this will suit him, i simply feel he's not the horse he was.
Changing topic, our syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad had several possible entries next week, including Pontefract and Yarmouth tomorrow, Nottingham on Wednesday and Goodwood on Sunday, but soft going has negated this. He will be entered for Southwell in a class 4 (0-80) on 21st before going to the HIT sales at Newmarket on 28th.
My other one, a 2 year old filly in Ireland, Agouti Bear has done enough for the season and although a 4 race maiden, ran well with a record of 2-2-4-0 (idled on her 2nd race, beaten 1.03 IR). She's still immature, so hopefully she comes back stronger in 2025.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Good morning Guys,
Many thanks for the posts yesterday, much appreciated. Stewarts Rise, the only praying i will be doing this afternoon is just before the opening race ;-).
A superb day in Paris yesterday, and not only at Longchamp where Mr Spreadsheet and i had a winning afternoon, the others preferring to walk around the city. Today, we're all going, 7 of us and could be meeting another 2 later.
A reasonable crowd for the Saturday, and as per normal at this meeting, English speaking racegoers were in abundance. Weather was good, sunny, around 17c, ideal for me as i was suited.
Illinois stayed on really well after momentarily looking beaten in the straight, so a good start with my biggest bet of the day (PMU 1.40). Kyprios won the Cadran as most of us expected and although i mentioned AOB would win with these, i didn't back him in the end, deciding to watch him run without a bet in the race.
Ramadan won at 18/1 (PMU 14.6) a good result financially and also my favourite French trainer/jockey combination. Roll of Thunder finished 4th at 25/1 (PMU 32) only beaten a neck for 3rd after looking likely to place before Christophe Soumillon came with a Dancing Brave run on the outside to win going away. This was Aidan's 4th winner on course, and for good measure he also had a double in Ireland, superb trainer, but he needs reporting to the monopoly's commission.
My lay, the well backed 5/4f Anmaat was well beaten (i was amazed at the short SP) to round off a good afternoon, but i also had a fun win bet on Almagam (PMU 14) who made it an exciting race for me with RM getting a good run out of him only to be beaten a head.
We left the course after this race, met up with the others for dinner in the Latin Quarter and had a fun evening with plenty of banter.
On to today, a good card overall, as expected on Arc day with 7 G1 races if you include the Arabian world cup (14.40) featuring Al Ghadeer, the 'Frankel' of this horse type who won the race in 2023 and will probably start the shortest odds of the afternoon.
The far rail will be moved to provide fresh ground with a 6 metre wide cut-away 450 metres from the first winning post. Going will be soft (currently 3,6) as winning times yesterday support this.
My first bet will be in the opener, the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac (12.55) normally run later on the card and a guide to the following years 1000 guineas. A race i like and won by 2 of my favourite French fillies in Blue Rose Cen (2022) and Zarkava (2007) who both went on to better things, including an Arc win for the latter.
In my opinion, Zarigana, a grand-daughter of Zarkava with a similar running style is the best 2 year old filly in France and i've thought this since her win over CD last month. On ratings alone, she has improve to win, but considering she's only had a couple of runs (won both) this is anticipated. A decent draw in 5, she will probably race mid-field, but has inherited a superb turn of foot from her Grandmother and i expect Mickael Barzalona to 'press the button' at the 400 metre pole and go on to win. I will be disappointed if she doesn't, but like all punters, it's all about opinions, i've been wrong before and will be again, although i have a feeling this filly is special and could be a potential Arc winner in 2025.
The G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (13.30) appears to be open, and although i think Field of Gold will be overbet, i doubt i want to lay it. If i play, it will be a small EW on the French colt Misunderstood who was impressive on the course LTO and could be anything. A tricky draw in 7 could be offset by making the running as i envisage.
The Prix L'Abbaye (14.05) is a benefit race for British stables, in fact the home team have only won it on 4 occasions since 1987 (i couldn't be bothered to check back further). The French don't do sprinters, not a total surprise considering L'Esgargots (Snails) are a delicacy over there, and in a 16 runner field this afternoon, they are only represented by 3 entries, a couple of them 66/1.
On soft going, a low draw is paramount and my original selection, the Richard Hughes trained No Half Measures has been handed the 12 stall, so my EW stake will be reduced and that's even if i decide to back it. Mind you, he ran well to finish 6th over CD on trials day from stall 10 and was only beaten 0.75L in a bunch finish, although it's a stronger field today.
Moving on to the Arc, the main event, even though the field could be described as 'not a vintage one' by any means, but it's certainly an open one. Sadly the non-participation of City Of Troy, Economics and White Birch, combined with the ridiculous rule that restricts geldings from running has robbed racing fans of what could be deemed the best field for some time. Goliath, Calangadan, Iresine and Rebels Romance being this years recipients on the 'lost his wedding tackle' list. Having said that, it's a reasonable field, albeit with question marks over several.
Regular readers know i have been backing Aventure (win only at average odds of 27) since June after she won impressively at Chantilly. 9 of the last 16 Arc winners were fillies/mares and 3 year olds in particular have a decent record. She ran well to finish a close 2nd behind Bluestocking, only beaten 0.75 after taking the lead before the 200 metre pole in the Prix Vermeille on trials day. Fair play to the winner who rallied well, but i think Aventure went too soon and in a match bet, i would want to be on her.
I was on course 3 weeks ago for the trials and readers know i was on Sosie at 4.2 that day; i think he will confirm form with Lopa De Vega who i'm not convinced stays 12f.
This afternoons Arc is difficult to weigh up, none with a rating normally required to win the race and 50% are 3 year olds with no real stand-out, at least not today. It wouldn't surprise me if there was shock result, and to this end i will have a fun EW on Zarakem who could out-run his high double figure odds if he can reproduce his Prince of Wales Ascot form behind Auguste Rodin. I will be backing Aventure for a place to cover my Arc win bet with a small profit.
I don't have a fancy for anything in the Prix L'Opera (16.05) and will probably sit this one out.
Finally, i will be laying the likely favourite, Kinross in the G1 Prix de la Floret (16.40). As with Anmaat yesterday, a decent type, one i have backed several times, but approaching 8 years old now and his previous G1 win was 2 years ago on Ascot Champions day. There's certainly plenty of pace in the field with Tribalist and Big Rock and this will suit him, i simply feel he's not the horse he was.
Changing topic, our syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad had several possible entries next week, including Pontefract and Yarmouth tomorrow, Nottingham on Wednesday and Goodwood on Sunday, but soft going has negated this. He will be entered for Southwell in a class 4 (0-80) on 21st before going to the HIT sales at Newmarket on 28th.
My other one, a 2 year old filly in Ireland, Agouti Bear has done enough for the season and although a 4 race maiden, ran well with a record of 2-2-4-0 (idled on her 2nd race, beaten 1.03 IR). She's still immature, so hopefully she comes back stronger in 2025.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
WD again Andrew.
The EW double across the two days at 25/1 and 22/1 would have been a nice payout. Thought about it but just did EW Singles in the end. I'm sure you all had a great time.
The EW double across the two days at 25/1 and 22/1 would have been a nice payout. Thought about it but just did EW Singles in the end. I'm sure you all had a great time.
Bad luck with Aventure Andrew, nearly landed the Ante post bets, i was out most of yesterday and haven't seen the racing yet but looks like you had a very profitable weekend with the lads, Your lay Kinross also btn again.
another good run by Salamanca Lad at Wolverhampton last night, is he now off to the sales?
Ashleigh
A few of us went up to Wolverhampton Saturday and he ran another game race. He has been so consistent for us and is a real trier.
Salamanca Lad has now been top four in 9 out of 11 runs (3 wins) which has been nothing short of fantasy for our first year in ownership.
He is entered in the Newmarket HIT sale next Monday but we have a split in the camp about selling, so a sensible reserve price (to be decided in a teams meeting this week) will be applied.
Personally I hope he comes back to us as he owes us nothing and the fun we have had this year has been priceless.
A few of us went up to Wolverhampton Saturday and he ran another game race. He has been so consistent for us and is a real trier.
Salamanca Lad has now been top four in 9 out of 11 runs (3 wins) which has been nothing short of fantasy for our first year in ownership.
He is entered in the Newmarket HIT sale next Monday but we have a split in the camp about selling, so a sensible reserve price (to be decided in a teams meeting this week) will be applied.
Personally I hope he comes back to us as he owes us nothing and the fun we have had this year has been priceless.
Thanks for the replying LL - Couldn't agree more. Finding a horse that's genuine and is straightforward and tries is not as easy as you think. Fingers crossed for next Monday
Think I have found a nice priced one which I will post later as struggling as normal to get any decent bets on.
Laafi 3.15 Doncaster
Perhaps not an obvious selection which is why it is 20/1 and is the stable "second" string, with Ryan Moore on the stable favourite but it is this time of year when the stable second strings come to their fore with at least Charlie Appleby and Ralph Beckett securing some nice prices at Newmarket earlier in the week with their least fancied runner.
The selection itself is 2lb below their last winning mark and won this time last year at next week's Newmarket meeting. It is the time of year when trainers have to get winners for the owners to keep them interested for next year and I particularly like horses that are yet to win this season. It is a business after all.
Lastly the selection is ridden by Callum Rodriguez who has a 100% place record for the stable from 5 rides and a 40% win strike rate.
I have had a decent e/w although it is 40.0 on here for the win so the miserable 20/1 with the books is not great value, as always.
I have also put it in an e/w double with Secret Trix in 2.55 Cheltenham, will like the better ground, slightly shorter trip and being back over hurdles. 25/1 looked overpriced for a stable in good form.
GL.
Perhaps not an obvious selection which is why it is 20/1 and is the stable "second" string, with Ryan Moore on the stable favourite but it is this time of year when the stable second strings come to their fore with at least Charlie Appleby and Ralph Beckett securing some nice prices at Newmarket earlier in the week with their least fancied runner.
The selection itself is 2lb below their last winning mark and won this time last year at next week's Newmarket meeting. It is the time of year when trainers have to get winners for the owners to keep them interested for next year and I particularly like horses that are yet to win this season. It is a business after all.
Lastly the selection is ridden by Callum Rodriguez who has a 100% place record for the stable from 5 rides and a 40% win strike rate.
I have had a decent e/w although it is 40.0 on here for the win so the miserable 20/1 with the books is not great value, as always.
I have also put it in an e/w double with Secret Trix in 2.55 Cheltenham, will like the better ground, slightly shorter trip and being back over hurdles. 25/1 looked overpriced for a stable in good form.
GL.
Trusty, when you start your premium tipping line, I'll be signing up! Cheers!!
Shame Secret Trix let me down for the double but I'll take it.
I had to open two new accounts to get my Laafi bets on at 20/1 and thing returns 33/1, not sure they will remain open for long.
I had to open two new accounts to get my Laafi bets on at 20/1 and thing returns 33/1, not sure they will remain open for long.
59/1 on here trusty bfsp hope ya stuck a few quid on that
i always do wi the bigger uns ^ as bfsp near always much better
Ralph Beckett does it again, 3 runners in the race and the least fancied of the three and the least fancied of the field WINS!
Yes gotta love 2nd and 3rd strings , bet Foyles was on it
WD Trusty
Sound write up
Wish had seen it earlier
Big stringers way to go
Sound write up
Wish had seen it earlier
Big stringers way to go
Lucky Luciano posting on behalf of Andrew in Sweden.
Good morning Guys,
Many thanks for all the posts since my previous one on Arc Sunday from Paris, but the plaudits certainly belong to Trusty with a superb winning selection yesterday in Laafi @ 33/1. As Madhatters mentioned, a good write up, but unfortunately i didn't see it either. VWD Trusty and it appears you won a nice few quid.
Changing topic, our syndicate horse Salamanca Lad left Dan and Claire Kübler's stable in Lambourn yesterday morning to spend a couple of days at Newmarket (consignor is Baroda stud) prior to the HIT sales commencing tomorrow, running through to Friday. We are LOT 132, so expect us to go through the ring before lunchtime. For those that are interested, a link to the sale (and live video) is below.
https://www.tattersalls.com/sales/autumn-horses-in-training-sale/4DCGI/Sale/AUT24/Main/Overview
As intimated by owners Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet, there are mixed emotions in the team, albeit totally understandable. We didn't have high hopes a year ago when we purchased him at the same sale (12K Gns) and none of us were under any illusions of making a profit, we are simply a group of people that get on well and meet up on occasion to go racing, although a couple of the guys had been owners before.
A promising debut (close 4th) at Southwell was followed by a couple of 3rd places sandwiching his underperforming run at Goodwood, although the latter was a decent field for the class (winner subsequently ran in the Queens Vase at RA behind Illinois and several winners have come out of the race) and on heavy going that didn't suit. Having said that it was a fantastic afternoon in the owners area where we were treated very well.
The application of headgear made a considerable difference, winning his next 3 races all over 8f, going up in the ratings as a consequence. 4 runs in the space of 6 weeks was reason for a lack lustre run at Haydock, but a short break rekindled him when he was just touched off beaten a head next time out. He was stepped up in trip to 10f/9.5f on his last couple of runs and ran well enough in 4th/3rd place respectively.
He has surpassed all our expectations, Dan and Claire have done an exceptional job with him; improving him no end and given the team a lot of fun. Currently rated 78 by BHA, 86 by Timeform and a RPR of 84-82-84 in his previous 3 runs.
If he meets his reserve price, there will be a few solemn faces, but the original syndicate agreement was to keep him 1 year. In this case, we will purchase another at the same sale, but if he isn't sold, will return to Dan and Claires for another year.
As my forum rights have been taken away due to my location (hence friends posting on my behalf) i will take this opportunity to put up a selection, albeit sadly not in the Trusty SP bracket.
The horse in question is Maranoa Charlie, the joint 2nd highest rated 2 year old in France who runs in the G1 Grand Criterium (12.23) at St Cloud this afternoon. A 3/3 record to date, including one over CD on very soft and has looked a potential French guineas winner. Has the AOB trained Twain to beat (won his only start by 6L, albeit a maiden). The going is expected to be heavy @ 4.6, but this shouldn't be an issue for the favourite currently trading at evens, although liquidity is poor at the moment. I've already backed small at odds between 1.99 and 2.20 and will be adding later as i expect him to win.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Good morning Guys,
Many thanks for all the posts since my previous one on Arc Sunday from Paris, but the plaudits certainly belong to Trusty with a superb winning selection yesterday in Laafi @ 33/1. As Madhatters mentioned, a good write up, but unfortunately i didn't see it either. VWD Trusty and it appears you won a nice few quid.
Changing topic, our syndicate horse Salamanca Lad left Dan and Claire Kübler's stable in Lambourn yesterday morning to spend a couple of days at Newmarket (consignor is Baroda stud) prior to the HIT sales commencing tomorrow, running through to Friday. We are LOT 132, so expect us to go through the ring before lunchtime. For those that are interested, a link to the sale (and live video) is below.
https://www.tattersalls.com/sales/autumn-horses-in-training-sale/4DCGI/Sale/AUT24/Main/Overview
As intimated by owners Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet, there are mixed emotions in the team, albeit totally understandable. We didn't have high hopes a year ago when we purchased him at the same sale (12K Gns) and none of us were under any illusions of making a profit, we are simply a group of people that get on well and meet up on occasion to go racing, although a couple of the guys had been owners before.
A promising debut (close 4th) at Southwell was followed by a couple of 3rd places sandwiching his underperforming run at Goodwood, although the latter was a decent field for the class (winner subsequently ran in the Queens Vase at RA behind Illinois and several winners have come out of the race) and on heavy going that didn't suit. Having said that it was a fantastic afternoon in the owners area where we were treated very well.
The application of headgear made a considerable difference, winning his next 3 races all over 8f, going up in the ratings as a consequence. 4 runs in the space of 6 weeks was reason for a lack lustre run at Haydock, but a short break rekindled him when he was just touched off beaten a head next time out. He was stepped up in trip to 10f/9.5f on his last couple of runs and ran well enough in 4th/3rd place respectively.
He has surpassed all our expectations, Dan and Claire have done an exceptional job with him; improving him no end and given the team a lot of fun. Currently rated 78 by BHA, 86 by Timeform and a RPR of 84-82-84 in his previous 3 runs.
If he meets his reserve price, there will be a few solemn faces, but the original syndicate agreement was to keep him 1 year. In this case, we will purchase another at the same sale, but if he isn't sold, will return to Dan and Claires for another year.
As my forum rights have been taken away due to my location (hence friends posting on my behalf) i will take this opportunity to put up a selection, albeit sadly not in the Trusty SP bracket.
The horse in question is Maranoa Charlie, the joint 2nd highest rated 2 year old in France who runs in the G1 Grand Criterium (12.23) at St Cloud this afternoon. A 3/3 record to date, including one over CD on very soft and has looked a potential French guineas winner. Has the AOB trained Twain to beat (won his only start by 6L, albeit a maiden). The going is expected to be heavy @ 4.6, but this shouldn't be an issue for the favourite currently trading at evens, although liquidity is poor at the moment. I've already backed small at odds between 1.99 and 2.20 and will be adding later as i expect him to win.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
xmoneyx
As your friend clearly can't read i thought i'd help him:
I've already backed small at odds between 1.99 and 2.20 and will be adding later as i expect him to win.
Andrew doesn't shy away from saying he backed a loser
hth.
As your friend clearly can't read i thought i'd help him:
I've already backed small at odds between 1.99 and 2.20 and will be adding later as i expect him to win.
Andrew doesn't shy away from saying he backed a loser
hth.
Good morning all, I hope I have found another winner in the 1.07 Newmarket The Caribbean. Currently 16/1 but has been 20/1 earlier. First the horse is dropped back to 6F for the first time since leaving AOB and the trainer is is hot form 4/7 and even the jockey is 4/16 and 2/3 last couple of days. Be nice if it drifted back out to 20+ later and I would not take less than 16/1.
No good at all, thought the ground looked much slower than I thought it was but very poor effort in any circumstance. Going to try and recover stake on stable mate in 4.00 - Tanmawwy.
My fault posting this a tad late but message from Andrew
Lucky Luciano posting on my behalf of Andrew in Sweden.
Good morning Guys,
A decent afternoon of racing for a Sunday, including a graded race at Naas featuring the return of Marine Nationale, a G1 in Germany with 4 English based hopefuls, a few listed races in France and a couple of group races in Italy where Archie Watson and Andrew Balding have a runner.
I'm off to the course at Riem, München later, primarily to watch the Grosser Allianz Preis von Bayern, a lucky race for me as i was there for Alpinista in 2021 and Junko last year (didn't go in 2022) although they were easy enough to pick (4/5f and 13/10 2nd f). A good field this afternoon and much more open than recent years, but i think the French can win again with the very consistent Marquisat trained by Andre Fabre. He was only beaten a nose by Junko at Chantilly in his penultimate run and finished 3rd to Goliath at Longchamp LTO, both runs on heavy. The going at München is generally soft this time of the year, although we haven't had an excess of rain in recent weeks, so it shouldn't it heavy. Charlie Appleby's Ancient Wisdom will probably be favourite and his runners to well in Germany, but i think Marquisat will come from off the pace in the long straight.
Betfair exchange doesn't cover München but the Sportsbook does and live video is available on Deutscher galopp.
My previous selection a couple of weeks ago, Maranoa Charlie was well beaten at Saint Cloud, but anyone who backed it (including me) would have known at a very early stage of the race that he couldn't win. Went off like the proverbial scalded cat and was 10L clear at the bend, but it was clearly obvious he couldn't keep that pace up on heavy going, i doubt even Frankel could. He finished well beaten and tired in 4th, but this run can be ignored, he's better than this.
Stewart/Glasgow
Thanks for the supporting posts, sure i got it wrong, but i'm no different to anyone on here, i win and lose, although i don't post tosh or exaggerated claims.
Trusty
Thanks for your selections.
Moving on to our Fellowship Racing syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad was sold at the recent HIT sales and reached 24,000; considering we paid 12,000 last October a decent profit and almost 17,000 in prize money. We had him for 11 races, winning 3, beaten a head in another and was only twice out of the first 4, going up 14lb, testament to a fantastic job Dan and Claire Kübler did. He will be racing in Bahrain for his new owners; i'm sure they will have a lot of fun with him.
We bought another at the same sale a couple of days later, a 2 year old Twilight Son colt, Calibos, a 4 race maiden. We paid 16,000 this time, so after expenses a return on our initial investment, including VAT, although taking the year overall, i suspect a small loss. Having said this, we are not in it for the money.
As with Salamanca Lad, we feel there will be improvement next year stepped up in trip. Still a colt, but is expected to be gelded tomorrow.
A busy few weeks of travel forthcoming, i'm off to Paris on Saturday for II Est Francais in the G1 Prix La Haye Jousselin at Auteuil the following day. I've never been to the course before, so i'm looking forward to it, although it will probably be my only visit there, in fact, if it wasn't for the horse i doubt i would ever go. I've already backed him AP for the KG, so hopefully he wins, although i will not be there to watch him. My only trip to UK prior to Christmas is for the Tingle Creek, although no flights booked yet, and i will be in Sweden on 18th December for a 3 week break, returning to Germany on 7th (6th is a holiday). I fully expect to be here in 2025, although it could be my last full year here.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Lucky Luciano posting on my behalf of Andrew in Sweden.
Good morning Guys,
A decent afternoon of racing for a Sunday, including a graded race at Naas featuring the return of Marine Nationale, a G1 in Germany with 4 English based hopefuls, a few listed races in France and a couple of group races in Italy where Archie Watson and Andrew Balding have a runner.
I'm off to the course at Riem, München later, primarily to watch the Grosser Allianz Preis von Bayern, a lucky race for me as i was there for Alpinista in 2021 and Junko last year (didn't go in 2022) although they were easy enough to pick (4/5f and 13/10 2nd f). A good field this afternoon and much more open than recent years, but i think the French can win again with the very consistent Marquisat trained by Andre Fabre. He was only beaten a nose by Junko at Chantilly in his penultimate run and finished 3rd to Goliath at Longchamp LTO, both runs on heavy. The going at München is generally soft this time of the year, although we haven't had an excess of rain in recent weeks, so it shouldn't it heavy. Charlie Appleby's Ancient Wisdom will probably be favourite and his runners to well in Germany, but i think Marquisat will come from off the pace in the long straight.
Betfair exchange doesn't cover München but the Sportsbook does and live video is available on Deutscher galopp.
My previous selection a couple of weeks ago, Maranoa Charlie was well beaten at Saint Cloud, but anyone who backed it (including me) would have known at a very early stage of the race that he couldn't win. Went off like the proverbial scalded cat and was 10L clear at the bend, but it was clearly obvious he couldn't keep that pace up on heavy going, i doubt even Frankel could. He finished well beaten and tired in 4th, but this run can be ignored, he's better than this.
Stewart/Glasgow
Thanks for the supporting posts, sure i got it wrong, but i'm no different to anyone on here, i win and lose, although i don't post tosh or exaggerated claims.
Trusty
Thanks for your selections.
Moving on to our Fellowship Racing syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad was sold at the recent HIT sales and reached 24,000; considering we paid 12,000 last October a decent profit and almost 17,000 in prize money. We had him for 11 races, winning 3, beaten a head in another and was only twice out of the first 4, going up 14lb, testament to a fantastic job Dan and Claire Kübler did. He will be racing in Bahrain for his new owners; i'm sure they will have a lot of fun with him.
We bought another at the same sale a couple of days later, a 2 year old Twilight Son colt, Calibos, a 4 race maiden. We paid 16,000 this time, so after expenses a return on our initial investment, including VAT, although taking the year overall, i suspect a small loss. Having said this, we are not in it for the money.
As with Salamanca Lad, we feel there will be improvement next year stepped up in trip. Still a colt, but is expected to be gelded tomorrow.
A busy few weeks of travel forthcoming, i'm off to Paris on Saturday for II Est Francais in the G1 Prix La Haye Jousselin at Auteuil the following day. I've never been to the course before, so i'm looking forward to it, although it will probably be my only visit there, in fact, if it wasn't for the horse i doubt i would ever go. I've already backed him AP for the KG, so hopefully he wins, although i will not be there to watch him. My only trip to UK prior to Christmas is for the Tingle Creek, although no flights booked yet, and i will be in Sweden on 18th December for a 3 week break, returning to Germany on 7th (6th is a holiday). I fully expect to be here in 2025, although it could be my last full year here.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Thanks for mentioning the German race Andrew, hadn't realised was on and as i like to back German horses in Germany managed to back the winner and the 4th, had related form, only for small bets at SP, watched on 356 site.
Glad your syndicate made a profit on Salamanca Lad, did well for you, hope the new horse does as well, will look it up later.
Glad your syndicate made a profit on Salamanca Lad, did well for you, hope the new horse does as well, will look it up later.
Good morning
Going to have a shot at Captain Morgs Chelt 2.55 for the in-form if they are going to win trainer. Although he looks the second string on jockey bookings, he was the second string in Dec 22 when he won. Back to hurdles of a favourable mark in a race where the trainers record is 2-1-4, he has to be worth a punt especially with his favoured good ground. There are only 3 other horses in the race that prefer good going Emailandy, Itso Fury and Hardy Boy. Currently 33/1 with Ladcrooks, OK and Billies, shorter elsewhere.
Going to have a shot at Captain Morgs Chelt 2.55 for the in-form if they are going to win trainer. Although he looks the second string on jockey bookings, he was the second string in Dec 22 when he won. Back to hurdles of a favourable mark in a race where the trainers record is 2-1-4, he has to be worth a punt especially with his favoured good ground. There are only 3 other horses in the race that prefer good going Emailandy, Itso Fury and Hardy Boy. Currently 33/1 with Ladcrooks, OK and Billies, shorter elsewhere.
Wonder if Andrew is taking the odds on Lossiemouth?
Lucky Luciano posting on behalf of Andrew In Sweden.
Good evening Guys.
Thank you for the posts.
Stewart, you obviously remembered my 'love affair' with Lossiemouth, and in answer to your question, yes i did, at slight odds on and against (night before) although not to the level i have bet on her in the past, but a nice win nevertheless.
I've followed Lossiemouth ever since i was reviewed French form when i was trying to find an AP bet for the Triumph Hurdle, before she even left France (put up on my 2023 thread) and i've backed her in every race since moving to WPM. Her, and Constitution Hill have certainly won me a few bob over time.
With such a small field and the two main protagonists that like to come from off the pace, there was always the risk of a tactical race, and although i thought Beacon Edge would give them a tow into the race, i didn't expect such a crawl that must have had IR players queuing up to take odds on the mare who has a very good tun of foot.
As a sighter for Cheltenham, it didn't tell us anything other than what we already knew. She still tends to be a bit keen, unable to settle at times (reasoning for the jumping error 4 out) but it doesn't stop her winning. A decent enough first run of the season, and her first in open graded company, so the Christmas hurdle could be interesting if she goes there.
In my opinion, she's a 2 miler, all speed, but stamina isn't an issue and she has the class to win over further. I've always been of the opinion she would beat State Man, possibly Sir Gino as well, but not the Constitution Hill of old, so any AP bets for the champion hurdle are pointless until the latter has had a run. As much as i like the mare, the current odds of 7/4 are way too low, although come the day with CH retired for example, i may be singing from a different hymn sheet.
She has more to do to be mentioned in the same breath as Annie Power, but this is possible considering she's only a 5 year old, and it will take a very good one to beat her next March (and i don't mean the mares, she will not be going for it).
Changing topic, i'm off to London on Friday afternoon, meeting up with a couple of friends i often go racing with (including the poster Lucky Luciano) at Sandown on Saturday. It's a decent card, not only the Tingle Creek, but the Henry VIII novice (L'eau Du Sud) and a quality listed race (East India Dock) although i'm not necessarily suggesting the latter couple will win. I haven't seen Ed Thompson since Newmarket earlier in the year, so hopefully i can recover COT losses with him on that day.
Our new syndicate horse, Calibos has settled in well at Dan and Claire Küblers; he's been gelded and the few remaining shares were quickly taken up. Fingers crossed for next year.
Agouti Bear is currently enjoying her winter break over in Kildare.
Only just over 2 weeks in the office left for me this year, back to Linköping on the 18th and staying there until 7th January (6th is a public holiday in many European countries).
Good luck and have a nice evening all.
Good evening Guys.
Thank you for the posts.
Stewart, you obviously remembered my 'love affair' with Lossiemouth, and in answer to your question, yes i did, at slight odds on and against (night before) although not to the level i have bet on her in the past, but a nice win nevertheless.
I've followed Lossiemouth ever since i was reviewed French form when i was trying to find an AP bet for the Triumph Hurdle, before she even left France (put up on my 2023 thread) and i've backed her in every race since moving to WPM. Her, and Constitution Hill have certainly won me a few bob over time.
With such a small field and the two main protagonists that like to come from off the pace, there was always the risk of a tactical race, and although i thought Beacon Edge would give them a tow into the race, i didn't expect such a crawl that must have had IR players queuing up to take odds on the mare who has a very good tun of foot.
As a sighter for Cheltenham, it didn't tell us anything other than what we already knew. She still tends to be a bit keen, unable to settle at times (reasoning for the jumping error 4 out) but it doesn't stop her winning. A decent enough first run of the season, and her first in open graded company, so the Christmas hurdle could be interesting if she goes there.
In my opinion, she's a 2 miler, all speed, but stamina isn't an issue and she has the class to win over further. I've always been of the opinion she would beat State Man, possibly Sir Gino as well, but not the Constitution Hill of old, so any AP bets for the champion hurdle are pointless until the latter has had a run. As much as i like the mare, the current odds of 7/4 are way too low, although come the day with CH retired for example, i may be singing from a different hymn sheet.
She has more to do to be mentioned in the same breath as Annie Power, but this is possible considering she's only a 5 year old, and it will take a very good one to beat her next March (and i don't mean the mares, she will not be going for it).
Changing topic, i'm off to London on Friday afternoon, meeting up with a couple of friends i often go racing with (including the poster Lucky Luciano) at Sandown on Saturday. It's a decent card, not only the Tingle Creek, but the Henry VIII novice (L'eau Du Sud) and a quality listed race (East India Dock) although i'm not necessarily suggesting the latter couple will win. I haven't seen Ed Thompson since Newmarket earlier in the year, so hopefully i can recover COT losses with him on that day.
Our new syndicate horse, Calibos has settled in well at Dan and Claire Küblers; he's been gelded and the few remaining shares were quickly taken up. Fingers crossed for next year.
Agouti Bear is currently enjoying her winter break over in Kildare.
Only just over 2 weeks in the office left for me this year, back to Linköping on the 18th and staying there until 7th January (6th is a public holiday in many European countries).
Good luck and have a nice evening all.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539