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Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread
Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread
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Replies: 556
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Yes best of luck Tom , i feel privileged to be posting on the owners thread
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Good evening Guys,
Hayden  Tom, a nice run by Slainte Mhath to finish 3rd beaten less than a length (looked likely to win until tiring a little) and in atrocious conditions. Your EW paid out so no loss on the race and an enjoyable day at the races. On to this evening, i was tempted to put up the favourite Dark Dreamer (Kempton 8.00) as a lay selection earlier (and still might) even allowing for being well bred and raced with a low handicap mark in mind last year. I also think he needs to step up in trip, the 6f may be a bit sharp, but irrespective if this, i think the lightly raced maiden Whiteley Bay could be worth a small EW stake. Has run well in better class off higher marks, including over CD in her penultimate race. Currently trading @ 8.20 for the win and 2.4 (3/TBP) that could return a small profit. Good luck and have a nice evening all |
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UL AIS
Seems a big monster who appreciated getting going Hayden You won't feel that privileged hen they start charging you for entry |
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Cheers everyone, it absolutely chucked it down before and during her race. The jockeys were taken in and asked what they wanted to do because of how bad it was.
She ran really well and was around the right horses. I think you can mark the winner up as he was one of only a few all day, that came from that far back. Onwards to Thirsk on the 20th, all being well. |
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Yes, well done Dealer. She done you all proud. Good luck at Thirsk!
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Good evening Guys,
Haven't had a bet today, but laying the favourite, Giant (7.00). Won well LTO, but the form is poor, everything that has run since has been beaten. It was on Polytrack, although has run OK on Tapeta. Led, but there's pace close to him this evening. Up in class. Previously run off marks of 73-75, but now up 6 lb. Trainer and jockey in form that tempers a lay bet a little, but i don't see him as 2/1 fav. Risky as he's improved for gelding, but certainly not one to back in my eyes. Interesting the trainer had the sire and dam. Good luck and have a nice evening all. Madhatters Build like an outside toilet, will probably go chasing in 2027. Betfair forumites will get discount  |
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Beg to differ then as had £120 @ 9/4, difference is I can provide an actual photo of the bet, win or lose, can you?
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Post the photo then laughing man?
As said win or lose, makes no difference when telling the truth? |
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Half a weeks pension for you tbh Ikea but will not mock the photo of your bet!!
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N1 Andrew.
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ROFL, DR Davey Jones..........Last Train To Clarksville or I'M A Believer..........at least he won a race despite just an honour of a Doctorate and a made up group.........if you get my drift!!
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gdrj
Thank you. 3rd @ 2/1f. Broke well as expected from stall 1, but up in class and weight, and as mentioned his winning form was poor anyway. Changing topic, a couple of links : https://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/daniel-and-claire-kubler (they give a mention to our syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad) https://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/bettingpeople-claire-dan-kubler/ |
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Why change topics instead of a photo of the bet?
Getting to you that you are well exposed and maybe you should have continued to pretend to ignore the bullsh!t biography challenge? 1st May Munich, good meeting on your doorstep for a meet up with Dave Branigan and about 8 others from DLR though including Frau Simona Eicholz, can maybe make it? |
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Glentoby in a drunken rage again
Give it a rest you spiteful, lying old maggot ffs |
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The only one being got at tobymug is you
You don't even see it through your infected attitude |
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If you or the low intellect morons got the hint madmutt you would realise how foolish you have all been but after so many years there is little hope for you sad losers!!! HTH
Btw still here in the UK if you are man enough to repeat what you said about my wife or the Cherchi family, as said, Sardo's NEVER forget?!! |
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& no one will forget what you said about Smirf
A bigger man than tobymug could ever aspire to We're quite happy being hopeless So move on You is nicht required |
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Good afternoon Guys from a warm and pleasant München city centre,
A high of 27c is forecast later (similar tomorrow and Monday) but conversely 6 race meetings cancelled in GB/Ireland in the past couple of days due to rain soaked ground. I knew there was a good reason to leave there back in time. I wasn't overly enamoured with the race cards this afternoon, although i'm interested in a race at Auteuil, the G2 Prix Murat Chase (13.15) the 3rd leg in a series of 4 trial races preceding the Prix Gand Steeplechase De Paris (French Gold Cup) in May, featuring the Kauto Star Novices winner, II Est Francais, albeit odds will be very restrictive. Readers know i'm a fan of him, even before Kempton LTO (i put him up for the race) and even stated he will not be beaten this season. I expect him to win (backed) but there are a few considerations at least for backers, he hasn't run since Boxing day, first time over the exterior course (with a couple of tricky ditch fences in the back straight) and he's conceding weight to the field. Irrespective of these, it's a weaker field than expected and he should win cosily and enhance his claims to probably be the best middle-distance chaser around (in my opinion). At a more realistic betting level, i noticed an ex-German flat runner at Chelmsford (4.05) Roxanne who is unbeaten in 3 runs. I've been to München race track (Riem) a few times in recent years, albeit only when there's a decent favourite to back in a group race, the likes of Alpinista, Nations Pride and Junko being typical examples, but i wouldn't say i follow the sport over here; i may know the best of them, but i wouldn't have a clue about run-of-the mill handicappers. I checked through Roxanne's form earlier and didn't see anything that would indicate she's decent (only a handful of winners among all of them). Never raced on the AW, a small step up in trip, take out the outsider and there's only 6lb between the field with a few lightly raced runners open to any amount of improvement. It's difficult to know if she's well handicapped on GB debut, but 6/4 is short enough for one with a few question marks, so i will be a layer. I will not be watching much racing later anyway, instead, joining the mass exodus of locals on the S8 S-Bahn heading for the pretty lakeside towns of Starnberg or Herrsching to soak up the sun. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. |
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Hugh Taylor has tipped Roxanne.
Here's an extract from his comments; The post-race comments of her rider, the highly-experienced Andrasch Starke (whose winning CV includes most of the top Group 1 middle-distance events across Europe), were especially interesting: “I think she belongs in Listed class…I thought she was a black-type filly from her first start and also from her homework…she only does what is necessary.” |
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Hope he doesn't win by a big nose for your sake Andrew, good luck!
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PHS
Hugh Taylor also put up Salamanca Lad . Seriously, i agree with him, she's not easy to assess, but you could question her last race win. I actually thought Strong Impact could go well, in her 2 runs after debut she finished runner-up to a couple now rated 104 and 96 respectively and has won since. If she was 5/2, i may not have laid her, but she's half those odds. If Roxanne wins, i'm calling the Police Stewart Thanks and . I don't care if it's a short or long nose as long as he wins. |
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Stewart
Thanks and . I don't care if it's a short or long nose as long as he wins.Presume you mean, as long as She loses! |
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Stewart
I thought you were referring to the 'Gallic' long nose for II Est Francais |
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PU
Something must be amiss, jumped really well up to that point  |
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Not PU, but coasted home in last place (out of camera view). That's racing
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Well done Andrew, never looked like getting there.
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WD Andrew.
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Good sunny afternoon Guys,
Another warm day in München (27c forecast later) so i will be off to one of the lakes west of the city after lunch, have a relaxing afternoon in the sun, a beer or 3 and watch the world go by. I may even take a free day from the office tomorrow, Summer has arrived early here, although it will be halted by much reduced temperatures in mid-week. Stewart/PHS Thanks for the posts, it's not often i beat Hugh Taylor, but yesterday was one such occasion with the lay of Roxanne. Drifted in the betting late on, hardly surprising, 6/4 was way too short; bookies obviously hoping punters would be influenced by an unbeaten filly going for a 4-timer ridden by Ryan Moore. To be fair, she stayed on well and may do better stepped up in trip, but i doubt she will progress beyond handicaps, although it's early days of course. The lay was profitable, but not so my bet on II Est Francais who was very disappointing at Auteuil, although it may transpire there was a physical issue, reported by James Reveley and confirmed by a vet post-race. At least it would reinforce my view that lack of a recent run wasn't the reason for such a poor run, he faded very quickly before 2 out, in fact my initial thought was he had been PU. I wonder if he over-reached at the open ditch (10th fence) that is 5.5 metres in length; he jumped it superbly, maybe too good, going from 4th to 2nd place in-flight. If there is a physical issue, a run in the Prix Grand Steeplechase De Paris (French Gold Cup) in 6 weeks could be unlikely and i'm not sure i will want to back him there anyway, as much as i rate the horse. Since moving to the Tom/Noel George stable his record was 7/8, without question the best in France and in my opinion would probably beat the best middle distance chasers in Ireland, he's the best jumper of a fence i've seen since Sprinter Sacre. Irrespective of this, racing makes fools of us at the best of times, me included, and i've been in the game long enough to be surprised, but never shocked. Mind you, it could have been worse, i mentioned on here a while back, i was even considering going to Paris for the Auteuil/Longchamp weekend, so it would have turned out an expensive trip. On to this afternoon, decent cards in abundance considering it's a Sunday, with group races in Ireland and France; even the GB cards look competitive. A couple of lays i have in mind, the first is Charlie Appleby's Military Order in the G2 Prix D'Harcourt at Longchamp (4.00). A fancy for the 2023 Epsom Derby after winning the trial stakes at Lingfield, but finished last of the 14 runners; obviously not his true running, but there was never an explanation for his poor from the trainer. He wouldn't be the first horse to run poorly on the course. Only won in listed class, never run on heavy going, or around a right hand bend. Up to G2 class this afternoon and it's not a bad field with several group race winners including G1 Feed The Flame. Like Roxanne yesterday, Military Order at 6/4 is too short and i will be a layer, although liquidity for French racing is very poor on here early on. At Exeter (4.00) Imperial Saint is another who has yet to race on heavy ground, although it may not be an issue in this case. Won his maiden well enough, but was beaten off his current mark of 119 on handicap debut. Down in class a little, but top weight and only 6 lb between the field on RPR. Up in trip, although i think he may do better over further (won a P2P over 24f). Currently 2/1 (3.50) and i will be laying him. Ryan Moore has several rides that will be short odds at Leopardstown, but i wouldn't want to be lumping on Chantilly in the handicap (16.05). He may well win, but backers need a little faith at odds on 2.34. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. |
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Two more nice lays landed Andrew, well done, was out myself most of Sunday so only saw first couple of races at Leopardstown, just catching up with results. A good priced treble for O'Brien and Moore, but Hefferman landing a huge double now he's gone freelance, beating a couple of odds on O'Brien horses must have pleased him no doubt.
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ttt
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Good afternoon Guys,
Thanks Stewart and PHS. A very busy working week culminating in a few hours in the office, but it's a beautiful sunny day (expected high of 25c here) so i'm leaving after posting this. A decent card, albeit a tricky one at Aintree with 4 Graded races and Britain/Irelands' answer to the race that stops a nation, the Grand National of course. Not a race i really look forward to these days, i'm all for animal welfare, and i preferred it back in time to be honest, but i can't have both. I may watch it and if i do play, that will be a small stake anyway, will probably go with Vanillier who was runner-up (beaten 2.25L) last year conceding a lb to Corach Rambler who reopposes on 9lb worse terms. He doesn't win so often , in fact his last was in November 2021, but as with a few in the field, i suspect he's trained solely with this race in mind. Best priced 16/1 with the books and a win 4/TBP bet could yield a profit. The remaining cards are ordinary at best and there wasn't anything that jumped off the page when i looked earlier, in fact, i was more interested in tomorrow's group race card at Longchamp. I thought the likely favourite One More Stroke (Newcastle 13.30) could be a lay, even though he's on a hat-trick and never finished out of the first 2 in 3 runs under rules and a couple of P2P's. His wins were in novice class and he was left clear 2 out in his previous run (may still have won). The form is average, although he will improve, but off a handicap debut mark of 115, up in class, never run on heavy and in a decent field where only the rag can be ignored, i wouldn't want to be backing him at 7/4. I will be a layer. Latest news on my syndicate horse Salamanca Lad, he's been entered at Chelmsford (18.00) (0-65) next Thursday, up in trip to 10f that we feel is what he needs. Top weight 9-11, off an unchanged mark of 67 from his previous run at Southwell (RPR 72). Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. |
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Well done on the Lay Andrew.
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Good morning Guys,
Another beautiful Bavarian day (26c expected) so an early-ish post, then i'm out for the day, although no specific plans at the moment. EMR Thank you. The lay selection One More Stroke (drifted from 15/8 on course to 9/4) raced prominently, but when the pace quickened after the penultimate flight, he didn't find anything. Faded to be last of the 3 finishers, although may have been 4th but for the fall of From The Clouds. On to this afternoon, typical Sunday afternoon NH cards, but a decent group race card at Longchamp and a G3 at Dusseldorf, albeit without any GB/Irish involvement at the latter. Staying at Longchamp, i fancy a couple to win, albeit sensible stakes, starting with the 3 raced unbeaten gelding Bright Picture in the G3 Prix Noaillles (13.33). His debut form over 8f at Deauville reads well with the 2nd, 5th and 6th all winning since and went on to win easily at Chantilly, then beating a couple of this afternoon's rivals, Calandagan and Trafalgar Square (0.75L and 8.75L respectively) at St Cloud LTO. Calandagan was the 9/5f after a 10L win at Chantilly with Bright Picture 13/5 and there was never much between them in the race, both racing prominently in 2nd and 3rd, but the latter had 2L to make up 400 metres out before a sustained duel on the run-in, and he stayed on the stronger, going away at the finish, with the rest of the field well strung out. I can't see Trafalgar Square winning, he looked very one paced. Only a lb between the main two on French ratings (converted to 102 v 101) as you would expect. Bright Picture has the better draw in 3 and i think we will remain unbeaten. Currently best priced @ 6/5 with 365. Karl Burke sends another unbeaten runner over, Golden West (10/1) who may run into a place. In the Prix Fontainebleau (15.25) i'm reluctantly going against my favourite French trainer/jockey combination (Christopher Head/Aurelien Lemaitre) and backing Beauvatier a horse i've put up before and backed on Arc Sunday last year. A 1-1-1-1-3 record over 5f, 6f and 7f on 4 different courses, but didn't get the run of the race when hampered behind Rousallion (3nd fav for the 2000 Guineas) but stayed on well. Steps up in trip to 8f, but this shouldn't be an issue, nor will the going. Has the likely favourite Ramadan to beat, this one was impressive at Saint Cloud, but it was a small field and he was 30/100 to win. Based on converted ratings, he's 110, 2 lb higher than Ramadan and i feel he's the better horse; not without a chance in the French 2000 guineas next month. It looks a match with the 11/10 favourite and a general 11/8 with the books. I may look for a lay selection over lunch later. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. Changing topic, i often post aerospace news here; the link below is a German start-up company, based at the Air-Tech Campus in Wessling (Oberpfaffenhofen Airport) where i work (DLR and Deutsche Aircraft). I know a few guys over there, including a couple of Brits. If they can perfect the high performance Lithium battery technology we could see them in the air daily in 2027. Part of their marketing is aimed at the air-taxi sector, although there are many worldwide companies studying similar concepts, including Airbus. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/04/12/inside-lilium-the-german-company-trying-to-revolutionize-air-travel.html |
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Rousallion (2nd fav for the 2000 Guineas)
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Doesn’t want to hear the word soft or anything near it according to Richard Hannon Jnr….
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Thank you Andrew, will have a look at your selections.
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Good morning Guys,
A couple of selections at Longchamp last Sunday, both finishing 2nd after looking likely winners at the 200 metre pole, but were simply not good enough. Bright Picture was matched at 1.03 IR, crazy odds considering he was never in the lead. Didn't break well, but i doubt it made a difference to the result. As for Beauvatier, ran well enough and probably needed the race, but couldn't reel in a fitter winner who made all. Both will probably go for the French guineas next month. On to today, i arrived at Gatwick late last night and will be heading to Chelmsford this afternoon with the poster Lucky Luciano to watch our syndicate horse Salamanca Lad run (18.00). A small, 5 runner field and we have a progressive odds-on handicapper going for a 4-timer to beat. First time on Polytrack, steps up in trip to 10f and although we're hopeful, top weight and conceding plenty to the favourite will not be easy. My first race watching as an owner, so obviously looking forward to the experience, win or lose. I will be backing Golden Ace at Cheltenham(3.50) to win the stake on our runner, an improving mare who could be destined for better things after winning at Cheltenham and this line of form (2nd and 4th have won grade 1's at Aintree and Fairyhouse since) is more than enough to win this listed class even though it's a decent field, but she's priced accordingly. At more sensible betting odds, i think the Andre Fabre trained Alcantor can win the Craven at Newmarket (15.35). A G3 winner at Saint Cloud and runner-up in the G1 Grand Criterium behind Sunway at the same course last year. He was odds-on for the race and the form could be questioned, but heavy going may not have been ideal. Alexis Puchet takes over from regular jockey Mickael Barzalona, but he's more than capable; currently 3rd in the French championship and a strike rate of 31% in the previous 14 days. Andre has a good record with runners in England and i will have a small win bet, currently odds of 4.40 on here. 2000 Guineas ante-post backers of City Of Troy (me included) will be watching a couple of the runners with interest, Eben Shaddad, and to a lessor extent Haatem, as this pair were beaten by him last year. Good luck and have a nice Thursday all. EMR Thanks. Formoftheace Thanks, but i only mentioned Rousillion in context of the French race with Beauvatier. |
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Thank you ANDREW
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